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JP Residential 03 2021.Indd Japan - March 2021 Regional Residential SPOTLIGHT Savills Research Markets Retail sales in Beijing were up 4.4% year-on-year to RMB539.8 billion in 1H 2018 Regional Residential Markets Positive demographic trends provide sound fundamentals for some markets INTRODUCTION investment opportunities, the Japanese Summary Whilst the global pandemic and the residential market will likely continue to gain subsequent recession have thrown the real traction. • The Japanese residential estate market into turmoil, the Japanese That being said, competition for quality market has been attracting the residential market on the other hand, known assets remains fi erce. Compressed yields for interest of overseas investors as for its defensive nature, has been gaining residential properties in the nation’s capital as the global economy has been strong interest from global investors, well as limited opportunities will encourage disrupted by several events, especially in Tokyo. more investors to seek opportunities beyond including the pandemic. The attractiveness of the market is based on Tokyo and venture into regional markets to favourable funding conditions, as well as its achieve their yield targets. In this report, we focus our discussion • Greater Tokyo is undoubtedly stable political and economic fundamentals. These factors have stood out especially in on macro and micro demographic trends. the most popular market due to recent years as social disruptions, including In Japan, over 5 million people move from strong fundamentals supported COVID-19, were experienced around the one city to another every year1, more than by social and economic trends. globe. As the world economy remains clouded 1 This fi gure includes migration of non-Japanese. However, we have used demographic statistics of Japanese throughout the by uncertainty, and abundant liquidity seeks report, unless otherwise noted. • Regional hubs such as Osaka, Nagoya, and Fukuoka also pose opportunities as there is steady intra-regional migration fl ow to GRAPH 1: Expected Cap Rates for Residential Investment, 2003 to 2020 major regional cities. Osaka Nagoya Fukuoka Sendai Tokyo: Jonan Tokyo: Joto • The COVID-19 pandemic 9% has changed lifestyles and 8% preferences for residences, 7% possibly creating some long- lasting impact on the market. 6% 5% • Unlike the logistics market, 4% it may be worth considering why domestic investors, who 3% possess market insight and EXPECTED CAP RATE 2% plenty of capital, are not as enthusiastic about the 1% residential market. 0% 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 1H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2H 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source JREI, Savills Research & Consultancy GRAPH 2: Residential Investment Share by Investor, 2011 to 2020 Cross-Border Institutional Listed/REITs Private Unknown 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source RCA, Savills Research & Consultancy savills.co.jp/research 2 Regional Residential Markets the entire population of New Zealand. The migration of such a large amount of people has signifi cant implications for Japanese real estate markets, especially in residential As the COVID-19 pandemic has markets where population movements disrupted the real estate markets directly aff ect demand. By carefully analysing a multitude of globally, Japan’s residential sector is social and economic data, we have identifi ed drivers of major demographic trends and drawing the interest of investors due markets that have benefi ted from them. to its stable and defensive nature. Indeed, some regional cities show positive demographic trends and pose investment While Tokyo remains the most opportunities. popular market in the country, major RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTION regional cities that have exhibited TREND The transaction volume of residential sound demographic trends should properties in Japan has been increasing especially since 2018, and geographically, present opportunities especially to Tokyo is by far the most popular market in those who seek higher yields. Japan, followed by regional cities such as Osaka, Nagoya, and Fukuoka. In 2020, Tokyo accounted for 42% of total residential transaction volume while Osaka, Nagoya, and Fukuoka together accounted for 31%. This contrast highlights Tokyo’s about 50 to 100 basis points compared to followed by overseas institutional investors dominating position as the social and Tokyo, which makes venturing into regional such as Allianz, AXA Group, and Nuveen economic powerhouse of the country. markets an alternative for many investors. Real Estate. That said, yields have been compressing In terms of the investor profi le, overseas in the Tokyo residential market and our in- investors are increasingly