FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK MAURITANIA A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. TEL: (222) 25 39 18 FAX: (222) 25 39 18 E-mail: [email protected] MONTHLY REPORT FOR JANUARY 2002 RAPPORT MENSUEL DU MOIS DE JANVIER 2002 This report covers the period from December 20, 2001 to January 22, 2002 Summary Winter rains in Trarza, Brakna, and Gorgol Regions (Wilaya) are responsible for sizeable losses of livestock and crops and have claimed a number of lives. Rotting grasses and plants and losses of small stock animals are forcing herders to hasten the start of their seasonal treks, particularly in areas where conditions were already unstable (in Mederdra and northern R’Kiz Districts (Moughataa). The dispersion of animals escaping the untimely rains is expected to further heighten the sudden, erratic migratory movements reported during December in areas affected by brush fires but spared by the January rains. The only grasslands still in good condition are in Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, and eastern Assaba Regions. There are still no sightings of locusts. Despite ongoing harvests, paddy rice and sorghum prices are soaring. Prices in farming areas of the country such as Selibaby in Guidimakha (120 UM per kg of sorghum) and Bababé in Brakna (125 UM per kg) have reached highs that the country has not seen since the 1972 crisis. Ongoing harvests of irrigated crops and the consumption of flood-recession crops (crops grown on river banks and in bottomlands and "walo" crops grown along the Senegal River) have helped postpone any deterioration in the food security of households growing rainfed millet and watermelon crops. Food supplies are becoming increasingly inaccessible throughout the northern part of the country and in urban slum areas in the face of steadily rising prices for staple foods. Fish and meat prices have leveled off during December. The opening of retail outlets by the National Import and Export Company (SONIMEX) selling grain at subsidized prices continues to curb price speculation and help stabilize prices for other food items. I. NATURAL CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION FACTORS I A. RAINFALL Continuing rains in the northern reaches of the country (Tiris Zemmour, Adrar, Tagant, and Inchiri Regions) are helping to spur the growth of new vegetation in grazing areas. In contrast, untimely heavy rains in the southwest (Trarza, Brakna, and Gorgol Regions) are responsible for massive losses of livestock and crops and have claimed a number of lives (Table 1). Table 1: Rainfall data for the period from January 9 to 11, 2002 WILAYA MOUGHATAA SITE 09/01/02 10/01/02 11/01/02 TOTAL TRARZA R'KIZ R'kiz 43 8.5 8 59.5 Tekane 40 40 Lexeiba 2 20.7 83.5 3.6 107.8 KEUR MACENE Keur Macene 30.5 21.1 51.6 N'diago 37.7 37.7 ROSSO Rosso 38 7 45 Jedrel Mohguen 37.5 25 62.5 MEDERDRA Mederdra 52 52 BOUTILIMIT Boutilimit 42.2 18.9 61.1 OUAD NAGA Ouad Naga 57.2 57.2 BRAKNA BOGHE Boghé 17.5 17.5 Dar El Barka 30.7 27.2 10.2 68.1 ALEG Aleg 7.5 38 45.5 Male 9 35 6.5 50.5 MAGTA LAHJAR Magta Lahjar 2.5 33.2 16 51.7 Dionaba 32 8 40 BABABE Bababé 2.5 18 49 69.5 M'BAGNE M'bagne 7 18 40 65 GORGOL KAEDI Kaëdi 30 30 Toufounde Cive 17 13 30 M'BOUT M'bout 10.7 12.4 23.1 MONGUEL Monguel 36.9 36.9 TAGANT MOUDJERIA Moudjeria 3 44.3 47.3 TIDJIKJA Tidjikja 6 6 Rachid 5 11 9 25 ASSABA BARKEOL Barkéol 18 5 23 Source: Ministry of the Interior and AGRHYMET I B. GRAZING CONDITIONS Heavy rains between January 9-11 flooded most grazing areas in Trarza and Brakna Regions and the western half of the Gorgol Region. Grazing conditions, which had been good up until that point, will deteriorate as inundated grasslands begin to rot or to lose their nutritional value. Moreover, the mass deaths of cattle and small stock animals have ruined numerous herders and eroded the ability of many agropastoralists and pastoralists to cope with shortfalls in grain production. The only grazing areas spared are in the Table 2: Preliminary Assessment of Losses southeast, where brush fires from the January Rains had forced herders to abandon their traditional Region Sheep & Goats Cattle Camels migratory routes. Trarza 32,346 3,638 98 Brakna 45,000 8,117 891 The districts hardest hit by Gorgol* 6,000 1,630 0 these losses of stock animals Source: CSA (Food Security Commission)/FEWS NET were R’kiz and Keur Macene in Trarza; Boghé, Bababé, * Data for Gorgol apply only to the northwestern part of Kaëdi M’Bagne, Aleg and Magta- District and the southern and western portions of Monguel District. Lahjar in Brakna; and Monguel and Kaëdi in Gorgol. I C. PRODUCTION FACTORS BY TYPE OF FARMING SYSTEM There have been major