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Economic Analysis of the EU Market of Tobacco, Nicotine and Related Products

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Executive Agency for Health and Consumers Specific Request EAHC/2011/Health/11 for under EAHC/2010/Health/01 Lot 2 Economic analysis of the EU market of tobacco, nicotine and related products Revised Final Report 20 September 2013 Economic analysis of the EU market of tobacco, nicotine and related products Disclaimer This report was produced under the Health Programme (2008-13) in the frame of a contract with the Executive Agency for Health and Consumers (EAHC) acting on behalf of the European Commission. The content of this report represents the views of Matrix Insight and is its sole responsibility; it can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Commission and/or EAHC or any other body of the European Union. The European Commission and/or EAHC do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this report, nor do they accept responsibility for any use made by third parties thereof. In keeping with our values of integrity and excellence, Matrix has taken reasonable professional care in the preparation of this report. Although Matrix has made reasonable efforts to obtain information from a broad spectrum of sources, we cannot guarantee absolute accuracy or completeness of information/data submitted, nor do we accept responsibility for recommendations that may have been omitted due to particular or exceptional conditions and circumstances. © Matrix Insight Ltd, 2009 Any enquiries about this report should be directed to [email protected] Matrix Insight Ltd. | 20 September 2013 2 Economic analysis of the EU market of tobacco, nicotine and related products Contents 1.0 Executive summary 10 2.0 Introduction 18 3.0 Market overview 20 3.1 Sales 22 3.1.1 Cigarettes 22 3.1.1.1 Discussion of Findings 25 3.1.1.2 Illicit trade 27 3.1.1.3 Blends 30 3.1.2 Menthol Cigarettes 31 3.1.3 Roll-Your-Own Tobacco 33 3.1.4 Cigars and Cigarillos 37 3.1.5 Pipe Tobacco 40 3.1.6 (Smokeless) Tobacco Products 42 3.1.7 Electronic Cigarettes 48 3.1.8 Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRTs) 54 3.1.9 Herbal/traditional smoking cessation aids 55 3.1.10 Tobacco growing 56 3.1.11 Manufacturing 61 3.1.11.1 Cigarettes 61 3.1.11.2 Roll-Your-Own Tobacco 62 3.1.11.3 Cigars and Cigarillos 63 3.1.11.4 Smokeless tobacco 66 3.1.11.5 Electronic Cigarettes 66 3.1.12 Retail 67 3.1.12.1 Tobacco Products 67 3.1.12.2 E-cigarettes 70 3.1.13 Wholesale 71 3.1.14 Employment 71 3.1.15 Industrial Cost Structure of the Tobacco Industry 78 3.1.16 Industry Dependence on the Tobacco Products Industry 80 3.2 Trade 84 3.2.1 Intra-EU Trade 84 3.2.1.1 Cigarettes 84 3.2.1.2 Roll-Your-Own Tobacco (RYO) 85 3.2.1.3 Cigars and Cigarillos 86 3.2.2 Extra-EU Trade 88 3.2.2.1 RYO 88 3.2.3 Trade in Smokeless Tobacco 91 3.2.4 Trade in E-cigarettes 91 4.0 Dimensions of the TPD Review 93 Matrix Insight Ltd. | 20 September 2013 3 Economic analysis of the EU market of tobacco, nicotine and related products 4.1 Packaging and Labelling 93 4.1.1 Introduction 93 4.1.2 Baseline regulatory position 94 4.1.3 Single market considerations 94 4.1.4 Industry response 94 4.1.5 Conclusions 97 4.2 Flavours and Ingredients 98 4.2.1 Introduction 98 4.2.2 Baseline regulatory position 103 4.2.3 Single market Considerations 105 4.2.4 Industry Response 105 4.2.5 Conclusions 106 4.3 Non-Combustible Tobacco Products 107 4.3.1 Introduction 107 4.3.2 Baseline Regulatory Position 107 4.3.3 Single market considerations 107 4.3.4 Industry Response 107 4.3.5 Conclusions 108 4.4 Nicotine Containing Products (‘e-cigarettes’ and other alternative nicotine delivery mechanisms); 109 4.4.1 Introduction 109 4.4.2 Baseline Regulatory Position 110 4.4.3 Single market considerations 113 4.4.4 Industry Response 114 4.4.5 Conclusions 116 4.5 Tobacco Vending machines 117 4.5.1 Introduction 117 4.5.2 Baseline Regulatory Position 120 4.5.3 Single Market Considerations 120 4.5.4 Industry Response 120 4.5.5 Conclusions 121 4.6 On-line sales. 