Institute for Catastrophic Institut de Prévention Loss Reduction des Sinistres Catastrophiques Building resilient communities Construction de resilient communities Canadians at risk: Our exposure to natural hazards Canadian Assessment of Natural Hazards Project February 2010 Canadians at risk: Our exposure to natural hazards Canadian Assessment of Natural Hazards Project Authors Lydia Dotto Paul Joe Ernest Opoku-Boateng Luc Duchesne Brenda Jones Kevin Schenk David Etkin Grace Koshida Ingrid Stefanovic Elianna Jaffit Brigitte Leblon Brian Stocks Edited by David Etkin Disaster and Emergency Management York University, Toronto, Canada February 2010 ICLR research paper series – number 48 Published by Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction 20 Richmond Street East, Suite 210 Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5C 2R9 This material may be copied for purposes related to the document as long as the author and copyright holder are recognized. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. Cover photos: Shutterstock and GetStock ISBN: 978-0-9784841-5-6 Copyright©2010 Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Vision: To develop a society more resilient to natural disasters, where sustained planning, investment and action results in more sustainable communities. EDITOR David Etkin AUTHORS Lydia Dotto Brigitte Leblon Luc Duchesne Ernest Opoku-Boateng David Etkin Kevin Schenk Elianna Jaffit Ingrid Stefanovic Paul Joe Brian Stocks Brenda Jones Grace Koshida iii Table of contents 1 Introduction 1.1 Preface 1 1.2 Disasters through History 2 1.3 Vulnerability 7 1.4 Ethics 14 2 Weather Hazards 2.1 Climate Change 17 2.2 Cold Snaps 24 2.3 Drought 32 2.4 Fire 41 2.5 Flood 49 2.6 Fog 57 2.7 Hail Storms 62 2.8 Heat Waves 68 2.9 Hurricane 77 2.10 Storm Surge 85 2.11 Thunderstorms 93 2.12 Tornadoes 100 2.13 Winter Storms 107 3 Geophysical Hazards 3.1 Earthquakes 116 3.2 Geomagnetic Storms 126 3.3 Landslides 132 3.4 Snow Avalanche 140 3.5 Tsunami 148 3.6 Volcanoes 155 4 Coping Strategies 4.1 Risk Assessment 163 4.2 Prediction 169 4.3 Adapting 175 4.4 Emergency Response 184 4.5 Remote Sensing 189 4.6 Insurance 197 4.7 DFAA 203 4.8 Mitigation 212 5 Summary 219 iv Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Preface We live in an unsafe world, one that’s filled with risks of various kinds. This book deals with those that result from natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods and tornadoes. It’s the third part of a project conducted by many of Canada’s leading scientists in the field of hazards research and is meant to inform people about the risks they face, some of the ways we adapt to them and actions we can take to reduce our vulnerability to them. The reader of this book will find much information on the hazards themselves, though it really just scratches the surface of our current knowledge. Perhaps the most important message, however, is that we are not just passive victims of natural hazards that are beyond our control; instead, we often make ourselves victims by our own actions. How vulnerable we are to the environment we live in is largely determined by the choices we have made in the past and will make in the future. The authors of this book hope that this information will enable people to make more informed choices and thus create a safer society. Dave Etkin, Editor Report #1: Etkin, D., Haque, C.E. and Brooks, G.R. (2003). An Assessment of Natural Hazards and Disasters in Canada. Natural Hazards. Kluwer, Vol. 28, No. 2-3. Report #2: Etkin, D., Haque, E., Bellisario, L. and Burton, I., (2004). An Assessment of Natural Hazards and Disasters in Canada - A Report for Decision-Makers and Practitioners- http://www.crhnet.ca/, 45pp. 1 1.2 Disasters through History Global Disasters Natural disasters have plagued humanity throughout history. We find disaster stories in our earliest records and they form the basis of many myths, such as the destruction of Atlantis. Not all people agree on exactly what constitutes a disaster1, but the most generally accepted definition is that a disaster is a damaging event that overwhelms the coping capacity of a community, such that it must seek outside aid in order to recover. Over time, we’ve done much to protect ourselves from disasters but recent data suggests that their impacts have been rising. According to the Centre for Research in the Epidemiology of Disasters the cost of natural disasters has risen 14-fold since the 1950's (See Figure 1). Certainly, as the world’s population grows and we accumulate more wealth, it’s not surprising that disasters are becoming more expensive. Figure 1: Economic Costs of Natural Disasters Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Grappling with the threat of future