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The Future of Semiconductor Industry – a Foundry's Perspective – Proprietary & Confidential The Future of Semiconductor Industry – A Foundry's Perspective – Dr. F.C. Tseng Vice Chairman TSMC January 24, 2008 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary & Confidential Outline z Semiconductor Market Outlook z Challenges and Solutions Economic Technology z Summary 2 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary Semiconductor Market Will Continue to & Confidential Grow Year Growth 60% ’02 +1% 40% ’03 +18% 21% 16% ’04 +28% 20% ~8% 5% ’05 +7% Growth 0% ’06 +9% -20% ’07 +4% ’08E +7~9% -40% ‘70 ‘75 ‘80 ‘85 ‘90 ‘95 ‘00 ‘05 ‘10 ‘15 Year Source: SIA 3 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary Steady Market Expansion & Confidential Increasing semiconductor penetration in electronics Data Processing 20.9% 27.2% 28.8% Communications 13.5% 16.4% 18.8% Consumer 12.6% 16.3% 19.5% Electronics ‘01 ‘05 ‘10E Year Source: WSTS, IC Insights, TSMC estimates 4 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Increasing Semiconductor Content in Proprietary & Confidential Systems – Functionalities and performance LCD Mobile Automotive Headset ? ? ? 1.3x$95B $1,025B $77B 1.8x $61B 10x $33B $98B LC LC FH u LC Co Luxur In 4G 2. 3G HD 5G te D D D m llig D p y a e c n t Source: Gartner, iSuppli, Strategy Analytics t 5 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary New Applications as Growth Drivers & Confidential 100 1 Consumer PC Electronics End User (3C Convergence) 1/100 Units / Minicomputer 1/10000 Mainframe ‘70 ‘80 ‘90 ‘00 ‘10 Year 6 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Demand from High-end and Low-end Proprietary & Confidential Markets More Functionality 9 Voice 9 Video 9 Voice 9 Messenger Functionality 9 SMS 9 GPS 9 Voice 9 WAP 9 Wi-Fi 9 Camera 9 PDA 9 MP3 ‘90 ‘00‘ ‘05 Year 9 Voice 9 Voice Lower Price Price 7 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary In Search of A PC to Serve “The Next & Confidential Billion” z The low-cost PCs for the developing nations: INTEL ASUS One Laptop Per Child “ClassMate” “Eee” “XO” 8 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Growth Opportunities are Global Feature-rich & connected Product Focus Basic functions Price/ Feature/ 9 Performance © 2007 TSMC, Ltd So urce: “The fortu Spectrum Advanced n e at the b Emerging o ttom of the pyramid” (Base Developingo Population f th (millions) e Py & ConfidentialProprietary by C. K. Pr ramid) 800 ahalad, an 1,500 d I M 4,000 F Proprietary Plenty of Opportunity Ahead & Confidential 265 255 US Semi / Person = ~$250 245 11 65 10 55 9 45 8 35 Semi $ / Person 7 25 China & India Semi / Person = ~$20 6 15 World Population (Billion) 5 5 4 -5 ‘80 ‘85 ‘90 ‘95 ‘00 ‘05 ‘10 World Population Worldwide average semiconductor $ per person Source: US Census Bureau; IC-Insights; TSMC estimates 10 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary & Confidential Outline z Semiconductor Market Outlook z Challenges and Solutions Economic Technology z Summary 11 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary & Confidential Challenges Economic Technology 1. Huge CapEx 4. Nanometer Manufacturing 2. ROI Risk – Process 5. Nanometer Design 3. ROI Risk – Product 6. Design Complexity 12 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary 1. Huge CapEx & Confidential z Capital expenditure for constructing a new fab is rapidly increasing Major factor for financing and future profit 15 $8B ? (GigaFab with 10 100K WPM) $3B 5 (30K WPM) $0.4B $1B (20K WPM) Capital cost of fab ($B) (20K WPM) 0 6-inch 8-inch 12-inch 18-inch 13 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Solution – Foundry Based Business Proprietary Model & Confidential z Many IDMs are changing to either fab-lite of fabless z A wide variety of consolidation and collaboration are inevitable PastPast PresentPresent FutureFuture Design Product IP Fabless IP Design Focused Vendor Fabless Product Vendor Service IDM Foundry Few Manufacturer IDM Foundries Getting Few Assembly Distribution Fab-lite Assembly IDMs & Test & Test OEM Vertically IDMs in Transition, Few IDMs & Foundries, Integrated Fabless Getting Bigger Many Fabless 14 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd 2. ROI Risk – Process Proprietary & Confidential z Incremental challenges in developing next generation processes z Process technology development costs are continuously increasing 2.0 ? 1.5 $1.4B $1.1B $0.9B lopment cost ($B) 1.0 e $0.7B $0.5B 0.5 0 Technology dev 0.13um 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm 22nm Development Cost Ramp-up Cost 15 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary 2. ROI Risk – Process (Cont’d) & Confidential z Yield ramp-up requires significant time and investment In-house manufacturing Foundry has the economy of scale with limited products 100% 0.13um 90% 90nm 0.25µm 65nm 80% 0.18µm 0.13µm 90nm 45nm 70% 65nm 32nm 25%25% Q-Q-to-Qto-Q Normalized Yield 60% ImprovementImprovement 50% 12Year ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 16 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary Solution I – Technology Alliance & Confidential z Collaboration is required to overcame ever – increasing financial as well as technical challenges IMEC Matsushita 17 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Solution II – Collaboration among Proprietary & Confidential