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Suncor Energy – Investor Presentation 2019 Q1

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Suncor Energy – Investor Presentation 2019 Q1 INVESTOR INFORMATION Q1 2019 Published May 1, 2019 2 Canada’s leading integrated energy company $85B ~940 mbpd ~600 mbpd 28+ years ~460 mbpd ~1750 1 Oil production Heavy upgrading 2P Reserve life Refining nameplate Enterprise value Retail sites4 As at March 31, 2019 nameplate capacity2 nameplate capacity2 index3 capacity2 1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories 3 Suncor – A resilient business focused on shareholder returns Cash flow growth Cash generation Strong potential FFO1 increase largely independent of market conditions Significant upside FFO1 sensitivity to WTI, based on TTM5 actuals US$62.80 WTI, 0.76 C$/US$, US$18.00 NYH 3-2-1 crack spread 2 (C$ billion) ~5% CAGR (Based on 2019 price guidance) $16 $14 TTM average production 750 mbbls/d $12 Debottlenecks, $10 cost reductions $8 Fort Hills, and margin Syncrude, improvements $6 and Hebron $4 $5.5B Sustaining capital6 + dividend $2 $2.8B Sustaining capital6 $0 2018 FFO1 Production Free funds flow 2023E FFO1 $60 $63 $70 $75 $80 growth 3 growth4 TTM WTI ($USD) Shareholder returns Resilience Commitment to reliable returns through the commodity cycles Managing the balance sheet as a strategic asset Dividend per share7 Liquidity Buyback per share7,8,9 Anticipated buyback per share7,9 7% $5.3B $1.9B cash and $3.4B in available lines of credit Dividend + buyback yield As at March 31, 2019 — 5% 5% A low Credit rating 1.88 Investment grade 0.85 DBRS (A Low) Stable, S&P(A-) stable, Moody’s (Baa1) Stable 1.14 3% 3% Baa1 WTI FFO Break-Even10 (USD) 1.02 1.14 1.16 1.28 1.44 1.68 ~$45 Sustaining capital6 + dividend 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2019 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 4 Multi-year focus on structural free funds flow growth1,2 Production growth5 Growth Free funds In situ replication flow growth projects1,5 Opportunistic Production share buybacks Debottlenecks, cost growth reductions & margin Fort Hills, Syncrude improvements and Hebron ~4% anticipated Sustain the business & ~5% anticipated production CAGR continually grow the ~10% anticipated FFO CAGR (Refer to slide 9) dividend production growth 2 per share4 (Refer to slide 8) 2023/2024 forward 3 2020 – 2023 Structural FFO growth 2019 – 2020 & balance sheet strength (Refer to slide 7) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 5 The Suncor business advantage Long life, low decline Unique business Financial strength and low cost integration through market cycles ~800 mbpd 2019 production guidance midpoint5 ~1000 mbpd of conversion capacity6 8 ~600 mbpd of heavy upgrading capacity7 Resilient free funds flow ~31yrs ~$93 Oil Sands 2P ~$65 ~$49 ~$43 ~$51 Reserve Life Index1 Oil E&P Sands ~$10.2B Resources ~$9.0B ~$9.1B ~$6.8B Suncor’s ~560mbpd ~$6.0B Minimal Fort McMurray ear upgrading y ires planned planned decline f ~1% anticipated near term oil turnaround turnaround 2 Major McMurray McMurray forest sands decline rate Fort 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dividends Sustaining Capital Suncor’s 8 ~460mbpd Discretionary Free Funds Flow WTI Average Price refining network ~$30 Capital discipline 2018 Oil Sands operations 9 sustaining capex + cash cost 1.6x Net debt to FFO 3 1.5x under the previous leasing standard10 USD / bbl Global Global Target < 3x markets markets 30% Total debt to capitalization 28% under the previous leasing standard10 Target 20-35% Suncor and 3rd party ~$45 global markets $5.3B Liquidity 2019 break-even4 WTI (USD) Cash & cash equivalents ($1.9B) plus sustaining capital + dividend Available credit facilities ($3.4B)11 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 6 The foundation of our business Operational excellence Reliability Continuously improve the reliability of our business Personal and process safety Journey to Zero – goal to eliminate all workplace incidents Cost management Continuous focus on structural cost reduction initiatives Environmental excellence and sustainability Aiming to improve environmental performance, go beyond compliance in key areas Autonomous Haul Systems can reduce costs by ~$1/bbl1 and improve safety, productivity, reliability, and environmental Capital discipline performance Flexible allocation plan years of dividend increases2 Significant portfolio of high quality assets across the business % Q1 2019 dividend increase 17 Balance sheet strength Opportunistic share buybacks Liquidity and strong investment-grade credit rating through the commodity cycle 80 $100 Shareholder returns 60 $80 $60 Competitive & sustainable dividends, opportunistic share buybacks 40 $40 20 $20 Profitable growth 0 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Strategic acquisitions & divestments; high-quality organic growth potential Shares WTI 