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ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update September 30, 2011

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update September 30, 2011 ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update September 30, 2011 Current food security outcomes and classification Figure 1. Estimated food security outcomes, September 2011 [Unchanged from the previous report] Millions of people will continue to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity in southern Somali, Borena, Guji, and Bale lowlands of Oromia regions in September due to the extended dry period caused by two consecutive failed rainy seasons. The rate of influx of refugees from Somalia has further declined since the beginning of September and on average less than 200 new arrivals are crossing the border from southern Somalia regions of Bay, Gedo and Bakool into Dolo Odo per day. Levels of acute malnutrition have improved in Dolo Odo since August, although the average GAM prevalence remains at roughly 34 percent across the camps. Despite the poor performance of the kiremt rains in June/July, For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity crops in the western surplus producing parts of the country are Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale performing well, with the exception of sorghum in the lowlands Source: FEWS NET and WFP Figure 2. Estimated most likely food security of Western Tigray and north western Amhara. outcomes, October - December 2011 Pastoral conditions in the southern and southeastern agro pastoral and pastoral areas September is the last month of the Hagaa (dry) season before the deyr (October to December) rains begin. Serious pasture shortages continue to affect pastoral and agro pastoral populations in the drought affected zones of southern Somali, Borena, Guji and Bale lowlands of Oromia, resulting in further deterioration in livestock body conditions. Internal animal migration has continued from the most drought hit woredas of Moyale, Miyo, Dhas, Dilo and Dire to areas in parts of Yabelo and Arero where pasture availability is relatively better. More than 50,000 animals have concentrated in Yabelo Source: FEWS NET and WFP and Arero woredas while an estimated 30,000 animals have moved from Yabelo and Teltele woredas of Borena to Konso and Burji Special woredas in SNNPR. Animals in these areas are at an increased risk of disease, including trypanosomiasis in Konso and Burji. Livestock from northern Kenya are also crossing the border into these areas in search of pasture. Although increased animal movement typically occurs in the month of September, an abnormally high concentration of animals is also reported in woredas such as Dagahbour, Gode, Charati, Hargelle, Fik and Filtu woredas in Somali region. Water trucking is ongoing in many woredas including Hudet, Moyale, Barey, Gurebaqaqsa, Kelafo and Shilabo of Somali region. Prices of imported food such as rice and pasta have continued to rise due to increased demand following failure of the local harvest from the agro pastoral and riverine areas. Poor access to markets and high transportation cost in the FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Ethiopia 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not Tel: 251 11 662 0216 necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the Washington DC 20006 [email protected] United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Dekadal Food Security Monitoring Report September 30, 2011 remote areas, and limited commodity inflows from neighboring countries have also attributed to the increase in staple prices. Food insecurity has further deteriorated in southern zones of Somali due to seasonal declines in market supply and atypically high staple food prices. Livestock body conditions are very poor and water is scarce in many areas., The situation is very severe in Dobeweyn, Shilabo, Warder, Barey, Kelafo, Mustahil, Dolo Odo, Huded, Dolo Bay, Duhun, Garbo, Danan and Geladi woredas of Somali region. Based on the National Metrology Agency’s (NMA) forecast, the Kiremt rain in September is expected to be normal to above normal in most of the Kiremt rain receiving parts of the country. This has increased risk of flooding in the flood prone parts of southern Somali as rainfall from the highlands will increase the levels of Wabi Shabele, Dawa and Weib rivers. Based on the near average forecast for October to December season from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC), improvements are expected in these areas of focus (Figure 2). However, if the developing La Nina has a significant impact on seasonal performance, and rains are poor, Emergency levels of food insecurity would continue due to continued water shortages, high rates of animal mortality, poor availability of milk, and continued deterioration in livestock to cereal terms‐of‐trade. A national forecast is expected to be released by the National Metrological Agency (NMA) by the end of the month. Dolo Odo Refugee Camps Roughly 124,000 refugees from southern Somalia are