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Violent Extremism and Instability in the Greater Horn of Africa

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APRIL 2016 Violent Extremism and Instability in the Greater Horn of Africa An Examination of Drivers and Responses BY EELCO KESSELS, TRACEY DURNER & MATTHEW SCHWARTZ Copyright © 2016 Global Center on Cooperative Security All rights reserved. For permission requests, write to the publisher at: 129 S. Main Street, Suite 1 Goshen, IN 46526 USA Design: Cutting Edge Design Suggested citation: Eelco Kessels, Tracey Durner and Matthew Schwartz, “Violent Extremism and Instability in the Greater Horn of Africa: An Examination of Drivers and Responses,” Global Center on Cooperative Security, April 2016. www.globalcenter.org Violent Extremism and Instability in the Greater Horn of Africa An Examination of Drivers and Responses APRIL 2016 BY EELCO KESSELS, TRACEY DURNER & MATTHEW SCHWARTZ ABOUT THE AUTHORS EELCO KESSELS is Director of the London office and Horn of Africa region in particular, she has co-authored Senior Analyst at the Global Center (UK). He coordinates and contributed to reports on countering violent extremism research and programming activities related to addressing and AML/CFT topics and assisted in the design and violent extremist radicalization in prisons, managing implementation of regional capacity-building programs. She and reintegrating violent extremist offenders, countering holds a BA in international affairs and political science from violent extremism, and rule of law–based approaches Northeastern University. to counterterrorism. He has extensive counterterrorism experience from work at the International Centre for MATTHEW SCHWARTZ is a Senior Analyst for the Global Counter-Terrorism – The Hague, Leiden University, Center. He is responsible for research and programming the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the for the Global Center’s criminal justice and rule of law International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation in work, focusing on human rights, policing, and capacity London. development. He has extensive criminal justice policy and programming experience in eastern Africa and has written TRACEY DURNER is an Analyst for the Global Center. She and contributed to numerous reports on justice and security specializes in financial inclusion issues, including anti– development and counterterrorism in fragile contexts. He money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism holds an MA in international affairs from the New School (AML/CFT) and bank de-risking. Focusing on the Greater University in New York. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Global Center gratefully acknowledges the U.S. and officials working in the Greater Horn of Africa who were Department of State for providing financial support for consulted during the research phase of the report and have this report. In particular, thanks to Alexandra (Sasha) provided invaluable feedback on earlier drafts. Choulenina for her ongoing assistance and insights. Sincere thanks and gratitude also to the Intergovernmental The authors appreciate Global Center staff Alistair Millar, Authority on Development Security Sector Programme for its Peter Romaniuk, and Naureen Chowdhury Fink for their continued partnership and collaboration. contributions and assistance in the editing and production of this report. The authors wish to thank Rahma Dualeh of Frontline Consult for her partnership and assistance in providing The views expressed in this report are those of the authors feedback and drafting contributions to earlier versions of and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Global this report. We are also grateful to the many colleagues Center, its advisory council, or the U.S. government. ii ABOUT THIS REPORT This report is part of a program implemented by the Global organizations, representatives from donor embassies, and Center, supported by the U.S. Department of State, and subregional, national, and local civil society organizations, aimed at understanding and strengthening capacities to community groups, academics, and researchers. During prevent and counter violent extremism in the Greater Horn in-country consultation visits, the authors interviewed of Africa. It focuses on a subset of countries in the region— 72 governmental and civil society actors representing Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, 50 different organizations in the seven countries. These and Uganda. semistructured interviews and group discussions helped to verify the findings of the desk research and analysis of In short, this report aims to relevant reports and experiences, while filling information • provide an easily accessible overview of the Greater gaps and providing original primary data. Consulted Horn’s regional and national trends and drivers of violent stakeholders were provided an opportunity to review