Cash and Markets Quarterly Dashboard - Somalia October - December 2018 Produced on 30th January 2019 Introduction Recommended transfer values Table 1: Recommended transfer values (USD) Map 1: Percentage change in price of main cereal from October to December 2018 Cash-based interventions have been used by The CWG uses FSNAU's CMEB values as the basis Region Multi-purpose Food transfer humanitarian organisations in Somalia since 20031. for determining transfer value recommendations. transfer value value However significant variations have been noted in As per the decision of the CWG, food transfer value Awdal 85 (75) 80 (70) transfer values, sometimes in the same place by recommendations should correspond to 100% of the different organisations, with varying justifications. It is in cost of the food MEB, while multi-purpose transfer value Bakool 70 60 light of this that the Somalia Cash Working Group (CWG) recommendations should correspond to 80% of the Banaadir 65 50 started convening in February 2017, against a backdrop cost of the full MEB, both rounded to the nearest 5. In Bari 85 80 of an increase in number of agencies using cash-based addition, transfer value recommendations should remain Bay 50 30 interventions to respond to the 2016-2017 drought, fixed for three months at a time, and only be subject to with an aim to streamline the design, development change if the CMEB changes by more than 10% (see Galgaduud 100 90 and implementation of cash based interventions in the Tables 2 and 3 for details on the CMEB). Gedo 70 60 country. Within this, the CWG provides transfer value In consideration of this, in regions where a more than Hiraan 60 45 recommendations on a quarterly basis - based on the 10% change in the CMEB was recorded between October cost of the minimum expenditure basket (CMEB) - to Lower Juba 95 75 and December 2018, an updated recommendation is humanitarian organisations implementing cash-based Lower Shabelle 45 30 provided and the previous one is shown in brackets. interventions in Somalia. This is the case for Awdal, Middle Juba and Nugaal (see Middle Juba 50 30 (35) This dashboard presents the CWG's transfer value Table 1). Possibly linked to a long lean season following Middle Shabelle 75 60 recommendations in addition to an overview of market Cyclone Sagar and an increase in prices of some food Mudug 75 70 performance for the period of October - December 2018. imports, the cost of the food MEB in Awdal increased by The primary data sources used are the Food Security +14%, triggering +11% increase in the cost of the full Nugaal 80 (90) 65 and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), which provides MEB. In Middle Juba, the cost of the food MEB decreased Sanaag 100 65 price data, and the World Food Programme (WFP), by -12%, potentially due to a sustained positive impact Sool 90 65 which provides supply chain and port data. Data from of the Gu rains. The cost of the full MEB in Nugaal Togdheer 75 60 other CWG partners is used on an as-available basis. decreased by -13%. This was primarily triggered by a decline in the cost of non-food items MEB. Woqooyi Galbeed 80 70 Key developments Price change of main cereal Exchange rates • The cost of the food MEB exhibited small changes in The main cereal is defined as the cheaper of the two The exchange rates between the SoSh and the USD the majority of the regions from October to December preferred cereals in a district. remained relatively stable in most regions in this quarter. 2018. However, medium changes were recorded in In December, the average retail exchange rate was In the majority of assessed districts, the price of main Awdal and Middle Juba, at +14% and -12% respectively. SoSh. 35,000 per USD in Bossaso and SoSh. 24,300 cereals consumed remained stable or changed at mild per USD in Mogadishu. • Likewise, the cost of the full MEB changed only slightly rates. However, notable increases were recorded in in the majority of the regions, from October to December Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle Region at +28%, in Qansax Likewise the exchange rates between the SlSh and 2018, except in Nugaal and Awdal where they exhibited dheere, Bay Region at +14% and in Baraawe, Lower the USD remained relatively stable in this quarter. In medium changes, at -13% and +11% respectively. Shabelle Region at +13%. This is potentially attributed December, the average retail exchange rate was SlSh. to reduced supply from neighbouring rural areas due to a 9,700 per USD in Hargeisa. • The price of main cereals consumed remained relatively deterioration