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Suprajit Engineering Ltd INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH Initiating Coverage l Auto Anc l 3 March 2020 INDIA Suprajit Engineering Ltd. ReportA consistent Name: performerQ2FY20 Update with l Sectorample Name growth: Auto opportunities l 3 March 2020 Suprajit Engineering Ltd (SEL) is a 35 year old, Bangalore based, niche manufacturer of mechanical control cables (80% of Revenue – 31% Exports, 49% Domestic) and automotive bulbs (20% of revenue – 10% Exports, 10% Domestic). 73% of its Mechanical control cable Rating: Buy Upside/(Downside): 22.6% (MCC) revenue comes from the auto sector - domestic 2W OEM being the biggest segment Current Price: 192 Target Price: 235 Despite challenges in the demand environment, TVS Motor Company (TVS) reported good where It has ~80% market share and is the only large listed player in this space. Our positive performance on all fronts during 2QFY20. The reported profit jumped by 21% YoY to Rs2,550mn | Market Data onview account on the of company a) lower effective stems from tax rate the offact 17.8%s that: in 1)Q2FY20 It is gradually vis-à-vis 31.0%gaining in marketQ2FY19, share b) better in high Bloomberg: SEL:IN operationalvolume, high performance, realisation c) 4W higher space, other 2) incomeAcquisition and d) of exceptional Osram’s facilities gains of willRs760mn. spur its2HFY20 Phoenix 52-week H/L (Rs): 247/146 isLamps expected division to be andbetter help than introducing 1HFY20 with bulbs reasonable in new growth segments in exports 3) T hereand presence are huge of untappedlevers foropportunities margin improvement. in afterm arketHowever, & exports we believe which current SEL is valuations actively pursuing already discount4) SEL plans most to of expand the Mcap (Rs bn/USD bn): 28/0.4 positivesinto newer of the segments better product in non mix,-auto growth MCC at exportand 5) front Suprajit and margin is steered improv ementby able and & hence ethical Shares outstanding (mn): 140 offermanagement, limited upside a much from-desired here. aspect We assign in today’s accumulate time. Werating initiate with ourtarget coverage price ofon Rs. SEL 474 with a Free float: 56.0% (21xFY21EBUY rating EPS). and a target price of Rs 235, offering an upside of 22.6% from the current levels. Avg. daily vol. 3mth 0.09mn (3M Avg.): ImprovementDominance among in margins 2Ws despite OEMs ,sales enhancing decline share in 4Ws to lift volumes & realisation Face Value (Rs): 1 . SEL’s low-cost production, superior quality & trust among OEMs has led to consistent Group: Nifty 500 increase in domestic 2W OEM MCC market. Revenues share. declined by 13% yoy, higher Source: Bloomberg, EISEC Research . Its focus is now to gain market share in 4Wsthan (current our estimates,share is ~30 %),while where realization the number of cables required as well as realisation is higherincreased as compared by 6.9% to YoY2W. & 1.4% QoQ. Total volumes degrew by 18.5% YoY in | Shareholding pattern (%) Revitalizing Phoenix Lamps Division (PLD) Dec-19 Sep-19 Jun-19 Mar-19 . Phoenix acquired Osram’s India facility, whichQ2FY20. is a big breakthrough. Catering to Osram’s Promoter 44.6 44.6 44.5 44.5 domestic & export demand would lift .PLD’s EBITDA volumes marginand eventually stood margins at 8.8% as well. in FIIs 11.3 13.0 12.0 11.4 . Additional opportunities for PLD is to startQ2FY20 supplying (+20bps bulbs YoY to tractors,& +80bps construction QoQ) DIIs 6.8 5.5 5.1 5.6 equipment industry and extend product offeringsmajorly beyond due headlamps. to softening of Public/others 37.3 36.9 38.4 38.5 Massive domestic aftermarket potential commodity prices, better mix and Source: AceEquity, EISEC Research . Mostly unorganised & highly fragmented, localisationaftermarket providesbenefits. a huge opportunity. SEL has a small presence here and has been. takingThe seriousimprovement steps to expand in margins its reach. was | Price Performance (%)* . This will enhance overall profitability as marginsdespite are lower higher volumes in aftermarket in Q2FY20 compared and to OEMs business. YE Mar (R) 1M 3M 12M 36M we expect the benefits of soft Exports market will continue to provide growthcommodity opportunities prices to continue in Nifty 500 -4.9 -6.3 0.1 19.3 . Currently SEL’s 41% revenue comes from comingexports (quartersAuto MCC as-11 well.