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Theses and Dissertations--Political Science Political Science
2015
Terrain, Trains, and Terrorism: The Influence of Geography on Terrorism in India
Andrea Malji University of Kentucky, [email protected]
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Recommended Citation Malji, Andrea, "Terrain, Trains, and Terrorism: The Influence of Geography on Terrorism in India" (2015). Theses and Dissertations--Political Science. 15. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/polysci_etds/15
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REVIEW, APPROVAL AND ACCEPTANCE
The document mentioned above has been reviewed and accepted by the student’s advisor, on behalf of the advisory committee, and by the Director of Graduate Studies (DGS), on behalf of the program; we verify that this is the final, approved version of the student’s thesis including all changes required by the advisory committee. The undersigned agree to abide by the statements above.
Andrea Malji, Student
Dr. Clayton Thyne, Major Professor
Dr. Clayton Thyne, Director of Graduate Studies
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1
The Terrorism Experience throughout India
1
2
modus operandi
3
Ethno-Nationalist Terrorism throughout Asia and the World
4
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Goals
7
Why it Matters?
8
status quo
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What is Terrorism?
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political
12
Table 1.1
Terrorism Criteria
1. Political Motive 2. Intent to Influence Broader Audience 3. Organized Group 4. Target Civilians 5. Non-State Actor 6. Premeditated
intention of influencing a broader audience
13
involvement of an organized group
targeting of civilians
14
non-state actor
premeditated
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The Difficulty with Defining Terrorism
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1 Global Terrorism Database: http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/
18
Why Terrorism?
19
Figure 1.1
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Global Distribution of Terror Attacks 1970-2013
Figure 1.2
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Figure 1.3
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Why India?
24
Terrorism in India
2 Although the GTD lists Colombia and Peru as having the most terrorist attacks, over 50% of these attacks had 0 fatalities. Most of the terrorist attacks in India had at least 1-10 fatalities, while many attacks had hundreds.
3 An ethnic minority includes Muslims, scheduled tribes or castes, and Naxalites, who may not always be members of a minority group but claim to represent their interests.
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Figure 1.4 Source Survey of India, 2014
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Figure 1.5 Source Survey of India, 2014
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Figure 1.6 Source Survey of India, 2014
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The Plan of the Dissertation
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2
Terrorism, Terrain, and Conflict around the World
Theoretical Frameworks
33
Relative Deprivation
Rational Choice Theory
34
not
35
Collective Action Approach
36
37
Explaining Terrorism
38
Poverty
poverty are the root causes of terrorism (Gorlick, 2009). The archbishop of Canterbury suggested that
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Generation
Limitations of the Poverty Literature
42
hawala
43
Inequality
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45
46
Limitations of the Inequality Literature
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Geography
Nations are born, grow, fight, conquer, are conquered, become empires, and rise and fall on the great stage of physical geography and human passions and knowledge, and not on the homogeneous white planes on which we draw our diagrams.- Kenneth Boulding
Geography and Development
49
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51
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53
Geography and Conflict
54
Limitations of the Geography Literature
55
Geography, Ethnicity and Social Exclusion
56
Terrorism and Separatism in India
Background
57
58
59
Colonial Legacy and Early Days of Independence
60
61
62
Ethnicity
63
64
Poverty and Inequality
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68
3
The Argument: Trains, Terrain, and Terrorism
69
Theoretical Expectations
Rugged Geography
1
Colonial Exclusion
2
Underdevelopment
+ +
Rugged Geography International Borders
3 3 Terrorism Figure 3.1
70
Legacies of Exclusion
Rugged Geography
1
Colonial Exclusion
2
Underdevelopment
Figure 3.2
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Excluded Areas of India Under British Rule
Figure 3.3
Excluded Areas
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78
The Railway
What a glorious change the railway has made in old and neglected India! Tamil, Telegu, Canarese, Marathi, Gujarati, Hindustani, Bengali, - populations which had been isolated for unmeasured ages, now easily mingle in civilized confusion. In my various long journeys it has repeatedly struck me that if India is to become a homogenized nation, and is ever to achieve solidarity, it must be by means of the railway as a means of transport (47).
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Underdevelopment
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Political Underdevelopment
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Social Underdevelopment
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Poverty Rate by State
Figure 3.4
90
It is impossible for us, with our limited means, to attempt to educate the body of the people. We must at present do our best to form a class who may be interpreters between us and the millions whom we govern; a class of persons, Indian in blood and colour, but English in taste, in opinions, in morals, and in intellect. To that class we may leave it to refine the vernacular dialects of the country, to enrich those dialects with terms of science borrowed from the Western nomenclature, and to render them by degrees fit vehicles for conveying knowledge to the great mass of the population (Macaulay 1835)
91
4 Deemed universities are high-performing universities within India that are given autonomy to set their own course work, admissions, and fees (University Grants Commission,1956) .
