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MONTHLY REPORT FOR JANUARY 2002 RAPPORT MENSUEL DU MOIS DE JANVIER 2002

This report covers the period from December 20, 2001 to January 22, 2002

Summary

Winter rains in Trarza, Brakna, and Gorgol Regions (Wilaya) are responsible for sizeable losses of livestock and crops and have claimed a number of lives. Rotting grasses and plants and losses of small stock animals are forcing herders to hasten the start of their seasonal treks, particularly in areas where conditions were already unstable (in and northern R’Kiz Districts (Moughataa). The dispersion of animals escaping the untimely rains is expected to further heighten the sudden, erratic migratory movements reported during December in areas affected by brush fires but spared by the January rains. The only grasslands still in good condition are in Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, and eastern Assaba Regions.

There are still no sightings of locusts. Despite ongoing harvests, paddy rice and sorghum prices are soaring. Prices in farming areas of the country such as Selibaby in Guidimakha (120 UM per kg of sorghum) and Bababé in Brakna (125 UM per kg) have reached highs that the country has not seen since the 1972 crisis.

Ongoing harvests of irrigated crops and the consumption of flood-recession crops (crops grown on river banks and in bottomlands and "walo" crops grown along the River) have helped postpone any deterioration in the food security of households growing rainfed millet and watermelon crops.

Food supplies are becoming increasingly inaccessible throughout the northern part of the country and in urban slum areas in the face of steadily rising prices for staple foods.

Fish and meat prices have leveled off during December. The opening of retail outlets by the National Import and Export Company (SONIMEX) selling grain at subsidized prices continues to curb price speculation and help stabilize prices for other food items.

I. NATURAL CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION FACTORS

I A. RAINFALL

Continuing rains in the northern reaches of the country (Tiris Zemmour, Adrar, Tagant, and Inchiri Regions) are helping to spur the growth of new vegetation in grazing areas. In contrast, untimely heavy rains in the southwest (Trarza, Brakna, and Gorgol Regions) are responsible for massive losses of livestock and crops and have claimed a number of lives (Table 1).

Table 1: Rainfall data for the period from January 9 to 11, 2002

WILAYA MOUGHATAA SITE 09/01/02 10/01/02 11/01/02 TOTAL

TRARZA R'KIZ R'kiz 43 8.5 8 59.5 Tekane 40 40 Lexeiba 2 20.7 83.5 3.6 107.8 KEUR MACENE Keur Macene 30.5 21.1 51.6 N'diago 37.7 37.7 Rosso 38 7 45 Jedrel Mohguen 37.5 25 62.5 MEDERDRA Mederdra 52 52 Boutilimit 42.2 18.9 61.1 Ouad Naga 57.2 57.2

BRAKNA BOGHE Boghé 17.5 17.5 30.7 27.2 10.2 68.1 Aleg 7.5 38 45.5 Male 9 35 6.5 50.5 MAGTA LAHJAR Magta Lahjar 2.5 33.2 16 51.7 32 8 40 BABABE Bababé 2.5 18 49 69.5 M'BAGNE M'bagne 7 18 40 65

GORGOL KAEDI Kaëdi 30 30 Toufounde Cive 17 13 30 M'BOUT M'bout 10.7 12.4 23.1 Monguel 36.9 36.9

TAGANT Moudjeria 3 44.3 47.3

TIDJIKJA 6 6 Rachid 5 11 9 25

ASSABA Barkéol 18 5 23 Source: Ministry of the Interior and AGRHYMET I B. GRAZING CONDITIONS

Heavy rains between January 9-11 flooded most grazing areas in Trarza and Brakna Regions and the western half of the Gorgol Region. Grazing conditions, which had been good up until that point, will deteriorate as inundated grasslands begin to rot or to lose their nutritional value. Moreover, the mass deaths of cattle and small stock animals have ruined numerous herders and eroded the ability of many agropastoralists and pastoralists to cope with shortfalls in grain production. The only grazing areas spared are in the Table 2: Preliminary Assessment of Losses southeast, where brush fires from the January Rains had forced herders to abandon their traditional Region Sheep & Goats Cattle Camels migratory routes. Trarza 32,346 3,638 98 Brakna 45,000 8,117 891 The districts hardest hit by Gorgol* 6,000 1,630 0 these losses of stock animals Source: CSA (Food Security Commission)/FEWS NET were R’kiz and Keur Macene in Trarza; Boghé, Bababé, * Data for Gorgol apply only to the northwestern part of Kaëdi M’Bagne, Aleg and Magta- District and the southern and western portions of Monguel District. Lahjar in Brakna; and Monguel and Kaëdi in Gorgol.

