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AFSC Conflict Assessment Afghanistan CONFLICT ASSESSMENT AFGHANISTAN FEBRUARY 2009 (Mausoleum of King Nadir Shah in Kabul / April 2006) Written by: Corinna Vigier Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ....................................................................................................... 12 PREFACE ................................................................................................................................. 13 BACKGROUND INFORMATION ........................................................................................ 15 I. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ............................................................................................... 16 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 18 2. The formation of an Afghan State (1747 – 1963) ................................................................................. 19 3. The end of the monarchy and the Soviet invasion (1964 – 1979) ........................................................ 21 4. The soviet occupation and the communist regime (1979 – 1988)........................................................ 23 5. The civil war and the rise of the Taliban (1989 – 2001) ...................................................................... 25 6. The US-Led Invasion and the first years after the Fall of the Taliban (2001 – 2006) .......................... 28 II. AFGHANISTAN IN NUMBERS ............................................................................................... 31 PEACE AND CONFLICT ANALYSIS ................................................................................. 34 I. CONFLICT LINES ................................................................................................................ 34 1. International conflicts affecting Afghanistan ....................................................................................... 36 2. Conflicts on the national level .............................................................................................................. 44 3. Conflict potentials on the local Level ................................................................................................... 47 II. STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 58 1. International / External actors ............................................................................................................. 58 2. National Actors ..................................................................................................................................... 65 III. ROOT CAUSES AND ESCALATING FACTORS ....................................................................... 80 1. Political ................................................................................................................................................ 81 2. Social .................................................................................................................................................... 85 3. Economic / Environmental ................................................................................................................... 88 4. Security related ..................................................................................................................................... 89 5. International ......................................................................................................................................... 91 IV. LOCAL STRUCTURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND PEACE INITIATIVES .......................... 94 1. Traditional structures of conflict resolution ......................................................................................... 95 2. Kinds of legitimization of a local mediator/arbitrator ......................................................................... 95 3. Drawbacks of traditional conflict resolution structures ....................................................................... 96 4. Peace Initiatives and Examples of peacebuilding Activities ................................................................. 97 V. THE IMPACT OF THE CONFLICT AND THE INSECURITY ON THE LOCAL POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS ................................................................................................. 103 1. The security situation in general ........................................................................................................ 103 2. Impact of the security situation on I(N)GOs ....................................................................................... 109 VI. UPCOMING CHALLENGES ....................................................................................... 115 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................... 119 ANNEX .................................................................................................................................... 120 1. The impact of the relationships Iran - Saudi Arabia – US on Afghanistan ........................................ 120 2. ISAF Map (December 1, 2008)........................................................................................................... 125 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 126 2/129 CONFLICT ASSESSMENT AFGHANISTAN Figures Figure 1: Political Map of Afghanistan ..................................................................................................................................15 Figure 2 : The Realm of Ahmad Shah Durrani .....................................................................................................................19 Figure 3: Warlordism and poppy cultivation in Afghanistan at the beginning of the 21st century .............................30 Figure 4: Topography of Afghanistan ....................................................................................................................................32 Figure 5 : The international, national and local conflicts affecting Afghanistan ..............................................................35 Figure 6 : International Conflicts affecting Afghanistan (Conflict Mapping) ...................................................................36 Figure 7 : The Durand Line and the maximum claimed extent of the Pashtunistan area. .............................................38 Figure 8 : The Pakistan Tribal Areas .......................................................................................................................................40 Figure 9: Ethnic groups in Afghanistan .................................................................................................................................54 Figure 10 : ISAF RC and PRT Locations .................................................................................................................................63 Figure 11 : “The Afghan Insurgent Front” ..............................................................................................................................68 Figure 12 : Political Alliances in summer 2008 ........................................................................................................................75 Figure 13 : Attacks from insurgents 2006-2008 (ANSO) .................................................................................................... 103 Figure 14 : Security Incidents 2003 – 2008 (UNDSS) ......................................................................................................... 104 Figure 15 : Security Situation in Afghanistan in winter 2008/2009 ................................................................................... 105 Figure 16 : Reported Civilian Casualties in Armed Conflict (2007 – 2008) ..................................................................... 107 Figure 17: Categorization of insurgent's attacks on NGOs, 2008 .................................................................................... 109 Figure 18 : Categorization of criminal attacks against NGOs, 2008 ................................................................................. 110 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Preface As part of a strategic planning process for the American Friends’ Service Committee (AFSC)’s program in the Middle East region, a conflict assessment was conducted between October and December 2008 in Afghanistan. Unlike most other conflict analyses which focus only on the main conflict(s) in the country itself, the final paper gives an introduction to the various conflicts on international, national and local levels that directly or indirectly affect the conflict situation in Afghanistan. It can offer no more than an introduction to the various conflicts that play a role in Afghanistan. This executive summary follows the same structure as the complete paper. It starts with an overview of the historical background in Afghanistan, followed by the conflict analysis (including conflict lines, involved stakeholders and root causes) and a short description of national and local peace initiatives and conflict resolution structures. After that, some information is given about the security situation and the upcoming challenges. Historical Background The current situation
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