INVESTOR INFORMATION Q1 2019
Published May 1, 2019 2 Canada’s leading integrated energy company
$85B ~940 mbpd ~600 mbpd 28+ years ~460 mbpd ~1750 1 Oil production Heavy upgrading 2P Reserve life Refining nameplate Enterprise value Retail sites4 As at March 31, 2019 nameplate capacity2 nameplate capacity2 index3 capacity2
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories 3 Suncor – A resilient business focused on shareholder returns
Cash flow growth Cash generation Strong potential FFO1 increase largely independent of market conditions Significant upside FFO1 sensitivity to WTI, based on TTM5 actuals US$62.80 WTI, 0.76 C$/US$, US$18.00 NYH 3-2-1 crack spread
2 (C$ billion) ~5% CAGR (Based on 2019 price guidance) $16 $14 TTM average production 750 mbbls/d $12
Debottlenecks, $10 cost reductions $8 Fort Hills, and margin Syncrude, improvements $6 and Hebron $4 $5.5B Sustaining capital6 + dividend
$2 $2.8B Sustaining capital6 $0 2018 FFO1 Production Free funds flow 2023E FFO1 $60 $63 $70 $75 $80 growth 3 growth4 TTM WTI ($USD) Shareholder returns Resilience Commitment to reliable returns through the commodity cycles Managing the balance sheet as a strategic asset
Dividend per share7 Liquidity Buyback per share7,8,9 Anticipated buyback per share7,9 7% $5.3B $1.9B cash and $3.4B in available lines of credit Dividend + buyback yield As at March 31, 2019 — 5% 5% A low Credit rating 1.88 Investment grade 0.85 DBRS (A Low) Stable, S&P(A-) stable, Moody’s (Baa1) Stable 1.14 3% 3% Baa1 WTI FFO Break-Even10 (USD) 1.02 1.14 1.16 1.28 1.44 1.68 ~$45 Sustaining capital6 + dividend 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2019
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 4 Multi-year focus on structural free funds flow growth1,2
Production growth5 Growth Free funds In situ replication flow growth projects1,5 Opportunistic Production share buybacks Debottlenecks, cost growth reductions & margin Fort Hills, Syncrude improvements and Hebron ~4% anticipated Sustain the business & ~5% anticipated production CAGR continually grow the ~10% anticipated FFO CAGR (Refer to slide 9) dividend production growth 2 per share4 (Refer to slide 8) 2023/2024 forward 3 2020 – 2023 Structural FFO growth 2019 – 2020 & balance sheet strength (Refer to slide 7)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 5 The Suncor business advantage
Long life, low decline Unique business Financial strength and low cost integration through market cycles ~800 mbpd 2019 production guidance midpoint5 ~1000 mbpd of conversion capacity6 8 ~600 mbpd of heavy upgrading capacity7 Resilient free funds flow ~31yrs ~$93 Oil Sands 2P ~$65 ~$49 ~$43 ~$51 Reserve Life Index1 Oil E&P Sands ~$10.2B Resources ~$9.0B ~$9.1B
~$6.8B Suncor’s ~560mbpd ~$6.0B
Minimal Fort McMurray ear
upgrading y
ires planned planned decline f
~1% anticipated near term oil turnaround turnaround
2 Major
McMurray McMurray forest sands decline rate Fort 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dividends Sustaining Capital Suncor’s 8 ~460mbpd Discretionary Free Funds Flow WTI Average Price refining network ~$30 Capital discipline 2018 Oil Sands operations 9 sustaining capex + cash cost 1.6x Net debt to FFO 3 1.5x under the previous leasing standard10 USD / bbl Global Global Target < 3x markets markets 30% Total debt to capitalization 28% under the previous leasing standard10 Target 20-35%
Suncor and 3rd party ~$45 global markets $5.3B Liquidity 2019 break-even4 WTI (USD) Cash & cash equivalents ($1.9B) plus sustaining capital + dividend Available credit facilities ($3.4B)11
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 6 The foundation of our business Operational excellence Reliability Continuously improve the reliability of our business
Personal and process safety Journey to Zero – goal to eliminate all workplace incidents
Cost management Continuous focus on structural cost reduction initiatives
Environmental excellence and sustainability
Aiming to improve environmental performance, go beyond compliance in key areas Autonomous Haul Systems can reduce costs by ~$1/bbl1 and improve safety, productivity, reliability, and environmental Capital discipline performance
Flexible allocation plan years of dividend increases2 Significant portfolio of high quality assets across the business % Q1 2019 dividend increase 17 Balance sheet strength Opportunistic share buybacks Liquidity and strong investment-grade credit rating through the commodity cycle 80 $100 Shareholder returns 60 $80 $60 Competitive & sustainable dividends, opportunistic share buybacks 40 $40 20 $20 Profitable growth 0 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Strategic acquisitions & divestments; high-quality organic growth potential Shares WTI
1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 7 Capital discipline – flexible capital allocation plan1
$10/bbl increase in Brent price would generate approximately $2.4 billion of additional FFO2
Capital commitment Discretionary capital Balance Sustained Production sheet price growth to leverage 3 Sustaining Buyback4 outlook* 2020 Dividend4 Growth Capital1 metrics Capital1,6 target
Invest <$0.5B in cost reduction <$45 WTI Upper range None USD Annually and efficiency projects
~10% Invest $50 - $60 in value driven growth per Continually <$1.5B $1 - $2B WTI Mid range projects and share driven grow with Annually Annually USD ~3.0B to production growth by Fort sustainable ~4.0B developments Hills, FFO5 Syncrude increases $60 - $80 and Hebron $1.5 - $3.0B $2 - $3B Low range WTI Annually Advance Annually USD value driven projects and production growth Low range & <$3.0B developments $3B+ >$80 WTI increasing USD Annually Annually cash position
* Assumes a constant Brent–WTI price differential of +$5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 8 Medium-term investment proposition1 – free funds flow2 growth
Free funds flow2 improvement potential for years 2020 - 2023 inclusive3 Examples of anticipated high return investment opportunities3 Excluding commodity price changes & largely independent of production growth Suncor – Syncrude pipeline Tailings management investment savings $2.0B ~$200M at >25% IRR ~$4 per bbl
Potential to deliver Conservative return based on Average go forward expected sustaining incremental planned outages capital, reclamation & opex savings for free funds base plant mined bitumen versus 2 flow of Further potential value upside 2018 spend ~$500M/yr including mitigation of unplanned outages and product sharing during Tailings placement in pit - less land use normal operations Less tailings transport & handling Growth Margin Opex savings Sustaining Total value add (slide 21 for further details) Accelerated dewatering of ponds improvements capital savings (slide 23 for further details)
Examples of short lead time & high quality initiatives independent of commodity market conditions
Growth Margin improvements Opex and sustaining capital savings
Asset synergies E&P Coke fired boiler replacement Coordinated maintenance strategy, timing, materials, critical trades, etc. Value developments & Cogeneration with lower cost, high efficiency asset extensions steam and power revenue upside AHS4 deployment Base mine & Fort Hills implementation Suncor - Syncrude pipeline Supply chain optimization Optimizing Syncrude assets & Suncor’s sour Debottlenecks Equipment standardization and inventory consolidation/reduction Fort Hills, MacKay River & SCO margins Firebag processing facilities Supply & trading Tailings management Value chain optimization Implementation of PASS5
Digital technology adoption Wireless employee badges (worker safety & optimization), Advanced process analytics (operational optimization), Robotic process automation (cost reduction), etc.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 9 Longer term organic growth – Replication1