I C. PRODUCTION FACTORS BY TYPE OF FARMING SYSTEM

There have been major changes in production factors as a result of financial problems (irrigated crops) and water-related factors (in the case of walo or flood-recession and lowland crops).

Lowland crops: Harvests of rainfed lowland crops are winding up and yields are lower than expected, apparently as a result of poor water balances in most depression and upstream areas. Submersion times were extremely short and adherence to traditional crop calendars prompted farmers to begin planting their crops at the beginning of November — or barely one month after the submersion period started in late September to early October. It is highly unlikely that the January rains will do any good for late-maturing lowland crops, which were beginning to show signs of water stress. In any event, crop production in these areas cannot possibly offset losses engendered by the flooding of other croplands.

Caterpillars of the pink stem borer (Sesamia calamistis) have been sighted in lowland areas of Barkéol District in Assaba and Monguel District in Gorgol, but infestation levels are clearly lower than in previous years. Area farmers explained how they had burned their fields before planting any crops and attribute the lower infestation levels to this fact.

Present crop conditions in Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, and Assaba, as well as in small depression areas of Adrar are mostly as anticipated.

Irrigated crops: Harvests of irrigated crops continue throughout Trarza, where shortages of harvesting and thrashing equipment have slowed operations. Actual production figures have clearly fallen short of projections by the Ministry of Rural Development and Environment (MDRE), owing to both smaller areas planted in irrigated crops and mediocre yields. The largest contraction in the size of areas planted in irrigated crops occurred on privately owned commercial farms. Farming communities throughout the region put most of their efforts into growing vegetable crops, at the expense of rice-growing activities. Crop production on lands worked as village farms in Brakna and Gorgol showed no improvement due to the use of poor- quality seeds, limited use of fertilizer, and infrastructure-related problems.

The best crop performance in these three regions was in irrigated areas managed by the National Rural Development Agency (SONADER).

• In Trarza, the January rains caused extensive damage to rice crops. Crop losses have been assessed by the regional office of the Ministry of Rural Development and Environment (MDRE) at 45 percent of total yields from the 7,496 hectares planted in crops (up from the 1,309 ha planted in 2001).

• In Gorgol, any damage was confined to the Gorgol Pilot Irrigated Areas (PPG), which were in the midst of harvesting their crops, since most village farms had switched over to growing sorghum which is not subject to such high water charges.

• In Brakna, harvests were just about completed, with any damage confined to the piles of paddy rice exposed to the elements in the Boghé Pilot Border Irrigation Project area.

Walo (flood recession) crops: The size of areas planted in these types of crops in all regions of the country was well below normal and down from 2001.

• In Trarza, for several years now, out of nearly 8,000 ha of flooded croplands, only approximately 3,000 ha have been planted in walo crops (including 1,500 ha near Lake R’kiz planted in flood recession crops using controlled-flooding methods). Though usually flooded, only a comparatively small percentage of bottomlands in this region are planted in crops due to a shortage of manpower and the overlapping of crop calendars for walo and vegetable crops, which are considered to be more lucrative. This year, most farmed areas are concentrated in R’kiz District and, more specifically, in the Lexeïba 2 district, where small farmers, who were having serious problems growing irrigated crops, have returned to farming small flood-irrigated plots (a total of 1,500 ha at most). Infestation levels for pink stem borers (Sesamia calamistis) are low. Local crops are clearly not doing as well as last year, but their progress is definitely better than that of crops in Brakna and Gorgol Regions.

• In Gorgol, with no available data from the regional office of the MDRE, FEWS NET and the Gorgol office of SONADER (the National Rural Development Agency) estimate the size of the area planted in crops at only 19,000 ha (10,000 ha of flood- recession crops in ; 7,000 ha of cropland on the Fori Plain, and another 2,000 ha of land in small plain areas of the department of Kaëdi). Local farmers are already talking about crops in the maturation stage of the growing cycle infested with pink stalk borers. Farmers coming down to the Fori Plain in October from the department of Monguel, where dieri (rainfed upland crops) had done especially poorly, were responsible for any expansion in the size of cropped areas in this region, with many farmers in the Valley having given up planting walo crops after being disappointed by crop failures in each of the three past years (attributed to infestations of Sesamia calamistis and straying animals in their fields). Large expanses of land on the Fori have been left to lie fallow. Most consistently farmed areas in which crops are doing well are in the central part of the Region, across from , east of Kaëdi. In short, farmers in the Valley have given up growing walo crops, which are currently being farmed without much success by ill-fated dieri farmers from Monguel District.

