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German Energy Security and Its Implications on Regional Security

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German Energy Security and Its Implications on Regional Security View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis and Dissertation Collection 2016-12 German energy security and its implications on regional security Sakamoto, Philemon Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/51610 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS GERMAN ENERGY SECURITY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON REGIONAL SECURITY by Philemon Sakamoto December 2016 Thesis Advisor: Robert E. Looney Second Reader: Daniel Moran Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) December 2016 Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS GERMAN ENERGY SECURITY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON REGIONAL SECURITY 6. AUTHOR(S) Philemon Sakamoto 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis considers three notable developments in German energy policy: the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project between Russia and Germany, the decision to phase out nuclear energy, and European Union (EU) and German renewable energy policy agendas. The thesis uses EU and German policy pronouncements, press reports, and third-party analysis to understand the three policy developments and assess their effects. It establishes a “trilemma” framework that relates energy security with other energy objectives as well as a liberal international relations (IR) theory framework to relate energy policy to broader security and stability objectives. Through an analysis of the three policy measures, the thesis depicts the challenges associated with pursuing energy objectives and highlights contradictions where measures intended to increase energy security can actually act to undermine it. Furthermore, it explores the complex relationship between energy security and overall regional security and stability. Using a liberal framework, it illustrates how policies established to improve energy security may act to undermine broader regional stability and security objectives. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Germany, energy, security, stability, natural gas, nuclear energy, renewable energy, European PAGES Union 105 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. GERMAN ENERGY SECURITY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON REGIONAL SECURITY Philemon Sakamoto Major, United States Air Force B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 2004 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (EUROPE AND EURASIA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2016 Approved by: Robert E. Looney Thesis Advisor Daniel Moran Second Reader Mohammed Hafez Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis considers three notable developments in German energy policy: the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project between Russia and Germany, the decision to phase out nuclear energy, and European Union (EU) and German renewable energy policy agendas. The thesis uses EU and German policy pronouncements, press reports, and third-party analysis to understand the three policy developments and assess their effects. It establishes a “trilemma” framework that relates energy security with other energy objectives as well as a liberal international relations (IR) theory framework to relate energy policy to broader security and stability objectives. Through an analysis of the three policy measures, the thesis identifies the challenges associated with pursuing energy objectives and highlights contradictions where measures intended to increase energy security can actually act to undermine it. Furthermore, it explores the complex relationship between energy security and overall regional security and stability. Using a liberal framework, it illustrates how policies established to improve energy security may act to undermine broader regional stability and security objectives. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION..........................................................1 B. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH QUESTION ...........................1 C. LITERATURE REVIEW .........................................................................3 1. Energy Security ..............................................................................3 2. International Relations Theory ....................................................7 3. Liberal Security Theory ..............................................................10 4. German Energy Security .............................................................11 5. Energy Security and Security .....................................................14 D. THESIS OVERVIEW .............................................................................15 II. NORD STREAM 2 ...............................................................................................17 A. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................17 B. HISTORY .................................................................................................18 C. THE MAJOR PLAYERS ........................................................................18 1. Russia ............................................................................................18 2. Germany .......................................................................................20 3. Eastern European States .............................................................23 4. The European Union ...................................................................24 D. EFFECTS..................................................................................................26 1. Energy Security ............................................................................26 2. Security .........................................................................................27 3. Energy Security and Security .....................................................29 E. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................30 III. NUCLEAR ENERGY ..........................................................................................31 A. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................31 B. ORIGINS OF ANTI-NUCLEAR SENTIMENT...................................32 1. Fukushima and Near-term Elections .........................................32 2. The Green Party and the History of the Anti-Nuclear Movement .....................................................................................33 3. Nuclear Weapons and the Peace Movement .............................37 C. COMPARISONS AND POLITICAL OPPORTUNITY THEORY ..................................................................................................40 1. Public Opinion ..............................................................................40 2. Policy .............................................................................................41 3. Opportunity Theory.....................................................................43 vii D. NUCLEAR PHASE-OUT AND GERMAN ENERGY SECURITY ...............................................................................................46 E. NUCLEAR PHASE-OUT AND REGIONAL SECURITY .................49 1. Democracy ....................................................................................49 2. Interconnectedness and IGOs .....................................................53 F. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................54
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