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CFO Survey Slovenia | February 2014 As Long As Government Focuses on Measures That Enable Filling the Impoverished State’S Budget (E

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CFO Survey Slovenia | February 2014 As Long As Government Focuses on Measures That Enable Filling the Impoverished State’S Budget (E CFO Survey Slovenia | February 2014 As long as government focuses on measures that enable filling the impoverished state’s budget (e. g. new taxations), we can’t expect economic progress. On the contrary, we need stimulating measures that will make Slovene economic environment more optimistic and more supportive, where fear from failure and lack of confidence, as stated by one of the interviewees, will no longer block the development of our economy. 2 Slovenia in 2014 – Lack of optimism Further contraction of the economy, decrease of employment due to the transition of working population to inactivity, stricter credit standards which reduce the availability of new financing – these are main forecasts of Slovene CFOs for the year 2014. Not really optimistic, especially when still a vast majority (62%) of Slovene participants in this third edition of CFO Survey believe that Slovenia will face another year of recession. And for the third time Slovenian CFOs remain the most pessimistic about expectations for the country’s growth this year among all the countries that participate in the Survey. The vicious circle of economy crisis in Slovenia though continues. According to Slovene CFOs, all Slovene governments are responsible for the weak economic development of the country in the last couple of years. They estimate that government involves too much in the economy, and what is more, it constantly changes its economic policy what continues to block the country’s development and growth. The most important factors to reach the last, CFOs list development of financial sector, tax reductions and decrease in corruption. This list should be a sign that it’s about time to implement so hardly waited structural reforms, starting with the rescue program of the Slovene banking system. But only that will not save the Slovene economy. As long as government focuses on measures that enable filling the impoverished state’s budget (e. g. new taxations), we can’t expect economic progress. On the contrary, we need stimulating measures that will make Slovene economic environment more optimistic and more supportive, where Yuri Sidorovich fear from failure and lack of confidence, as stated by one of Managing Partner, Deloitte Slovenia the interviewees, will no longer block the development of our economy. CFO Survey Slovenia 3 Key findings: • No signs of revival of the economy. • Decrease of employment due to the transition of working population to inactivity. • Stricter credit standards reduce the availability of new financing. • Slovene banking system needs additional restructuring. • Slovene CFOs believe that the government is responsible for the weak economy development. 4 Economic forecasts for Slovenia It is not expected that the economic conditions shall Due to further fiscal consolidation and tight improve in Slovenia in the short term. Despite the first conditions on the labor market and in the banking signs of recovery in the euro area, domestic factors system, business will continue to be difficult in 2014. will remain to constrain the recovery of the Slovenian economy. In 2012 the economy contracted by 2.5% Despite the introduced measures for increasing and it is expected to further contract by 2.4% in the state’s revenue, the general government deficit 2013 and 0.8% in 2014, respectively. According to in 2013 has increased. Rising expenditures for the Slovene Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis interest and pensions surpassed the savings related to and Development (“SIMAD”), a slight recovery is the reduction of salaries in the public sector. Similar envisaged for 2015 where the economy is expected trends are expected also for 2014 as the government to grow by 0.4%. will need to collect new funds for rehabilitation of the banking system and additional 3 billion EUR to Current and ongoing recession in Slovenia is repay government bonds with the maturity date mainly driven by domestic factors which will slow in 2014. The government austerity measures are down the economy also in 2014. It is expected expected to increase also in 2014 which will especially that the Slovene economy will be affected by affect new investments and disposable income. the following factors in 2014: Contraction of economic activity contributed • weak consumer and corporate confidence; to the fall of employment in all sectors. Due to • high and rising unemployment; austerity programs, the employment decreased also • declining household spending; in the public sector for the first time in the history of Slovenia. The pension reform in the beginning • tight government spending; of 2013 significantly contributed to the