Targeting less than $50 WTI (USD) cost of capital breakeven1
Planned phases of 40 mbpd next ~10 generation in situ facilities (replication)
Phases submitted for regulatory approval 7 2 approved and 5 pending approval
2023/24 Potential first oil from first phase 3
Months expected between first oil 12 to 15 from successive phases
360+ Mbpd production growth plans2
Potential replication production growth profile 400
Replication facilities approved by 300 the regulator
Replication facility application
submitted
200 mbpd
100
0 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 10 Disciplined cost management
History of structural cost reductions Medium-term cash operating Consistent reduction in Oil Sands operations cash operating costs (C$/bbl) 4 (Fort Hills and Syncrude cash operating costs are not included) cost targets (C$/bbl)
$40 Oil Sands1 Oil Sands ≤ $20/bbl $37.00 Fort Hills ≤ $20/bbl
Reflects a heavy Syncrude ≤ $30/bbl maintenance year
Mining2 $27.55 Enterprise-wide $25.55 cost reduction initiatives
$25.25 Operational Improved reliability across assets $20 through sharing technology and In situ3 procedures, coordinated maintenance $16.50 planning and asset connectivity
Technology Technology applications such as robotic process automation, advanced analytics, Autonomous Haul Trucks $8.45 and Artificial Intelligence
Supply chain & business processes Improved cost and efficiency across assets $0 through contractor and parts 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 standardization, bulk procurement and streamlined processes
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 11 Generating discretionary free funds flow1
FFO2 consistently exceeds sustaining capital, associated capitalized interest and dividends (C$ billions) $12
$10 $10.2
$8 $9.1
$6 $6.8 $6.0 $2.3
$4 $2.1 $1.6 $1.9
$2 $3.9 $3.0 $2.7 $2.3
$0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
WTI US$3 $48.75 $43.35 $50.95 $64.80 $58.00
NYH 3-2-1 US$4 $19.70 $14.05 $17.70 $18.00 $17.00
Sustaining capital Dividend FFO2 Illustrative 2019 FFO2,5 2019 Estimated sustaining capital6 + dividends7
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 12 Returning value to shareholders
17 consecutive years of dividend increases1 & opportunistic share buybacks with increased share repurchase program2
17% $0.42 ~$5 billion ~$514 million $2 billion Share repurchases Share repurchase Q1 2019 dividend Q1 2019 dividend per NCIB programs executed3 completed program commenced increase share (May 2017 - Dec 2018) (Jan 2019 - Mar 2019) March 20194
2 $100 Expected buyback in 2019 $3.50 Buyback per share (Actual)2,5,6,7 Buyback per share (Expected)2,5,7 $3.00 Dividend per share5 $80 WTI US$ Dividends $2.50 expected to $60 grow in line
$2.00 with
bbl sustainable FFO8
7 $1.50 US$/ increases C$/share $40
$1.00
$20 $0.50
$0 $0.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 13 Strong balance sheet
1 1 1.6x Net debt to FFO Net debt to FFO 1.5x under the previous leasing standard2 Has remained within target range throughout all price cycles Target < 3x 30% Total debt to capitalization 97.95 28% under the previous leasing standard2 94.20 93.00 Target 20-35% WTI $5.3B Liquidity ($US/bbl) Cash & cash equivalents ($1.9B) plus available credit facilities ($3.4B)1 as at March 31, 2019 64.80 Investment grade credit rating 48.75 54.90 A 50.95 low DBRS Rating Limited (A Low) Stable 43.35 Standard and Poor’s Rating Services (A-) Stable Baa1 Moody’s Corp (Baa1) Stable 3x
3 2.4 Manageable debt maturity profile (C$ billion) Increase due to new 2
leasing standard 1.7 2019-2020 $0.2 1.6 1.4 1.5
2021-2024 $2.7 Target range Target 0.9 2025-2029 $1.5 0.7 0.7 2030-2034 $1.7
1 Net debt to FFO 2035-2039 $5.1
0x 2040-2047 $1.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 14 Generating industry-leading FFO1 per barrel and shareholder returns
Delivering leading FFO1 per barrel2 and shareholder returns despite Canadian oil differential headwinds, demonstrating the value of our integrated business model and global competitiveness Quality cash flow Shareholder returns Reliable quality cash flow from Suncor’s unique Growing dividends and executing opportunistic integrated business share repurchases with sustainable discretionary free funds flow
FFO1/boe WTI Total cash yield ($US/boe) ($US/bbl) (dividend + buyback)
$60 120 10%
9% $50 100 8%
7% $40 80 6%
$30 60 5%
4% $20 40 3%
2% $10 20 1%
$- 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Suncor WTI Oil Sands peer range3 Supermajor peer range3 Suncor dividend yield4 Suncor buyback yield5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 15 Return on capital employed1 past the inflection point
Suncor's spending on major capital projects Fort Hills and Hebron completed The 50-year, long-life, low-decline production profile of Fort Hills has begun Focusing on near-term low capital intensity and high value added projects2 Debottleneck existing assets, product margin improvements and further cost reductions
ROCE1 compared to supermajors 20% $100
$80 15%
$60 10%
$40
5% $20
0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $0
-5% -$20
Supermajor peer range3 Suncor WTI (US$/bbl)
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 16 The value of Suncor’s integrated business
Benefiting from our crude and product strategy through all market cycles
Exposure to high value product pricing provides significant cash flow upside potential
BRENT E&P production attracts Brent based pricing PRICING ~110mbpd Offshore production with access to tidewater
SYNTHETIC Bitumen conversion to a higher value synthetic oil1 PRICING ~600mbpd Heavy upgrading capacity1
GLOBAL HEAVY Oil sands bitumen with direct access to global markets mbpd PRICING ~100 Logistical flexibility for non-upgraded bitumen
GLOBAL Suncor’s refined products capacity1 sold for global pricing PRODUCT 2 ~460mbpd ~260 mbpd of oil sands synthetic and heavy feedstock capability PRICING Remaining light oil feedstock purchased in the market
Integration between upstream, midstream & downstream businesses minimizes downside risks from differential volatility Heavy differential sensitivity Synthetic differential sensitivity
Up to $25M FFO3 impact anticipated (CAD) per $1 annual Between $20M to $40M FFO3 impact anticipated (CAD) per $1 change (USD) in a normalized Western Canadian L/H4 annual change (USD) in a normalized synthetic to WTI benchmark5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 17 IMO1 2020 – Positive FFO2 impact expected for Suncor
Expect IMO1 regulatory change will enhance demand for middle distillates used in new marine fuel
Projected impacts Suncor advantages Decreasing global demand for bunker fuel3 Minimal exposure to bunker fuel Sales from Suncor refineries (~1%)
Widening global L/H4 differentials Minimal impact of widening L/H4 spread <$25M FFO2 impact expected for every $1 annual change in a normalized Western Canadian L/H4
Increasing global pricing for diesel Significant diesel production ~40% of Suncor’s refinery production is weighted to diesel
Increasing value for synthetic crudes Significant high quality synthetic production ~500 mbpd of higher distillate yield synthetic barrel (~40% yield) versus a WTI barrel (~30% yield)
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 18 Regional synergy opportunities1 for existing assets
Crude logistics Upgrader feedstock optionality from multiple oil sands assets Crude feedstock optionality for Edmonton refinery
Supply chain Sparing, warehousing and supply chain management Consolidation of regional contracts (lodging, busing, flights, etc.)