changes in production factors as a result of financial problems (irrigated crops) and water-related factors (in the case of walo or flood-recession and lowland crops). Lowland crops: Harvests of rainfed lowland crops are winding up and yields are lower than expected, apparently as a result of poor water balances in most depression and upstream areas. Submersion times were extremely short and adherence to traditional crop calendars prompted farmers to begin planting their crops at the beginning of November — or barely one month after the submersion period started in late September to early October. It is highly unlikely that the January rains will do any good for late-maturing lowland crops, which were beginning to show signs of water stress. In any event, crop production in these areas cannot possibly offset losses engendered by the flooding of other croplands. Caterpillars of the pink stem borer (Sesamia calamistis) have been sighted in lowland areas of Barkéol District in Assaba and Monguel District in Gorgol, but infestation levels are clearly lower than in previous years. Area farmers explained how they had burned their fields before planting any crops and attribute the lower infestation levels to this fact. Present crop conditions in Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, and Assaba, as well as in small depression areas of Adrar are mostly as anticipated. Irrigated crops: Harvests of irrigated crops continue throughout Trarza, where shortages of harvesting and thrashing equipment have slowed operations. Actual production figures have clearly fallen short of projections by the Ministry of Rural Development and Environment (MDRE), owing to both smaller areas planted in irrigated crops and mediocre yields. The largest contraction in the size of areas planted in irrigated crops occurred on privately owned commercial farms. Farming communities throughout the region put most of their efforts into growing vegetable crops, at the expense of rice-growing activities. Crop production on lands worked as village farms in Brakna and Gorgol showed no improvement due to the use of poor- quality seeds, limited use of fertilizer, and infrastructure-related problems. The best crop performance in these three regions was in irrigated areas managed by the National Rural Development Agency (SONADER). • In Trarza, the January rains caused extensive damage to rice crops. Crop losses have been assessed by the regional office of the Ministry of Rural Development and Environment (MDRE) at 45 percent of total yields from the 7,496 hectares planted in crops (up from the 1,309 ha planted in 2001). • In Gorgol, any damage was confined to the Gorgol Pilot Irrigated Areas (PPG), which were in the midst of harvesting their crops, since most village farms had switched over to growing sorghum which is not subject to such high water charges. • In Brakna, harvests were just about completed, with any damage confined to the piles of paddy rice exposed to the elements in the Boghé Pilot Border Irrigation Project area. Walo (flood recession) crops: The size of areas planted in these types of crops in all regions of the country was well below normal and down from 2001. • In Trarza, for several years now, out of nearly 8,000 ha of flooded croplands, only approximately 3,000 ha have been planted in walo crops (including 1,500 ha near Lake R’kiz planted in flood recession crops using controlled-flooding methods). Though usually flooded, only a comparatively small percentage of bottomlands in this region are planted in crops due to a shortage of manpower and the overlapping of crop calendars for walo and vegetable crops, which are considered to be more lucrative. This year, most farmed areas are concentrated in R’kiz District and, more specifically, in the Lexeïba 2 district, where small farmers, who were having serious problems growing irrigated crops, have returned to farming small flood-irrigated plots (a total of 1,500 ha at most). Infestation levels for pink stem borers (Sesamia calamistis) are low. Local crops are clearly not doing as well as last year, but their progress is definitely better than that of crops in Brakna and Gorgol Regions. • In Gorgol, with no available data from the regional office of the MDRE, FEWS NET and the Gorgol office of SONADER (the National Rural Development Agency) estimate the size of the area planted in crops at only 19,000 ha (10,000 ha of flood- recession crops in Maghama; 7,000 ha of cropland on the Fori Plain, and another 2,000 ha of land in small plain areas of the department of Kaëdi). Local farmers are already talking about crops in the maturation stage of the growing cycle infested with pink stalk borers.