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Ones to Watch Local elections 2018 Ones to watch Local Elections Over the past seven years, the LGiU has provided live local elections coverage and a results service with insights into what’s happening on the ground and what it means for the country as a whole. Telling the story of what’s happening in the locals and raising awareness of these issues is something we are proud to be continuing this year. This guide is part of our Local Elections 2018 work which includes supporting better communications and and Out for the Count – an awareness raising campaign dedicated to improving local democracy with a call for open and accessible local elections data across the UK. Join this year’s election coverage and Out for the Count Campaign 2018 by being a count correspondent: find out more here. One hundred and fifty councils are electing councillors this May. Five authorities are also electing mayors – and the Sheffield City Region is electing its inaugural metro mayor. Inevitably, the main story of the local elections on the national stage will be London, where all 32 boroughs are holding all-out elections. Elsewhere in the country, all the metropolitan boroughs – with the exception of Doncaster and Rotherham, who had boundary changes in previous years – are up for election. A number of district councils are also holding elections – most electing by thirds, although a handful are all out or electing half their councillors. LGiU | LE2018 Ones to Watch 1 Overview Just over 4,000 councillors are up for election – nearly twice as many as last year, when the counties were up. Just over half are Labour, while just under a third are Conservative. The BNP’s last remaining seat, in Pendle, is also up. Certain areas will also shed some light on how the Liberal Democrats and UKIP are faring – see ‘ones to watch’ for more details. LGiU | LE2018 Ones to watch 2 In terms of council control, as you’d expect in an election season dominated by the metropolitan and London boroughs, Labour run just under half of the councils with elections. Of the councils in no overall control, they have a hand in the running of (again) just under half – two more than the Conservatives. Last year’s local elections – held shortly before the general election – saw Labour lose nearly 200 councillors, and control of Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Northumberland. While only a third of the councillors ending their terms are Conservative, the party could still be on shaky ground in May. Many of the Labour councils up for election have sizeable majorities, whereas a greater number of the Conservative councils are decidedly more volatile. The party Chairman, Brandon Lewis, has been emphasising that this is a “difficult” point in the electoral cycle for the Conservatives. 2017 was a near-complete wipeout for UKIP: Labour and Conservative councillors took their seats across the country. Recent by-elections have also eaten away at the number of UKIP councillors. The 2018 elections look set to continue that trend, as local UKIP groups fall into disarray. The Liberal Democrats have seen modest but not disastrous results in local by-elections since last summer, when they held on in traditional strongholds but missed out in parts of the west country. London Every London borough is up for election. 2014, the last time London councils went to the polls, saw Labour win 43% of the popular vote in London – their highest result since 1973. LGiU | LE2018 Ones to Watch 3 Labour currently holds 20 out of the 32 London boroughs. The Conservatives hold eight, the Liberal Democrats one and three are in no overall control – Barnet (since March 2018), Tower Hamlets and Havering. In Tower Hamlets, the presence of Aspire and the People’s Alliance of Tower Hamlets complicates analysis. Likewise, in Havering, no less than three residents’ groups prevent the Conservative administration from taking overall control. Pollsters predict that Labour is likely to do well in these elections – particularly in inner London, where the Conservatives could well find themselves squeezed out. Current state of political control in London Grenfell casts a long shadow over public life - not least when it comes to this year’s elections in London. The Conservatives currently hold three quarters of the seats on Kensington and Chelsea council. The central party seemed to be washing its hands of the council even before the election campaign kicked off, with Sajid Javid blaming the authority for “totally unacceptable” delays in housing those made homeless by the fire. However, what happens in May will depend upon local manoeuvres - if local groups seek election and split the vote, the election isn’t necessarily a foregone conclusion. Momentum adds yet another angle to the London elections, as its membership grows and its influence on local politics rises. However, despite accusations of a “purge” in