Operational optimizations Unplanned outage impact mitigations Turnaround planning optimization Process and technology sharing
100% WI
Joint ownership
Base mine upgrader and terminal
Assets and resource developments U Syncrude upgrader
Lease development and asset utilization optimization C In situ central processing facility P Fort Hills primary/secondary extraction Pipelines Proposed bi-directional pipelines1
1 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 19 Market access for Suncor’s oil sands production
Suncor has made strategic investments in refineries and current/proposed logistics infrastructure to mitigate Alberta egress limitations and market disconnects
Fort McMurray ~750 Alberta egress bottleneck does not impact the ability to move Suncor barrels1 142 Edmonton Hardisty Enbridge Line 3 Potential Markets Regina Central & Eastern Vancouver Cromer Canada, US Midwest & Gulf Coast
137 Montreal TMEP Potential Superior Markets Asia & California 85
Sarnia
Steele City Chicago 98 Denver Patoka Suncor refinery capacity San Francisco mbpd Cushing Industry approximate rail Pipelines KXL Potential mbpd loading capacity in Los Angeles (current and forecasted gross capacity2) Markets AB/SK Feeder lines Heavy oil refineries 2 Trans Mountain Pipeline, TMPL (300 mbpd) along the Gulf Coast Trans Mountain Expansion , TMEP – Proposed3 (+590 mbpd)2 Express, Platte and Rocky Mountain (280 mbpd)2 Houston/Texas City TransCanada Keystone (590 mbpd)2 TransCanada Keystone XL – Proposed3 (+830 mbpd) 2
Enbridge Mainline (2,600 mbpd)2 Enbridge Line 3 – Proposed3 (+370 mbpd) 2
Enbridge Line 9 (300 mbpd)2 Flanagan South Pipeline (585 mbpd)2 Marine opportunities
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 20 Fort Hills – Leading deployment of mining technologies
Higher quality, fungible product Enhanced reliability & efficiency
Secondary extraction – Paraffinic Froth Treatment Autonomous Haul Systems Bitumen froth mixed with solvents to remove water and minerals Heavy haulers are AHS ready, full deployment expected by 2021 Greater reliability & productivity Designed to run 24/7 with no “breaks”
Shipped Lower costs ~$1/bbl opex savings1 >75% bitumen directly to market Safer operations ~10% asphaltenes Minimizes human interface in the mine, obstacle detection <0.5% water & sediment
~10% asphaltenes Deposited back into >2% water & sediment Improved tailings technology mine pit Use of thickener process and PASS Partially upgraded In process rapid dewatering coupled with in pit tailings storage Higher value due to reduced asphaltenes content Reduced energy intensity & operating costs Lower GHG emissions Flocculant2 added in process to aid in dewatering tailings In line with the average crude refined in the U.S. Warm water from rapid dewatering is reused in the plant Less diluent required Resulting lower energy demand reduces costs and GHG emissions ~20% diluent mix vs. ~30% for in situ barrel transportation Faster reclamation Fungible product Partially dewatered tailings feed into PASS process (slide 23) Meets pipeline, refinery specifications, no further upgrading
1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 21 Syncrude – Following Suncor’s proven reliability journey
Suncor base plant upgrader reliability 91% 91% 1 Multi-year journey to reach >90% reliability 90%
Reliability step-change after 4 years 83% Not a gradual profile 81%
80% 79%
Suncor began focusing on upgrader reliability initiatives in 2011 Culture – Operational excellence mindset Process – Integrated maintenance strategy/approach
Infrastructure – Asset integration between Firebag and base plant
Firebag to basemine basemine to Firebag pipeline interconnect operational fully
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Syncrude plant reliability A similar multi year journey targeting >90% reliability2 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020/21 (Target >90% reliability & <$30/bbl cash cost2,3) Collaboration Culture Infrastructure Suncor’s active involvement in 13 technical/management Two bi-directional pipelines connecting Syncrude & Suncor’s base mine4 Syncrude’s reliability secondees from Suncor sharing Expected cost for the <15 km distance is ~$200M (gross)5 improvement plan operational discipline learnings Better utilization of existing assets: Sharing technical & reliability Process synergies • Normal operations - Transfer of sour synthetic and bitumen between assets best practices and support to Leveraging service & materials • Planned and unplanned outages - Asset and production optimizations improve productivity, reliability economies of scale and reduce costs Maintenance planning & execution Agreement in principle reached on key commercial terms coordination Engineering in progress
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 22 ESG leadership
Environment
Regulatory & policy leadership GHG & water performance Technology & innovation
Operate under one of the most stringent, >60% reduction in Oil Sands Base GHG emissions $635M in technology investments in 20184 transparent and compliance-focused regulatory intensity since 1990 Significant new technology deployment frameworks1 Goal to reduce corporate GHG intensity by 30% PFT, AHS, PASS, NCG co-injection5 2 Participation in government-led initiatives to by 2030 External collaboration advance leadership in Canada’s O&G sector Estimated carbon cost for upstream production is up to Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance (COSIA) (e.g. 2018 co-chair Resources of the Future) $0.60/bbl3 over the period 2018-2027 Clean Resource Innovation Network A strong voice for practical, effective policy and ~30% reduction in water use intensity at Oil Sands NRG COSIA Carbon XPRIZE regulation development and design Base vs. the prior 4-year average EVOK Innovations (e.g. Bill C-69 amendments)
Social Governance
Advancing Aboriginal partnerships 2018 economic contribution Governance leadership
$503M agreement with Fort McKay and Mikisew $5.3 billion capital spend Chief Sustainability Officer reports to CEO Cree First Nations for 49% of ETF6 $2.3 billion government royalties & taxes Climate risk is overseen by the Board Spent $700M with Aboriginal businesses in 2018 8 $5 billion since 1999 Close to 5,000 vendors across Canada and Diverse and experienced Board of Directors 1,300 in the US 8 out of 9 are independent 30 Petro-Canada branded retail sites owned or Aboriginal representation leased by First Nations ~12,500 Suncor employees 33% are women Working with multiple Aboriginal communities on Executive compensation linked to financial, DPL7 to support PASS5 operational and ESG factors
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 23 Suncor’s tailings reclamation – PASS
PASS technology aims to rapidly dewater and treat tailings to accelerate reclamation and lower our environmental footprint at a lower cost Advancing execution, with regulatory approval received October 2017 Suncor pioneered TRO in 2010 (Tailings Reduction Operations)
Removal of MFT1 from tailings pond
Rapid dewatering of MFT1 with addition of flocculant2 Atmospheric drying of MFT1 Reclamation timeframe is extended Placement of MFT1 in thin layers for atmospheric drying takes time and is area limited due to drying process
Building on TRO with PASS (Permanent Aquatic Storage Structure)
Addition of coagulant3 to improve water quality
Placement of tailings below grade, suitable for lake bottom PASS does not result in new Reclamation timeframe is reduced Capping with aquatic cover (E.g. Demonstration Pit Lake) disturbed area
Anticipated benefits of PASS4 Faster reclamation Lower cost Community engagement Demonstrated results
In 2018, PASS doubled tailings treatment capacity to 165% of total annual tailings production
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories 24 Appendix 25 2019 Capital and production guidance1
2019 Capital2 Economic Investment3 Production4 $ millions percent boepd
Oil Sands 3,050 – 3,400 17% 410,000 – 440,000 Oil Sands operations E&P 1,000 – 1,200 97% 85,000 – 95,000 Fort Hills Downstream 700 – 775 23% 160,000 – 180,000 Syncrude Corporate 150 – 225 53% 105,000 – 115,000 E&P 430,000 – 450,000 Refinery throughput
Total $4,900 – $5,600 37% 780,000 – 820,000 Upstream production
2019 Planned maintenance for Suncor operated assets and Syncrude5,6
Upstream Timing Impact on quarter Downstream Timing Impact on quarter Firebag Q2 ~30 mbpd Edmonton Q2 ~10 mbpd U1 Q2 ~25 mbpd* Commerce City Q2 ~20 mbpd Fort Hills Q2/Q4 ~15/10 mbpd Montreal Q2 ~30 mbpd U2 Q3/Q4 ~25/15 mbpd* Sarnia Q2 ~15 mbpd Syncrude6 Q3/Q4 ~20/20 mbpd
* A portion of the SCO volume impact will be supplemented by increasing bitumen sales
2019 Sensitivities7 +1$/bbl Brent +$1/bbl NYH 3-2-1 +$0.01 FX +$1/GJ AECO +$1L/H Diff +$1L/L Diff (US$) (US$) (US$/C$) (C$) (US$) (US$)
FFO (C$ MM) ~240 ~150 ~(205) ~(240) ~(25) ~(20 – 40)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 26 High quality mining, in situ and upgrading portfolio1
In Situ Mining Firebag Base Plant 203,000 bpd capacity 350,000 bpd capacity Suncor working interest 100% Suncor working interest 100% 2,553 mmbbls 2P reserves1 1,418 mmbbls 2P reserves1
MacKay River Syncrude 38,000 bpd capacity Syncrude operated Suncor working interest 100% 205,600 bpd coking capacity (SU WI) 508 mmbbls 2P reserves1 Suncor working interest 58.74% 1,272 mmbbls 2P reserves1 (SU WI)
Future opportunities Fort Hills Lewis (SU WI 100%) Suncor operated Meadow Creek (SU WI 75%) 105,000 bpd capacity (SU WI) Suncor working interest 54.11% 1,438 mmbbls 2P reserves1 (SU WI) First oil achieved in January 2018
1 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 27 Focused on long life, low decline reserves base
