DIIS REPORT Khalid Aziz Conditions for a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post-2014 DIIS Report 2014:04 DIIS REPORT DIIS . DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1 DIIS REPORT 2014:04 © Copenhagen 2014, the author and DIIS Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Østbanegade 117, DK 2100 Copenhagen Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail:
[email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Vesterkopi AS ISBN 978-87-7605-659-9 (print) ISBN 978-87-7605-660-5 (pdf ) Price: DKK 50.00 (VAT included) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk Hardcopies can be ordered at www.diis.dk Khalid Aziz, Chairman Regional Institute of Policy Research & Training (RIPORT)
[email protected] 2 DIIS REPORT 2014:04 Contents Abbreviations and Glossary 5 Chapter 1 7 Introduction 7 Framing of Issues 9 Chapter 2 13 Afghanistan in the Grip of the Great Game 13 Drivers of Instability in the AfPak Region 15 The Great Game and Creation of Pakistan 17 Nature of Pakistan–Afghan Relations 21 Pakistan’s Drift Towards Radicalization 25 Multiple Wars in Afghanistan 32 Recent Regional Developments 37 Chapter 3. Unfinished State Building in Pakistani FATA 39 Situational Analysis 39 Characteristics of FATA 40 System of Administration 40 Constitutional Position of FATA 42 Underdevelopment of FATA 43 Causes of the Rise of Militancy 44 Pakistani Society’s Sympathy for Militants 47 The Way Forward 49 Chapter 4 52 Security Transition and Reconciliation with the Taliban 52 Chapter 5 58 Amity between