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Economic Underdevelopment
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H1: As a district’s distance to a rail station increases, the number of terrorist attacks in that district should increase.
H2: As a district’s level of development increases, the number of terrorist attacks in that district should decrease.
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Geography
Geography: Theoretical Expectations
Underdevelopment:
+ +
Rugged Geography International Borders
3 3 Terrorism
Figure 3.5
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Forests and Jungles
To our men the jungle was a strange, fearsome place; moving and fighting in it were a nightmare. We were too ready to classify jungle as impenetratable-
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Fight the guerrilla like a guerrilla,’
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H3: As a district’s percentage of forested terrain increases, the number of terror attacks in that district should also increase.
H4: As a district’s elevation increases, the number of terror attacks in that district should also increase.
International Borders
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H5: As a district’s distance to international borders decreases, the number of terror attacks in that district should increase.
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4
Investigating the Relationship among Trains, Terrain, and Terrorism
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Variables
Unit of Analysis
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Dependent Variable
Independent Variables
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Control Variables
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).
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State Level Analysis
Terrorist Attacks per Indian State 2000-2010
Figure 4.1 Source: Global Terrorism Database Number of attacks
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Table 4.1
State Level Characteristics of India % International Lit. % % State Attacks Forested Border Rate % SC ST Muslim Goa 0 57 No 88.7 1.7 0 6.84
Himachal Pradesh 0 31 China 83.78 25.2 4.22 1.97
Sikkim 0 60 China 81.42 5.02 20.6 1.42
Uttarkhand 0 60 China; Nepal 71.6 17.9 2.9 11.92
Haryana 1 5 No 75.55 20.2 0 5.78
Rajasthan 2 7 Pakistan 66.11 17.16 12.6 8.47
Gujarat 3 12 Pakistan 78 7.09 14.8 9.06
Madya Pradesh 4 24 No 65.38 15.17 23.3 6.37
Kerala 5 45 No 93.91 9.81 1.5 24.7
Tamil Nadu 5 16 No 83 19 1.1 5.56
Myanmar; Mizoram 6 90 Bangladesh 93.91 0.1 94.9 1.14
Punjab 6 4 Pakistan 75 31.9 0 1.57
Karnataka 11 21 No 75.6 16.2 4.26 12.23
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Uttar Pradesh 23 5 Nepal 67.68 20.7 0.6 18.5
Meghalaya 27 79 Bangladesh 74.43 0.6 85.9 4.28
Nagaland 73 79 Myanmar 76.88 0 86.5 1.76
Maharashtra 89 16 No 66.59 10.2 8.85 10.6
Bangladesh; Tripura 95 77 Myanmar 94.65 17.37 31.1 7.95
Orissa 261 28 No 63.61 16.53 22.1 2.07
Bihar 305 7 Nepal 63.82 4.3 1.3 18.1
Andhra Pradesh 324 15 No 61 16 8 18
West Bengal 352 13 Bangladesh 76.26 23.5 5.5 25.25
Jharkhand 382 26 No 66.4 16.35 1.3 13.85
Chhattisgarh 426 40 No 67.5 22.3 37.1 2.5
Manipur 587 66 Myanmar 79.21 2.62 32.3 8.81
Assam 909 30 Bhutan; Bangladesh 73.18 6.9 12.4 28.8
Jammu & Kashmir 1974 35 Pakistan; China 65.57 7.59 10.9 66.97
Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, India 5870 ~13 Myanmar, China 74 16.6 8.6 14.4
122
6 ULFA has one small off shoot called MULFA or Muslim United Liberation Front of Assam. Although the organization’s members are Muslim, the group shares the same goal as the broader ULFA organization, which is independence from India (SATP, 2014).