Foundry, IP/EDA Vendors, And Design Service Suppliers z Standardization of IP & EDA tools IDM IP & Design Service EDA Foundries 18 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary 3. ROI Risks - Product & Confidential z Design complexity and cost increase rapidly z Short time to market 40M 40 80 $70M 30 27M 60 $48M 20 40 16M Gate Count (M) Design Cost ($M) 10 9M $18M 20 $9.2M 0.13um 90nm 65nm 45nm Gate Count Design Cost 19 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary Solution - Product & Confidential z Optimal system partition z Foundry Design Infrastructure SPICE PDK Foundation IP Prototyping Cybershuttle MLM Minimize the product risk and NRE 20 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary 4. Nanometer Manufacturing & Confidential z New materials and device structure High-K gate dielectric Metal gate 3D FINFET Low-K Interconnect z New EDA solutions for technology modeling and advanced lithography 21 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Solution – Technology Modeling / Proprietary Advanced Lithography & Confidential z Secure accurate SPICE modeling STI Systematic WPE effect Strained silicon effect Accuracy OPC Random Corner model effect Statistical model z Modeling in new material, 3D device and equipment / topography z Polarization, OPC, double exposure and mask 3D effects Collaborate with EDA vendors to achieve seamless interfacing hierarchy 22 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary 5. Design for Nanometer & Confidential z Increasing systematic / parameter / random yield loss due to process variation Physical patterning effects, open and short, etc. Chemical and mechanical impact, planarity, antenna effect, and via opens, etc. Timing, signal integrity and voltage drop z Increasing leakage (quantity, source, variation) 23 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Solution – Accurate DFM Proprietary & Confidential z Model & simulation-based approach for physical and electrical DFM that represents Manufacturing accurately Physical DFM Identify hot spot, fix it and improve geometric yield. Electrical DFM Identify electrical performance deviation, correct it and improve paramedic yield Yield CAA/LPC Statistic Design STA CMP Time Set-up standard interface between phase and design which is design and layout phase 24 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary Solution – DFM Ecosystem & Confidential z Foundry to set up DFM ecosystem and open license DUF to reduce cost z Standard interface between the design infrastructure and manufacturing Example: TSMC/GUC + EDA Alliance IP/Lib Alliance TSMC DCA Alliance TSMC DFM Compliance Initiative 25 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Solution – Low Power Proprietary & Confidential z Aggressively develop integrated low power solutions for dynamic and leakage power reduction Low power process Advanced processes with ELK/XLK die-electric: lower voltage, smaller geometry and capacitance for dynamic power reduction HK/MG and gate CD bias for leakage reduction Low power IP Full set of low power foundation IP, dual power SRAM Low power design Reference Flow Silicon proven design methodologies for TSMC IP and processes Voltage scaling (DVFS, AVS), power gating with data retention Low power design automation enabling Develop vertically integrated solution from system-level to layout and to process 26 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary 6. Design Complexity & Confidential z Increased design complexity causes longer time-to- market and requires significant effort for verification and software design Communication Device 4G Mobile Multimedia Device Full HD Moore’s Law HD 3G Complexity Current Design Productivity D1 2G VGA ‘95 ‘00 ‘05 ‘10 ‘15 ‘20 Year 27 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Main Stream vs. Proprietary ESL Co-development Environment & Confidential GPrime Platform DDireirectct VectVectoror LocaLocall StStataticic SDRSDRAAMM Memory Interrupt Memory Memory Controller CPCPUU Memory Interrupt Memory Memory Controller AcAccecessss ControlControllerlerControlControllerlerControlControllerler (4(4--CCH)H) APAPBB BrBrididggee Electronic AAMMBBAA M Muultlti-i-lalayyeerr A AHHBB Main Stream AMAMBBAA A APPBB System DAI KB DAI PWM GPIO KB WDT I2C Timer SSI RTC UART (I2S) PWM GPIO MOUSE WDT I2C Timer SSI RTC UART Level (ESL) (I2S) MOUSE z Architecture Exploration z Software Profiling z Hardware Profiling ICE z Power Estimation Network 28 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary Solution – ESL & Confidential z New ESL design technology to address design complexity, and to provide massively parallel heterogeneous MPSOC design z SIP and 3D packaging can integrate large capacity memory and analog circuit with short time to market and low cost z Develop product with chip and PC board at same time to improve success rate Collaborate with EDA vendors 29 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary Summary & Confidential z Semiconductor market growth will continue but moderate z Future growth opportunities will be global but bifurcate z High ROI risks in design, fab, and technology could be alleviated with the integrated foundry model z Close collaboration is required between EDA vendors, foundry and IC companies 30 © 2007 TSMC, Ltd Proprietary & Confidential Thank You www.tsmc.com © 2007 TSMC, Ltd.
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