Typical attributes1 of North American oil plays Initial Decline Sustaining Operating Reservoir Recovery Illustrative annual FFO2 profiles3 capital rate costs cost risk factor
Mining High Very low Low Medium Very low Very high
~85% of Suncor’s 2019 guidance production
In Situ Medium Low Low Low Low High
Offshore High Medium Medium Very low Medium Medium ~15% of Suncor’s 2019 guidance production
Tight oil Low Very high High Medium High Low
50 Years
Beneficial attribute Challenging attribute
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes. 28 Canada’s largest Refining & Marketing business
Edmonton refinery Sarnia refinery 142,000 bpd capacity 85,000 bpd capacity 100% oil sands feedstock1 ~75% oil sands feedstock1
Commerce City refinery Montreal refinery 98,000 bpd capacity 137,000 bpd capacity ~20% oil sands feedstock1 ~30% oil sands feedstock1
Marketing Other Over 500,000 bpd in product sales 4 wind farms3 (111 MW) 1766 North American retail sites St. Clair Ethanol plant (400 ML/yr) (~50% Suncor owned). 51% interest in Parachem Petro-Canada remained as the brand Global sulphur and petroleum coke with largest urban share of market in marketing Canada for 20182 300+ wholesale sites
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 29 Refining & Marketing – Demonstrating cash flow resilience
1 WTI – WCS ($US/bbl) R&M Funds from operations Refinery utilization vs. US average Suncor Capturing the value of widening differentials FFO ($CAD billions) Percent of refining capacity US Average2 Full turnaround 5 25.50 26.30 30 at the Edmonton 21.05 100% 19.40 refinery Q2 2018
20 4 13.50 13.85 11.95 3.8 10
3 3.2
2.9 2.8 0 2.7 2.6 90% 2 2.3
-10
1 US$/Cdn$ FX > $0.90 -20 (2012 – 2014)
0 -30 80% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019
Price realizations & refinery crude costs3 Realized GM6/bbl vs. NYH 3-2-1 benchmark All Suncor refineries Q1 2019, 40% equity feedstock4 All Suncor refineries Q1 2019 36.35 $120
28.65 $100 Brent C$84.255
$80 20.75
NYH $60 15.55 3-2-1 107 NYH C$ $40 3-2-1 62 60 US$ $20
Benchmark Benchmark Crude Product mix Yield/ Realized FIFO impact Realized 7 $0 crack crack differential & location feedstock/ GM (LIFO)7 GM (FIFO) OS realization Feedstock cost R&M realization differential other
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 30 Offshore with >390 million barrels of 2P reserves1
East Coast Canada North Sea
Hibernia ExxonMobil operated Buzzard Suncor working interest 20% CNOOC Petroleum Europe Limited operated 63 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) Suncor working interest 29.89% 57 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI)
Hebron ExxonMobil operated Suncor working interest 21.034%
31.6 mboepd planned net capacity Golden Eagle 147 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) CNOOC Petroleum Europe Limited operated First oil achieved in November 2017 Suncor working interest 26.69% 13 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI)
Terra Nova Suncor Energy operated Suncor working interest 37.675% 32 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) Oda Spirit Energy operated3 Suncor working interest 30% 11 mboepd planned net capacity White Rose 8 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) Husky Energy operated Suncor working interest 27.5%2 54 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI)
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 31 E&P – Investing in high value, low risk projects
Recent performance Sanctioned projects1
Fenja (Norway) mboe/d
120 • 17.5% working interest • 6 mbbls/d anticipated net peak production 100 Hebron • First oil expected 2021 80 White Rose 60 Hibernia Terra Nova 40 Buzzard Phase 2 (UK) Golden Eagle • 29.89% working interest 20 Buzzard • Production anticipated to offset natural declines 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 • First oil expected 2021
111.70 108.75 98.85 West White Rose Project (ECC4) $billions • ~26% working interest 2.5 71.05 Brent ($US/bbl) • 20 mbbls/d anticipated net peak production 52.40 54.25 2.0 • First oil expected 2022 43.75
1.5 FFO2 Future opportunities Free funds flow3 1.0 Capital spend • Rosebank-UK (40% Suncor WI) 0.5 • Near field developments including subsea
- tie-backs, field extensions and infill drilling 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 32 Track record of counter-cyclical acquisitions and divestments
10% Fort Hills WI $100 WTI US$/bbl Non-core UK offshore 1 Total E&P Canada $80 $ 2 37% Syncrude WI Canadian Oil Sands $60 7 Petro - Canada 6 1 5 4 2 3 3 Rosebank $40 30% WI
$20 4 5% Syncrude WI Murphy Oil $40 NYH 3- 2- 1 US$/bbl 3.31% Fort Hills WI Pioneer retail network 5 $30 Total E&P Canada $ $20 5% Syncrude WI4 Conoco Commerce Valero Commerce City 6 Mocal Energy City refinery refinery $10 17.5% Fenja WI5 Petro - Canada Faroe Petroleum
$0 7 Rosebank 10% WI6 $8 Colorado, Canadian & AECO US$/gj Trinidad & Tobago $6 g as assets $ Canadian gas assets $4 $ $2 Petro -Canada
$0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other divestments: East Tank Farm1, Lubricants2, wind facilities3 Acquisition
$ Divestment
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 33 Notes 34 Notes 35 Advisories
Forward-Looking Statements – This presentation contains certain in costs; the ability to access external sources of debt and equity capital employed (ROCE) and last in, first out (LIFO) – are not “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the United States capital; the timing and the costs of well and pipeline construction; prescribed by GAAP. All non-GAAP measures presented herein do Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and “forward-looking Suncor’s dependence on pipeline capacity and other logistical not have any standardized meaning and therefore are unlikely to be information” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities constraints, which may affect the company’s ability to distribute comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. legislation (collectively, “forward-looking statements”), including products to market; mandatory production curtailments being greater Therefore, these non-GAAP measures should not be considered in statements about: Suncor’s strategy and business plans; expected or imposed for longer than anticipated; the timely receipt of isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in compound annual growth rates, capital expenditures, shareholder regulatory and other approvals; the timing of sanction decisions and accordance with GAAP. All non-GAAP measures are included return growth, WTI break-even, balance sheet leverage metrics, Oil Board of Directors’ approval; the availability and cost of labour, because management uses the information to analyze business Sands decline rate, cost reductions, and operating and financial services, and infrastructure; the satisfaction by third parties of their performance, leverage and liquidity and therefore may be results; reserves estimates and reserve life indices; expected obligations to Suncor; the impact of royalty, tax, environmental and considered useful information by investors. See the “Non-GAAP utilization of assets; expectations for dividends, share repurchases, other laws or regulations or the interpretations of such laws or Financial Measures Advisory” section of the Q1 MD&A. production growth, funds from operations, free funds flow growth, regulations; applicable political and economic conditions; risks and ROCE; anticipated impact of changes in crude oil price associated with existing and potential future lawsuits and regulatory Funds from operations (previously referred to as cash flow from differentials; anticipated impact of IMO regulatory changes; potential actions; improvements in performance of assets; and the timing and operations) is defined in the Q1 MD&A, for the three months ended future free funds flow growth projects, including the timing and impact of technology development. March 31, 2019 is reconciled to the GAAP measure in the Q1 impact thereof, and free funds flow improvement and cash flow MD&A, for 2012 to 2018 is reconciled to GAAP measures in upside potential; illustrative funds from operations and discretionary Although Suncor believes that the expectations represented by such Suncor’s annual management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A) for free funds flow; target break-even cost of capital; plans around in forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no the respective year; annual E&P and R&M funds from operations for situ growth; cash operating costs targets; Suncor’s GHG intensity assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Suncor’s 2012 to 2017 are reconciled to GAAP measures in Suncor’s annual reduction goal; estimated average carbon cost for upstream Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the first quarter ended MD&A for the respective year; Oil Sands operations cash operating production; expectations, targets and potential opportunities with March 31, 2019 and dated May 1, 2019 (the Q1 MD&A), Annual costs (previously referred to as Oil Sands cash operating costs) is respect to Syncrude; expected IRR for Syncrude interconnecting Report for the year ended December 31, 2018 (the 2018 Annual defined in the Q1 MD&A, for the year ended December 31, 2018 is pipeline and tailings management savings; Oil Sands regional Report) and its most recently filed Annual Information Form/Form reconciled to the GAAP measure in the 2018 Annual Report, and for synergy opportunities; expectations for and potential benefits of 40-F and other documents it files from time to time with securities 2013 is reconciled to the GAAP measure in Suncor’s 2013 annual autonomous haul trucks, and PASS, expectations about Fort Hills; regulatory authorities describe the risks, uncertainties, material