S2106/455738 Administration www.africa-confidential.com 12 April 2013 - Vol 54 - N° 8 MALI/FRANCE BLUE LINES The campaign stretches out When Uhuru Kenyatta was sworn in as President of Kenya on 9 April, his supporters celebrated a double victory: his narrow win over Raila Odinga and the defeat of Western France commits to a long war just three months after launching its biggest detractors who predicted that his military operation in Africa in 50 years indictment by the International Criminal Court would undermine he official version is that France’s Mali Economic Community of West African States Kenya’s diplomatic position. The operation has achieved all its objectives playing the front-line role. France would reverse has been the case. T– the expulsion of jihadist forces from provide logistical and intelligence support Uganda’s President Yoweri main northern towns and the destruction and some European Union countries would Museveni led the charge at the of several bases in the Adrar des Ifoghas retrain the national army. inauguration: ‘I want to salute the mountains – apart from the rescue of seven Under the original plan, France was Kenyan voters...on the rejection of hostages still held in the region. This week not going to send combat troops. Hollande the blackmail by the International the withdrawal began, with 100 or so French had said categorically that there would be Criminal Court.’ Museveni, whose soldiers going home. France had airlifted no boots on the ground, although security own government is locked in 4,000 troops to Mali and sent another 2,000 experts suspected that French special forces battle with Western governments from its bases in Chad and Côte d’Ivoire. would continue the search for Western over the freezing of over US$300 Initially, French President François hostages. After Hollande sent the troops million of aid funds due to claims of Hollande’s government had said that all on 11 January to block the jihadist advance government corruption, reinforced French troops would be out after elections towards Mopti, his ministers gave differing his point: ‘the usual opinionated were organised: they are scheduled for July. reasons for the intervention, ranging from and arrogant actors’ were trying However, Foreign Minister Laurent the need to protect Mali’s sovereignty and to ‘install leaders of their choice in Fabius, who has been sceptical about the to reunite the country, to driving out armed Africa’ with the help of the ICC. operation from the start, announced on a Islamists and fighting a terrorist threat to Since Kenyatta’s election, 5 April visit to Bamako that France would France and the rest of Europe. Western governments have been maintain a ‘support force’ of 1,000 soldiers Fabius emphasised the temporary nature backtracking on their threat to in Mali on a ‘permanent basis’. This was of the French deployment. Having gone to sever all but ‘essential contacts’ France’s first public commitment to a long- such lengths last year to differentiate itself with the presidency. United term military presence. It was more forceful from former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s States Ambassador Robert coming from the cautious Fabius rather model of Françafrique policy, Fabius wanted Godec met Kenyatta last week than the more bullish Defence Minister, Hollande’s Parti Socialiste government to and European ambassadors have Jean-Yves le Drian. make a clear break with that legacy. At the also sought meetings to resolve same time, Hollande and Le Drian, one of his any misunderstandings. We hear NOT SO TEMPORARY closest allies, said that French troops would that British Prime Minister David Until then, Hollande’s ministers had insisted remain as long as necessary, until Malian Cameron now wants a policy of that this was an emergency operation and sovereignty was restored and the jihadists constructive engagement: Kenya that it would be temporary. After ejecting defeated. They said that there was no point is Britain’s biggest trading partner jihadists from northern Mali, the plan in sending troops to Mali unless they were in the region and will be a hub for went, French troops would hand over the able to restore and consolidate security. East Africa’s fast-growing oil and job to Malian soldiers and the Mission Budgetary pressure, concern about the gas industry. Relations will be internationale de soutien au Mali (Misma), longer-term success of the intervention critical for Britain’s efforts to help which drew in forces from a dozen west and local issues in France meant ministers stabilise Somalia, where Kenya has African countries. The resolution approved were careful to avoid any commitment to a deployed several thousand troops. by the United Nations Security Council permanent presence. Reporting of the war last December