1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 7 Capital discipline – flexible capital allocation plan1 $10/bbl increase in Brent price would generate approximately $2.4 billion of additional FFO2 Capital commitment Discretionary capital Balance Sustained Production sheet price growth to leverage 3 Sustaining Buyback4 outlook* 2020 Dividend4 Growth Capital1 metrics Capital1,6 target Invest <$0.5B in cost reduction <$45 WTI Upper range None USD Annually and efficiency projects ~10% Invest $50 - $60 in value driven growth per Continually <$1.5B $1 - $2B WTI Mid range projects and share driven grow with Annually Annually USD ~3.0B to production growth by Fort sustainable ~4.0B developments Hills, FFO5 Syncrude increases $60 - $80 and Hebron $1.5 - $3.0B $2 - $3B Low range WTI Annually Advance Annually USD value driven projects and production growth Low range & <$3.0B developments $3B+ >$80 WTI increasing USD Annually Annually cash position * Assumes a constant Brent–WTI price differential of +$5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 8 Medium-term investment proposition1 – free funds flow2 growth Free funds flow2 improvement potential for years 2020 - 2023 inclusive3 Examples of anticipated high return investment opportunities3 Excluding commodity price changes & largely independent of production growth Suncor – Syncrude pipeline Tailings management investment savings $2.0B ~$200M at >25% IRR ~$4 per bbl Potential to deliver Conservative return based on Average go forward expected sustaining incremental planned outages capital, reclamation & opex savings for free funds base plant mined bitumen versus 2 flow of Further potential value upside 2018 spend ~$500M/yr including mitigation of unplanned outages and product sharing during Tailings placement in pit - less land use normal operations Less tailings transport & handling Growth Margin Opex savings Sustaining Total value add (slide 21 for further details) Accelerated dewatering of ponds improvements capital savings (slide 23 for further details) Examples of short lead time & high quality initiatives independent of commodity market conditions Growth Margin improvements Opex and sustaining capital savings Asset synergies E&P Coke fired boiler replacement Coordinated maintenance strategy, timing, materials, critical trades, etc. Value developments & Cogeneration with lower cost, high efficiency asset extensions steam and power revenue upside AHS4 deployment Base mine & Fort Hills implementation Suncor - Syncrude pipeline Supply chain optimization Optimizing Syncrude assets & Suncor’s sour Debottlenecks Equipment standardization and inventory consolidation/reduction Fort Hills, MacKay River & SCO margins Firebag processing facilities Supply & trading Tailings management Value chain optimization Implementation of PASS5 Digital technology adoption Wireless employee badges (worker safety & optimization), Advanced process analytics (operational optimization), Robotic process automation (cost reduction), etc. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 9 Longer term organic growth – Replication1 Targeting less than $50 WTI (USD) cost of capital breakeven1 Planned phases of 40 mbpd next ~10 generation in situ facilities (replication) Phases submitted for regulatory approval 7 2 approved and 5 pending approval 2023/24 Potential first oil from first phase 3 Months expected between first oil 12 to 15 from successive phases 360+ Mbpd production growth plans2 Potential replication production growth profile 400 Replication facilities approved by 300 the regulator Replication facility application submitted 200 mbpd 100 0 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 10 Disciplined cost management History of structural cost reductions Medium-term cash operating Consistent reduction in Oil Sands operations cash operating costs (C$/bbl) 4 (Fort Hills and Syncrude cash operating costs are not included) cost targets (C$/bbl) $40 Oil Sands1 Oil Sands ≤ $20/bbl $37.00 Fort Hills ≤ $20/bbl Reflects a heavy Syncrude ≤ $30/bbl maintenance year Mining2 $27.55 Enterprise-wide $25.55 cost reduction initiatives $25.25 Operational Improved reliability across assets $20 through sharing technology and In situ3 procedures, coordinated maintenance $16.50 planning and asset connectivity Technology Technology applications such as robotic process automation, advanced analytics, Autonomous Haul Trucks $8.45 and Artificial Intelligence Supply chain & business processes Improved cost and efficiency across assets $0 through contractor and parts 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 standardization, bulk procurement and streamlined processes 1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 11 Generating discretionary free funds flow1 FFO2 consistently exceeds sustaining capital, associated capitalized interest and dividends (C$ billions) $12 $10 $10.2 $8 $9.1 $6 $6.8 $6.0 $2.3 $4 $2.1 $1.6 $1.9 $2 $3.9 $3.0
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