MD&A; discretionary free funds flow (previously referred to as capital and production guidance; expected peak production and first assumptions and other factors that could influence actual results discretionary free cash flow) is defined in the Q1 MD&A, for 2015 to oil dates for sanctioned E&P projects; goals with respect to and such factors are incorporated herein by reference. Copies of 2018 is reconciled to the GAAP measure in Suncor’s 2018 annual reliability, safety, cost management and sustainability; and potential these documents are available without charge from Suncor at 150 MD&A, and for 2014 is reconciled to the GAAP measure in Suncor’s future pipelines and market access expectations that are based on 6th Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta T2P 3E3, by calling 1-800-558- 2016 annual MD&A; the estimated impact of the LIFO method for Suncor’s current expectations, estimates, projections and 9071, or by email request to [email protected] or by referring to the three months ended March 31, 2019 is defined and reconciled in assumptions that were made by Suncor in light of its experience and the company’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com or EDGAR at the Q1 MD&A; and Fort Hills cash operating costs and Syncrude its perception of historical trends. Some of the forward-looking www.sec.gov. Except as required by applicable securities laws, cash operating costs are defined and reconciled to the GAAP statements may be identified by words such as “planned”, Suncor disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or measures in the Q1 MD&A. “estimated”, “target”, “goal”, “illustrative”, “strategy”, “expected”, revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new “focused”, “opportunities”, “may”, “will”, “outlook”, “anticipated”, information, future events or otherwise. Suncor’s actual results may Reserves– Unless noted otherwise, reserves information presented “potential”, “guidance”, “predicts”, “aims”, “proposed”, “seeking” and differ materially from those expressed or implied by its forward- herein for Suncor is presented as Suncor’s working interest similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees looking statements, so readers are cautioned not to place undue (operating and non-operating) before deduction of royalties, and of future performance and involve a number of risks and reliance on them. without including any royalty interests of Suncor, and is at December uncertainties, some that are similar to other oil and gas companies 31, 2018. For more information on Suncor’s reserves, including and some that are unique to Suncor. Users of this information are Suncor’s corporate guidance includes a planned production range, definitions of proved and probable reserves, Suncor’s interest, cautioned that actual results may differ materially as a result of, planned maintenance, capital expenditures and other information, location of the reserves and the product types reasonably expected among other things, assumptions regarding: commodity prices; based on our current expectations, estimates, projections and please see Suncor’s most recent Annual Information Form/Form 40- timing of commissioning and start-up, cost, characteristics, and assumptions (collectively, the “Factors”), including those outlined in F dated February 28th, 2019 available at www.sedar.com and capacity of capital projects; assumptions contained in or relevant to our 2019 Corporate Guidance available on www.sec.gov. Reserves data is based upon evaluations conducted Suncor’s 2019 Corporate Guidance; fluctuations in foreign exchange www.suncor.com/guidance, which Factors are incorporated herein by independent qualified reserves evaluators as defined in NI 51- and interest rates; product supply and demand; market competition; by reference. Suncor includes forward-looking statements to assist 101. future production rates; assets and facilities not performing as readers in understanding the company’s future plans and anticipated; expected debottlenecks, cost reductions and margin expectations and the use of such information for other purposes BOE (Barrels of oil equivalent) – Certain natural gas volumes improvements not being achieved to the extent anticipated; may not be appropriate. have been converted to barrels of oil on the basis of six thousand dividends declared and share repurchases below expected levels; cubic feet to one boe. This industry convention is not indicative of the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out Non-GAAP Measures – Certain financial measures in this relative market values, and thus may be misleading. planned activities; risks inherent in marketing operations (including presentation – namely funds from operations, free funds flow, Oil credit risks); imprecision of reserves estimates and estimates of Sands operations cash operating costs, discretionary free funds recoverable quantities of oil, natural gas and liquids from Suncor’s flow, Syncrude cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs, properties; expected synergies and the ability to sustain reductions In Situ cash operating costs, mining cash operating costs, return on 36 Slide Notes
Slide 2------All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of Directors. Slide 5------(1) Market capitalization + debt - cash and cash equivalents. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (1) As at December 31, 2018 and assumes that approximately 7.19 (2) Nameplate capacities as at March 31, 2019. Nameplate capacities (8) Figure does not include the $43 million worth of shares repurchased billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of proved and probable may not be reflective of actual utilization rates. See Forward- in the twelve months ended December 31, 2015 ($0.03/share reserves (2P) are produced at a rate of 628.6 mboe/d, Oil Sands’ Looking Statements in the Advisories. repurchased in 2015). average daily production rate in 2018. Reserves are working interest (3) As at December 31, 2018 and assumes that approximately 7.58 (9) 2017 buyback per share reflects $1.4 billion of actual spend under before royalties. See Reserves in the Advisories. billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of proved and probable the normal course issuer bid (NCIB). 2018 buyback per share (2) Reflects Oil Sands’ anticipated compounded annual decrease in reserves (2P) are produced at a rate of 732.0 mboe/d, Suncor’s reflects $3.1 billion of actual spend under Suncor’s NCIBs. 2019 production for 2019-2023 and is calculated on a production- average daily production rate in 2018. Reserves are working buyback per share assumes the repurchase of approximately $2.0 weighted basis using planned production for those years, and interest before royalties. See Reserves in the Advisories. billion in 2019. Suncor’s Board of Directors has approved the assumes no economic capital spend, no acquisitions and no (4) 1527 retail sites are operated under the Petro-Canada brand. repurchase of up to $2.0 billion worth of the company’s common divestments during that period. Slide 3------shares beginning March 1, 2019. Suncor’s share repurchases are (3) Refers to Oil Sands operations sustaining capital per barrel, which is (1) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. opportunistic. The actual number of shares that will be repurchased calculated by dividing Oil Sands operations sustaining capital by Oil See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from operations and the timing of any such purchases will be determined by Suncor Sands operations production, plus Oil Sands operations cash is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities excluding and will depend on market conditions, funds flow and other factors, operating costs per barrel, all as indicated in the Q1 MD&A. Oil changes in non-cash working capital. FFO indicated for 2019 to and could differ materially from this assumption. See Forward- Sands operations cash operating costs is a non-GAAP financial 2023 is illustrative and is not intended to be a forecast of Suncor’s Looking Statements in the Advisories. measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. FFO. It is indicative of FFO based on the 2019 pricing guidance (10) Refers to estimated average WTI crude oil price for 2019 in US (4) Refers to estimated average WTI crude oil price for 2019 in US released on May 1, 2019, as well as the production and free funds dollars required for funds from operations for 2019 to equal dollars required for funds from operations for 2019 to equal flow growth assumptions outlined below. Actual results may differ estimated 2019 sustaining capital expenditures inclusive of estimated 2019 sustaining capital expenditures inclusive of materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. associated capitalized interest and dividends. Sustaining capital associated capitalized interest and dividends. Sustaining capital (2) Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is calculated for the years represents anticipated asset sustainment and maintenance capital represents anticipated asset sustainment and maintenance capital 2018 to 2023 using Suncor’s business plan. Actual results may vary expenditures plus well pad spend (inclusive of associated expenditures plus well pad spend (inclusive of associated materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. capitalized interest) based on the company’s current business capitalized interest) based on the company’s current business (3) Production growth assumes ~10% CAGR per share from 2018 to plans. Assumes production, sustaining capital and business plans. Assumes production, sustaining capital and business 2020 and is calculated using the midpoint