in security conditions. stable or changed slightly (<10%) in the majority of Monetary issues assessed districts from October to December 2018. Comparably, notable decreases were recorded in Bu'aale Trade was disrupted in Bulo Burto District, Hiraan However, notable changes were recorded in Qoryoley at at -27%, possibly due to increased supply in an effort to Region after local authorities directed Hormud +28%, in Qansax dheere at +14%, in Baraawe at 13%, clear food stocks in anticipation of Deyr harvest, and in Telecommunications to shut down operations due to in Gebiley at -18% and in Bu'aale at -27%. Gebiley at -18%, possibly due to a decline in prices of increased insecurity. This has adversely impacted on food imports. • Prices of imported commodities remained relatively traders - causing closure of markets - and local residents stable or exhibited small changes in this quarter. Map 1. shows how the prices of main cereals in assessed who rely on mobile money transfers for their transactions, districts changed between October and December 2018. • Both the Somali Shilling (SoSh) and the Somaliland more so following claims of fake notes in circulation. Shilling (SlSh) remained generally stable against the United States Dollar (USD) in most regions, between October and December 2018. 1 Cash and Markets Quarterly Dashboard - Somalia Cost of MEB Table 2: Monthly full MEB in urban areas for the quarter2 Table 3: Percentage change in the CMEB over a three month period3 Table 2 shows the price of the full Region Oct Nov Dec Region Jan-Mar Feb-Apr Mar-May Apr-June May-Jul Jun-Aug Jul-Sep Aug-Oct Sep-Nov Oct-Dec MEB from October to December Awdal 95 91 105 Awdal -1% 5% 12% -6% 0% 7% -4% -3% -9% 11% 2018 across all regions in Somalia. Bakool 84 80 86 Bakool 0% 5% -12% -25% -17% -8% 1% 3% -5% 2% During this period, the cost of full MEB exhibited small changes in most Banaadir 83 83 85 Banaadir 1% 0% -4% -3% -3% -7% -5% -3% 0% 2% regions. However, relatively notable Bari 107 108 106 Bari -6% -7% 0% 4% -2% -5% -3% 0% 2% -1% changes were recorded in Nugaal, at Bay 60 57 58 Bay -2% -5% -1% -4% -13% -11% 2% 2% -7% -4% -13%, and in Awdal, at +11%. Galgaduud 124 124 122 Galgaduud -1% 5% -2% 0% -1% -2% 6% 5% -1% -2% Table 3 shows trends in the cost of Gedo 90 90 88 Gedo -2% -1% -1% 1% -5% -8% -7% -6% -1% -2% full MEB. Notable decreases are Hiraan 77 79 78 Hiraan -19% -12% 4% 2% -7% -6% -2% 0% 3% 1% observed in the South around the Gu harvest period (August-September), Lower Juba 118 118 113 Lower Juba -3% -2% 2% 0% -4% 0% -1% 0% 2% -4% possibly due to the positive impact Lower Shabelle 55 57 58 Lower Shabelle -2% -3% 7% 1% -21% -24% -14% -3% 5% 5% of the Gu rains. Small decreases and Middle Juba 64 62 60 Middle Juba -5% -9% 8% 11% -10% -11% -4% -10% -10% -6% increases are observed around the Middle Shabelle 92 94 94 Middle Shabelle 0% 5% 8% 2% -6% -8% -5% 0% 3% 2% Deyr periods (October-December) Mudug 93 94 92 Mudug 0% -3% -5% -2% -2% -2% -3% -1% 3% -1% potentially attributed to limited market supplies as cereal stocks get Nugaal 112 99 98 Nugaal -10% 1% 8% 5% 5% 1% -3% 1% -9% -13% depleted. Sanaag 128 127 138 Sanaag -1% -2% 1% 4% -2% -5% 0% 3% -2% 8% Table 4 shows the list of basic food Sool 113 119 121 Sool 2% -10% -13% -4% 4% 4% -2% -8% -1% 7% and non-food items taken into account Togdheer 92 90 90 Togdheer 12% -10% -4% -1% -6% 0% -6% -6% -2% -3% when establishing the CMEB. Woqooyi Galbeed 101 100 99 Woqooyi Galbeed -5% 0% 12% 1% -7% 1% 7% 1% -2% -2% Table 4: MEB items Price trends of local cereals2,4 in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average. In Mogadishu, the prices of imported rice Import and export trends4 exhibited only a mild increase in this quarter, compared to the previous quarter Compared to the previous quarter where they exhibited a steady decrease, in Bossaso food imports in this quarter were 103,954 MT. This is a 27% increase Food items where they exhibited a steady decrease. Again these prices were slightly lower this quarter, the prices of white maize in Baidoa exhibited a moderate increase, compared to the previous quarter and an 18% increase compared to the same Cereal compared to the same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average. possibly due to exhaustion of cereal stocks. However, the prices were lower quarter in 2017. However, in December, the total food imports were 35,529 MT Sugar compared to the same quarter in 2017 and the 2013 - 2017 average. In Vegetable oil prices in Bossaso continued to rise steadily, exceeding the which is a 8% decrease in comparison to December 2017.