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Odd-Ball Winter Weather: Global Warming's Wake-Up Call for The

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Odd-Ball Winter Weather: Global Warming's Wake-Up Call for The Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming ’s Wake-Up Call for the Northern United States NATIONAL WILDLIFE FEDERATION 2010 Global warming is having a seemingly peculiar effect on winter weather in the northern United States. Winter is becoming milder and shorter on average; spring arrives 10 to 14 days earlier than it did just 20 years ago. But most snowbelt areas are still experiencing extremely heavy snowstorms. Some places are even expected to have more heavy snowfall events as storm tracks shift northward and as reduced ice cover on the Great Lakes increases lake-effect snowfalls. Even as global warming slowly changes the character of winter, we will still experience significant year-to-year variability in snowfall and temperature because many different factors are at play. Milder winters disrupt ecosystems in some surprising ways. Bitter cold temperatures naturally limit the spread of pests, diseases, and invasive species. The absence of extreme winter cold across the mountainous West has enabled an explosion of mountain pine beetles and caused a massive die-off of pine forests. Some important plants —– for example, walnuts, peaches, and cherries —– require a certain exposure to cold in order to flourish. Plants and animals also can be caught unawares when milder conditions are punctuated by severe winter weather. Across the Great Plains and Southeast United States, a cold snap in early April 2007 caused more than $2 billion in crop losses after an unusually warm March led to premature crop growth. Large economic uncertainty and potential losses are in store for many communities, especially in regions where winter recreation provides significant tourism revenue. Many ski resorts will see shorter, rainier seasons, which will negatively impact the $66 billion dollar industry and the tens of millions of Americans who ski each year. Lakes across the Midwest are freezing later and have thinner ice, often leading to ice conditions too dangerous for safe ice fishing. Roadway snow removal and wintertime flood management also will be complicated by more erratic winter weather; government agencies may have to account for much more year-to-year variability. We can keep winters cool and safeguard communities and nature. Curbing global warming pollution as much and as quickly as possible is an essential first step. At the same time, we need to take steps to help communities, winter-dependent industries, and wildlife prepare for some of the changes that we can not avoid. We can no longer plan l l i G based on the climate we used to have. m o T CONFRONTING GLORBAL WAeRMINpG ort Global Warming Makes e p t Winter Weather More Erratic y p p i k Global warming is having a seemingly storm tracks, and natural climate s : r peculiar effect on winter in the oscillations —–and because global e k c i l continental United States. On one hand, warming affects these variables in F increasing temperatures have led to different ways, scientists do not expect milder and shorter winters in most a steady progression to less wintery decreased by approximately 3 to 9 areas. On the other, we are still getting conditions. We are beginning to percent since 1978, with especially big snowstorms, especially in the understand how large climate rapid declines in the western United northern part of the country. oscillations, such as those associated States. 6 In North America, the largest Scientists project that the next few with El Niño conditions, affect winter declines have occurred during the decades will bring both more unusually weather. For example, El Niños typically spring. 7 At the same time, the last few warm winters and record-breaking bring milder, less snowy winters to the decades have brought fewer seasons snow storms. Projecting how global Pacific Northwest. 1 with extremely abundant snowfall and warming will affect winter in specific more seasons with extreme low total locations is complicated because MILDER WINTERS ON AVERAGE snowfall in most parts of the country. 8 winter temperatures are often close to Wintertime temperatures have been These trends are expected to continue. the freezing point of water: just a small increasing across the northern United For example, by the end of the century, amount of warming can make a big States. Since the 1970’s December- most of the Northeast is projected to difference when it comes to snow. If no February temperature increases have lose 10 to 15 snow-covered days each steps are taken to reduce global ranged from 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit month during winter, particularly warming pollution and it gets much in the Pacific Northwest to about 4 across the central part of the region. warmer, snowfall will become less and degrees Fahrenheit in the Northeast 2 Even the northern part of the region, less common after midcentury for to more than 6 degrees Fahrenheit in which is currently snow-covered for the many parts of the country. Alaska. 