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Autos & Auto Parts Sector 16 July 2020 Equity Research Asia Pacific | Japan Autos & Auto Parts Sector Post COVID-19 global auto sector outlook Automobiles & Components | Connections Series Connections Series Summary: The global auto/auto parts sector has sustained a significant impact from The Credit Suisse Connections Series leverages our COVID-19, but we see signs of a gradual recovery. In this connection series, our auto exceptional breadth of macro and micro research to teams located globally have summarized updated views on each region, auto demand deliver incisive cross-sector and cross-border outlook, topics surrounding the sector following COVID-19 impact, and investment thematic insights for our clients. recommendations in each of our respected regional sectors. Research Analysts Sector overview: While we forecast 2020 global demand to drop significantly due to Masahiro Akita COVID-19, we see room for growth beyond 2021 and opportunities for multiple reratings 81 3 4550 7361 /overall positive performance in the markets. Considering the pace of recovery seen in [email protected] China and the US (two of the largest markets), our regional sector preference at this point Koji Takahashi is China > US, followed by Japan and Korea where names with high exposures to China 81 3 4550 7884 and US seem attractive. On the other hand, recovery from COVID-19 in emerging markets [email protected] has been relatively slow. With this in mind, we think recovery in India and Indonesia is more or less limited over the short term, but our expectations for medium-to-long-term growth in Bin Wang both markets remains unchanged. 852 2101 6702 [email protected] Global auto demand forecasts: Our latest forecast assumes that the 4.2% YoY Dan Levy downturn in global demand in 2019 will be followed by an even steeper 18.9% downturn in 212 325 4617 2020 due to COVID-19, with subsequent recovery of 12.4% growth in 2021. Of the two [email protected] major markets that have started to recover, we estimate for China –7.4% in 2020, +13% in 2021, while for the US –20.6%, +8.8%, respectively. On the other hand, volatility in Michael Sohn emerging markets is high, as we estimate for India –28% in 2020, +37% in 2021 and for 82 2 3707 3739 Indonesia –37.1%, +40.1%, respectively. [email protected] Post-COVID-19 trends in auto: Following a sharp decline in auto consumption around Satyam Thakur the world, authorities in major auto market have come up with additional auto stimulus 91 22 6777 3715 [email protected] policies hoping to revitalize demand/consumption, and we expect this to contribute to better than expected uptake in demand overall and penetration rates for NEVs. In addition, Robert Pranata we see an emerging trend where consumers are starting to prefer private transportation 62 21 2553 7976 given COVID-19. We believe this structural change will support auto demand going forward. [email protected] Our top picks: China (Geely Automobile (0175.HK)), US (Aptiv PLC (APTV); Lear Corporation (LEA); Magna International (MGA); General Motors Company (GM)), Japan (Honda Motor (7267); Aisin Seiki (7259); Stanley Electric (6923)), Korea (Hyundai Motor (005380.KS); Hyundai Mobis (012330.KS)), India (Maruti Suzuki (MRTI.BO)), Indonesia (Astra International (ASII.JK)). DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 16 July 2020 Sector overview Taking a step back and looking at stock market performance for CY20, global auto and auto parts sector underperformed in the beginning of April as concerns related to COVID-19 started to peak, but since then, recovered to levels slightly outperforming the benchmark. Looking back at the medium-term trend, both global auto and auto parts sectors have underperformed against the market since 2018 when global auto demand was at its peak. With these historical trends in mind, our current global demand outlook for 2020 assumes a drop of 19% YoY due to unforeseen COVID-19 impact, and room for growth beyond 2021. Our demand trajectory leaves room for possible reratings and positive performance from the auto sector. When we compare stock market performance of the auto sector by region, we notice that China and the US have outperformed. China showed quicker recovery following COVID-19, whereas the US showed trends in gradual recovery following demand bottoming in April. We expect the market to prefer names that have market exposure to these two regions. Given this, our regional sector preference at this point is China > US, followed by regions such as Japan and Korea where we think names with high exposures to China and US look attractive. Meanwhile, we see slower recovery from the pandemic in emerging markets, and thus think that recovery in the near term for India and Indonesia is more or less limited. Despite this, our expectation for medium-long term growth in both markets remains unchanged. Figure 1: Sector performance recovering to levels above the Figure 2: Medium-term trend shows underperformance versus market on CY20 vintage the market Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Credit Suisse Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Credit Suisse Figure 3: Expected demand growth to support performance Figure 4: Preference on China/US sector to continue Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Credit Suisse Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Credit Suisse Autos & Auto Parts Sector 2 16 July 2020 Figure 5: China auto sector valuation summary Share PER (x) PBR (x) ROE (%) EV/EBITDA Performance Target Potential Sector Ticker Company Rating Price (LC) Price (LC) Return 7/15/2020 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E 1M 3M 6M 12M China OEM 1211.HK BYD OUTPERFORM 79.0 60.0 -24.1% 58.7 83.8 76.7 1.7 3.3 3.2 2.9% 4.0% 4.2% 9.7 15.0 13.7 45.5% 79.7% 64.6% 61.6% 0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group OUTPERFORM 5.1 10.0 96.1% 4.4 2.5 2.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 10.4% 11.8% 9.5% 29.0 4.8 7.2 -2.1% -0.4% -26.1% -25.2% 0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings OUTPERFORM 17.7 17.0 -4.0% 15.3 22.5 14.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 16.5% 11.6% 16.0% 8.9 11.4 7.7 49.7% 51.3% 14.0% 44.8% 2333.HK Great Wall Motor OUTPERFORM 6.7 7.0 4.5% 10.4 13.5 10.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 8.4% 7.3% 8.9% 4.0 4.9 4.0 25.7% 34.0% 11.1% 15.5% 2238.HK Guangzhou Automobile Group OUTPERFORM 6.3 10.0 59.5% 13.6 6.8 6.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 8.4% 10.4% 10.6% 47.4 13.4 10.4 -3.4% -4.7% -33.3% -23.7% NIU.OQ NIU Technologies OUTPERFORM 19.1 25.8 35.0% 23.3 46.4 20.1 5.6 9.8 6.6 27.9% 23.7% 39.1% 21.9 34.1 13.3 51.1% 169.9% 110.0% 235.3% NIO.N Nio Inc OUTPERFORM 13.5 12.6 -6.8% -2.6 -14.5 -29.3 -4.6 -7.5 -6.0 -4201% 69.5% 22.6% -3.6 -20.5 -71.4 93.4% 321.2% 189.5% 293.0% 600104.SS SAIC Motor OUTPERFORM 19.2 27.0 40.6% 10.9 9.7 7.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 10.6% 9.0% 11.4% 11.6 11.9 5.6 7.9% 1.1% -22.4% -20.3% 600066.SS Zhengzhou Yutong Bus OUTPERFORM 13.7 16.5 20.9% 16.3 16.5 11.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 11.4% 10.6% 14.9% 9.4 9.2 6.8 15.6% 7.2% -11.2% 0.9% 1958.HK BAIC Motor NEUTRAL 3.8 3.6 -4.5% 7.8 7.6 7.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.3% 6.9% 6.9% 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 6.8% 14.6% -16.2% -29.1% 1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings NEUTRAL 8.1 9.0 11.1% 5.4 5.3 5.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 20.8% 18.8% 16.0% -36.8 -1304.8 10773.3 7.9% 15.4% 4.0% -4.6% 000625.SZ Chongqing Changan Automobile NEUTRAL 11.9 10.0 -15.8% -18.2 9.1 11.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 -5.9% 13.5% 9.5% 15.7 6.8 10.4 2.7% 19.7% 8.9% 66.5% 600418.SS Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group UNDERPERFORM 10.2 4.4 -56.8% 89.7 364.1 801.1 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 8.2 12.1 11.4 0.9% 106.3% 96.3% 100.6% 600733.SS Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology UNDERPERFORM 7.5 5.0 -32.9% 221.7 -45.0 -58.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.5% -3.4% -2.7% 21.6 29.4 24.9 8.1% 36.2% 4.6% -10.6% 000550.SZ Jiangling Motors UNDERPERFORM 14.7 7.7 -47.4% 80.6 28.6 26.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4% 4.1% 4.4% 2.6 2.6 2.1 15.5% 19.0% -5.1% -21.5% 3808.HK Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited OUTPERFORM 22.1 18.9 -14.5% 12.3 11.5 13.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 12.6% 16.8% 13.5% 3.6 4.2 4.2 12.9% 43.9% 33.8% 71.3% China OEM Average 34.3 35.5 57.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 -254.1% 13.4% 11.6% 9.6 -72.9 676.4 21.1% 57.1% 26.4% 47.2% Suppliers 0425.HK Minth Group Limited OUTPERFORM 23.5 27.7 18.1% 16.8 18.4 12.0 2.0 1.6 1.5 12.3% 9.0% 12.9% 10.4 10.1 7.3 10.9% 28.1% -13.9% -4.1% 1316.HK Nexteer Automotive Group Limited OUTPERFORM 5.3 7.4 39.4% 9.8 8.8 6.5 1.3 0.9 0.8 13.3% 10.4% 13.0% 4.2 2.9 2.2 -10.6% 17.7% -22.3% -38.7% 2338.HK Weichai Power OUTPERFORM 17.6 17.5 -0.8% 13.8 12.1 13.0 2.6 2.4 2.1 20.0% 21.4% 17.3% 5.7 5.5 5.1 25.8% 23.5% 11.5% 37.0% 0868.HK Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited OUTPERFORM 9.8 11.7 19.6% 9.3 9.6 8.3 2.0 1.7 1.6 22.7% 18.7% 19.6% 9.7 8.7 7.8 2.5% 9.9% -9.6% 23.8% 600741.SS Huayu Automotive Systems Co., Ltd NEUTRAL 23.5 21.5 -8.4% 12.7 13.1 12.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 13.6% 11.1% 11.0% 6.8 5.6 4.6 13.8% 12.3% -18.0% 1.5% 0179.HK Johnson Electric Holdings Limited NEUTRAL 16.4 16.0 -2.7% 7.5 -2.9 10.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 11.7% -22.9% 10.0% 4.3 2.4 3.6 15.8% 23.1% -11.1% 15.4% 600699.SS Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corporation NEUTRAL 24.6 18.6 -24.2% 24.0 73.8 31.2 1.8 2.5 2.3 7.4% 3.4% 7.6% 6.8 8.1 6.3 4.9% 20.7% 8.3% 53.6% 000581.SZ Weifu High-Technology Group Co., Ltd NEUTRAL 22.4 20.7 -7.7% 8.4 9.5 9.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 13.9% 13.5% 12.8% 14.7
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