%, Non -Auto MCC 20%, SEL -3.7 7.1 -2.5 -7.9 nd PLD-10%) to 50+ countries and SEL plans to expand it further. The exports margins are *as on 2 Mar 2020; Source: AceEquity, EISEC Research Sentimentshigher improving; than selling outlook directly positive to OEMs & domestic aftermarket. In MCC, SEL is exploring growth opportunities in international market product-wise, . The festivals started on a slow note, segment-wise as well as geography-wise particularly in the aftermarkets which currently but picked up during the last few days does not contribute much. In PLD, SEL is only present in the aftermarketof Navratri/Dussehraand is targeting to supply post to clarification OEMs. on GST, good monsoon & attractive Exploring growth opportunities in non-auto MCCpricing/offers. Currently SEL’s major non auto MCC revenue comes from North America where it had acquired Wescon and has plans to expand. Auto in Europe, industry South is looking America forward besides exploringfor a opportunities in domestic market. better Diwali. On the back of . SEL is exploring opportunities to grow its nonimprovement auto MCC inin medical rural devicedemand, equipments, the consumer durable industry and many moreoutlook sectors wherefor Q4FY20 mechanical and cables Q1FY21 are used. is good. Well diversified and consistent performer Trading @ Attractive Valuation . SEL has been continuously diversifying its revenue stream and has come a long way from Exportsa contributingsituation where well 2W OEM’s accounted for 96.50% of its revenues (FY02) to current Amit Hiranandani revenue mix of 4Ws (22%), 2Ws (36%),. aftermarketTVS exports (21%) of and 2Ws non -asauto well (21%). as 3Ws . SEL has a strong 10 yr growth track record - FY09-19 Sales/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of Senior Research Analyst outperformed the industry’s growth +91 22 6192 5342 23%/25%/31% respectively. This is way better than overall industry performance. rate. [email protected] . We estimate its Sales/EBITDA/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 8%/7%/10% FY19-FY22E. Awanish Chandra . SEL during last five years has been trading atWe an averagebelieve onegrowth-year forwardmomentum PE multiple at of Head of Research 22.7x. However, looking at the uncertainty exportin the auto fronts industry, to continue we have assignedon account a lower +91 22 6192 5345 multiple of 18.5x to its FY22E EPS (~19%of discount) sufficient to arrivedollar at availabilitya target price and of Rs [email protected] 235/share. Hence, we recommend ‘BUY’. stabilization of currency, along with an excellent product portfolio. Y/EAll setMar for (Rs a mn)smooth Revenue BS6 transition YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj PAT YoY (%) Fully DEPS RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY18 Beat estimates14,311 on all counts;19.0 2,365maintain 16.5 Accumulate 1,385 21.8 9.9 23.5 16.6 28.4 17.9 FY19 15,899 11.1 2,328. TVS is 14.6going to 1,338launch BS6- 3.4products 9.6 18.7 14.0 25.0 15.7 FY20E 15,905 0.0 2,164 November13.6 20191,307 onwards in- 2.3a phased 9.3 15.8 12.5 20.5 13.5 FY21E 17,858 12.3 2,504 manner14.0 and would1,513 cut down15.7 its BS410.8 16.0 12.9 17.7 11.4 FY22E 20,197 13.1 2,882 inventories14.3 much1,776 ahead17.4 of the12.7 16.5 13.4 15.1 9.4 Source: Company, EISEC Research Estimates transition date. EISEC. ResearchThe inventor is also availabley is at normal on Bloomberg level of and five Thomson Reuters weeks. Initiating Coverage Index Investment thesis in charts ............................................................................................ 3 Dominant player in 2W domestic cables with 80% share in OEMs .................................. 5 Enhancing presence in four-wheelers to lift volumes & realisation ................................. 8 Revitalizing Phoenix Lamps division ............................................................................. 12 So far story endured painful for Lamps division .............................................................. 13 What’s next in the store...? ............................................................................................. 13 Automotive lighting industry ....................................................................................... 15 Gigantic aftermarket potential .................................................................................... 16 Potential for aftermarket cable industry ......................................................................... 16 Additional opportunities for Phoenix in aftermarket ...................................................... 17 Enormous opportunities in exports .............................................................................. 19 Exploring new opportunities in non-auto cables .......................................................... 21 Well diversified across segments, customers, products, location and brand ................. 24 Strategic past acquisitions - a step towards diversification ............................................. 26 Company background .................................................................................................. 27 Company milestones ....................................................................................................... 28 Key takeaways from the past annual reports .................................................................. 31
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