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Presentation 3A.6 A CASE STUDY OF THREE SEVERE TORNADIC STORMS IN ALBERTA, CANADA Max L. Dupilka University of Alberta, T6G2E3 Edmonton, AB Canada and Gerhard W. Reuter* 1. INTRODUCTION was the only case of an F4 tornado in Alberta during recorded history. The Holden and the Pine The Rocky Mountains are an impressive north- Lake tornados were both F3 cases. There were no south mountain barrier extending 2400 km from other recorded F3 tornadoes in Alberta during the Yukon to Texas. The impact on of the mountains is period 1983-2003. particularly evident in Alberta, whose boundaries We made a synoptic analysis of the three extend from 49° to 60° N and 120° to 110° W, with tornadic storms with an emphasis on the surface the southwestern border following the Continental moisture and storm tracks. The development of Divide (Fig.1). Central Alberta is highly susceptible these storms was compared to the conceptual to severe convection, having on average 52 days model for severe convection suggested by Smith with hail fall each summer (Smith et al. 1998). and Yau (1993a,b). They identified two stages Alberta thunderstorms that spawn tornadoes occur leading to the formation of severe convective far less frequently (Newark 1984; Bullas and storms. Stage 1 is characterized by clear skies in Wallace 1988). Hage (1994, 2003) compiled an subsiding air ahead of an approaching upper-level extensive tornado climatology starting from 1879. He ridge. A strong inversion in the lower troposphere found that on average 10 tornadoes occur over inhibits or “caps” any deep convection. Upper level Alberta each summer. A major mandate of a warming produces a minimal amount of weather forecasting office (like the Meteorological Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Services of Canada) is to issue timely warnings of There might be some shallow convection along severe storms so that appropriate safety measures the foothills as daytime heating removes the cap can be implemented. The forecasting of severe locally (Reuter and Nguyen 1993). Synoptic convective storms producing tornadoes will become pressure gradients favor a light westerly flow increasingly important as the populated areas of which transports low-level moisture away from the Alberta continue to expand. foothills. Weak to moderate upper-level winds are This study is focused on the evolution of three associated with relatively weak wind shear. severe convective storms that spawned tornadoes in Convective activity is limited to cumulus clouds Alberta. We chose the three convective storm cases and isolated thunderstorms along the foothills. that had the most intense tornadoes recorded during Stage 2 of the conceptual model begins once 1983-2003. The cases were: The Edmonton storm the upper-level ridge moves eastward and an of 31 July 1987 that resulted in 27 fatalities deaths upper-level trough approaches. Convection again and 250 million dollars of property damage (Bullas begins along the foothills during the day. However, and Wallace 1988; Charlton et al.1998), the Holden strong cooling aloft and surface heating combine storm of 29 July 1993 (Knott and Taylor 2000), and to form a large amount of CAPE. The synoptic the Pine Lake storm of 14 July 2000 that resulted in pressure gradient over the plains now favors an 12 fatalities and 13 million dollars property damage easterly or southeasterly flow which advects moist (Joe and Dudley 2000; Erfani et al. 2002). The air into the low-levels below the capping lid. There Edmonton tornado was classified as an F4 tornado is a continued buildup of latent energy forming a on the Fujita F-scale (Fujita 1981). The detailed “loaded gun” sounding. Localized convergence climatology of Alberta tornados compiled by Hage begins to break down the capping lid and vigorous (1990, 2003) showed that the Edmonton tornado convective storms form along the foothills. These cumulus towers move eastward with mid- _________________ tropospheric westerlies. The strong mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of the advancing trough * Corresponding authors address: Dr. Gerhard W. combines with the intensifying low-level Reuter, Department of Earth and Atmospheric southeasterly flow causing strong vertical wind Sciences, University of Alberta, 1-26 Earth Sciences shear. A major consequence of the vertical shear Building, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G2E3, Canada is that the convection becomes organized into E-mail: [email protected] long-lasting multicell or supercell storms. 