extremism and related sources of insecurity, sections of the report and deliver feedback. • identify relevant actors and describe their responses aimed at preventing and countering violent extremism, The broader analysis presented in this report aims to and stress key issues and trends applicable to some but not necessarily all focus countries. The report’s focus countries • highlight entry points for developing holistic strategies face differing forms and manifestations of extremist on countering violent extremism (CVE) inclusive of violence, and although some countries have the liberty governmental and civil society actors that promote good to focus on preventing violent extremism, others face a governance and community-based responses to violent specific, urgent, and ongoing threat. These differences, extremism. combined with divergent interpretations of the concepts of In conjunction with the Global Center report “Countering violent extremism and CVE, pose conceptual challenges Violent Extremism and Promoting Community Resilience in in the analysis of the drivers of and responses to violent the Greater Horn of Africa: An Action Agenda” and related extremism. documents, this report may provide a guide to regional Additionally, this report is not intended to offer an challenges and input for informing nationally tailored exhaustive assessment of the Greater Horn’s trends on a interventions to strengthen capacities to prevent and regional or national level or its drivers of violent extremism counter violent extremism. or deliver a comprehensive catalogue of country responses. Building on the Global Center’s experience implementing Rather, it provides an overarching view of the regional and CVE and related programs in the Greater Horn region, this national drivers of violent extremism and other sources report has been developed on the basis of desk research of insecurity, offers strategic and policy-related insights and in-country and remote stakeholder consultations with for relevant CVE stakeholders, and highlights the need government officials, international experts from the United for holistic CVE strategies that support inclusive and Nations and other intergovernmental and international sustainable responses to violent extremism. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms vi Executive Summary ix Introduction 1 Regional Trends 3 Djibouti 9 Ethiopia 15 Kenya 23 Somalia 29 South Sudan 37 Tanzania 45 Uganda 53 Conclusion 59 Table 1. Incidents of Terrorism, 2004–2014 3 v ACRONYMS ADF Allied Democratic Force (Uganda) AU African Union CCM Chama Cha Mapinduzi (Party of the Revolution) (Tanzania) CUF Chama Cha Wananchi (Civic United Front) (Tanzania) CVE countering violent extremism DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo EIASC Ethiopian Islamic Affairs Supreme Council EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front EU European Union FRUD Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (Djibouti) FRUD-C FRUD-Combatant (Djibouti) GDP gross domestic product IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development LRA Lord’s Resistance Army MRC Mombasa Republican Council (Kenya) MUHURI Muslims for Human Rights (Kenya) NCTC National Counterterrorism Center (Tanzania) NGO nongovernmental organization OLF Oromo Liberation Front (Ethiopia) ONLF Ogaden National Liberation Front (Ethiopia) PRDP Peace, Recovery and Development Plan (Uganda) SNM Somali National Movement SNRS Somali National Regional State SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army SPLM Sudan People’s Liberation Movement TFG Transitional Federal Government (Somalia) TPLF Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (Ethiopia) UIC Union of Islamic Courts (Somalia) UN United Nations UNDP UN Development Programme vi 40° Al Qunfudhah 45° 50° HORN OF AFRICA SAUDI ARABIA Atbara Abhā Red Sea Najrān HORN Thamūd Alghiena A OF t Sala Sa'dah b Jīzān AFRICA Nile a r Shendi a Nakfa Mersa Gulbub Af'abet Jaza'ir'- Dahlak Farasān YEMEN Khartoum ERITREAArchipelago Saywūn Sebderat Mitsiwa'e Hajjah Kassala Asmara Şan'ā Shabwah Inghel Ma'rib 15 Teseney 15 ° Barentu Mersa Fatuma (Sanaa)' ° Al Hudaydah SUDAN Adi Quala 'Atāq Ash Shihr Wad Madani Omhajer Tio Dhamār Al Mukallā Gedaref Aksum Adigrat Himora Adwa Idi Ibb Al Baydā' T Balhāf ekez W Sinnar e Mek'ele Ta'izz B Ahwar h a i b t Singar e B D a i Shaykh 'Uthmān N n Metema l d Debark' l u e M G i G l e r Assab w e e Sek'ot'a a e N n Adan (Aden) a s Gonder d rd i a l a e b T'ana fu Serdo Obock Gulf of Aden Caluula y Hayk Weldiya DJIBOUTI Ed Damazin Bahir Dar Tadjoura Butyaalo A Djibouti b h Guba ay Bati s Boosaaso (Bl a Saylac u Dese w Dikhil e A Ali Sabin N Karin Bure i l Ceerigaabo Xaafuun Goha A e Kurmuk b ) a Debre Mark'os Gewané y Boorama Baki Berbera 10 10 ° Mendi ETHIOPIA ° Fiche Debre Birhan Dire Dawa Hargeysa Burco Qardho Gimbi Nek'emte Addis Ababa Harer Jijiga Bandarbeyla Gidami Hagere
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