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Supplementary Materials Demographic Research: Volume 38, Article XX Supplementary materials Projections of all subregions The graphs in this document show the observed and projected TFR for all subregions in our data, each country as a separate subsection, sorted in alphabetical order. The red line in each plot shows the observed data followed by the median projection, while the shaded area shows the 80% predictive interval for that subregion, obtained by the Scale-AR(1) method. The grey line and shaded area show the same quantities for the corresponding country, i.e. the national projections used as input to the subnational projections. 1. Argentina 3.5 6 Buenos Aires Catamarca Chaco Chubut Argentina Argentina Argentina Argentina 5 5 3.0 4 4 4 2.5 3 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 3 2.0 2 2 2 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 3.5 3.5 Capital Federal Cordoba Corrientes 4 Entre Rios Argentina Argentina 5 Argentina Argentina 3.0 3.0 4 2.5 3 2.5 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 2.0 2.0 2 1.5 2 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 3.5 6 Formosa Jujuy La Pampa La Rioja Argentina Argentina Argentina 5 Argentina 5 5 3.0 4 4 4 2.5 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 3 3 2.0 2 2 2 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 6 3.5 Mendoza Misiones Neuquen Rio Negro Argentina Argentina Argentina Argentina 5 5 4 3.0 4 4 2.5 3 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 3 2.0 2 2 2 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 Salta San Juan San Luis 4 Santa Cruz 5 Argentina 4 Argentina Argentina Argentina 4 4 3 3 3 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 2 2 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 3.5 5 Santa Fe Santiago del Estero Tierra del Fuego 5 Tucuman Argentina Argentina Argentina Argentina 5 3.0 4 4 4 2.5 TFR TFR TFR 3 TFR 3 3 2.0 2 2 2 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 http://www.demographic-research.org 1 38-XX: Supplementary materials 2. Australia 3.5 Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Northern Territory 3.5 Queensland Australia Australia Australia Australia 4 3.0 3 3.0 2.5 3 2.5 TFR TFR TFR TFR 2 2.0 2.0 2 1.5 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 3.5 3.5 South Australia Tasmania Victoria Western Australia 3.5 Australia 3.5 Australia Australia Australia 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 TFR TFR 2.5 TFR TFR 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 3. Austria 3.2 3.0 Burgenland Carinthia Lower Austria Upper Austria Austria Austria Austria Austria 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 TFR TFR TFR 2.0 TFR 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 3.0 3.0 Salzburg Styria Tyrol Vorarlberg Austria Austria 3.0 Austria 3.0 Austria 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 TFR TFR TFR TFR 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 2.8 Vienna Austria 2.4 2.0 TFR 1.6 1950 2000 2050 2100 4. Belgium 2.7 2.7 2.7 Reg. de Bruxelles-capitale Region flamande Region wallonne Belgium Belgium Belgium 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 TFR TFR TFR 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 2 http://www.demographic-research.org 38-XX: Supplementary materials 5. Brazil Acre Alagoas 8 Amapa Amazonas Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil 7.5 7.5 6 6 5.0 5.0 TFR TFR 4 TFR TFR 4 2.5 2.5 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 8 Bahia Ceara Distrito Federal Espirito Santo Brazil Brazil 6 Brazil Brazil 6 6 6 5 4 TFR 4 TFR 4 TFR TFR 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 Goias Maranhao Mato Grosso 6 Mato Grosso do Sul Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 2 2 2 2 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 8 8 Minas Gerais Para Paraiba Parana Brazil Brazil Brazil 6 Brazil 6 6 6 4 TFR 4 TFR 4 TFR 4 TFR 2 2 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 8 Pernambuco Piaui 6 Rio de Janeiro 8 Rio Grande do Norte Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil 6 6 6 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 4 4 2 2 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 Rio Grande do Sul Rondonia 8 Roraima Santa Catarina Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil 7.5 6 6 4 5.0 4 TFR TFR TFR 4 TFR 2 2.5 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 8 6 Sao Paulo Sergipe 6 Tocantins Brazil Brazil Brazil 5 6 4 4 TFR TFR 4 TFR 3 2 2 2 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 http://www.demographic-research.org 3 38-XX: Supplementary materials 6. Bulgaria 2.5 North-West 2.5 North Central 2.5 North-East 2.5 South-East Bulgaria Bulgaria Bulgaria Bulgaria 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 TFR TFR TFR TFR 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 2.5 South-West 2.5 South Central Bulgaria Bulgaria 2.0 2.0 TFR TFR 1.5 1.5 1.0 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 7. Canada 4 4.0 Alberta British Columbia Manitoba New Brunswick 4.0 Canada Canada Canada Canada 3.5 4 3.5 3 3.0 3.0 3 TFR TFR TFR 2.5 TFR 2.5 2 2.0 2.0 2 1.5 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 4 4.0 7 Newfoundland and Labrador Northwest Territories 4 Nova Scotia Nunavut Canada Canada Canada Canada 6 3.5 3 5 3.0 3 TFR TFR 4 TFR TFR 2.5 2 3 2 2.0 2 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 4.0 4.0 Ontario Prince Edward Island Quebec Saskatchewan 4.0 Canada Canada Canada Canada 3.5 3.5 4 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3 TFR 2.5 TFR TFR 2.5 TFR 2.5 2.0 2.0 2 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 5 Yukon Canada 4 TFR 3 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 4 http://www.demographic-research.org 38-XX: Supplementary materials 8. Chile Arica and Parinacota Los Rios Aisen del General Carlos Ibanez del Campo Antofagasta 6 5 Chile 5 Chile Chile 5 Chile 5 4 4 4 4 TFR 3 TFR 3 TFR TFR 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 Araucania 6 Atacama Bio-Bio Coquimbo 6 6 Chile Chile Chile 6 Chile 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 6 Los Lagos Magallanes y Antartica Chilena Maule 6 Chile Chile 5 Chile 6 Chile 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR 3 TFR 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 Region Metropolitana de Santiago Tarapaca Valparaiso 5 Chile 5 Chile 5 Chile 4 4 4 TFR 3 TFR 3 TFR 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 http://www.demographic-research.org 5 38-XX: Supplementary materials 9. China 6 Shanghai_Urban 6 Shanghai_Rural 6 Shanghai_HP 6 Shanghai_LW China China China China 5 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 2 2 2 2 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 Shanghai_XH 6 Shanghai_CN 6 Shanghai_JA 6 Shanghai_PT China China China China 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 2 2 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 Shangha_ZB 6 Shanghai_HK 6 Shanghai_YP 6 Shanghai_MH China China China China 5 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 2 2 2 2 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 Shanghai_BS 6 Shanghai_JD 6 Shanghai_PD 6 Shanghai_JS China China China China 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 2 2 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 Shanghai_SJ 6 Shanghai_QP 6 Shanghai_NH 6 Shanghai_FX China China China China 5 5 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 Shanghai_CM 6 Shanghai_NS Anhui 6 Beijing China China 6 China China 5 5 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 6 Chongqing 6 Fujian Gansu Guangdong China China 6 China China 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 TFR TFR TFR TFR 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 Guangxi 7 Guizhou 6 Hainan 6 Hebei China China China China 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 TFR TFR 4 TFR TFR 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 6 http://www.demographic-research.org 38-XX: Supplementary materials 9.
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