fall of • highly indebted local companies; employment, which was largely due to the transition • ongoing credit crunch and upcoming bank rescue of working population to inactivity. SIMAD expects programs; on average 120.6 thousand registered unemployed persons in 2013. With the continuation of poor • declining construction sector; economic conditions, employment will further • slow growth in the euro-zone and most of the CEE decrease in the next two years. The number of market; registered unemployed persons will remain around • low and declining foreign direct investments as 120 thousand, however, the working-age population well as declining domestic investments. will shrink. CFO Survey Slovenia 5 Business in Slovenia is also constrained due to banks In terms of CFOs’ expectation for Slovene GDP which continue to reduce the amount of granted growth in 2014, the majority of Slovene CFOs (62%) loans to nonfinancial institutions. In the first seven agree with SIMAD that Slovenia will face another year months of 2013, the volume of loans granted to of recession, while 35% of surveyed CFOs feel more the private sector has decreased by 1.1 billion EUR. optimistic and believe that the Slovene economy The “stress tests”, recommended by the European will manage to grow between 0 and 1.5% in 2014. Council, have established that non-performing loans CFOs also deem that the level of unemployment are estimated at 7.8 billion EUR which represents will increase in the upcoming 12 months. 65% of approximately 17% of all outstanding receivables of surveyed CFOs expect that unemployment shall the Slovene banking system. According to SIMAD, increase somewhat and 24% expect a significant the first positive effect of the bank rescue program increase of unemployment. shall be visible only in 2015. The recovery of the Slovene economy also very much depends on the economic growth in our most important trading partner countries. Due to the important shares of export and import of goods All Slovene governments are responsible for in the GDP structure, the way out of this crisis will largely be affected by the recovery of Slovenia’s trade the current condition of our economy. It’s time in goods with foreign countries. Luckily, international politicians put aside old grudges and differences organization envisaged slow economy growth in our most important trading partner countries which will and jointly make the necessary steps to boost have a positive effect on the Slovene economy as Slovene economy. well. 6 Graph 1: CFOs’ expectations for Slovene GDP growth Graph 2: How CFOs expect levels of unemployment in 2014 to change in Slovenia over the next 12 months 3% 8% 35% 3% 24% 62% 65% Recession Increase Significatly Stagnation (0 - 1,5%) Increase Somewhat Moderate Growth (1,5-3%) Neutral Growth (>3%) Decrease Somewhat Decrease Significantly CFO Survey Slovenia 7 The Survey Findings Not very optimistic and cautious when it comes to risk CFO’s outlook on financial prospects of their Graph 3: CFOs’ views on their companies’ financial prospects companies did not change significantly in comparison 100% 3 to the survey carried out in spring 2013. 30% of 15 27 surveyed CFO’s feel fairly or very optimistic about 80% 27 the financial future of their companies. When 33 60% compared to the results from the CFO survey carried 43 42 out in autumn 2012, it is evident that 15% more 40% Very Optimistic CFOs expressed confidence about the companies they 52 Somewhat Optimistic 20% work for. The share of CFOs that are less optimistic 27 30 Unchanged Less Optimistic about their companies is 27%, which is the highest 0% percentage among the 13 countries where the CFO Late 2013 Early 2013 Late 2012 survey took place. However, if compared to the data from autumn 2012, we can see that the percentage of CFOs that feel less optimistic has reduced by 25 percentage points. More than 40% of surveyed CFO’s feel that financial prospects of their companies have not changed in comparison to 6 months ago. We60% miss consistent, balanced and growth oriented50% tax policy. New taxes must not only Review of individual answers reveals that confidence about the financial future of their companies was be40% a tool to fill the state’s budget, they must expressed mainly by CFO’s of export oriented be30% considered as a mean to support the whole production companies. Given the economic 20% situation in Slovenia and our important trading society. Therefore, tax legislation must be clear 10% partner countries, the result is not surprising. and carefully implemented. First signs of economic recovery and optimistic 0% Very high High Above normal Normal forecasts in trading partner countries are likely the reason for optimism of the respective CFOs. 100% 90% 80% 8 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Late 2013 Early 2013 Late 2012 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Late 2013 Early 2013 Late 2012 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%
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