• In Brakna, the most optimistic forecasts by the MDRE regional office put the size of the area under crops at roughly 6,147 ha, out of a total flooded area of approximately 8,000 ha. After a string of failures, many farmers have given up planting walo crops. A number of farmers, fearing pink stem borer infestations, decided to plant cowpea crops. Grain crops are stunted, bearing small heads of grain even at maturity, which are being fought over by grain-eating birds and farmers guarding their fields.

I D1. AREAS IN GOOD CONDITION

Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, eastern Assaba, and eastern Gorgol Regions (Maghama and M’Bout Districts) are better-off areas. Yields from rainfed grain crops in these areas are near normal and harvest prospects for lowland crops are still good in most grain-producing areas. Grazing conditions are satisfactory, despite localized brush fires. However, over the next few months, mass migration by animal herds from areas of the country hard hit by the January rains could lead to overgrazing, upsetting the current balance.

I D2. AREAS IN AVERAGE CONDITION

Many areas classified as areas in average condition in December (Barkéol District in Assaba, M’Bout District in Gorgol, and Magta-Lahjar District in Brakna) have been affected to some extent by the January rains and the accompanying cold spell sweeping the country. Ongoing assessments will ascertain whether the condition of these areas should be downgraded to "poor" or whether their status remains unchanged. It is well known that farmers in Guidimakha and in Kaëdi District in Gorgol are getting their grain supplies from grain-producing areas of M’Bout District. The revival of domestic trade after several years without any such trade taking place has both positive and negative ramifications — positive because it makes the country less dependent on outside sources, but also negative in that siphoning off this rainfed crop production could deplete on-farm grain supplies, triggering steep hikes in grain prices.

There is a similar situation in Hodh El Chargui, where grain production in Bassikounou, and Districts is being used to fuel trade with urban areas (Néma, Aïoun, , and ).

I D3. AREAS IN POOR CONDITION

All farming and livestock-raising areas in Trarza and Brakna Regions are currently regarded as areas in poor condition. The rains and the accompanying cold wave destroyed the primary sources of crop production in both regions, creating conditions liable to trigger food emergencies.

II. FOOD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

The food situation — the availability and accessibility of food supplies — has rapidly deteriorated in areas hard hit by the winter rains (Trarza, Brakna, and Gorgol Regions). Many families have lost their homes, property, crops, and animals, and even their tools and equipment. At this time of year, it is impossible for them to start any farming activities that will bear crops before the upcoming rainy season. The food situation is still good in livestock-raising areas of Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, and Assaba (with the exception Tintanne District), but has already deteriorated in farming areas. Poor crop yields in neighboring areas of Mali and Senegal have severely limited the options of riparian communities in these areas, who are falling back on imported wheat and rice.

There is every indication that the situation in these areas will only get worse, as needed emergency assistance is slow in coming. Food Security Commission (CSA) operations — grain sales at subsidized prices, distributions of free food aid — are far too limited in scope to have any consistent, lasting effect.

In Hodh El Chargui, the food situation in most production centers is still good, but this year's lean period (beginning sometime in April) will unquestionably be very hard on area farmers unable to implement their customary food access strategies centered on imports from Mali and trading with migratory herders. The status of this population group classified as moderately food insecure remains unchanged.

In Hodh El Gharbi, the food situation in the departments of and is becoming serious, with area farmers already classified as highly food insecure. Areas traditionally reliant on grain production (Aïoun and Kiffa Districts) have begun to feel the effects of the grain deficit in Kobenni and Tintane. Communities of herders affected by continuing brush fires are being forced to hasten the start of their annual treks and to travel farther from their homes. This latter population group is classified as moderately food insecure.

In Guidimakha in general, and Selibaby District in particular, the shortfall in rainfed grain production has created market conditions that the area has not experienced for more than 30 years, with a kilogram of sorghum currently going for 120 UM on the Selibaby market. Certain grain dealers have resumed trade with M’Bout and Maghama Districts, where prices are still low (Maghama) or on the way down (M’Bout) in the wake of good harvests of rainfed lowland crops. Nevertheless, a downgrading of the food security status of the local population to highly food insecure is unlikely. The general feeling is that emigrating family members, aware of the present situation, have already begun to step up the size and frequency of cash remittances to area households. At worst, these population groups will continue to be classified as moderately food insecure.

In Gorgol, conditions in farming and livestock-raising areas are still satisfactory. However, the outlook for walo and lowland (bas fonds) crops is extremely uncertain. Up until December, both types of crops were expected to bring in good harvests. Since mid-January, however, area farmers have been haunted by the specter of pink stalk borers after discovering their fields heavily infested with their caterpillars.

