fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/oewatch Vol. 5 Issue #01 January 2015 Foreign Military Studies Office OEWATCH FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT RUSSIA Special Feature: The Kremlin’s Economic Checkmate Maneuver SPECIAL ESSAY LATIN AMERICA CENTRAL ASIA 75 The Kremlin’s Economic Checkmate Maneuver 22 Can Guerrillas be Defeated? 45 The State of Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces 23 How to End the Drug War 46 Incidents of Violence on Kyrgyzstan’s Borders: TURKEY 25 How the Neighbors See Venezuela A Year in Review 3 Realpolitik Drives Turkish-Russian Relations 26 Drones in Venezuela 47 What the Islamic State means for Central Asia 5 The Turkish Navy’s Operational Environment 27 The Proliferation of Narco Taxis 49 Islamic State Features Kazakh Kids in Syria and Vision in Chilpancingo de los Bravo, Guerrero 7 Turkish Army 2020 28 Social Media: The Impetus of Change behind RUSSIA Narco Communications in Mexico 50 Combat Robot Companies Enter the Table of MIDDLE EAST 29 11 Year-Old-Girl May be the Youngest Drug Mule Organization and Equipment 9 Supreme Leader Says America behind Ever Arrested by Authorities in Colombia 52 New Ground Forces Field Manuals Islamic Sectarianism, Radicalism May Better Align Tactics to Doctrine 10 Iran Expands Its Strategic Borders INDO-PACIFIC ASIA 54 Russia Touts Roles, Capabilities, and Possible 11 Supreme Leader Speaks to Graduating Army 30 Vanuatu: A Tiny Island Nation Can Create Ripples Targets for the Iskander Cadets 32 Maoist Insurgence in Modi’s India 56 The Future of Russian Force Projection: 12 The Islamic State’s Westward Expansion 35 Indo-Pacific Asia: Regional Combined Exercises Foreign Legionnaires? 14 Dayr az Zawr and Inherent Resolve 36 Thailand – Insurgency in the South: UPDATE 58 Russian Expert: Source of Radical Islamist 16 The State of Yemen’s Military Threat to Russia Comes from Central Asia KOREA 60 UK Report on Refugees in the South Caucasus: AFRICA 38 Expanding Korean-Russian Relations Armenian and Azeri Perspectives 18 Concerned about al-Shabaab, Ethiopia and 62 Russian Expert: Iran’s Perspectives on Kenya Consider Buffered Borders with Somalia CHINA Partnership with Russia 19 Kenya’s Rise in Intercommunal Attacks; 39 The Significance of Cold Weather Exercises 63 New Defense Minister in Belarus Hard to Quantify, Hard to Stop to the People’s Liberation Army 65 Russia’s Magic Radar 20 A Red Card for Morocco? Soccer, Ebola, 40 China: Using Joint Cooperation in Research 66 Commemorating Unknown Russian Soldiers and International Relations and Development to “Rebalance the World” 67 Gaining Leverage in Eastern Ukraine 21 Lagos: Is Africa’s Largest Littoral City under 42 Xi Jinping Stresses Military Loyalty in Light of 69 Marines in Russia’s Northern Fleet will Increase Threat? CMC Corruption in December 43 China’s Manufacturing Automation: 70 A Spark in the Finnmark? Driven by High Technology Necessity 71 Russia Federalizes Control over Arctic 44 China Frustrated with Turkey over Uighur 72 Russian Expert Assesses Its Vulnerabilities to Foreign Fighters and Broken Promises Cyber-Attacks 73 Russian Aerospace Force Expansion The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2’s Operational OE Watch Environment Enterprise and for over 25 Foreign News & Perspectives years has conducted open source research on foreign perspectives of defense and of the Operational Environment January | 2015 security issues, emphasizing those topics Volume 5 | Issue 01 that are understudied or unconsidered. Regional Analysts and Operational Environment Watch provides Expert Contributors translated selections and analysis from a diverse range of foreign articles and Africa Robert Feldman other media that our analysts and expert Middle East Michael Rubin contributors believe will give military Lucas Winter and security professionals an added Turkey Karen Kaya dimension to their critical thinking about the Operational Environment. China, Korea Cindy Hurst Youngjun Kim Tim Thomas Jacob Zenn Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, under copyright have not been used. All articles published India, Southeast Asia Ivan Welch in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) Mexico, South America Geoff Demarest media. Brenda Fiegel FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics to these articles to conform to organizational standards. Central Asia Matthew Stein Academic conventions, source referencing, and citation style are those of the author. Russia, Eastern Europe Chuck Bartles The views expressed are those of the author and Anna Borshchevskaya do not represent the official policy or position of the Christina Chadwick Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the Ray Finch US Government. Release of this information does not Les Grau imply any commitment or intent on the part of the U.S. Alyssa Jackson government to provide any additional information on any Emily Kangas topic presented herein. Greg Sarafian The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Contact