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Long Term Low Emission Development Framework of Armenia Transport Sector

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Long Term Low Emission Development Framework of Armenia Transport Sector EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL AND DIRECTIONS FOR LONG TERM LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK OF ARMENIA TRANSPORT SECTOR. REPORT BORIS DEMIRKHANYAN YEREVAN 2020 The objective of the report is to outline the assessment of emission reduction potential of Armenia’s transport sector; and to recommend the directions for long term low emission development framework for the sector. This publication has been prepared with the financial support of the European Union. The "EU4Climate" UNDP-EU regional program is held liable for the content, and the views and opinions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union. "EU4Climate" UNDP-EU regional program CONTENTS 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Climate Change and GHG emission ............................................................................................. 3 3. Transport Sector ............................................................................................................................ 6 4. Armenia Transport Sector ............................................................................................................. 7 4.1. Infrastructure....................................................................................................................................... 8 4.2. Fleet ................................................................................................................................................... 10 4.3. Fuel consumption structure ............................................................................................................. 11 5. Global Tendencies for GHG emission reduction in transport sector .......................................... 12 5.1. Both short- and long-term transport mitigation strategies are essential if deep GHG reduction ambitions are to be achieved. ................................................................ 13 5.2. Barriers to decarbonizing transport for all modes differ across regions, but can be overcome in part by reducing the marginal mitigation. ........................................... 14 5.3. There are regional differences in transport mitigation pathways with major opportunities to shape transport systems and infrastructure around low-carbon options, particularly in developing and emerging countries where most future urban growth will occur. .................. 15 5.4. A range of strong and mutually-supportive policies will be needed for the transport sector to decarbonize and for the co- benefits to be exploited. ..................... 15 5.5. The major drivers that affect transport trends are travel time budgets, costs and prices, increased personal income, and social and cultural factors. ....................................................... 18 5.6. Technological improvements and new technology-related practices can make substantial contributions to climate change mitigation in the transport sector: ....................... 19 5.7. Aggressive policy intervention in different sectors (Sectoral policy) is needed to signifi- cantly reduce fuel carbon intensity and energy intensity of modes, encourage travel by the most efficient modes, and cut activity growth where possible and reasonabe: ........... 24 6. Best Practices. Comparative analyses ......................................................................................... 28 7. Recommendations for GHG emission reduction in Armenia ..................................................... 38 7.1. System infrastructure and modal choice ....................................................................................... 42 7.2. Fuel carbon intensity ....................................................................................................................... 43 7.3. Energy intensity ................................................................................................................................ 43 7.4. Activity and Behavioral Issues ....................................................................................................... 44 7.5. Cooperation Frameworks ................................................................................................................ 45 8. Monitoring and Reporting .......................................................................................................... 45 9. Conclusions................................................................................................................................. 47 References .......................................................................................................................................... 48 Page 1 of 52 "EU4Climate" UNDP-EU regional program 1. Introduction The countries of the world have joined forces under the auspices of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was agreed in 1992 and entered into force in 1994, and the Kyoto Protocol to that Convention, which was agreed in 1997 and took effect in 2005. These nations (196 parties to the UNFCCC and 192 parties to the Kyoto Protocol) work within the boundaries of the Framework Convention in order to coordinate measures for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. With mutual concern of all the countries it was decided to restrain the rise in the average temperature of global atmosphere to the maximum of 2 degrees above the pre-industrial levels (year 1850), while at the same time trying to not exceed 1.5 degrees. On February 9, 2017, Doha Amendment to Kyoto Protocol was also ratified. This document allows to continue implementation of projects in the frames of Clean Development Mechanisms, as well as use financing of Adaptation Fund established within the frames of Kyoto protocol. The Paris Agreement, that came into effect on November 4, 2016, and 189 countries ratified it as of February, 2020, has legal force and imposes climate change restrain measures on all the states worldwide. All parties are invited (Article 4/19) to develop mid-century long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LEDS). The Article 54 of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement between the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community and the Republic of Armenia (CEPA) has envisaged to cooperate, inter alia, in development of a low- carbon development plan, development and implementation of long-term measures to mitigate climate change by addressing emissions of greenhouse gases, taking measures to mainstream climate considerations into sector-specific policies. On February 9, 2017, National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia ratified the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which entered into force on April 22, 2017. The Republic of Armenia stated its position on the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions in subsequent national communications to the UNFCCC and in the Republic of Armenia’s Statement on Association with Copenhagen Accords and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). Within the framework of the EU4Climate Programme (Programme) governments in the six EU Eastern Partner countries - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine must take action against climate change. It supports countries in implementing the Paris Climate Agreement and improving climate policies and legislation. Its ambition is to limit climate change impact on citizens’ lives and make them more resilient to it. As a result of the Programme, UNDP will support the Government of Armenia to develop and approve a low emission development strategy by 2021. The transport sector is considering one of the key and dynamically growing sectors in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thus, the Programme addresses the sector as part of strategy on long-term low emission development. Page 2 of 52 "EU4Climate" UNDP-EU regional program 2. Climate Change and GHG emission Climate change is currently considered as one of the greatest challenges to mankind in the 21st century. A changing climate has a range of potential ecological, physical and health impacts, including extreme weather events (such as floods, droughts, storms, and heatwaves); sea-level rise; altered crop growth; and disrupted water systems. Over the last few decades, global temperatures have risen sharply - to approximately 0.7℃ higher than our 1961-1990 baseline. The weather study1, analyzing the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia, highlighted the maximum temperature increase of up to 1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. This rise in global average temperature is attributed to an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Over the long period of 3,000 years, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 did not exceed 300 parts per million (ppm). This changed with the Industrial Revolution and the rise of human emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels. We see a rapid rise in global CO2 concentrations over the past few centuries, and in recent decades in particular. Almost all warming can be attributed to human emissions. Climate change is a global issue, and measures designed to reduce it cannot be successful unless the nations of the world act together in a coordinated and harmonious manner. GHG emission volumes differ from different chapters of the Globe. 1 Long Term Variability of Temperature in Armenia in the Context of Climate Change. Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfica,
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