123
District Level Analysis
124
Attacks by District 2000-2014
Figure 4.2
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Table 4.2
Characteristics of the 30 Districts with Highest Number of Attacks
India average in parentheses
Mean # of % with more % with less Mean literacy Mean distance
attacks than 30% forest than 25 km to rate to railroad (km)
cover intl. border
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127
Table 4.3
Results: District Level Analysis
Without With Kashmir Min Max %∆ Kashmir Min Max %∆ Forested 0.047** 1.54 18.79 1120 0.024** 21.81 206.995 849 (0.007) (0.01) Elevation -0.001** 5.79 0.0002 -99.99 -0.001 276.22 4.737 -98.28 (0.0005) (0.0005) Elevation^2 2.48* 70.26 23.16 -67.03 0.002 (1.52) (0.0006) Distance to Border -0.009** 70.26 23.16 -67.03 -0.00** 21.28 1.1 -94.8 (0.0002) (0.00) Scheduled Caste -0.00** 54 44 -18.51 -0.005 (0.0157) (0.021) Scheduled Tribe -0.006** 44.52 100.18 125 0.011 (0.008) (0.01) Population Density 0 -0.00 (0.0004) (0.0004) Percent Muslim 0.01** 39.33 139.31 125 0.0006 (0.0087) (0.0123) Literacy Rate -0.06** 1.07 10.26 -89.57 -0.03** 181.97 22.77 -87.48 (0.0001) (0.012) Train Station 0.001** 2.99 14.75 393 0.02** 2.91 13.6 367.35 (7.98) (0.005) Observations 516 501 Pseudo R2 0.0783 0.050 Prob > chi2 0 0.000 LR chi2 154.02 115.660 AIC 1836.199 1982.000 BIC 1886.894 2020.209 Df 12 9
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Figure 4.3
7 Figures 4.3-4.7 have large confidence intervals, this is a result of how the data is distributed. Attempts at transforming the variable through normalizing, logging, or dropping outliers had only nominal or no effect on the confidence intervals.
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Figure 4.4
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Figure 4.5
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Figure 4.6
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Figure 4.7
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Mapping the Data
139
Forested Terrain and Terrorist Attacks using GIS
Figure 4.8
Three things are evident once the data is visualized in figure 4.8. First, attacks are
most frequent in the most forested regions of India. The most heavily forested regions,
which occur in Northeast India in the states of Manipur and Assam, have the highest
concentration of attacks. Nearly every district in the densely forested Northeast has 140
141
Rail Networks
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Terrain, Rail Network, and Terror Attacks in Kashmir
Figure 4.9
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Terrain, Rail Network, and Terror Attacks in Northeast India
Figure 4.10
Terrain, Rail Network, and Terror Attacks in the Naxal Belt
Figure 4.11
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Conclusions
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146
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5
Experiences of Terrain and Terrorism in Tamil Nadu, Uttarkhand, Assam, and
Nigeria
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149
Tamil Nadu
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The Development of Madras and modern Tamil Nadu
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152
Lessons from Tamil Nadu
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Uttarkhand and the Chipko Movement
Soil ours, water ours, ours are these forests. Our forefathers raised them, it’s we who must protect them. Traditional Chipko Song
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155
Theoretical Expectations
Rugged Geography
1
Colonial Exclusion
2
Underdevelopment
+ + Rugged Geography Intl. Borders
Terrorism
Figure 5.1
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157
The Development of Uttarkhand
158
It is unfortunate that due to socio-political and geographical reasons, the entire Northeast India has remained neglected and backward from the developmental point of view The basic needs for tourism development of the region are efficient infrastructure, good connectivity between the states and peace in the region. The entry permit formality required for a few states for both domestic and international tourists is a major deterrent for the region’s tourist attractiveness (37).
159
Lessons from Uttarkhand
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161
Assam and ULFA
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Causal Arrows 1 and 2
Rugged Geography
1
Colonial Exclusion
2
Underdevelopment Political, Economical, Social
Figure 5.2
Background of Grievances
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166
The Terrorism Climate of Assam
Terrorism Climate of Assam
Colonial Exclusion
Underdevelopment
+ + Rugged Geography Intl. Borders Terrorism
Figure 5.3
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Lessons from Assam
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Beyond India
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172
Nigeria and Boko Haram
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Background
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175
176
Nigerian Population Living on Less than $2 per Day
Figure 5.4 Source: World Bank, 2013
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178
Lessons Learned from Nigeria
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Lessons Learned from the Case Studies
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6
Conclusions and Policy Implications
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Terrorism is Bad for the Economy, but Development Alone is Not the Answer
188
Recommendation 1: Reward companies that invest in Northeast India, the Naxal
Belt, and Kashmir, employ locals, and invest in the local community. Punish companies that pay extortion fees.
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190
Recommendation 2: Invest extensively in the development of the railway and highway network in the states of Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya,
Kashmir, Chhattisgarh, and Arunachal Pradesh.
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Recommendation 3: Continue to cooperate with neighbors. A strong relationship with Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Bhutan are essential.
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Final Thoughts
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The only alternative to coexistence is codestruction. - Jawaharlal Nehru
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Vita
Educational Background: Professional Positions:
Honors and Awards:
Professional publications
Aviation Security International The Diplomatic Courier. Aviation Security International
Andrea Malji
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