Cash and Markets Quarterly Dashboard - October - December 2018 Produced on 30th January 2019

Introduction Recommended transfer values Table 1: Recommended transfer values (USD) Map 1: Percentage change in price of main cereal from October to December 2018 Cash-based interventions have been used by The CWG uses FSNAU's CMEB values as the basis Region Multi-purpose Food transfer humanitarian organisations in Somalia since 20031. for determining transfer value recommendations. transfer value value However significant variations have been noted in As per the decision of the CWG, food transfer value Awdal 85 (75) 80 (70) transfer values, sometimes in the same place by recommendations should correspond to 100% of the different organisations, with varying justifications. It is in cost of the food MEB, while multi-purpose transfer value 70 60 light of this that the Somalia Cash Working Group (CWG) recommendations should correspond to 80% of the 65 50 started convening in February 2017, against a backdrop cost of the full MEB, both rounded to the nearest 5. In Bari 85 80 of an increase in number of agencies using cash-based addition, transfer value recommendations should remain Bay 50 30 interventions to respond to the 2016-2017 drought, fixed for three months at a time, and only be subject to with an aim to streamline the design, development change if the CMEB changes by more than 10% (see Galgaduud 100 90 and implementation of cash based interventions in the Tables 2 and 3 for details on the CMEB). 70 60 country. Within this, the CWG provides transfer value In consideration of this, in regions where a more than Hiraan 60 45 recommendations on a quarterly basis - based on the 10% change in the CMEB was recorded between October cost of the minimum expenditure basket (CMEB) - to 95 75 and December 2018, an updated recommendation is humanitarian organisations implementing cash-based 45 30 provided and the previous one is shown in brackets. interventions in Somalia. This is the case for Awdal, and Nugaal (see Middle Juba 50 30 (35) This dashboard presents the CWG's transfer value Table 1). Possibly linked to a long lean season following 75 60 recommendations in addition to an overview of market Cyclone Sagar and an increase in prices of some food 75 70 performance for the period of October - December 2018. imports, the cost of the food MEB in Awdal increased by The primary data sources used are the Food Security +14%, triggering +11% increase in the cost of the full Nugaal 80 (90) 65 and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), which provides MEB. In Middle Juba, the cost of the food MEB decreased Sanaag 100 65 price data, and the World Food Programme (WFP), by -12%, potentially due to a sustained positive impact Sool 90 65 which provides supply chain and port data. Data from of the Gu rains. The cost of the full MEB in Nugaal Togdheer 75 60 other CWG partners is used on an as-available basis. decreased by -13%. This was primarily triggered by a decline in the cost of non-food items MEB. Woqooyi Galbeed 80 70

Key developments Price change of main cereal Exchange rates • The cost of the food MEB exhibited small changes in The main cereal is defined as the cheaper of the two The exchange rates between the SoSh and the USD the majority of the regions from October to December preferred cereals in a district. remained relatively stable in most regions in this quarter. 2018. However, medium changes were recorded in In December, the average retail exchange rate was In the majority of assessed districts, the price of main Awdal and Middle Juba, at +14% and -12% respectively. SoSh. 35,000 per USD in Bossaso and SoSh. 24,300 cereals consumed remained stable or changed at mild per USD in . • Likewise, the cost of the full MEB changed only slightly rates. However, notable increases were recorded in in the majority of the regions, from October to December Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle Region at +28%, in Qansax Likewise the exchange rates between the SlSh and 2018, except in Nugaal and Awdal where they exhibited dheere, Bay Region at +14% and in Baraawe, Lower the USD remained relatively stable in this quarter. In medium changes, at -13% and +11% respectively. Shabelle Region at +13%. This is potentially attributed December, the average retail exchange rate was SlSh. to reduced supply from neighbouring rural areas due to a 9,700 per USD in Hargeisa. • The price of main cereals consumed remained relatively deterioration in security conditions. stable or changed slightly (<10%) in the majority of Monetary issues assessed districts from October to December 2018. Comparably, notable decreases were recorded in Bu'aale Trade was disrupted in Bulo Burto District, Hiraan However, notable changes were recorded in Qoryoley at at -27%, possibly due to increased supply in an effort to Region after local authorities directed Hormud +28%, in Qansax dheere at +14%, in Baraawe at 13%, clear food stocks in anticipation of Deyr harvest, and in Telecommunications to shut down operations due to in Gebiley at -18% and in Bu'aale at -27%. Gebiley at -18%, possibly due to a decline in prices of increased insecurity. This has adversely impacted on food imports. • Prices of imported commodities remained relatively traders - causing closure of markets - and local residents stable or exhibited small changes in this quarter. Map 1. shows how the prices of main cereals in assessed who rely on mobile money transfers for their transactions, districts changed between October and December 2018. • Both the (SoSh) and the Somaliland more so following claims of fake notes in circulation. Shilling (SlSh) remained generally stable against the United States Dollar (USD) in most regions, between October and December 2018.