of 2019 guidance as well environment at the midpoint of 2019 guidance released on May 1, environment at the midpoint of 2019 guidance released on May 1, as Suncor’s production growth business plan for 2020. Actual 2019 and a $0.42/share dividend for each quarter in 2019. All 2019 and a $0.42/share dividend for each quarter in 2019. All production may vary materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of Directors. dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of Directors. Actual the Advisories. Actual results may differ materially. See Forward-Looking results may differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in (4) Free funds flow, previously referred to as free cash flow, is Statements in the Advisories. the Advisories. calculated by taking funds from operations (FFO) and subtracting Slide 4------(5) Full guidance is available at suncor.com/guidance. See Forward- capital expenditures, including capitalized interest. Free funds flow (1) Free funds flow, previously referred to as free cash flow, is Looking Statements in the Advisories. is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the calculated by taking funds from operations (FFO) and subtracting (6) Conversion capacity as at March 31, 2019 and reflects Suncor’s Advisories. Illustrative free funds flow growth potential shown capital expenditures, including capitalized interest. Free funds flow upgrading and refining capacity. Conversion capacity may not be includes possible future opportunities currently being evaluated and is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the reflective of actual utilization rates. See Forward-Looking which may be subject to Board of Directors’, counterparty and Advisories. Statements in the Advisories. regulatory approval. There can be no assurance these opportunities (2) Based on the company’s current business plans and business (7) Nameplate capacities as at March 31, 2019. Nameplate capacities will be pursued or if pursued that they will result in the expected environment expectations, which are subject to change. Actual may not be reflective of actual utilization rates. See Forward- benefits. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. results may differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in Looking Statements in the Advisories. (5) Refers to Trailing Twelve Month average value as at March 31, the Advisories. (8) Free funds flow and discretionary free funds flow are non-GAAP 2019. (3) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. measures. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. (6) The classification of the company’s capital expenditures has been See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from operations (9) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. updated to “‘asset sustainment and maintenance’’ and ‘‘economic is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities excluding See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from operations investment’’ to better reflect the types of capital investments being changes in non-cash working capital. is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities excluding made by the company. Sustaining capital represents asset (4) Anticipated production growth per share is calculated using the changes in non-cash working capital. sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures (inclusive of midpoint of 2019 guidance as well as Suncor’s business plan for (10) New metrics include the impact for IFRS 16 which came into effect associated capitalized interest), which have been restated for April 2020. Actual results may vary materially. See Forward-Looking on January 1, 2019. 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018 to reflect the change in classification. Statements in the Advisories. (11) All figures are in billions of CAD. U.S dollar facilities converted at a For a description of asset sustainment and maintenance capital (5) Includes possible future opportunities currently being evaluated and USD/CAD rate of $0.75, the exchange rate as at March 31, 2019. expenditures see the Capital Investment Update section of the Q1 which may be subject to Board of Directors’, counterparty and MD&A. regulatory approval. Assumes the completion of incremental continued … (7) Based on the weighted average number of shares outstanding in pipeline capacity out of the Alberta market. There can be no each year for 2014 to 2018 and the weighted average number of assurance these opportunities will be pursued or if pursued that they shares outstanding for the three months ending March 31, 2019 for will result in the expected benefits. See Forward-Looking 2019. 2019 dividend amount assumes $0.42/share for each quarter. Statements in the Advisories. 37 Slide Notes (continued)
Slide 6------Slide 9------respective year. The WTI pricing for 2019 is based on Corporate (1) Expected opex savings are upon full implementation and are (1) Based on current business plans and business environment Guidance issued May 1, 2019. based on current plans and business environment expectations, expectations including completion of incremental pipeline capacity (4) The NYH 3-2-1 benchmark numbers for 2015-2018 are actual which are subject to change. See Forward-Looking Statements in out of the Alberta market. Includes projects subject to Board of averages for each respective year. The 2019 price is based on the Advisories. Directors’, counterparty and regulatory approval. Actual results Corporate Guidance issued May 1, 2019. (2) Annualized dividend increases for 17 years assumes $0.42/share and breakeven cost of capital may differ materially from this (5) Illustrative FFO is not intended to be a forecast of Suncor’s FFO. dividend for each quarter in 2019. All dividends are at the target. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. It is indicative of FFO based on the midpoint of 2019 guidance discretion of Suncor’s Board of Directors. See Forward-Looking (2) Gross project volume including CNOOC International's 25% released on May 1, 2019. Also based on continued industry Statements in the Advisories. interest in Meadow Creek. growth fundamentals. Actual results may differ materially. See Slide 7------(3) Refers to Other Six Lease Operators (OSLO). Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (1) Based on current business plans, which are subject to change. Slide 10------(6) 2019 sustaining capital represents anticipated asset sustainment See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (1) Refers to Oil Sands operations cash operating costs per barrel, and estimated maintenance capital expenditures (inclusive of (2) Baseline funds from operations (FFO) has been derived from which is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the associated capitalized interest) based on the company’s current midpoint of 2019 guidance and the associated business Advisories. business plans. Actual sustaining capital expenditures and environment. Sensitivities are based on changing a single factor (2) Refers to Mining cash operating costs per barrel, which is a non- associated capitalized interest along with the company’s business by its indicated range while holding the rest constant. FFO is a GAAP measure, and is calculated by taking the sum of OS&G plans may differ materially from those anticipated and are subject non-GAAP financial measure and is calculated as cash flow expenses (a GAAP measure) for Oil Sands, subtracting costs that to Board of Directors’ approval. For a description of asset provided by operating activities excluding changes in non-cash are not directly attributed to Oil Sands operations Mining bitumen sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures see the working capital. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. production, and dividing the resulting figure by Oil Sands Capital Investment Update section of the Q1 MD&A. See (3) Based on 2018 full year production and planned volumes for operations Mining bitumen production, as indicated for the Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. 2020. Actual production may vary materially. See Forward- applicable year in the Supplemental Financial and Operating (7) Assumes 2019 quarterly dividend of $0.42/share. All dividends Looking Statements in the Advisories. Information in the 2018 Annual Report and Suncor’s Annual are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of Directors. See Forward- (4) Dividends and future buybacks (NCIBs) are at the discretion of Report for the year ended December 31, 2017 (the 2017 Annual Looking Statements in the Advisories. Suncor’s Board of Directors. NCIBs are subject to maximum limits Report). See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Slide 12------permitted by law and stock exchange rules. See Forward-Looking (3) Refers to In situ cash operating costs per barrel, which is a non- (1) Annualized dividend increases for 17 years assumes $0.42/share Statements in the Advisories. GAAP measure, and is calculated by taking the sum of OS&G dividend for each quarter in 2019. All dividends are at the (5) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure expenses (a GAAP measure) for Oil Sands, subtracting costs that discretion of Suncor’s Board of Directors. See Forward-Looking and is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities are not directly attributed to Oil Sands operations In situ bitumen Statements in the Advisories. excluding changes in non-cash working capital. See Non-GAAP production, and dividing the resulting figure by Oil Sands (2) 2019 buyback per share assumes $2.0 billion of share Measures in the Advisories. operations In situ bitumen production, as indicated for the repurchases in 2019. Suncor’s Board of Directors has approved (6) Sustaining capital represents anticipated asset sustainment and applicable year in the Supplemental Financial and Operating the repurchase of up to $2.0 billion worth of its common shares maintenance capital expenditures (inclusive of associated Information in the 2018 Annual Report. See Non-GAAP Measures beginning March 1, 2019. Suncor’s share repurchases are capitalized interest) based on the company’s current business in the Advisories. opportunistic. The actual number of shares that will be plans. