Research

2016 prime Residential real estate market

Highlights

ŠŠ High activity of developers. 15 complexes were put on the market since the beginning of 2016, 4 of them were reserved for private sale. Thus, the number of flats and apartments for sale rose by 19% within 2016 despite the high pace of sales over the past year.

ŠŠ Rising number of projects with fit-out.There had only been 4 properties with fit-out on the primary market at the end of 2015, while there were already 10 complexes with fitted out flats and apartments in December 2016.

ŠŠ Increasing demand. The primary market evidenced 12% more transactions in 2016 than a year earlier.

ŠŠ The shift of interest to smaller lots with more ergonomic layouts. The average size of flats and apartments sold in 2016 shrank by 10% to be equal to 125 sq m.

ŠŠ Forecast. We expect that the high pace of launch campaigns of new facilities will be maintained in 2017. If so, about 20 new projects can be introduced in the prime segment. The geography of new projects is diverse: the add-on is expected in historically prime districts such as Ostozhenka-Prechistenka, Patriarshiye Prudy, Khamovniki. Furthermore, new projects will approach the market in less traditional districts of prime development – Zamoskvorech'e, Ramenki. The average price of the supply may most likely show a negative trend, but only due to changes in the supply structure – the entry of less expensive supply at the initial construction stage to the market. prime Residential real estate market. Moscow 2016 Research

Supply

Marina Roshcha 2,150 flats and apartments were listed for sale at the primary market as of the Sretenka beginning of 2017, which is 19% higher than Tverskoy a year earlier. The total area of supply was Izmajlovo equal to 278.8 thousand sq m as of the start Begovoy Meshhanskij 2.2% 0.6% 12.9% 7.2% Khoroshevskiy 4 of 2017, the supply volume was 11% up over Krasnosel'skij the past year. Chistye Prudy The supply growth was primarily caused by Sokolinaja Gora the high activity of developers: official sales Presnensky were opened in 11 residential complexes 5 3.8% 7.5% for 2016, in fact, private sales were started 10.0% 12.7% Basmannyj in other 4 projects. The remarkable thing Patriarch's Ponds was that 6 of 11 new facilities consisted Krylatskoe of flats. New apartment complexes 11 1.0% 1.0% were mainly represented by club format Arbat 2 properties (up to 50 lots), the exception 3 was Residence, where there were 11.1% 4.6% Tagansky 170 apartments. 3 projects out of 6 in Filevskiy Park Новогиреево the segment of flats were represented by houses with few flats (50–100 lots) or large 5.6% 1.9% facilities (more than 100 lots). Ostozhenka–Prechistenka Dorogomilovo The number of flats for sale increased by 9 8 10 7 Zamoskvorech'e one third – from 940 to 1,250 lots, while 2.6% 0.3% 1 6 the number of apartments remained at the 6.4% 12.7% same level. Pluschikha 40% of the total supply were focused in Nizhegorodskij -Davydkovo 3 districts: Yakimanka 8.3% 7.0% ŠŠ Ramenki (15.4%); Ryazanskiy

ŠŠ (12.9%); 8.8% 6.5% Можайский Juzhnoportovyj ŠŠ Khamovniki (11.7%). Ramenki The Top-3 leaders rating underwent certain Danilovskiy Donskoy changes during the year. left Tekstil'shhiki 15.4% 12.0% the Top-3 and stepped down from the second to fourth position in the ranking 0.2% 3.3% due to changes in the supply structure: part Kuz'minki Gagarinskiy of the supply of Stars of Arbat complex Khamovniki was withdrawn from the market in order to make fit-out and further let out on long- 11.7% 22.7% term lease. Ochakovo-Matveevskoe Properties entered the market in 2016

Akademicheskiy Number of Announced Title Location (district) Format Start of sales lots commissioning date