3 Winters are getting shorter, majority of winter months, could lose Even as global warming is slowly too. Spring arrives 10 to 14 days up to half of its snow-covered days. 9 changing the character of winter in the earlier than it did just 20 years ago. 4 In lieu of snow, many areas are now United States, we will still experience In addition, the date that rivers and getting increased precipitation from familiar year-to-year variability. lakes freeze over is later and spring- rain because of the warmer Because many different variables affect ice breakup is happening earlier. 5 temperatures. The proportion of winter conditions —–including The spatial extent of snow cover wintertime precipitation falling as snow temperature, moisture availability, across the Northern Hemisphere has has declined by 9 percent since 1949 in the Western United States 10 and by 23 percent in the Northeast. 11 This shift means less hassle with snow removal, but also an increase in flooding risk. One area of concern is flooding from the combined rainfall and snow melt, so-called rain-on-snow events, like several recent major flooding events in the Pacific Northwest. Some higher elevation areas in the West, where winter temperatures typically remain low enough to maintain snowpack, have seen a trend toward more rain-on-snow events, perhaps reflecting the increased likelihood of mid-winter rainfall events. Lower elevation areas in the West are T O D seeing fewer rain-on-snow events n o 12 g because there is less snowfall overall. e r O : r k c i l F GREAT LAKES ICE COVER 45 40 35 ) t n e c r 30 e p ( r e v 25 o C e c I 20 y l i a D e 15 g a r e v A 10 5 0 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 0 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 2 Despite significant year-to-year variability, wintertime ice cover in the Great Lakes has a long-term downward trend. The average December-May ice cover for the lakes has declined by about 17 percent per decade since the 1970s. 21 Reduced lake cover is contributing to larger lake-effect snowstorms. BIG WINTER STORMS more years with heavy snowfall. 16 vulnerable to increasing storm activity. Global warming is bringing a clear Some areas bordering the Great The Pacific storm tracks are expected to trend toward heavier precipitation Lakes are also experiencing more lake- shift northward, bringing more storms events for the simple reason that effect snow. Because the lakes are less to Alaska. At the same time, warmer warmer air can hold more water. Even likely to freeze over or are freezing later, surface ocean waters and reduced sea- with a greater fraction of precipitation surface water evaporation is recharging ice cover are projected to make more falling as rain, many areas are still the atmosphere with moisture, which heat and moisture available for storms, seeing big and intense snowstorms, 13 subsequently precipitates as more snow further increasing the frequency and especially in the upper Midwest and as it moves ashore. 17 For example, intensity of storms. 20 Northeast, where temperatures western New York state had a dramatic typically remain below freezing in lake-effect snowstorm in February 2007, winter. 14 At the same time, global when the largely ice-free Great Lakes warming is shifting storm tracks contributed to snow accumulation of northward. 15 The last few years have more than 10 feet over a 10-day brought several unusually heavy stretch. 18 Lake-effect snow is expected snowstorms as warmer and moister air to continue increasing over the next few over southern states has penetrated decades and then eventually decline as l further north, colliding with bitter cold rising wintertime temperatures lead to e s i 19 e air masses. Indeed, areas from the rain instead of snow. h u e n Dakotas eastward to northern Alaska’s extensive coastline and . m a Michigan have seen a trend toward coastal population are especially i l l i w : r k c i l F RECENT ODD-BALL WINTER EVENTS March 2009: The Red River October 2004: Hurricane- bordering North Dakota and strength storm originating Minnesota had its worst flood on March 2008: Madison, in the Bering Sea caused record, with the river cresting in Wisconsin reaches 100 inches $20 million in damages. Fargo, North Dakota at 40.8 feet. of seasonal snow accumulation, The loss of protective sea- Heavy rainfall the previous fall, smashing the previous record ice and melting permafrost large seasonal snow accumulation, of 76 inches.
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