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. (4) Refers to Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills repurchased and the timing of any such purchases will be Slide 8------cash operating costs and Syncrude cash operating costs, which determined by Suncor and will depend on market conditions, (1) Based on possible future opportunities, including examples shown are non-GAAP measures. See Non-GAAP Measures in the funds flow and other factors, and could differ materially from this on the slide, currently being evaluated and which may be subject Advisories. Targets based on current business plans and assumption. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. to Board of Directors’, counterparty and regulatory approval. business environment expectations. Actual results may differ (3) Refers to approximately $5 billion of shares repurchased under There can be no assurance these opportunities will be pursued or materially from these targets. See Forward-Looking Statements in Suncor’s normal course issuer bid (NCIB) programs from May 2, if pursued that they will result in the expected benefits. See the Advisories. 2017 to December 31, 2018. Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Slide 11------(4) Refers to Suncor’s announced share repurchase program of $2.0 (2) Free funds flow, previously referred to as free cash flow, is (1) Discretionary free funds flow, previously referred to as billion, effective March 1, 2019. Suncor’s share repurchases are calculated by taking funds from operations (FFO) and subtracting discretionary free cash flow, is calculated by taking funds from opportunistic. The actual number of shares that will be capital expenditures, including capitalized interest. Free funds flow operations (FFO) and subtracting sustaining capital, inclusive of repurchased and the timing of any such purchases will be is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the associated capitalized interest, and dividends. Discretionary free determined by Suncor and will depend on market conditions, Advisories. funds flow is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in funds flow and other factors, and could differ materially from this (3) Based on company’s current business plans and the current the Advisories. amount. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. business environment, which are subject to change. Actual results (2) Funds from operations (FFO) is defined as cash flow provided by may differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the operating activities excluding changes in non-cash working continued … Advisories. capital. Funds from operations is a non-GAAP financial measure. (4) Refers to Autonomous Haulage Systems (AHS). See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. (5) Refers to Permanent Aquatic Storage Structure (PASS). (3) WTI pricing for 2015-2018 are actual averages for each 38 Slide Notes (continued)
Slide 12 continued------(5) Buyback yield is calculated as annual NCIB spend per share Slide 19------(5) Based on the weighted average number of shares outstanding in divided by average share price for the applicable year. (1) Based on Suncor’s forecast of market access capacity available each year for 2002 to 2018 and the weighted average number of Slide 15------to industry and Suncor’s planned production profile. See Forward- shares outstanding for the three months ending March 31, 2019 (1) Return on capital employed (ROCE) is a non-GAAP financial Looking Statements in the Advisories. for 2019. 2019 dividend metrics assume $0.42/share for each measure and is calculated as earnings before interest and income (2) Approximate total pipeline capacities based on publically sourced quarter. All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of taxes divided by the average of total assets less the average of information available at www.capp.ca and www.enbridge.com Directors. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. current liabilities at the beginning and end of each respective year. (3) Proposed future pipeline. There can be no assurance this pipeline (6) Figure does not include the $43 million worth of shares See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. ROCE as calculated will be built with the capacity indicated or at all. See Forward- repurchased in the twelve months ended December 31, 2015 by Suncor may not be comparable to similar measures presented Looking Statements in the Advisories. ($0.03/share repurchased in 2015). by other companies. The methodology used to calculate ROCE in Slide 20------(7) Based on the company’s current business plans, which are this investor presentation differs from the methodology used in the (1) Expected opex savings are upon full implementation and are subject to change. All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s company’s Q1 MD&A for the purposes of comparability across the based on current plans and business environment expectations, Board of Directors. See Forward-Looking Statements in the peer group. Source of information: Factset. which are subject to change. See Forward-Looking Statements in Advisories. (2) Based on current business plan and business environment the Advisories. (8) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure expectations, which are subject to change. Expected benefits may (2) The flocculant is a chemical used to help settle out solids. The and is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities not be achieved. See Forward-Looking Statements in the polymer flocculant attaches to clay particles in the mature fine excluding changes in non-cash working capital. See Non-GAAP Advisories. tailings (MFT) and causes them to be bound together, allowing Measures in the Advisories. (3) Supermajor peers in alphabetical order: BP p.l.c., Chevron the clay to be separated from the water. Slide 13------Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Slide 21------(1) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. Total SA. Source of information: Factset. (1) Excludes the impact of operations being shut-in due to forest fires See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from Slide 16------in the Fort McMurray region during the second quarter of 2016. operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating (1) Refers to nameplate capacity as at March 31, 2019. Nameplate (2) Targets based on current business plans and business activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. capacities may not be reflective of actual utilization rates. See environment expectations. Actual results may differ materially (2) New metrics include the impact for IFRS 16 which came into Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. from these targets. See Forward-Looking Statements in the , effect on January 1 2019. See “Indicators” in the Financial (2) Indicates processing capabilities. Advisories. Condition and Liquidity section of the Q1 MD&A. (3) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure (3) Refers to Syncrude cash operating costs, which is a non-GAAP (3) All figures are in billions of CAD. U.S dollar facilities converted at and is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. a USD/CAD rate of $0.75, the exchange rate at March 31, 2019. excluding changes in non-cash working capital. Sensitivities are (4) Subject to the finalization of commercial terms with the co-owners, Slide 14------based on changing a single factor by its indicated range while as well as regulatory approval. See Forward-Looking Statements (1) Funds from operations is a non-GAAP financial measure. See holding the rest constant. Anticipated FFO impact is based on in the Advisories. Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from operations (or company’s current business plans and the current business (5) Represents current estimate of cost to build pipeline. Actual the most similar non-GAAP measure as used by the respective environment, which are subject to change. Actual results may results may differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in peer) is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities differ materially. See Non-GAAP Measures and Forward-Looking the Advisories. excluding changes in non-cash working capital. Non-GAAP Statements in the Advisories. Slide 22 ------measures do not have any standardized meaning and therefore (4) Refers to Light-Heavy differential and reflects the difference (1) Source: An International Comparison of Leading Oil and Gas are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by between WTI and WCS crude pricing. Producing Regions – Environmental Regulation. 