1 Bunin 37, Pluschikha St (Pluschikha) flats 29 March Q4 2017 Nagatinskij Zaton 2LomonosovskiResidentsiya na Pokrovsky boulevard 5, Pokrovsky Blvd (Chistye Prudy) apartments 45 April Q3 2018 Kotlovka Part Part in the 3 Tverskaya Residence 6, 2nd Brestskaya St (Tverskoy) Nagatino-Sadovniki apartments 114 July Ljublino Q4 2016 in the total total number supply of transactions Prospekt Vernadskogo 4 RENOME 24, St (Tverskoy) flats 152 July Q1 2019 5 Khlebny Dom 19, Khlebny Lane (Arbat) flats 14 August Q4 2017 Nagorniy 12.9% 7.2% 6 Malaya Ordynka 19 19, Malaya Ordynka St (Zamoskvorech'e) Pechatnikiflats 67 September Q2 2019 7 Clubhouse at Kosmodamianskaya 38, bld. 3, Kosmodamianskaya Emb. (Zamoskvorech'e) flats 22 September Q4 2016 Obruchevskiy Troparevo-Nikulino > 11.5% 8 Nabokov Cheremushki 10/1, Kursovoy lane (Ostozhenka-Prechistenka) apartments 15 October Q1 2017 Flats 5–11.5% 9 Zhizn' na Pluschikhe 2/3, Pogodinskaya St (Pluschikha) flats 202 November Q4 2019 < 5% Apartments 10 Cloud Nine Zuzino9, Bolshaya St (Yakimanka) apartments 45 December Q4 2018 Mar'ino 11 il Ricco 11, Podsosensky lane (Chistye Prudy) apartments 11 December Q4 2017

Source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

2 3 prime Residential real estate market. Moscow

Primary market supply structure

Up to 50 50–100 100–150 150–200 200–250 250–300 More than 300 mln rub. mln rub. mln rub. mln rub. mln rub. mln rub. mln rub.

Up to 100 sq m 22.1% 8.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

100–149 sq m 6.0% 21.3% 10.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%

150–199 sq m 0.1% 4.5% 7.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1%

200–249 sq m 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 0.8% 1.2% 0.8%

More than 250 sq m 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 2.0%

Primary market supply in different construction stages

30% 8% 28% 34% Groundbreaking stage In-situ concreting Fit-out works Already delivered

The leader was changed also: the high pace of sales in led to a Supply of primary flats and apartments of high-budget segment based on their reduction in the supply volume despite the area fact that the new phase of Sadovye Kvartaly 2% was launched in 2016, where there were 86 flats in buildings 2.1–2.4. Thus, the largest 4% 3% 10% share of the primary market supply was 25% 15% located in Khamovniki (17%) in December 2015, but now the district only closes the 41% Top-3 by the supply volume with its share 19% Flats Apartments of 11%. Up to 100 sq m The bulk of the supply (58%) consisted of 100–149 sq m 39% lots with an area up to 150 sq m in the 150–199 sq m 42% budget of 100 million rubles as of early 200–249 sq m More than 250 sq m 2017. The supply of facilities in the groundbreaking stage increased from 11% in December 2015 to 30% in 2016, which was primarily due to Supply of primary flats and apartments of high-budget segment based on their an active entry of new projects in zero cycle price to the market, such as Malaya Ordynka, 19, 2% Residence at Pokrovsky Boulevard, Life on 4% 6% Plyushchikha and so on. 5% 25% The following complexes were delivered in 32% 2016: 26% 31% Flats Apartments ŠŠ Sovetnik; ŠŠ MONE Residence; ŠŠ Pekin Gardens; Up to 50 mln rub. 35% 50–100 mln rub. ŠŠ Rassvet (1st phase) 100–200 mln rub. 34% 200–300 mln rub. ŠŠ Wine House; More than 300 mln rub.

ŠŠ Clubhouse at Kosmodamianskaya. Source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

4 2016 Research

2016 dymanics of number of transactions

pcs 100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 January February March April May June July August September October November December

2016 transactions with flats and apartments of the primary market based on their Demand area

1% The primary market witnessed 724 trans- actions with flats and apartments by the 5% 5% 5% end of the year, which was 12% up against 25% 14% 2015. The total area of all sold lots reached 17% over 90 thousand sq m during January– Flats Apartments 53% December 2016. The average budget of a transaction was 27% 17% down year-on-year and amounted Up to 100 sq m to 87 million rubles by the end of 2016. 48% 100–149 sq m Buyers leant toward more compact lots 150–199 sq m with ergonomic planning solutions in 2016. 200–249 sq m More than 250 sq m Thus, the average area of flats and apart- ments sold fell from 138 sq m in 2015 to 125 sq m in January-December 2016. The average budget of transactions with flats was fixed at the level of 100 million 2016 transactions with flats and apartments of the primary market based on their rubles by the end of 2016 and at 67 million price rubles in the segment of apartments. The average budget in the segments of 2% 1% flats and apartments declined by 23% and 4% 6% 6%, respectively, compared to 2015. 21% 11%

