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The Kremlin and Washington in the Levant - a Most Similar Comparative Case Study of the Actions by the United States and Russia in the Syrian Civil War

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The Kremlin and Washington in the Levant - a Most Similar Comparative Case Study of the Actions by the United States and Russia in the Syrian Civil War Bachelor thesis The Kremlin and Washington in the Levant - A most similar comparative case study of the actions by the United States and Russia in the Syrian civil war Author: Isak Flink Supervisor: Anders Persson Examiner: Daniel Silander Term: HT20 Subject: Political Science Level: Bachelor Course code: 2SK31E Abstract Ever since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war two countries have been outspoken about the situation, Russia and the United States. As the conflict has developed these two actors have been active within the conflict both militarily and diplomatically. This outlines the research problem, why these actors have had an interest in Syria. The aim of this research is to find explanations of why the two countries have acted like they have in the conflict. The actions and events are analyzed through several concepts drawn from two international relations theories, namely neoliberalism and neorealism. Some core concepts of the theories are operationalized into several indicators which make up the model used in the analysis. Furthermore, the thesis is considered as being a most similar comparative case study using qualitative methods. The main findings in the analysis shows that many of the actions by both Russia and the United States can be explained through both theories. Neorealism shows of being more suitable when explaining military events and neoliberalism is found to be better at explaining diplomatic or non-military matters. Key words Syria, Russia, United States, Neorealism, Neoliberalism, Foreign intervention Table of contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Research problem 2 1.2 Aim and research questions 3 1.3 Previous research 3 1.3.1 On Russia’s involvement in the Syrian civil war 3 1.3.2 On the United States involvement in the Syrian civil war 4 1.3.3 Joshua Landis and Syria Comment 5 2 Theoretical Framework 7 2.1 Neorealism 7 2.2 Neoliberalism 9 2.3 Model of analysis and operationalization 11 3 Methodology and Material 13 3.1 Research design and scope of the study 13 3.2 Material and Data collection 15 3.3 Validity and reliability 17 4 Analysis 18 4.1 Neorealism 18 4.1.1 Alliances 18 4.1.2 Capabilities 20 4.1.3 Intentions 22 4.2 Neoliberalism 25 4.2.1 Interdependence 25 4.2.2 International institutions 27 4.2.3 Soft power 29 5 Conclusion 31 5.1 Answers to research questions 31 5.2 Discussion 33 6 References 34 1 Introduction The Syrian civil war broke out in 2011 in the wake of the protests that swept through parts of the Middle East and North Africa in what now is called the Arab Spring. Before all out civil war broke out, protests reached Syria as well. The main event that triggered wide-scale protests occurred in early March of 2011. A group of teenagers had been arrested and tortured by the regime, after they had scribbled anti-government sentiments on the wall of their school in the town of Deraa. This event resulted in large-scale protests up against the Assad regime throughout the nation in multiple different cities (Abouzeid, 2018 p. 11-12, 16; Phillips, 2016 pp. 49-50). Crackdowns by the regime on the protests followed throughout 2011 and violence escalated between the regime and the opposition, which organized in the loosely connected Free Syrian Army the same year. Though, it is also important to note that rallies in favour of the Assad regime were also present, this shows the complexities of the situation even in the very early stages of the conflict (Phillips, 2016 p. 85). These events laid the foundation for what would later become the very multifaceted conflict, with many different groups and states active in the conflict. The Syrian opposition that started out as the loosely connected Free Syrian Army, has splintered into many different groups with different wills, except for the shared will of wanting the ousting of Assad. Secular, Islamist, Jihadi and Kurdish rebel groups has been formed in the years that has passed since the war started (Phillips, 2016 p. 129). One of the most known groups that swept through Syria and neighbouring Iraq was the Islamic State, which rise and fall occurred during the war (Phillips, 2016 p. 196). Furthermore, multiple nation states around the world have been active in the conflict following the uprising, most prominently Russia, Turkey, Iran and the United States. These actors have had different goals, sympathies and actions carried 1 out during the conflict. Two of these states will be looked further into in this thesis, Russia and the United States. These two countries both hold very important roles in the geopolitical game and their actions throughout the world shapes the geopolitical situation. In the last few years, the operations of these two countries have often been acted out in or in relation to Syria. Today, Syria is the only place in the world where fully equipped Russian and American military personnel can be found facing each other on the ground (BBC News, 2020; Detsch & Gramer, 2020; Seligman & Swan, 2020), this makes the case especially interesting. Since 2011, the tragedy of the conflict has displaced Syrians all over the world and has resulted in casualties in the hundreds of thousands (UCDP, 2020). 