FMSO at: usarmy.leavenworth.tradoc.mbx.fmso- Editors Ray Finch Harry Orenstein [email protected]. Design Editor Hommy Rosado Cover image provided by J. Holcomb TURKEY Realpolitik Drives Turkish-Russian Relations 9 December 2014 “Though Putin’s visit will be remembered for the South Stream announcement, what is most remarkable about it is the continued development of Russian-Turkish relations, amid mounting tensions between Putin and the West.” OE Watch Commentary: On 1 December the annual meeting of the High Level Russian- Turkish Cooperation Council took place in Turkey. Despite fundamental disagreements between Ankara and Moscow on important regional issues, including Syria, Egypt, and Ukraine, Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdoğan made important strides to increase bilateral trade and forge a closer energy partnership. The accompanying passages from the Turkish press discuss the significance of the visit. As these passages point out, the most significant outcome of the meeting was the announcement that Moscow dropped plans for the “South Stream” energy project and Russian President Vladamir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. proposed an alternative undersea pipeline Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Putin_and_Erdoğan.jpeg to Turkey. While some in the Turkish press expressed euphoria over the deal, others were Source: “Gürkan Kumbaroğlu, “Rusya’dan Türkiye’ye kazan-kazan önerisi” (A ‘win- more skeptical. For example, the first passage win’ offer from Russia to Turkey), Al Jazeera Turk, 5 December 2014, http://www. claims that this plan will turn Turkey into an aljazeera.com.tr/gorus/rusyadan-turkiyeye-kazan-kazan-onerisi energy hub and an important player in global energy markets, while increasing Turkey’s “This [pipeline to Turkey] will enable Russia to sell gas to Europe without being at the strategic importance vis-a-vis the European Union. On the other hand, the second passage European Union’s mercy. This is also a vision project that turns Turkey into an ‘energy warns of “overdependence” on Russia for terminal.’ The cancellation of South Stream and the suggestion that Putin made to Turkey’s energy needs, pointing out that, in Turkey will increase Turkey’s strategic importance in the eyes of the European Union. addition to Turkey’s dependence on Russia for … gas, Russia’s state-run atomic energy company will build Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, The Russian economy was deeply impacted by the sanctions in the aftermath of the whose construction is to start in 2015. Ukraine crisis and the Ruble has lost 30% of its value since the beginning of the year. Therefore Russia turned East and agreed with China on a project that would allow it to The second passage also notes that the export 68 billion cubic meters of gas. [And this project with Turkey] will allow Russia to meeting looked like a joint cabinet meeting, given the fact that both sides brought at least export gas to Europe without being dependent on the EU. ten ministers to the table. Written by expert … journalist Semih Idiz, the passage points out This project has the potential to make Turkey an important actor in the global energy that Turkey and Russia are getting closer due to the international isolation in which the two markets.” countries find themselves over a host of issues. (continued) The third and fourth passages focus on the fact that, despite disagreements on other issues and despite mounting tensions between Putin and the West, Turkish-Russian relations continue based on realpolitik. The third passage reminds the reader, however, that Turkey is a member of NATO, and, as such, Turkey’s OE Watch January 2015 3 TURKEY Continued: Realpolitik Drives Turkish-Russian Relations dependence on Russia for so much of its energy Source: Semih Idiz, “Animosity for the West Drives Erdoğan, Putin Closer,” Al-Monitor. needs puts it in a difficult situation: Turkey, com, 9 December 2014, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/12/turkey- unlike other members of NATO, did not impose russia-animosity-west-erdogan-putin.html sanctions on Russia after the Crimean crisis. End OE Watch Commentary (Kaya) “The international isolation in which the two countries find themselves over a host of issues is…pushing Moscow and Ankara closer… Turkish-Russia ties took an unexpected turn during Putin’s one-day visit to Ankara for the …High Level Cooperation Council [meeting], which was established in May 2010, and which once again appeared more like a joint Cabinet meeting with no fewer than 10 ministers on either side of the table. … Necdet Pamir, a leading Turkish energy expert underlined that, ‘This is not dependence on Russia for energy but overdependence. We are dependent up to our necks and now there are plans to increase this even more, including in the field of nuclear energy. This does not sound very rational,’ Pamir told Al-Monitor.” Source: Soli Özel, “Kuzeyden gelen ziyaretçi” (The visitor from the north), Haberturk.