14%

Flats Apartments 52%

34% Up to 50 mln rub. 55% 50–100 mln rub. 100–200 mln rub. 200–300 mln rub. More than 300 mln rub. Source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

5 prime Residential real estate market. Moscow 2016 Research

Marina Roshcha Commercial terms Tverskoy Sretenka 9% drop of the average sale price of the primary Izmajlovo market was registered against last year's figure and +3% -29% 647 thousand rub./sq m Begovoy Meshhanskij 473 thousand rub./sq m was fixed at 785 thousand rub./sq m by the end of Khoroshevskiy Krasnosel'skij 2016. Interestingly, the key drop of this mid-market figure was recorded at the beginning of the year. Chistye Prudy One of the reasons of such downward trend was the Presnensky Sokolinaja Gora adjustment of prices in Knightsbridge Private park +3% 718 thousand rub./sq m where dollar prices were cut by 30–40% in February 2016. The next reason was the new supply in Vorob’ev -1% 508 thousand rub./sq m Basmannyj Dom Residential Complex in February-March last year. Patriarch's Ponds This figure was relatively stable within April-October, Krylatskoe +53% 1,526 thousand rub./sq m there was even an increase of a few percent in Arbat some months. The mid-market index did not show considerable fall despite the entry of new supply, Lefortovo Tagansky Perovo as the prices for complexes in the active stages of +9% 1,041 thousand rub./sq m Filevskiy Park implementation were marked up by developers due to changes in the stage of construction readiness and -6% 996 thousand rub./sq m performance of sales target. Ostozhenka–Prechistenka Dorogomilovo Top-3 districts with the highest average price of the Zamoskvorech'e supply: +13% 1,520 thousand rub./sq m ŠŠ Patriarshiye Prudy; +4% 522 thousand rub./sq m ŠŠ Ostozhenka-Prechistenka; Pluschikha Nizhegorodskij ŠŠ Arbat. Fili-Davydkovo Yakimanka The list of leaders got changed in some way for the -11% 767 thousand rub./sq m Ryazanskiy year. Khamovniki was withdrawn from the list of the most expensive districts due to the price cutting in -23% 803 thousand rub./sq m Knightsbridge Private Park, as well as due to the entryМожайский Juzhnoportovyj Ramenki of new supply in Sadovye Kvartaly residential complex. Danilovskiy Donskoy Tverskoy district witnessed the largest decline in 2016, Tekstil'shhiki where the price of the supply shrank by 29% and -14% 624 thousand rub./sq m was fixed at 647 thousand rub./sq m. The negative 0% 612 thousand rub./sq m dynamics of the average price in this district was Kuz'minki related to the launch of new projects. Thus, the start Khamovniki Gagarinskiy of sales in Tverskaya Residence and RENOME – new major complexes – was announced in Tverskoy district -27% 827 thousand rub./sq m in 2016. Ochakovo-Matveevskoe The average price for flats reached a total of Dynamics of the Akademicheskiyaverage price in primary market 766 thousand rub./sq m at the year-end, indicating 20% fall, while 7% uprise of the price for apartments thousand rub. /sq m amounted to 918 thousand rub./sq m. This is an 900 Nagatinskij Zaton unconventional situation for the market as a year Lomonosovski 850 ago the price for flats was a quarter higher than the Kotlovka price for apartments, now it is 6% less. Such upward Nagatino-Sadovniki Ljublino 800 Dynamics ProspektAverage Vernadskogo weighted adjustment for the price of apartments is incidental to of average prime residential the change of the supply structure. For example, the price sale price 750 entrance of Cloud Nine and Nabokov complexes to Nagorniy 785 thousand rub./sq m Pechatniki the market had the strongest influence on such price +12% 700 rise. Both facilities offer their buyers apartments with < 700 thousand rub./sqObruchevskiy m troparevo-Nikulino high quality fit-out. Moreover, the price escalation 700–1,000 thousand rub./sq m 650 Cheremushki was recorded in complexes in the active stages of > 1 mln rub./sq m implementation, such as Balchug Viewpoint, Balchug 600 Zuzino December January February March April May June July August September October November December Mar'ino Residence, Sovremennik et cetera. 2015 2016

Source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

6 7 prime Residential real estate market. Moscow 2016 Research

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Research Residential Olga Yasko Alexey Treshchev Director, & CIS Head of Department © Knight Frank LLP 2017 – This overview is published for general [email protected] [email protected] information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, view and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight Frank Research or Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not +7 (495) 981 0000 necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects.

Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank.

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