OPINION NATURE|Vol 453|19 June 2008

common pie instead of increasing the total size Building nations after conflict of the pie. Conflict among élites prevents con- sistent government policy and often mutates Fixing Failed States: A Framework for 1920s and 1930s, China was a collapsed state. into an armed struggle. A necessary condition Rebuilding a Fractured World With a weak national government and most of a strong, effective and democratic state is by Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart of its territory controlled by warlords, it was some degree of consensus among the élites Oxford University Press: 2008. affected by incursions from Europe and Japan, about the strategic goals and the political proc- 264 pp. $24.95, £14.99 and by a raging communist uprising. ess for achieving them. Can general lessons be drawn? Ghani and One of the most important social mechanisms Lockhart fail to present a compelling analysis, that determines whether élites are consolidated Political instability in collapsed or collapsing quoting instead political leaders ranging from or fragmented is élite overproduction — grow- states is one of the greatest sources of human UK prime ministers William Gladstone and ing numbers of aspirants for élite positions, misery. Since the end of the cold war, within- Gordon Brown to Mahathir Mohamad, former resulting from demographic expansion and state conflicts, such as civil wars and separatist prime minister of Malaysia. unbalanced social mobility. When the number rebellions, have caused ten times more deaths The authors do not use knowledge accumu- of aspirants greatly exceeds the supply of élite than have wars between states. The indirect, lated by social scientists in recent decades. There positions, fragmentation and conflict ensue. non-military consequences of internal con- is no mention of the burgeoning literature on Another important issue is cooperation and flict — civilian casualties, refugees, wrecked revolutions and state collapse, such as the work trust. A dysfunctional state is like a vast game of economies, famine and disease — are orders of of sociologist Jack Goldstone, or of books on prisoner’s dilemma in which those who cooper- magnitude worse than the direct, military out- transitions from civil war to democracy, such as ate are taken advantage of, leaving withdrawal comes. In Fixing Failed States, former Afghan Elisabeth Jean Wood’s Forging Democracy from from cooperation as the only rational strategy. finance minister Ashraf Ghani and develop- Below (Cambridge University Press, 2000). Citizens avoid paying taxes because this will ment-policy expert Clare Lockhart analyse Such recent studies indicate that generalities only enrich corrupt officials, whereas officials why states crumble and propose a framework can be found in the historical record, although spend public money on themselves and their for rebuilding state capability. we are only beginning to understand them. One clans because if they do not, others will take it. International organizations, such as the generality that might have been included is the How can societies escape such a state of perva- United Nations, International Monetary Fund role of political élites in state building. When sive distrust? We lack a good theory to provide and World Bank, have been busy recently. élites are fragmented — perhaps by ethnic an answer, but there are promises of one. Before 1990, the United Nations initiated a divisions or rival patronage networks — each The new discipline of experimental econom- peace-keeping mission on average once every faction focuses on getting its own piece of the ics demonstrates how non-cooperative groups three years. Since 1990, they have run approxi- mately three new missions each year. Many interventions successfully stopped active Winning Darwin design takes root fighting. Yet our record in addressing the deep causes of conflict and constructing viable post- Sculptor Tania Kovats has conflict societies has been poor. won the Darwin’s Canopy Ghani and Lockhart are optimistic that we competition to design a new permanent artwork for Charles have “the elements of a new approach to state Darwin’s bicentenary at the building”. They review four examples — post- Natural History Museum in war Europe, Singapore, the southern United London. A longitudinal cross MUS., LONDON HIST. NAT. States and Ireland — that, in their opinion, section of a real fallen oak prove that countries confronted with dev- tree, including roots, trunk and astation, chaos and entrenched poverty can branches, will be veneered into transform themselves into prosperous and the panelled ceiling of a gallery stable members of the global community. behind the central hall. Apart from Singapore, however, these are not Ten contemporary artists examples of state collapse. Europe in 1945 submitted designs, which are was devastated by interstate war; Ireland was on display at the museum poor before its economic miracle but not a until 14 September. Kovats’s collapsed state; and few would consider the ceiling installation will be inspired her. “Whether a tree in disseminating knowledge, United States to be weak. Seceding from the unveiled on 12 February or a coral,” she notes, it is as well as taxonomy, and the Federation of Malaysia in 1965, Singapore was 2009, on what would “quite remarkable for how it use of a fallen tree hints at plagued by poverty, corruption and a com- have been Darwin’s two- represented to him a proof how Darwin felled the existing munist insurrection. Today, it is an economic hundredth birthday. of where his thoughts were orthodoxy. The tree “is a real powerhouse with one of the least corrupt civil Kovats, currently tracing going”. thing as well as a sculptural services in the world. Darwin’s footsteps in South Within Kovats’s design intervention, and as such can (sketch, pictured), her take its place amongst the A better example, dealt with in passing, is the America, has long marvelled at a piece of petrified tree tree’s roots will represent other real things housed in the remarkable reversal of China’s fortunes during held at the museum. A the research of museum collection”, she explains. ■ the twentieth century. We think of China now branching sketch in Darwin’s scientists. Its branches will Colin Martin is a writer based as a surging world power that has enjoyed 10% notebook of 1837 also represent the museum’s role in London. annual economic growth since 1980. Yet in the

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