121 4.6.1 Introduction 121 4.6.2 Baseline Regulatory Position 123 4.6.3 Impact Domains 123 4.6.4 Single Market Perspective 124 4.6.5 Conclusions 124 5.0 Economic Analysis of Impact on Reduction in Tobacco Consumption on Employment 125 6.0 Bibliography 144 7.0 Appendices 148 Matrix Insight Ltd. | 20 September 2013 4 Economic analysis of the EU market of tobacco, nicotine and related products 7.1 Appendix 1: Stakeholders Contact List 149 7.2 Appendix 2: Summary of Industry Responses to Questionnaire 150 7.3 Appendix 3: Smoking Prevalence across the EU 163 7.4 Appendix 4: Calculation of the Total Variable Costs For Packaging and Labelling 164 7.5 Appendix 5: Interviews Topic Guide 165 7.6 Appendix 6: Market value of tobacco across EU-27 166 7.7 Appendix 7: I-O Multipliers per Industry 168 7.8 Appendix 8: Hypothetical Example of I-O model 175 7.9 Appendix 9: Employment-Output Ratios 178 7.10 Appendix 10: Employment Results 181 7.10.1 Results: Reduction in tobacco consumption of 1.0 per cent 181 7.10.2 Results: Reduction in tobacco consumption of 1.5 per cent 182 7.10.3 Results: Reduction in tobacco consumption of 2.0 per cent 185 7.11 Appendix 11: Glossary 187 7.12 Appendix 12: Example of online retailers which might target EU customers in different Member States. 189 Matrix Insight Ltd. | 20 September 2013 5 Economic analysis of the EU market of tobacco, nicotine and related products List of Figures Figure 1: Comparison of relative market value of tobacco products in 2010.............................. 20 Figure 2: Cigarettes market size across EU27, in billion sticks, 2000-2010 ............................... 22 Figure 3: Cigarettes market size in eight largest EU markets, in billion sticks, 2000-2010 ........ 23 Figure 4: Cigarettes market value across EU27, in billion EUR, 2000-2010 .............................. 24 Figure 5: Cigarettes market value in eight largest EU markets, in billion sticks, 2000-2010 ...... 25 Figure 6: 2011-2015 Forecast EU27 cigarettes market size (in billion sticks);2011-2015 forecast EU27 cigarettes market value (in billion EUR) ............................................................................ 25 Figure 7: Total smoking prevalence rates, eight largest volume markets, in per cent, 2000-2010 ..................................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 8: Aggregated volume of illicit trade in EU24 (in million sticks) over entire time period 2000-2010. .................................................................................................................................. 27 Figure 9: Percentage change in illicit trade of cigarettes (in million sticks), 2000-2010 ............. 28 Figure 10: EU24 Illicit market of cigarettes (in million sticks), 2000-2010, Euromonitor Forecasts 2011-2015 ................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 11: Illicit trade as a percentage of all cigarettes traded over entire period between 2000 and 2010...................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 12: EU24 Cigarettes market size (in billion sticks) by blend, 2000-2010......................... 30 Figure 13: Menthol cigarette sales as a percentage of all cigarettes sales over the entire time period 2000-2010 ........................................................................................................................ 31 Figure 14: EU24 Percentage change in the market size of menthol cigarettes, 2000-2010 ...... 32 Figure 15: Volume of standard and menthol cigarettes sales across EU 24, (2000-2015) ........ 32 Figure 16: Roll-your-own tobacco market size, EU27, in thousand tonnes, 2000-2010, forecast 2011-2015 ................................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 17: Country components of total EU27 market size in RYO tobacco, per cent, 2010..... 35 Figure 18: RYO Tobacco market size in eight largest markets, in thousand tonnes, 2000-2010 ..................................................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 19: Roll-your-own tobacco market value, EU27, in billion EUR, 2000-2010 ................... 36 Figure 20: Cigars and cigarillos market size, EU27, in billion units, 2000-2010 ......................... 37 Figure 21: Cigars and cigarillos market value, EU27, in billion EUR, 2000-2010....................... 39 Figure 22: Pipe tobacco market size, EU27, in million tonnes, 2000-2010, forecast 2011-201540 Figure 23: Country components of total EU27 market size in pipe tobacco, per cent, 2010...... 41 Figure 24: Pipe tobacco market value, EU27, in million tonnes, 2000-2010, forecast 2011-2015 ..................................................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 25: Danish chewing tobacco market (in tonnes), 2000-2010, Euromonitor forecast 2011- 2015............................................................................................................................................. 43 Figure 26: Slovenian chewing tobacco market (in tonnes), 2000-2010, Euromonitor forecast 2011-2015 ................................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 27: Danish chewing tobacco market value (in million EUR), 2000-2010, Euromonitor
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