1 Cash and Markets Quarterly Dashboard - Somalia

Cost of MEB Table 2: Monthly full MEB in urban areas for the quarter2 Table 3: Percentage change in the CMEB over a three month period3 Table 2 shows the price of the full Region Oct Nov Dec Region Jan-Mar Feb-Apr Mar-May Apr-June May-Jul Jun-Aug Jul-Sep Aug-Oct Sep-Nov Oct-Dec MEB from October to December Awdal 95 91 105 Awdal -1% 5% 12% -6% 0% 7% -4% -3% -9% 11% 2018 across all regions in Somalia. Bakool 84 80 86 Bakool 0% 5% -12% -25% -17% -8% 1% 3% -5% 2% During this period, the cost of full MEB exhibited small changes in most Banaadir 83 83 85 Banaadir 1% 0% -4% -3% -3% -7% -5% -3% 0% 2% regions. However, relatively notable Bari 107 108 106 Bari -6% -7% 0% 4% -2% -5% -3% 0% 2% -1% changes were recorded in Nugaal, at Bay 60 57 58 Bay -2% -5% -1% -4% -13% -11% 2% 2% -7% -4% -13%, and in Awdal, at +11%. Galgaduud 124 124 122 Galgaduud -1% 5% -2% 0% -1% -2% 6% 5% -1% -2% Table 3 shows trends in the cost of Gedo 90 90 88 Gedo -2% -1% -1% 1% -5% -8% -7% -6% -1% -2% full MEB. Notable decreases are Hiraan 77 79 78 Hiraan -19% -12% 4% 2% -7% -6% -2% 0% 3% 1% observed in the South around the Gu harvest period (August-September), Lower Juba 118 118 113 Lower Juba -3% -2% 2% 0% -4% 0% -1% 0% 2% -4% possibly due to the positive impact Lower Shabelle 55 57 58 Lower Shabelle -2% -3% 7% 1% -21% -24% -14% -3% 5% 5% of the Gu rains. Small decreases and Middle Juba 64 62 60 Middle Juba -5% -9% 8% 11% -10% -11% -4% -10% -10% -6% increases are observed around the Middle Shabelle 92 94 94 Middle Shabelle 0% 5% 8% 2% -6% -8% -5% 0% 3% 2% Deyr periods (October-December) Mudug 93 94 92 Mudug 0% -3% -5% -2% -2% -2% -3% -1% 3% -1% potentially attributed to limited market supplies as cereal stocks get Nugaal 112 99 98 Nugaal -10% 1% 8% 5% 5% 1% -3% 1% -9% -13% depleted. Sanaag 128 127 138 Sanaag -1% -2% 1% 4% -2% -5% 0% 3% -2% 8% Table 4 shows the list of basic food Sool 113 119 121 Sool 2% -10% -13% -4% 4% 4% -2% -8% -1% 7% and non-food items taken into account Togdheer 92 90 90 Togdheer 12% -10% -4% -1% -6% 0% -6% -6% -2% -3% when establishing the CMEB. Woqooyi Galbeed 101 100 99 Woqooyi Galbeed -5% 0% 12% 1% -7% 1% 7% 1% -2% -2%

