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Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Rainfall in Hong Kong

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Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Rainfall in Hong Kong Geothermal heat and climate variability Wyss Yim Association for Geoconservation, Hong Kong / Climate Change Science Implementation Team, UNESCO’s International Year of Planet Earth 2007-2009 / Formerly HKU, CityUHK and CUHK Presentation to the Environmental Division, Hong Kong Institution of Engineers on December 28, 2018. This research work is a contribution to the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society Working Group of the Past Global Changes Project. Assisted by MSc Earth Systems Science students, Institute of Space & Earth Information Science, Chinese University of Hong Kong North Pacific Blob Chaitên 2008 Arctic sea ice Hunga 2014-5 2013-2015 and Calbuco 2015 2008-2017 eruption, Tonga eruptions, Chile Manuel Leung Kenneth To Alvin Wong Tina Yau Plan (1) Introduction (2) Case study of the 2008 Chaitén terrestrial eruption, Chile (3) Case study of the 10/2011-3/2012 El Hierro submarine eruption, Canary Islands (4) Case study of Pacific volcanism 2013-2015 (5) 2014-2016 ENSO and decadal Arctic sea ice variability (6) Conclusions What controls climate? 1st order Solar heat variability and other astronomical forcing e.g. glacial/interglacial cycles, monsoons and seasons 2nd order Geothermal or volcanic heat/plate climatology (James Kamis 2014) www.plateclimatology.com How geological forces affect the hydrosphere and atmosphere including terrestrial and submarine volcanic eruptions, their associated circulation changes and the release of methane and CO2 3rd order Human-induced changes including heat generation, water cycle changes and the emissions of greenhouse gases Known regional climatic variability additional to monsoons Arctic Oscillation AO Arctic Ocean pressure changes High pressure + phase Low pressure - phase North Atlantic Oscillation NAO Iceland/Azores pressure difference Iceland high pressure + phase Iceland low pressure - phase Madden-Julian Oscillation MJO Intraseasonal variability of tropical JET atmosphere 30-90 days stream changes Pacific Decadal Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Indian Ocean Dipole IOD East and west Indian Ocean Oscillation PDO QBO surface water temperature East and west Pacific Ocean Change in equatorial zonal wind difference surface water temperature between easterlies and westerlies West Indian Ocean warms + difference 28-29 months phase West Pacific cools + phase West Indian Ocean cools - phase West Pacific warms - phase Southern Annular Mode SAM Mid /high latitudes, Antarctic pressure changes caused by ozone hole Antarctic low pressure + phase Antarctic high pressure - phase Location map of Hong Kong Observatory Station, Pak Tam Chung Station, Hong Kong International Airport Station and Waglan Island Station * Best urban station and best rural station (Siu and Hart 2013) + Pak Tam Chung Station* 1995 – + Hong Kong + Hong Kong International Observatory Airport Station Station* 1997 – 1884 – 5 km ________ + Waglan Island Station 1952 – Comparison of number of cold days <= 12oC each winter HKO/HKIA/PTC/Waglan Island stations 1995-2017 _____________________________________________________________________ Year HKO HKIA PTC WI Year HKO HKIA PTC WI _____________________________________________________________________ 1995 17 nd 81 9 2007 32 36 75 0 1996 7 nd 70 2 2008 14 20 62 15 1997 11 25 51 5 2009 23 26 52 3 1998 4 10 45 8 2010 26 37 73 8 1999 23 26 72 0 2011 23 29 65 10 2000 5 23 59 15 2012 8 14 45 8 2001 9 16 53 1 2013 25 31 53 2 2002 11 26 49 2 2014 11 12 68 12 2003 19 25 66 2 2015 22 25 47 21 2004 24 30 59 13 2016 7 8 40 7 2005 20 26 48 16 2017 22 24 56 24 2006 9 13 48 5 _____________________________________________________________________ Source: HKO Comparison of cold day statistics at the HKO/HKIA/PTC and Waglan Island stations during 1995-2017 winters _________________________________________________________ HKO HKIA PTC WI _________________________________________________________ Characteristic Urban Airport Rural Maritime Overall range 7 – 32 8 – 37 40 – 81 0 – 24 Annual mean 16.2 22.9 58.1 8.2 _________________________________________________________ Based on HKO data Problems with the interpretation Best explained by urban heat island effect 1998-2015 pause 1966-1998 pause ↑ Chaitěn Strong ↑ 2008 ↑ ENSO Agung Pinatubo/Cerro 1963 ↑ Hudson 1991 El Chichōn 1982 years ↑ ↑ Bezymianny ↑ Santa Maria ↑ 1956 1902 Kharimkotan 1997-8 Novarupta 1936 1912 Currently 1 out of 50 stations ↑ Okataina 1886 ↑ Krakatau 1883 2014-6 Source: Hong Kong Observatory Mauna Loa solar radiation observations 1958-1994 cooling caused by major volcanic eruptions Agung 1963 Comparison Pinatubo/ Cerro Hudson 1991 El Chichón 1982 Highest SO2 VEI – Volcanic explosivity index Connection between the volcanic eruptions and rainfall in Hong Kong Agung 1963 VEI 4 Driest year on record Comparison Pinatubo/ Cerro Hudson El Chichón 1991 VEI 6 11th driest 1982 VEI 4 on record 2nd wettest on record VEI – Volcanic explosivity index Why study present day volcanic eruptions? Eyjafjallajökull (E15) April 14, 2010 eruption Most reliable record – Information ( Aviation safety age ( Meteorological observations Importance – Societal relevance, ( Satellite observations since ~1980 farming, climate model testing ( Media reports on climatic disasters NASA’s A-Train including CALIOP vertical profiles of aerosols ARGO ocean network of profiling floats since early 2000s Volcanic eruptions and their impacts (1) Terrestrial / sub-aerial - Switches on hot air initially followed by cooling (injection of ash, gases and aerosols; blockage of shortwave radiation; pressure changes; moisture redistribution; continental cooling; ozone depletion; circulation changes and severe weather events) lavas entering ocean cause warming (2) Submarine / sea floor - Switches on hot seawater (ocean warming; pressure changes; circulation changes; moisture redistribution; continental warming and severe weather events) Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) Estimation of explosiveness of terrestrial Above VEI 2 volcanic regional impacts eruptions on weather may already be (Newhall and Self detectable 1982) 8 Terrestrial Thermal plume Eruption changes model normal air circulation / ↑ creats clouds Ash & aerosols / destroys O3 reduces solar radiation SO2, HCl leading to & H O cooling 2 Warm air Cool air stores more stores less moisture – moisture water vapour redistribution → ← Cooler air Air pressure Impact changes (low) longer lasting if El Chichón, Mexico 1982 major USGS Submarine model* * Initially submarine later sub-aerial Examples studied – El Hierro, Canary Islands 10/2011-3/2012 Hunga, Tonga* 12/2014-1/2015 Nishino-shima, Japan* 3/2013-8/2015 Action – Switching on of hot seawater causing circulation changes (ocean, air including jet streams) El Hierro NASA May 2, 2008 Chaitén eruption, Chile VEI = 4 Argentina Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean Modis NASA Identified regional impacts on rainfall - A wet May/June in South Africa - A wet June in Australia including the continental interiors causing the flood of tourists to watch desert flowers blooming - Record rainfall in western Tasmania - Wettest June in Hong Kong since record began in 1884 (1346.1 mm or 346.8% above average including an 1 in 1100 year rainstorm with record hourly rainfall of 145.5 mm causing ~2400 landslides on Lantau Island) South African rainfall 11-31 May 2008 South African rainfall 1-20 June 2008 Comparison between average June rainfall with June 2008 rainfall over Australia attributable to the May 2, 2008 Chaitén eruption in Chile (Zhang et al., 2016) THE EXAMINER, Saturday, September 24, 2011 1 in 1100-year event causing ~2400 landslides on Lantau Island alone (CEDD, HKSAR Government 2009) Isoyhets in millimetres Supporting evidence - Eruption cloud height reached an altitude of over 21 km penetrating the stratosphere - CALIOP tracking of aerosols detectable over Southeastern Australia caused international flight cancellations first time around the globe - Eruption timing during the southern hemisphere autumn was favourable for aerosol transportation across the ITCZ second time around the globe - Volcanic debris impacted Hong Kong under southwest monsoon condition - E-folding time of 35 days found for SO2 conversion into sulphate from the study of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption was nearly perfect for the June 7, 2008 rainstorm El Hierro submarine eruption, Canary Islands October 2011-March 2012 • The discoloured water was at least 20-30km wide and 100km long • Spread southward Source: Luis Somoza et al. (2017) Source: Eugenio et al. (2014) What was the observed climatic impact of the hot seawater in the North Atlantic Basin overlooked by atmospheric scientists? Brownish plume created Source: Daily mail reporter (2011) Source: Daily Mail A new island emerged briefly from the sea along the coast of Restinga, Canary Islands Combined effect of the sun and El Hierro on SST on 28 June 2012 Greater warm seawater penetration Weather-related events or pattern in the North Atlantic Basin during 2012 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Date Affected region Events or pattern ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ April-July England and Wales Wettest summer in 100 years with annual rainfall of 1331 mm (115% above average) and severe flooding May-August Central North America Drought estimated damage US$30 billion; most severe since 1895 Summer Arctic Ocean Record low sea ice Summer Northern/central Europe Abnormally wet summer with
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