active in this MACRO DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS house cap rates for mid-market residential market. Total transaction volume in this In a high-level summary, Greater Tokyo2 is property are 3.4% as of Q1/2021. With sector reached about JPY740 billion and the clear winner as the population infl ow increasing interest in this market, the rates over 60% of that was acquired by overseas to the market (921,000 in 2020) exceeds could compress further going forward. investors in 2020. According to Real Capital the outfl ow from the market (823,000 in Meanwhile, Japan Real Estate Institute’s Analytics (RCA), Blackstone was the top 2020) while, in all other markets, outfl ows (JREI) latest investor survey indicates player in terms of acquisition volume outweigh infl ows (Graph 3). As such, it that regional cities have yield premiums of between January 2019 and December 2020, is no surprise that most investment in Japan is targeting Tokyo, as discussed. In fact, with the exception of 1994 and 1995, Greater Tokyo has maintained positive net-migration since 1954, highlighting the region’s strong gravitational pull. GRAPH 3: Inter-prefectural Migration of Japanese by Region, 2020 One pull factor to Greater Tokyo is a high concentration of major companies in the Greater Nagoya capital. As illustrated in Graph 4, Tokyo 167,206 has an overwhelming share of large-scale Greater Osaka Greater Osaka 317,842 316,724 companies. In terms of nominal GDP, Tokyo alone recorded JPY108 trillion in FY2019, accounting for approximately 20% of the country’s GDP despite comprising only 10% Greater Tokyo 822,889 Greater Tokyo of the country’s population. This relation 920,894 between migration and economic strength is also clear in Graph 5, which illustrates that net-migration to Greater Tokyo fl uctuates in sync with corporate profi ts. This correlation is likely because when economic conditions Other Other weaken and companies reduce hiring, fewer 939,555 854,943 job seekers move to Greater Tokyo. Source Ministry of Internal Aff airs and Communications, Savills Research & Consultancy 2 In this report, Greater Tokyo includes Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama. 3 Regional Residential Markets GRAPH 4: Large-scale Companies per One Million People, 2016 Another primary migration driver is education. Tokyo has a high concentration 500 of top-rated universities, and high-school graduates will relocate from all over Japan 450 to attend them. Graph 6 illustrates that 400 prefectures in Greater Tokyo tend to 350 have high ratios of high-school graduates attending universities in the same region, 300 and consequently, had positive net-migration 250 fi gures in the age group of 15 to 19 years old. 200 In other areas, except for regional hubs such as Osaka, Kyoto, Aichi, and Fukuoka, high- MILLION POEPLE 150 school graduates have high tendency to go to 100 universities outside of their regions, resulting 50 in negative net-migration in this age group. LARGE-SCALE COMPANIES PER ONE LARGE-SCALE COMPANIES To summarise our discussion thus far, 0 Tokyo has been drawing people from across Japan largely due to employment opportunities and education. These factors are deeply rooted in the Japanese social Source Ministry of Internal Aff airs and Communications, Savills Research & Consultancy * Large-scale companies are defi ned by the Small and Medium Enterprise Agency’s criteria set for diff erent system and the long-term trend is unlikely to industries. For instance, in the manufacturing industry, large-scale companies are the ones with more than change, though economic cycles will likely 300 employees or the ones that are capitalised at more than 300 million yen. cause some ebbs and fl ows. Additionally, the recent trend of increasing foreign students GRAPH 5: Japanese Net-migration to Grater Tokyo and Corporate Profi ts, and residents should somewhat impact 1986 to Q2/2020 the overall demographic trend. This non- Net-migration to Greater Tokyo (LHS) Corporate profit (RHS) Japanese population may further accelerate 180 90 the trends we have identifi ed. As such, from a macro demographic 160 80 perspective, Tokyo and its surrounding 140 70 prefectures including Kanagawa, Saitama, 120 and Chiba have sound fundamentals that 60 JPY TRILLION 100 support their residential markets. 80 50 MICRO DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 60 40 While Greater Tokyo is undoubtedly at the 40 30 centre of Japan’s solar system and therefore THOUSAND PEOPLE THOUSAND 20 a primary destination of migration, over 50% 20 0 of migration actually takes place within the same prefecture. This pattern is apparent in -20 10 Graph 7 that compares net-migration fi gures -40 0 from within and without the same region where the city in question is located. Q3/19- Q2/20 Source Ministry
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