natural disasters is an important exercise for all 1 For more discussion on this topic, the reader is referred to ‘What Is a Disaster?: Perspectives on the Question’ by E. L. Quarantelli (Routledge Press, 1998) 2 countries, but particularly for those that have not developed resilient societies because of poverty or other issues. For example, Hurricane Mitch, which hit Central America in 1998, had a devastating impact on Honduras, rendering one-quarter of the population homeless. When disasters hit poor countries, the economic or insured losses may not be as large as disasters that affect richer ones, but the impact on the population can be much worse because of their greater vulnerability Canadian Disasters Canada is a huge land – the second largest country in the world. Its diverse geography and climate means that we’re exposed to many natural hazards and therefore experience a variety of natural disasters, including floods, droughts, ice storms, tornadoes, hail, wildfire, heat and cold waves, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunami and landslides (See Table 1). In 2003 alone, Canada experienced seven significant disasters; four were natural disasters and three were biological or technological disasters. These included an east coast hurricane, a major power blackout and a communicable disease (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS) in central Canada and, in the West, floods, wildfires, droughts and mad cow disease. It was an onslaught that forcefully reminded Canadians that disasters do happen here—and they cost us dearly, both economically and emotionally. Table 1: Most Expensive Canadian Natural Disasters (Total Estimated Economic Impact) Date of Event Location Estimated Total Cost occurrence (billion 2000$) 1980 Drought Prairie provinces $5.8 January 4-10,1998 Freezing rain Ontario to New Brunswick $5.4 1988 Drought Prairie provinces $4.1 1979 Drought Prairie provinces $3.4 1984 Drought Prairie provinces $1.9 July 19, 1996 Flood Saguenay region, $1.6 Québec May, 1950 Flood Winnipeg, Manitoba $1.1 October 15, 1954 Hurricane Toronto and southern $1.1 Hazel Ontario 1931-1938 Drought Prairie provinces $1.0 1989 Drought Prairie provinces $1.0 Source: Public Safety Canada In Canada, natural disasters have not killed many people, unlike some in developing countries that have caused up to hundreds of thousands of deaths. Biological hazards have been the most deadly; in 1918, the Spanish influenza epidemic may have killed as many as 50,000 Canadians, while smallpox epidemics in 1862 and 1885 killed at least 3 20,000 and almost 6,000 people respectively. Human-caused disasters have also caused many deaths. The Halifax Explosion of 1917 killed almost 2,000 people and the collision of two ships in fog near Rimouski in 1914 killed about 1,000. The most tragic weather-related disaster occurred in 1775, when a hurricane off the east coast destroyed a fleet of ships, causing about 4,000 deaths. As with most developed countries, the use of modern warning systems and improved standards in Canada has reduced the loss of life. However, the economic cost of disasters has been rising. Much of the cost is covered by insurance, but some hazards are not covered, including residential flooding from overland water flow and crop damage from drought. The insured costs of disasters by type is shown in Table 2. Notably, a single event—the 1998 ice storm (which is counted as 2 events as it went through Ontario and Quebec) —accounts for 23.8% of the payouts between 1983 and 2006. Table 2: Costs of Natural Disasters to the Insurance Industry, by Type* (Major multiple-payment occurrences) No. of Cost in Millions Event Type Events (2006 $) Percent of Total Flood/Hailstorm 1 180,187 2.2 Flooding 27 1,382,153 16.8 Forest Fires 1 212,257 2.6 Hail 8 691,360 8.4 Hailstorm 13 714,691 8.7 Hurricane 2 147,875 1.8 Icestorm 2 1,961,658 23.8 rainstorm 2 118,139 1.4 Snowstorm 2 156,285 1.8 Storm 26 1,037,023 12.6 Tornado 7 544,122 6.6 Wind 8 306,388 3.7 Wind/Hailstorm 3 68,386 0.8 wind/rainstorm 1 509,813 6.2 Windstorm 4 211,490 2.6 windstorm/hail 1 4,628 0 TOTAL 108 8,246,455 100% *Cost to the Canadian insurance industry of natural disasters. Types ranked by cumulative cost. Source: Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, data 1983 - Dec. 2006 (Drought and residential flood costs are not included. Commercial flood costs are insurable and included.) Public Safety Canada (PSC) offers an online Canadian Disaster Database which shows 4 that the number of disasters has been increasing, mainly as a result of more floods (See Figure 2). Figure 2: Historical trends of geophysical and weather related disasters in Canada (1900-2002) Source: Public Safety Canada (PSC) Canadian Disaster Database (CDD).