1.1 Research problem This thesis will be focused on two specific players and their actions in the region, the United States and the Russian Federation. Both states have held different sympathies in the conflict since the initial phase of protests in Syria. The US has aligned themselves with the Syrian opposition whilst Russia took a stance with the Assad regime (Lund, 2019 p. 20). In the duration of the conflict the actions of the US and Russia have been different in both their sympathies but also in the level of intervention in Syria. In 2014 the US announced the formation of an international coalition to defeat the Islamic State, mainly through cooperation with the Kurdish forces (Minardi, 2016 p. 184). Russia officially joined the war in September of 2015 siding with the Assad regime (Lund, 2019 p. 27). What can explain these two states differing alignments? What goals and motives might these two nations have had regarding the situation in Syria? The central research problem is thus to attempt to explain these two major players interests and actions in Syria. Further investigation of the subject of foreign intervention in the Syrian civil war could be argued to be highly relevant, both in the field of political science/international relations and in the interests of the public sphere 2 (Esaiasson et. al, 2017 pp. 33-34). The war has had effect throughout the world and has been called “[...] the worst man-made disaster the world has seen since World War II.” (OHCHR, 2017; Landis, 2017). A crisis of this large scale, that has led to millions of Syrians displaced around the world and leaving hundreds of thousands deceased (UCDP, 2020) is surely a case for further research to provide both the public domain and academia with further insight (Esaiasson et. al, 2017 pp. 33-34). 1.2 Aim and research questions The aim of this research is to compile and analyze the United States' and the Russian Federation's actions in Syria. Even though certain emphasis is put on the military actions by the states, other actions such as aid and general sympathies towards different factions in the conflict will be considered as well. The theories that will be applied in the analysis will be those of neoliberalism and neorealism. Both theories will be applied in the sense of attempting to explain the different events and actions within the Syrian civil war by the United States and Russia, through the theories. The two research questions that has been formulated for this thesis follows: • How can the Russian Federation's actions within the Syrian civil war be explained through the theories of neorealism and neoliberalism? • How can the United States actions within the Syrian civil war be explained through the theories of neorealism and neoliberalism? 1.3 Previous research 1.3.1 On Russia’s involvement in the Syrian civil war Ever since the start of the Syrian civil war many scholars have found interest in the conflict. Most of the scholarly work has been published in research journals, but there have also been multiple publications of papers and books have been published about the conflict even if the conflict is still active. Aron Lund (2019) has written about Russia's relationship with Syria as well as the 3 nations activities in the civil war. In his research paper ‘From Cold War to Civil War: 75 Years of Russian-Syrian Relations’ Lund raises the reasons on why Russia decided to back the Assad regime. Lund’s main finding on this question is that the Russian stance on Syria and the subsequent direct intervention in the war can be considered a countermeasure to the western powers and other global competitors. Lund expands this notion on the idea that Russia acted like it did to reassert its relevance as a substantial player in the international system (Lund, 2019a p. 18, 50-51). That is, the main motives of Russia in the conflict should not be interpreted as an overt fondness of keeping Assad in power, but rather an opportunity for Russia to demonstrate its power and military capabilities to its adversaries (Lund, 2019a p. 51). Lund’s previous research on the Syrian conflict will be considered in the thesis and is helpful for further insight in the Russian Syrian relationship. 1.3.2 On the United States involvement in the Syrian civil war The previous research on the role of the United States in Syria has not been covered as much in academia as the case of the Russian intervention.
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