hosted in the four refugee camps of Dolo Odo woreda of Liben zone. As of the first week of September, the prevalence of acute malnutrition was extremely high in all camps. MUAC screenings indicate Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence of 49 percent (Hiloweyn) 37 percent (Kobe), 33 percent (Melkedida) and 24 percent (Bokolomayo). The prevalence of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) ranged from 7 to 19 percent in all the camps. The highest prevalence were reported in Hiloweyn and Kobe camps, relatively new camps which were opened in June and August, respectively. Though the GAM prevalence remains unacceptably high, it has declined in the past month. Defaulting (i.e., malnourished children leaving treatment centers) is one of the primary factors limiting improvement in nutrition. There is limited ability in the camps to trace defaulters. The ineffectiveness of the outreach program for identifying and treating of moderate acute malnutrition cases was underlined as one of the major causes for such high levels of malnutrition. The other major factor identified as drivers of high GAM prevalence is the extremely serious nutritional status of the children on arrival. New cases of measles and associated fatalities have declined as a result of a measles vaccination campaign which took place in the last two weeks in all the camps. The crude mortality rate in the middle of September declined to 2.1/10,000/day in Kobe camp from a rate of 4‐ 5/10,000/day a couple of weeks ago. Outbreaks of Shigellosis and AWD are the emerging concerns in the camps. Preparedness measures and contingency plans are reportedly in place due to the outbreak of cholera in Somalia. Limited supplies of supplementary food are a concern despite improved local and external supplies to cover the general ration. Significant improvements are expected in terms of coordination, health infrastructure, decentralization of health/nutrition services, etc leading to changes in nutrition in the coming two to three months. Crop conditions and harvest prospects in the western productive areas Despite normal to above normal forecast for the Kiremt (June to September) rains, the performance of the rains was poor between June and mid of July in East Wellega, Horo Gudru Wellega, South Shewa of Oromia, lowlands of western Tigray and north western Amhara. The rains improved both in distribution and intensity beginning in the second half of July and have performed well since then. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Dekadal Food Security Monitoring Report September 30, 2011 Although the rains were erratic in June/July, the performance to date is considered favorable for land preparation and crop development in East Wellega, Horo Gudru Wellega and South Shewa zones of Oromia region. The poor rains during the first six weeks of the season have only delayed planting of teff and wheat by about two weeks. Planting for other major crops including maize, sorghum, barely pulses was on time. Most of the crops are maturing and at the grain filling stage. The distribution of fertilizers was timely and adequate, but in the lowlands yield reduction is anticipated from maize harvest as a result of inadequate provision of improved seed varieties. Regular monitoring is required to prevent the potential damage from yellow rust (on wheat) and army worm infestation on all the crops. Replanting for sorghum and sesame has been done in Humera (western Tigray) and Metema (northwestern Amhara) due to the inadequate rains in the beginning of the season. In many areas there has been a shift to short‐ cycle low‐ yielding variety of sorghum. The short cycle variety crops are performing well as the rainfall improved after the second half of July. Despite the inadequate rains and dry spell earlier in the season, the prospect of the harvest is generally positive in the Northwestern Cash Crop Livelihood Zone of Amhara and Humera Sesame and Sorghum Livelihood Zone of Tigray although yield reductions are expected for sorghum. Given the forecasts of normal to above normal rains over much of central and northern parts of the country during the October to December period, there is concern that heavy and extended rains could damage mature crops, especially sesame, the most valuable cash crop in western Tigray and north western Amhara. National Context Following the conflict in the Blue Nile State of Sudan, about 15,000 refugees have crossed the border into Benshangul Gumuz Region of Ethiopia. In August, the national level general and food inflation rates increased by 40.6 and 49.9 percent respectively compared to last year. The Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) has purchased about 300,000 MT of wheat and the first shipment is expected to arrive this month. One third of the total amount will be a reimbursement to the national Emergency Reserve Stock while the remaining 200,000 MT goes to the price stabilization urban project which delivers wheat to millers who in turn distribute wheat flour to targeted bakeries.
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