Draft Forecasting and Modeling Report
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DRAFT FORECASTING AND MODELING REPORT MAY 2021 Metropolitan Transportation Association of City Representatives Commission Bay Area Governments Nikki Fortunato Bas Alfredo Pedroza, Chair Jesse Arreguín, President Councilmember, City of Oakland Napa County and Cities Mayor, City of Berkeley London Breed Nick Josefowitz, Vice Chair Belia Ramos, Vice President Mayor, City and County of San Francisco San Francisco Mayor's Appointee Supervisor, County of Napa Tom Butt Margaret Abe-Koga David Rabbitt, Mayor, City of Richmond Cities of Santa Clara County Immediate Past President Pat Eklund Supervisor, County of Sonoma Eddie H. Ahn Mayor, City of Novato San Francisco Bay Conservation Maya Esparza and Development Commission County Representatives Councilmember, City of San José David Canepa Candace Andersen Carroll Fife San Mateo County Supervisor, County of Contra Costa Councilmember, City of Oakland Cindy Chavez David Canepa Neysa Fligor Santa Clara County Supervisor, County of San Mateo Mayor, City of Los Altos Damon Connolly Keith Carson Leon Garcia Marin County and Cities Supervisor, County of Alameda Mayor, City of American Canyon Carol Dutra-Vernaci Cindy Chavez Liz Gibbons Cities of Alameda County Supervisor, County of Santa Clara Mayor, City of Campbell Dina El-Tawansy Otto Lee Giselle Hale California State Transportation Agency Supervisor, County of Santa Clara Vice Mayor, City of Redwood City (CalSTA) Gordon Mar Barbara Halliday Victoria Fleming Supervisor, City and County Mayor, City of Hayward Sonoma County and Cities of San Francisco Rich Hillis Dorene M. Giacopini Rafael Mandelman Planning Director, City and U.S. Department of Transportation Supervisor, City and County County of San Francisco Federal D. Glover of San Francisco Dave Hudson Contra Costa County Nate Miley Mayor, City of San Ramon Sam Liccardo Supervisor, County of Alameda Matthew Mahan San José Mayor's Appointee Karen Mitchoff Councilmember, City of San José Nate Miley Supervisor, County of Contra Costa Raul Peralez Alameda County Stephanie Moulton-Peters Councilmember, City of San José Gina Papan Supervisor, County of Marin Carlos Romero Cities of San Mateo County James P. Spering Mayor, City of East Palo Alto David Rabbitt Supervisor, County of Solano Loren Taylor Association of Bay Area Governments Vacant Councilmember, City of Oakland Hillary Ronen County of San Mateo Lori Wilson City and County of San Francisco Mayor, City of Suisun City Libby Schaaf Vacant Oakland Mayor's Appointee Cities in Sonoma County James P. Spering Vacant Solano County and Cities City and County of San Francisco Amy R. Worth (Mayor's Appointee) Cities of Contra Costa County Vacant Advisory Member U.S. Department of Housing Jayne Battey and Urban Development Board Member, San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality Control Board i Association of Bay Area Governments 375 Beale Street, Suite 700 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 www.abag.ca.gov | 415.820.7900 Metropolitan Transportation Commission 375 Beale Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 www.mtc.ca.gov | 415.778.6700 Draft Plan Bay Area 2050: Forecasting and Modeling Report Project Staff Dave Vautin Plan Bay Area 2050 Project Manager Lisa Zorn Forecasting and Modeling Project Manager James Choe, Benjamin Espinosa, Paul Fassinger, Shimon Israel, Shijia Bobby Lu, Aksel Olsen, Michael Reilly, Elizabeth Theocharides, Flavia Tsang, Yuqi Wang Regional Planning Program Forecasting and Modeling Report Contributors Acknowledgements Cover Design Miguel Osorio Editor John Goodwin Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................... 1 Findings Summary ................................................................................ 1 Chapter 1: Introduction .......................................................................... 3 Consistency with the Regional Housing Needs Allocation ................................. 4 Model System Overview ......................................................................... 4 Regional Growth Forecast and Land Use Model Interaction ..................................... 7 Land Use Model and Travel Model Interaction ..................................................... 9 Chapter 2: Regional Growth Forecast ....................................................... 10 Forecast Modeling Suite ....................................................................... 10 Modeling Context ............................................................................... 10 REMI Modeling ................................................................................... 11 Adjustments to REMI Baseline ....................................................................... 12 Integrating COVID-19 Pandemic and Subsequent Recession .................................... 14 Strategy Implementation ............................................................................. 14 Households ....................................................................................... 17 Income ............................................................................................ 19 Findings: Regional Growth Forecast Results ................................................ 20 Employment Growth and Change ................................................................... 21 Population Growth and Change ..................................................................... 21 Household Income Distribution ...................................................................... 22 Housing Production .................................................................................... 23 Chapter 3: Land Use Model .................................................................... 25 Bay Area UrbanSim 2 Land Use Model Application ........................................ 25 Model Estimation, Calibration and Review ................................................. 29 Input Assumptions .............................................................................. 29 Base Year Spatial Database .......................................................................... 30 Development Capacity ................................................................................ 34 Annual Business Totals ............................................................................... 35 Annual Household Totals ............................................................................. 35 Model Agents ........................................................................................... 36 Environmental Factors ................................................................................ 38 Baseline Policies ....................................................................................... 39 EIR Alternatives ................................................................................. 39 D r a f t Plan Bay Area 20 5 0 P a g e | i Growth Geography Framework ...................................................................... 40 Strategy Implementation ...................................................................... 43 Strategy H1: Further Strengthen Renter Protections Beyond State Law ..................... 43 Strategy H2: Preserve Existing Affordable Housing .............................................. 43 Strategy H3: Allow a Greater Mix of Housing Densities and Types in Growth Geographies 44 Strategy H4: Build Adequate Affordable Housing to Ensure Homes for All ................... 49 Strategy H5: Integrate Affordable Housing into All Major Housing Projects ................. 50 Strategy H6: Transform Aging Malls and Office Parks into Neighborhoods ................... 50 Strategy H8: Accelerate Reuse of Public and Community-Owned Land for Mixed-Income Housing and Essential Services ...................................................................... 53 Strategy EC2: Expand Job Training and Incubator Programs ................................... 55 Strategy EC4: Allow Greater Commercial Densities in Growth Geographies ................. 56 Strategy EC5: Provide Incentives to Employers to Shift Jobs to Housing-Rich Areas Well- Served by Transit ...................................................................................... 57 Strategy EC6: Retain and Invest in Key Industrial Lands ........................................ 57 Strategy EC7: Assess Transportation Impact Fees on New Office Developments ........... 58 Strategy EC8: Implement Office Development Caps in Job-Rich Cities ....................... 59 Strategy EN1: Adapt to Sea Level Rise ............................................................. 59 Strategy EN4: Maintain Urban Growth Boundaries ............................................... 60 Strategy EN7: Expand Commute Trip Reduction Programs at Major Employers ............. 62 Findings ........................................................................................... 62 Regional Land Use Outcomes ........................................................................ 62 Small Zone Outcomes ................................................................................. 65 Jobs-Housing Balance Outcomes .................................................................... 66 Housing Affordability Outcomes .................................................................... 66 Chapter 4: Travel Model ....................................................................... 68 Travel Modeling Suite .......................................................................... 68 Population Synthesizer ..............................................................................