With the exception of farmers in Monguel District and in the northwestern corner of Kaëdi District already classified as highly food insecure, the remainder of the population of Gorgol is categorized as moderately food insecure.

III. CURRENT AVAILABILITY AND ACCESSIBILITY OF FOOD PRODUCTS

III A. CONDITIONS NATIONWIDE

The January 9-11 rains and the accompanying cold wave abruptly changed crop production and food security prospects. Heavy losses of irrigated rice and vegetable crops and walo (flood recession) and lowland crops are taking their toll on the farm population, for which the lean period (or soudure, from 3 to 5 months depending on the year in question) has always been comparatively long. However, it is important to generalize this problem because not everyone has been affected by the disaster. Losses are contained and ongoing surveys should help identify disaster victims and the extent of the actual losses they've sustained.

The nationwide grain deficit for the 2001/02 consumption year is now in excess of 165,298 tons, requiring either: • Stepped-up imports (which, in turn, means solving the thorny problem of accessing needed foreign exchange, since the ouguiya is not an « exportable » currency); or • The development of production systems in affected areas enabling local farmers and herders to manage until the next harvest period.

It is ill-advised to rely on international aid to remedy a problem calling for emergency measures at the country level. Many of the disaster victims are homeless, penniless, and have little to eat. They are left with only the clothes on their back, having lost all their household utensils and farming implements.

III B. CURRENT CONDITIONS IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

Grain transfers and imports from Mali are still extremely limited. Conditions in northern Senegal, throughout the entire Valley, are even worse than in Mauritania. Losses of crops and stock animals among riparian communities in Mauritania rule out any short- term sizeable inflows of food products.

III B1. SUPPLY OF STAPLE FOODS AND PRICE TRENDS

Prices of traditional grains on most markets around the country have climbed to levels that the country has not seen for more than 30 years. Although the ruinous climatic conditions in January of this year clearly have affected grain prices, in fact, prices were already on the rise well before the disaster hit and unusually steep price hikes had already been reported in areas spared by the January rains (Selibaby, Kobonni, Bassikounou, etc.).

Indeed, the main cause of the surge in prices is the tightening of domestic grain supplies, heightened by seasonal price rises. Prices have shot up in all farming areas where harvests have been poor in one or more farming systems. Poor harvests of dieri crops in Selibaby Department in Guidimakha pushed sorghum prices up to120 UM per kg as of January 16. Likewise, the price of millet soared to 130 UM. In Kaëdi, where ongoing harvests of paddy rice crops are winding up, a moud of paddy rice (about 4 kg) is going for 130 UM (Figure 1), a price high that was not reached last year until June. This would explain the 10 UM dip in the sorghum price between December and January, as consumers turned to cheaper paddy rice. The only possible explanation for the dips in sorghum prices in all farming areas growing crops under irrigation with the sole exception of R’Kiz (an extremely remote area) is the arrival of recently harvested paddy crops on local markets, even though market inventories are still small. Figure 1. Sorghum Price Trends in Kaëdi, Senegal River Valley in Mauritania 150 2001-02 125 2000-01

100

75

Ouguiya per kg 50

25

0 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

FEWS NET/Mauritania Source: CSA

In market towns throughout Aftout (Magta-Lahjar, Aleg, Moudjéria, etc.) a moud of rainfed sorghum is going for 450 UM, while the price of a moud of cowpeas goes for anywhere from 700 to 800 UM, depending on the volume of crops brought to market by local farmers. Hikes in prices for locally grown grains pushed prices for other grains up as well — along with what were already usurious lending rates. A farmer from R’Gueïg, north of Bababé, claimed that he had borrowed a sack of wheat, pledging to pay back three 50-kg sacks of sorghum from his next harvest.

III B2. ACCESS TO FOOD SUPPLIES

The situation in Trarza and Brakna Regions and, to a lesser extent, in Gorgol, Assaba, and Tagant Regions, has clearly deteriorated as far as the accessibility of food supplies is concerned. This year's lean period is certain to begin earlier than expected, given the overly optimistic production forecasts for lowland, irrigated, and walo crops. While the effects of this year’s lean period have not yet set in in farming areas where standing crops are supplying different types of food products (leaves, cowpeas, maize, paddy rice, squash, watermelons, and even heads of grain in the maturation-milk grain stage of the growing cycle), they are clearly being felt by residents of areas hard hit by the winter rains, where the only way to access needed food supplies is through market channels and emergency food aid.

Conditions in other farming areas of the country with respect to the accessibility of food supplies are in keeping with traditional crop calendars; barring any unforeseen circumstances, the lean period for residents of these areas should not set in until sometime after April.

Prices in urban population centers are mostly unchanged between December and January.