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Objective Preliminary Assessment of Outburst Flood Hazard from Moraine-Dammed Lakes in Southwestern British Columbia

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Objective Preliminary Assessment of Outburst Flood Hazard from Moraine-Dammed Lakes in Southwestern British Columbia OBJECTIVE PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF OUTBURST FLOOD HAZARD FROM MORAINE-DAMMED LAKES IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA Robin James McKillop B.Sc., University of British Columbia, 2001 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE In the Department of Earth Sciences O Robin James McKillop 2005 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Fall 2005 All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. APPROVAL Name: Robin James McKillop Degree: Master of Science Title of Thesis: Objective preliminary assessment of outburst flood hazard from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia Examining Committee: Chair: Dr. Peter Mustard Associate Professor, Department of Earth Sciences Dr. John Clague Senior Supervisor Professor, Department of Earth Sciences Dr. Tracy Brennand Supervisor Associate Professor, Department of Georgraphy Dr. Matthias Jakob Supervisor BGC Engineering Inc. Dr. Jim O'Connor External Examiner U.S. Geological Survey Date Defended: SIMON FRASER 0~~~~~~dibrary DECLARATION OF PARTIAL COPYRIGHT LICENCE The author, whose copyright is declared on the title page of this work, has granted to Simon Fraser University the right to lend this thesis, project or extended essay to users of the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. The author has further granted permission to Simon Fraser University to keep or make a digital copy for use in its circulating collection, and, without changing the content, to translate the thesislproject or extended essays, if technically possible, to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation of the digital work. The author has further agreed that permission for multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by either the author or the Dean of Graduate Studies. It is understood that copying or publication of this work for financial gain shall not be allowed without the author's written permission. Permission for public performance, or limited permission for private scholarly use, of any multimedia materials forming part of this work, may have been granted by the author. This information may be found on the separately catalogued multimedia material and in the signed Partial Copyright Licence. The original Partial Copyright Licence attesting to these terms, and signed by this author, may be found in the original bound copy of this work, retained in the Simon Fraser University Archive. Simon Fraser University Library Burnaby, BC, Canada ABSTRACT An objective, remote sensing-based procedure is proposed to evaluate the outburst flood hazard posed by moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia. Outburst probability is estimated using an expression derived from statistical analysis of data collected from 175 moraine-dammed lakes in the southern Coast Mountains. Logistic regression identified four factors that correctly discriminate 70% of drained and 90% of undrained lakes: moraine height-to-width ratio, presencelabsence of an ice core in the moraine, lake area, and main rock type forming the moraine. Objective methods, which incorporate empirical relations applicable to the study region, are used to predict outburst peak discharge and debris flow volume, travel distance, and area of inundation. Outburst flood hazard is especially sensitive to lake level fluctuations and is greatest for large lakes perched on valley sides behind narrow, ice-free moraine dams composed of sedimentary rock debris. Keywords: outburst flood, moraine-dammed lake, debris flow, hazard assessment, British Columbia - To all who find happiness in mountains ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Numerous people have helped make this thesis possible. In particular, I would like to thank my supervisor, John Clague, for always being approachable and enthusiastic, and for providing me with the opportunity to present preliminary results of this research at the European Geosciences Union conference in Vienna. My supervisory committee members, Tracy Brennand and Matthias Jakob, provided direction during the early stages of research and introduced me to a variety of data analysis techniques. Jim O'Connor kindly provided aerial photographs and maps of breached moraine dams in Washington and Oregon; Ian Bercovitz gave statistical advice; and Jennifer Butler helped locate photographs in the B.C. Aerial Photograph Warehouse. I thank Michelle Hanson, Jeff Moore, Fred Touche, Dave Campbell, Tim Blair, Michael Morris, and Steve Yan-Klassen for their assistance in the field. Helicopter support was provided by John Goats (Pemberton Helicopters) and Mike King (White Saddle Air Services). I wish to thank Jasper Stoodley for GIs assistance and Nick Roberts for refreshing my photogrammetry skills. Christian Huggel, Andreas Kaab, and Jeffrey Coe offered valuable suggestions for this research. Funding for this research was provided by an NSERC Discovery Grant to John Clague, and I was supported by an NSERC Postgraduate Scholarship, as well as a C.D. Nelson Memorial Scholarship and Graduate Entrance Scholarship from SFU. Finally, I would like to thank my parents and my wife, Danielle, for their encouragement, support, and understanding. TABLE OF CONTENTS .. Approval ........................................................................................................................... 11 ... Abstract .............................................................................................................................III Dedication ..................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................v Table of Contents ............................................................................................................. vi ... List of Figures .................................................................................................................v111 List of Tables .................................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Research objectives .......................................................................................4 1.3 Terminology ..................................................................................................5 1.4 Thesis overview ............................................................................................7 Chapter 2: Statistical. remote sensing-based approach for estimating the probability of catastrophic drainage from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia ........................................................................................9 2.1 Abstract .........................................................................................................9 2.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Basis for a statistical. remote sensing-based approach ...............................13 2.4 Study area ...................................................................................................-16 2.5 Database development ................................................................................18 2.6 Candidate predictor variables ......................................................................25 2.7 Development of the predictive model .........................................................27 2.8 Modelling results .........................................................................................32 2.9 Predictive capability of the model ...............................................................35 2.10 Discussion ...................................................................................................40 2.10.1 Implications of the four-predictor-variable logistic regression ' model ....................................................................................................40 2.10.2 Implications of a drained lake classification ........................................ 44 2.10.3 Changes to outburst probability over time ...........................................46 2.10.4 Potential sources of error .....................................................................47 2.10.5 Applicability of results .........................................................................50 2.1 1 Conclusion ................................................................................................1 Chapter 3: A procedure for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia ........................................................................................................................... 53 3.1 Abstract ......................................................................................................-53 3.2 Introduction ..................................................................................................54 3.3 Flow characteristics of outburst
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