Table 4: MEB items Price trends of local cereals2,4 in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average. In Mogadishu, the prices of imported rice Import and export trends4 exhibited only a mild increase in this quarter, compared to the previous quarter Compared to the previous quarter where they exhibited a steady decrease, in Bossaso food imports in this quarter were 103,954 MT. This is a 27% increase Food items where they exhibited a steady decrease. Again these prices were slightly lower this quarter, the prices of white maize in exhibited a moderate increase, compared to the previous quarter and an 18% increase compared to the same Cereal compared to the same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average. possibly due to exhaustion of cereal stocks. However, the prices were lower quarter in 2017. However, in December, the total food imports were 35,529 MT Sugar compared to the same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average. In Vegetable oil prices in Bossaso continued to rise steadily, exceeding the which is a 8% decrease in comparison to December 2017. Compared to the Vegetable oil Mogadishu, the prices of white maize increased at a mild rate, exceeding the previous quarter's average. Compared to the same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average, total food imports increased by 22% previous quarter's average. These prices were slightly lower compared to the 2013 - 2017, these prices were higher. In Hargeisa, the price of vegetable oil Cow peas On the other hand, Bossaso animal exports in this quarter were 264,621 same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average. recorded a relative increase in this quarter. While the October price - the lowest Non-Food Items heads. This is a decrease of almost half (49%) compared to the previous recorded in 2018 - was lower in comparison to October 2017, November and Kerosene Compared to the previous quarter where they exhibited relative stability, in this quarter and a 35% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2017. However, December prices were higher compared to the same period in 2017 and the quarter, the prices of red sorghum in Baidoa recorded a significant increase, in December, the total livestock exported reached 98,458 heads which is Soap (laundry bar) 2013 - 2017 average. Compared to the previous quarter where they exhibited a again potentially attributed to exhaustion of cereal stocks. However, compared 8% higher compared to December 2017. In comparison to the 2013 - 2017 Firewood steady decrease, in this quarter, prices of vegetable oil in Mogadishu exhibited to the same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average, these prices were average, total livestock exports increased by 14% (see Figures 13 - 14). a steady increase. Water (200 litres drum) lower possibly due to improved harvests in 2017 (see Figures 1 -3). Human drugs Sugar prices in Bossaso remained stable in this quarter as well as in comparison Price trends of imported commodities2,4 School fees to the previous quarter. However, they were relatively lower compared to the Grinding cost The prices of imported red rice in Bossaso remained relatively stable in this same quarter in 2017 but relatively higher compared to the 2013 - 2017 average. quarter. However, they were higher than the prices recorded in the previous In Hargeisa, prices of sugar remained relatively stable in this quarter as well Clothes quarter. Similarly, the prices recorded in this quarter were significantly higher as in comparison to the previous quarter and the same quarter in 2017. They Social tax compared to the same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average. This is were however relatively higher than the 2013 - 2017 average. In Mogadishu, Other (specify) potentially due to depreciation of the SoSh against the USD following increased sugar prices remained relatively stable in this quarter and in comparison to the printing and subsequent supply of local currencies in the area. In Hargeisa, previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 the prices of imported rice remained relatively stable in this quarter. These average, these prices were relatively lower (see Figures 4 - 12). prices were slightly lower compared to the previous quarter, the same quarter

1. M. Daniels and G. Anderson. Evaluation of the 2017 Somalia Humanitarian Cash-Based Response. August 2018 2. Price data was collected by FSNAU from 71 markets across 55 districts and 18 regions in Somalia 3. Classification: < -20% Large decrease; -11% to -20% Medium decrease; -1% to -10% Small decrease; 1% to 10% Small increase; 11% to 20% Medium increase; > 20% Large increase 4. Following consensus by CWG members, trend analysis has focused on Bossaso, Hargeisa and Mogadishu districts given their regional significance when it comes to markets and trade

2 Cash and Markets Quarterly Dashboard - Somalia

Figure 1: Red sorghum prices in Baidoa (SSh) Figure 2: White maize prices in Baidoa (SSh) Figure 3: White maize prices in Mogadishu (SSh) Figure 13: Food imports in Bosaso port (Mts) 50000 12000 14000 14000 45000 12000 10000 12000 40000 10000 35000 8000 10000 30000 8000 6000 8000 25000 6000 6000 20000 4000 15000 4000 4000 10000 2000 2000 2000 5000 0 0 0 0 July May April June July July July May May May April April April March June June June August March January October March March August August August February January October January October January October November December September February February February November December November December November December September September September Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018

Figure 4: Red rice prices in Bossaso (SSh) Figure 5: Red rice prices in Hargeisa (SLSh) Figure 6: Red rice prices in Mogadishu (SSh) Figure 14: Livestock exports in Bossaso port (Heads) 500000 20000 6000 14000 18000 450000 12000 16000 5000 400000 14000 10000 350000 4000 300000 12000 8000 10000 3000 250000 8000 6000 200000 2000 6000 4000 150000 4000 100000 1000 2000 2000 50000 0 0 0 0 July May April June July July July May May May March April April April June June August June January October March March March February August August August November December January October January October January October September February February February November December November December November December September September September Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018

Figure 7: Vegetable oil prices in Bossaso (SSh) Figure 8: Vegetable oil prices in Hargeisa (SLSh) Figure 9: Vegetable oil prices in Mogadishu (SSh)

36000 20000 28000 18000 32000 24000 28000 16000 20000 24000 14000 12000 20000 16000 10000 16000 8000 12000 12000 6000 8000 8000 4000 4000 4000 2000 0 0 0 July July July May May May April April April June June June March March March August August August January October January October January October February February February November December November December November December September September September Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2018) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018

Figure 10: Sugar prices in Bossaso (SSh) Figure 11: Sugar prices in Hargeisa (SLSh) Figure 12: Sugar prices in Mogadishu (SSh) For more information on this dashboard, please contact Somalia 25000 8000 18000 CWG: 7000 16000 20000 [email protected] 6000 14000 12000 15000 5000 10000 4000 8000 10000 3000 6000 2000 5000 4000 1000 2000 0 0 0 July July July May May May April April April June June June March March March August August August January October January October January October February February February November December November December November December September September September Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018

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