envisaged troops from the by French and other international media MALI/FRANCE 2 CAR 3 CÔTE D’IVOIRE 4 ETHIOPIA 5 SOUTH AFRICA 6 Boycotts and Toeing the party MOZamBIQUE 8 Training regime Lords of misrule Property of Asempa Limited As the military intervention Confusion reigned at the masks online SOmaLIA/PUNTLAND 10 continues, new problems summit on the Central Many independents are The government tries to arise, from the army’s POINTERS 12 African Republic’s future standing in the local increase internet access broken chain of command and the new rulers could elections but that doesn’t and mobile telephony to the rainy-season not halt the prolonged lessen the political divide. while restricting free elections. plunder of the capital. speech and the media. Prepared for on 14/04/2013 at 19:25. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S2106/455738 Administration or quit without defeating the jihadists? In declining rapidly due to the economy. AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL fact, French strategic planners and their The experiences of the last six weeks 73 Farringdon Rd, London EC1M 3JQ, UK political directors have been refining their have confirmed this analysis. Despite the Tel: 44(0)20 7831 3511 approach as events develop, so as to get a killing in late February of Abdel Hamid Editor: Patrick Smith clear sense of the likely prospects. Abou Zeid, a prominent commander from Associate Editor: Gillian Lusk In mid-January, Hollande had to set Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Deputy Editor: Andrew Weir Managing Editor: Clare Tauben aside the assumption that Misma would other key Islamist leaders are still at large, Website Editor: Juliet Amissah take the lead. The immediate threat then including Iyad ag Ghali, the founder of Published fortnightly since 1960 was the rapid jihadist advance towards Ansar Eddine (AC Vol 54 No 3). After a 25 issues per year – Proprietors: Asempa Ltd. Mopti and the key Sévaré military airbase huge manhunt in the Ifoghas massif in the ISSN 0044-6483 (Print) ISSN 1467-6338 (Online) in central Mali (AC Vol 54 No 2). Once Sahara, there is no sign of the hostages. All material is copyright Africa Confidential. French troops were on the ground and the Meanwhile, the Mouvement pour l’unicité For the latest edition online, go to: militants in retreat, they pressed forward et le jihad en Afrique de l’ouest (MUJAO) Africa-Confidential.com. to end Islamist control of northern towns, continues to mount spectacular attacks in right up to Kidal, Tessalit and Aguelhok in Gao and Timbuktu and launched a mine was carefully controlled in northern Mali. the central Sahara. attack between Ansongo and Ménaka, Journalists were embedded with the By mid-February, French military south-east of Gao. French troops and very little reporting has planners were reflecting on what the long- come from the rapidly moving front line. term challenge would be. They knew that WHY FRANCE IS STAYING ON A month ago, security experts were the struggle to hunt down militant groups The French military has also had the predicting that French forces would hiding in the desert or in the Sahel bush chance to get the measure of Misma, pull back to existing bases elsewhere in near Gao would be slow and difficult. which is likely to be restructured as a UN West Africa: in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Sporadic attacks by suicide bombers and force later this year. The African force now Burkina Faso and Chad, from where they land mines would continue, while finding has 6,300 troops in Mali and its numbers could fly back if Misma needed emergency the hostages could take months. In spite could reach 10,000. The first 200 Ivorian reinforcement. Security experts and the of the quick early successes, the planners soldiers, newly retrained by France, will wider public in France remained obsessed realised their troops might have to stay arrive before the end of April. by parallels with Afghanistan and Iraq. on much longer – to the frustration of a The capability of the different national Would France get stuck in the quicksands gover n ment whose popu la r it y at home wa s contingents varies. The Nigeriens are well regarded and units have now arrived from countries with long experience of TRAINING REGIME peacekeeping and intervention elsewhere, such as Senegal. Mauritania, previously As the military operation in Mali continues, fresh complications arise. Early reports from reluctant, has also indicated that it may the European trainers suggest that progress in restoring the discipline and effectiveness provide troops; at least they would of the Malian army will be slow. The first batch of 2,500 soldiers started a course at already be trained for desert warfare. Koulikoro, 60 kilometres from Bamako, on 2 April.