Haringey, only a third of the current group of Labour councillors are standing down or have been deselected. In advance of May’s elections, Momentum have been working to provide training and support to councillors in target areas. Ones to watch Barnet, where the Conservatives lost their majority of 1 in March, leaving the council in no overall control. Large swings to Labour would threaten the Conservative majorities in Kingston, Hillingdon and Wandsworth. Kensington is an unknown quantity: even in 2014, the Conservatives lost six seats – the final result depends on how Labour LGiU | LE2018 Ones to watch 4 campaigns on the ground and the potential presence of any independent or residents’ groups. Keep an eye on Croydon, Hammersmith and Redbridge: polls suggest the slim Labour majorities here are set to rise. Metropolitan boroughs Four authorities who’ve had boundary changes are going all out: Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle. Of the rest of the metropolitan boroughs, most have a third of their councillors up for election (with the exception of Doncaster and Rotherham – who moved to ‘all out’ elections in 2017 and 2016 respectively, so aren’t out this year). The Conservatives hold only two metropolitan boroughs: Solihull and Trafford. Solihull has a single Labour councillor, with a strong Green presence in opposition to the Conservatives; while Trafford is a more traditional two-horse race. Twenty-seven of the metropolitan boroughs up for election are Labour – including many solidly Labour councils, where the opposition consists of just one or two councillors. These are unlikely to change significantly. Ones to watch Solihull, where a sizeable swing away from the Conservatives could knock it into no overall control; and Trafford, Conservative since 2004 but with a history of both Labour and no overall control. In Bradford Labour have a majority of two, and the council has wavered back and forth between Labour and no overall control since the 1980s. There’s a similar tale in Wirral, Sefton and Bury. Meanwhile, in Dudley, a council that has teetered back and forth between Labour, Conservative and no overall control, a minority Labour administration currently hold the reins. However, nearly all of UKIP’s eight seats are up for election – UKIP’s fortunes here could translate into a win for Labour or the Conservatives. Sheffield has hit the headlines as it pauses its controversial tree-felling work. With 19 Labour seats up for election, the party could find that the protests damage their performance at the polls. The ruling administration would need to lose 12 seats to lose control of the council. Unitary authorities Two unitary authorities – Hull and Blackburn with Darwen – are going all out, while 15 others are out in thirds. The Conservatives hold four, five are in no overall control and Labour control the remaining eight. Ones to watch Derby and Southampton have slim Labour majorities. In Peterborough a single Conservative gain would put the council back in majority control – in Portsmouth they’d need two extra councillors. In Swindon the Conservative majority rests on a single councillor; in Southend, two. LGiU | LE2018 Ones to Watch 5 Those interested in UKIP’s prospects could keep an eye on Thurrock, where all 17 UKIP councillors resigned earlier this year to form a new independent group. UKIP are reportedly planning on standing candidates in every ward where it formerly had councillors. Districts Seven district councils are going all out; six are electing half their councillors; and 55 are out in thirds. Most of these are in the East and the South East. It’s here where the Conservatives control most of their councils up for election. Ones to watch In Amber Valley, if the Conservatives lose just one of the four seats they hold that are up for election, the council will go into no overall control. Watch Three Rivers to see if the Liberal Democrats can keep hold of their wafer thin majority – they’re defending eight of their 20 seats. Labour are defending small majorities in Redditch and Cannock Chase. In Basildon the Conservatives are the largest party, and just three councillors short of an overall majority. With five UKIP seats up for grabs, this could be a chance for the Conservatives to take effective control (although the council is likely to remain in no overall control). The council has flip flopped back and forth between Labour and Conservative control for years – although the Conservatives most recently had overall control between 2003 and 2014, it’s currently headed up by Labour. Mayoral Five local authority mayoral elections are taking place this May: four London mayors plus Watford. There’s also the inaugural metro mayor elections happening in Sheffield. In Hackney, where they’ve had mayors since 2002, two Labour mayors have held the position with increased majorities every year.
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