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Sector Report INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Software and IT Services 21st September 2017 Adoption of a multi-dimensional prospective beta Software and IT Services ALTEN BUY vs. NEUTRAL FV EUR85 vs.74 Over the years, IT players have substantially reduced their earnings Last Price EUR72,82 Market Cap. EUR2,457m volatility: 1) maintenance on their installed bases and the emergence of ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES BUY FV EUR19 vs. 17 Last Price EUR15,335 Market Cap. EUR2,696m the cloud have boosted recurring software sales; 2) IT services ATOS BUY vs. NEUTRAL FV EUR153 vs. 133 companies have curbed their dependency on cycles via industrialisation. Last Price EUR130,45 Market Cap. EUR13,724m In view of this, a more precise DCF valuation method seems necessary AXWAY SOFTWARE SELL FV EUR21 vs. 23 and for this reason, we have improved our current method by adopting Last Price EUR22,27 Market Cap. EUR463m multi-dimensional prospective betas. CAPGEMINI BUY FV EUR113 vs.105 Last Price EUR100 Market Cap. EUR16,915m A purely quantitative "flat rate" beta has its limits. In a DCF model, CAST NEUTRAL FV EUR3.6 vs.3,4 Last Price EUR3,54 Market Cap. EUR57m the beta reflects a company’s specific risk relative to the market as a whole. DASSAULT SYSTEMES NEUTRAL vs. SELL FV EUR86 vs. 65 The methodology we had used to date for the IT sector is based on a Last Price EUR85,54 Market Cap. EUR22,171m quantitative "flat rate" beta which did not reflect qualitative factors INDRA SISTEMAS BUY FV EUR16 (leadership, ability to beat expectations, acquisitions, economic Last Price EUR13,52 Market Cap. EUR2,388m momentum, etc.). In some cases, this resulted in structural gaps between SAGE GROUP BUY vs. NEUTRAL FV 830 vs. 720p Last Price 713,5p Market Cap. GBP7,712m the valuation based on our DCF model and the valuation that investors SAP BUY FV EUR115 vs. 108 were willing to grant on a lasting basis. Last Price EUR91,84 Market Cap. EUR112,826m SOFTWARE AG BUY FV EUR45 Last Price EUR40,695 Market Cap. EUR3,109m We are updating our methodology by adopting a multi-dimensional SOPRA STERIA GROUP BUY FV EUR178 vs. 165 prospective beta. Our new beta calculation method is based on two Last Price EUR156,6 Market Cap. EUR3,216m equally-weighted key factors: a "fundamental" factor (based on six criteria: SWORD GROUP BUY vs. NEUTRAL FV EUR40 vs. 33 liquidity, financial strength, sales recurrence, leadership, potential for Last Price EUR32,55 Market Cap. EUR311m surprises, and acquisition history) and a "momentum" factor (based on TEMENOS GROUP NEUTRAL FV CHF100 vs. 90 Last Price CHF98,4 Market Cap. CHF6,972m two criteria: global economic growth and earnings momentum). Data and Prices as at closed of 20th September Five recommendation upgrades. This new methodology has resulted in 21/09/17 a reduction in our betas, which now range from 0.88 to 1.47 (versus 1.04 115 to 2.25 previously). This in turn has prompted a general adjustment to our 110 DCF-derived Fair Values and five recommendation upgrades: Dassault 105 Systèmes (Neutral vs. Sell), Atos (Buy vs. Neutral), Sage (Buy vs. Neutral), 100 Alten (Buy vs. Neutral) and Sword (Buy vs. Neutral). Altran, Capgemini, 95 Indra, SAP, Software AG and Sopra Steria round out our list of favourite 90 stocks. Source Thomson Reuters STOXX EUROPE TM S/W & COMP SVS E STOXX EUROPE 600 Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Gregory Ramirez Richard-Maxime Beaudoux 33(0) 1 56 68 75 91 Thomas Coudry [email protected] Dorian Terral Frédéric Yoboué r r Software and IT Services Table of contents 1. Limits of the flat rate beta ............................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Methodology used until now .................................................................................................................. 3 1.2. Limitations of the "flat rate" beta approach ........................................................................................ 4 2. Our new beta methodology ............................................................................................................ 7 2.1. Multi-dimensional prospective beta: key principles ........................................................................... 7 2.2. The "fundamental" rating ....................................................................................................................... 8 2.3. "Momentum" rating ............................................................................................................................... 11 2.4. Final beta calculation ............................................................................................................................. 13 3. Application of our new betas ....................................................................................................... 14 3.1. Putting our new betas into perspective .............................................................................................. 14 3.2. Changes to our recommendations and FVs ...................................................................................... 15 AltenFair Value EUR85 vs. EUR74 BUY vs. NEUTRAL .......................................................... 17 Catalyst of research tax credit .......................................................................................................................... 17 Altran Technologies Fair Value EUR19 vs. EUR17 BUY ........................................................... 21 Step by step towards the 13% margin target ................................................................................................. 21 Atos Fair Value EUR153 vs. EUR133 BUY vs. NEUTRAL ...................................................... 25 Pending other structuring acquisitions ........................................................................................................... 25 Axway Software Fair Value EUR21 vs. EUR23 SELL ................................................................. 29 Transformation has a price ............................................................................................................................... 29 Capgemini Fair Value EUR113 vs. EUR105 BUY ........................................................................ 33 Productivity machine on the move ................................................................................................................. 33 Cast Fair Value EUR3,6 vs. EUR3,4 NEUTRAL.......................................................................... 37 At the heart of challenges for IT services companies .................................................................................. 37 Dassault Systèmes Fair Value EUR86 vs. EUR65 NEUTRAL vs. SELL ................................. 41 Boeing changes the landscape .......................................................................................................................... 41 Indra Sistemas Fair Value EUR16 BUY-Top Picks....................................................................... 45 H2 2017 far more dynamic ............................................................................................................................... 45 Sage Group Fair Value 830p vs. 720p BUY vs. NEUTRAL ....................................................... 49 Intacct has completed the shift to the cloud ................................................................................................. 49 SAP Fair Value EUR115 vs. EUR108 BUY ................................................................................... 53 Heading for a recovery in margins .................................................................................................................. 53 Software AG Fair Value EUR45 BUY ............................................................................................ 57 Towards accelerated growth ............................................................................................................................. 57 Sopra Steria Group Fair Value EUR178 vs. EUR165 BUY ......................................................... 61 A quiet transformation ...................................................................................................................................... 61 Sword Group Fair Value EUR40 vs. EUR33 BUY vs. NEUTRAL........................................... 65 Built to outperform ............................................................................................................................................ 65 Temenos Group Fair Value CHF100 vs. CHF90 NEUTRAL .................................................... 69 Awaiting further major contracts… ................................................................................................................ 69 Bryan Garnier stock rating system .................................................................................................... 75 Software and IT Services 1. Limits of the flat rate beta 1.1. Methodology used until now Until now, we determined IT To determine the Fair Value of an IT company (software publisher or IT services company) players’ prospective betas by based on a DCF model, the tool we use to measure the company’s intrinsic risk (β) in the cost multiplying their market of capital formula (risk free rate + β * equity risk premium) is a prospective beta, rather than a capitalisation by a country risk coefficient for the historical or statistical beta. Until now, we have calculated the prospective betas of sector players country in which they are
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