1 60 N suggested that a moisture front triggers thunderstorm development. A moisture front, referred to as a dryline (Fujita 1958), is a synoptic- scale feature that initiates and organizes summertime convection (e.g. Rhea 1966; Ziegler 1993). The typical criterion for a dryline is a dewpoint gradient of 10 °C/100 km or more (Schaefer 1974). In addition, the strong dewpoint gradient must last for at least 6 h. The 12 °C isodrosotherm (corresponding to vapor mixing ratio of 9 g kg-1) was found useful to locate the dryline position (Schaefer 1973). In the dry air, temperature soundings typically display dry Edmonton adiabatic lapse rates through the lower troposphere (Schaefer, 1986), whereas the moist Holden air tends to show a low-level capping inversion. Above the capping lid the air can be well-mixed. YQF Pine Lake The capping lid allows for the buildup of a large CAPE. Thunderstorms that break through the cap YYC can result in supercells. Although the moisture gradient across the dryline is large, the virtual potential temperature contrast is generally small (Ziegler, 1993). A diurnal variation of the moisture gradient often exists (Rhea, 1966) with the 49 N afternoon gradient stronger than the early morning 120 W 115 W 110 W gradient. Continuing increases in computing power have allowed for a steady improvement of the resolution of numerical weather prediction, Fig. 1. Location of surface weather observing physical parameterization and initialization. Even stations (dots) within the province of Alberta. The so, numerical prediction models cannot resolve squares show the sites of the Edmonton, Holden, the atmosphere to the small spatial scales of and Pine Lake storms, and the circles show the individual thunderstorms. Numerical prediction of cities of Red Deer (YQF) and Calgary (YYC). individual thunderstorms and tornadoes will remain problematic (e.g. Brooks et al. 1992). Thus Supercells tend to form in huge CAPE identifying the key mesoscale and synoptic-scale conditions and strong veering occurs below cloud features in the thermodynamic and wind fields that base level (Chisholm and Renick 1972). The focus control the outbreak of severe convection can be of our research is on stage two of development useful for forecasting severe thunderstorms. which results in severe thunderstorm outbreaks. Smith and Yau (1993a,b) outline four conditions which are associated with the occurrence of 2. SYNOPTIC STORM ENVIRONMENT severe storms: a large amount of CAPE, a capping inversion allowing the build up latent Table 1 lists the beginning and end times of energy, large wind shear, and a trigger to break the three thunderstorms which spawned each of the cap to release the latent energy. These the tornadoes. The times for touching the ground ingredients are similar to those identified by other were: 2100-2200 UTC for the Edmonton Tornado, researchers (e.g. Fawbush et al 1951; Miller 0345–0405 UTC for the Holden Tornado, and 1972). Synoptic features for the three 0045-0115 UTC for the Pine Lake Tornado. The thunderstorm events will be compared to 0000 UTC synoptic charts were chosen for the determine the validity of Smith and Yau’s diagnostic analyses of the three storms. The Pine conceptual model. Lake thunderstorm was well developed at 0000 A focus of our storm analysis is the evolution UTC. The Edmonton thunderstorm was still active of the surface moisture field. Schaefer (1986) 2 at 0000 UTC with the tornado dissipating. The and Holden storm was southerly while the Pine Holden thunderstorm was developing at 0000 UTC Lake storm had a southwest direction. (Knott and Taylor 2000) with the tornado occurring At 850 mb a trough, or low pressure area, was later. over central Alberta for both the Edmonton (Fig. The 500 mb charts valid for 0000 UTC for the 2b) and Holden storms (Fig. 2d). This feature Edmonton, Pine Lake and Holden cases are would maintain an easterly flow into the storm depicted in Fig. 2. All three cases show a trough areas throughout the events. Meanwhile the Pine located over central British Columbia and a Lake case showed a trough over extreme eastern leading ridge extending over Saskatchewan. The Alberta, well to the east of the storm location (Fig. synoptic pattern was consistent with the Smith and 2f). The location of this trough resulted in a north Yau model, which describes an approaching upper flow across central Alberta. All three cases level trough and a ridge moving east of Alberta. showed a baroclinic zone over central Alberta. The The wind speeds at this level over central Alberta 850 mb temperature gradient over the baroclinic were similar in all three cases, ranging from 23 to zone was about 3-4 °C /100 km. 29 m s-1. The wind direction during the Edmonton TABLE 1. A comparison between the Edmonton, Holden, and Pine Lake Tornadoes. The parameters are described in the text. Edmonton Holden Pine Lake Tornado intensity (Fujita scale) F4 F3 F3 Maximum hail size (cm) 10 8 4 Number of fatalities 27 0 12 Insured property damage 250 3 13 ($ million) Start time of tornadic storm 1900 UTC 0100 UTC 2000
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