2014. other companies, including Suncor’s own funds from operations. (5) Reflects the difference between WTI and Syncrude sweet WorleyParsons and Canadian Association of Petroleum Therefore, these non-GAAP measures should not be considered premium (SSP) crude pricing. Producers. Available online. in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance Slide 17------(2) See Suncor’s 2018 Report on Sustainability for further details on prepared in accordance with GAAP. Figures are converted to US (1) IMO refers to International Maritime Organization. the methodologies used to calculate GHG and water intensities dollars at the average exchange rate for each period. (2) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. and our greenhouse gas goal. (2) Barrels refers to total production from all upstream assets by each See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from (3) Actual cost impact may differ materially. See Forward-looking company for the year. operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating Statements in the Advisories. (3) Oil Sands peers in alphabetical order: Canadian Natural activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. Actual (4) Includes spend on transformational digital technologies. Resources Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Husky Energy Inc., impact may vary materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in Imperial Oil Limited, MEG Energy Corp. MEG Energy Corp. has the Advisories. continued … been excluded from shareholder returns. Supermajors peers in (3) Bunker fuel refers to traditional heavy high sulphur bunker fuel. alphabetical order: BP plc., Chevron Corporation, ExxonMobil (4) Refers to Light-Heavy differential and reflects the difference Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell plc., Total S.A. Source of between WTI and WCS crude pricing in US dollars. information: Factset. Slide 18------(4) Dividend yield is calculated as annual dividend per share divided (1) Represents possible future opportunities currently being by average share price for the applicable year. evaluated. There can be no assurance these opportunities will be pursued. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. 39 Slide Notes (continued)
Slide 22 continued------Slide 26------Slide 30------(5) PFT refers to paraffinic froth treatment, AHS refers to (1) Reserves are working interest before royalties. See Reserves in (1) Reserves are working interest before royalties. See Reserves in autonomous haul systems, PASS refers to permanent aquatic the Advisories. The estimates of reserves for individual properties the Advisories. The estimates of reserves for individual properties storage structure, and NCG refers to non-condensable gas co- provided herein may not reflect the same confidence level as provided herein may not reflect the same confidence level as injection. estimates of reserves for all properties due to the effects of estimates of reserves for all properties due to the effects of (6) Refers to proceeds from the sale of a combined 49% interest in aggregation. Suncor’s total 2P Reserves (gross) for Canada are aggregation. Suncor’s 2P Reserves (gross) for total Canada, the East Tank Farm (ETF) development to the Fort McKay First 7,485 mmboe as at Dec. 31, 2018. North Sea UK and Norway North Sea, respectively, are 7,485 Nation and Mikisew Cree First Nations in November 2017. Slide 27------mmboe, 71 mmboe and 23 mmboe as at Dec. 31, 2018. (7) DPL refers to Demonstration Pit Lake. (1) Attributes are generalizations based on Suncor’s analysis of its (2) Suncor’s 27.5% working interest is for the White Rose base (8) Board statistics assume the election of the individuals nominated own projects and industry data. project. Suncor’s working interest in the White Rose growth lands for election to Suncor’s Board of Directors, as outlined in the 2019 (2) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. is 26.125%. Management Proxy Circular, at Suncor’s Annual General Meeting, See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from (3) Photo source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. to be held on May 2, 2019. operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating Slide 31------Slide 23 ------activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. (1) Actual peak production and first oil dates may vary from those (1) MFT refers to mature fine tailings, which occur in the middle layer (3) Annual FFO profiles are based on representative project expected. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. of a tailings pond after a period of settlement. economics (development capital, operating and sustaining costs) (2) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. (2) The flocculant is a chemical used to help settle out solids. The using consistent assumptions for future oil prices (including See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from polymer flocculant attaches to clay particles in the mature fine adjustments for quality, transportation and marketing costs), tax operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating tailings (MFT) and causes them to be bound together, allowing and royalty rates. Actual FFO may differ materially. See Forward- activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. the clay to be separated from the water. Looking Statements in the Advisories. (3) Free funds flow, previously referred to as free cash flow, is (3) The coagulant is a chemical used to improve water quality. It Slide 28------calculated by taking funds from operations (previously referred to causes suspended solids such as clay, residual bitumen and (1) Percentages indicate processing capabilities. as cash flow from operations) for E&P and subtracting E&P other naturally occurring constituents in tailings to settle out of the (2) Based on Kent survey results for year-end 2018. 1527 of the capital and exploration expenditures, excluding capitalized fluid state. 1766 retail sites are operated under the Petro-Canada brand. interest, all as indicated for the applicable year in Suncor’s (4) Actual results may differ materially. See Forward-looking (3) Includes working interests in four operating wind farms with gross respective Annual Reports. Management uses free funds flow to Statements in the Advisories. installed capacity of 111 MW. measure financial performance and liquidity. Free funds flow is a Slide 25------Slide 29------non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. (1) Full guidance is available at suncor.com/guidance. See Forward- (1) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure (4) Refers to East Coast Canada (ECC). Looking Statements in the Advisories. and is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities Slide 32------(2) Capital expenditures exclude capitalized interest of excluding changes in non-cash working capital. See Non-GAAP (1) Refers to the sale of a combined 49% interest in the East Tank approximately $150 million. Measures in the Advisories. Farm development to the Fort McKay First Nation and the (3) Balance of capital expenditures represents Asset Sustainment (2) Source: US Energy Information Administration Mikisew Cree First Nation in November 2017. and Maintenance capital expendituresFor a description of asset (3) OS realization is the average sales price for Oil Sands operations, (2) Refers to sale of Suncor lubricants business to a subsidiary of sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures see the before royalties and net of transportation costs. Feedstock cost is HollyFrontier Corporation, which closed on February 1, 2017. Capital Investment Update section of the Q1 MD&A. the average crude oil purchase price including transportation (3) Refers to the sale of Suncor’s interest in the Cedar Point wind (4) At the time of publication, production in Libya continues to be costs for Suncor’s Edmonton, Denver, Sarnia and Montreal facility, which closed on January 24, 2017 and sale of Suncor’s affected by political unrest and therefore no forward looking refineries for the three months ending March 31, 2019. R&M interest in the Ripley wind facility, which closed on July 10, 2017. production for Libya is factored into the Exploration and realization price represents revenue for all products across all (4) Refers to the acquisition of a 5% interest in Syncrude from Mocal Production and Suncor Total Production guidance. Production channels for the three months ending March 31, 2019. Energy, which closed in the first quarter of 2018. ranges for Oil Sands operations, Fort Hills, Syncrude and (4) Equity feedstock refers to refinery feedstock derived from (5) Refers to the acquisition of a 17.5% interest in the Fenja Exploration and Production are not intended to add to equal Suncor’s upstream production. Development from Faroe Petroleum, which closed in the second Suncor total production. (5) Brent averaged $63.20 USD for the three months ending March quarter of 2018. (5) Subject to change. Estimated impacts have been factored into 31, 2019 and was converted at a USD/CAD rate of $0.75, the (6) Refers to the acquisition of a 10% interest in Rosebank, which annual guidance. average exchange rate for the period. closed in the second quarter of 2018. (6) Syncrude is operated by Syncrude Canada Limited. (6) Gross Margin (GM) per barrel is defined as difference between (7) Baseline funds from operations (FFO) has been derived from the total value of petroleum products produced at a refinery less midpoint of 2019 guidance and the associated business the cost of the feedstock, divided by total throughput. environment. Sensitivities are based on changing a single factor (7) Last in, first out (LIFO) refers to the non-GAAP method of by its indicated range while holding the rest constant. FFO is a inventory accounting, while Suncor reports on a first in, first out non-GAAP financial measure and is calculated as cash flow (FIFO) basis consistent with IFRS accounting policy. See Non- provided by operating activities excluding changes in non-cash GAAP Measures in the Advisories. working capital. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Investor Relations contacts
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