INVESTOR INFORMATION Q3 2019
Published October 30, 2019 2 A resilient business focused on shareholder returns
Cash generation Funds flow growth progress Significant upside FFO1 sensitivity to WTI, based on TTM2 actuals Strong potential FFO1 increase largely independent of market conditions
(C$ billion) $14 FFO1 sensitivity to WTI based on TTM2 operating $12 and market conditions2 $10 TTM2 FFO1 +$2B FFO1 by 2023 $8 ~$10B 4 ~5% CAGR $6 Based on 2019 price guidance $5.5B Sustaining capital3 + dividend (Refer to slide 8) $4
$2 $2.9B Sustaining capital3
$0 1 1 $50 $55 $58 $65 $70 2018 FFO Execution Scoping Identification 2023E FFO WTI ($USD) Project Phase Shareholder returns Resilience Commitment to reliable returns through the commodity cycles Managing the balance sheet as a strategic asset
Dividend per share5 Liquidity Buyback per share5,6 8 Anticipated buyback per share5,7 7% $7.4B $2.1B cash and $5.3B in available lines of credit Dividend + buyback yield As of September 30, 2019 — 5% 5% low Credit rating A Investment grade 0.85 1.88 DBRS (A Low) Stable, S&P(A-) stable, Moody’s (Baa1) Stable 1.14 3% 3% Baa1 WTI FFO Break-Even9 (USD) 1.02 1.14 1.16 1.28 1.44 1.68 ~$45 Sustaining capital3 + dividend 2019E 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 3 Integrated across the value chain
Long life, low decline assets 100% oil production High margin barrels Strong downstream markets Iconic Canadian retail brand 28+ years ~940 mbpd ~600 mbpd ~460 mbpd ~1750
2P Reserve Life Index1 Oil production nameplate Heavy upgrading nameplate Refining nameplate capacity2 Petro-Canada retail sites3 capacity2 capacity2
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories 4 Multi-year focus on structural free funds flow growth1,2
Increasing FFO3 ~5% CAGR4 anticipated (2019 – 2023)
Production High return growth opportunities growth6 Free funds In situ replication Opportunistic share buybacks flow growth projects1,6 Production Maintain and grow the dividend Debottlenecks, cost growth reductions & margin Fort Hills, Syncrude improvements Sustain the business ~4% anticipated and Hebron ~5% anticipated production CAGR ~10% anticipated FFO CAGR (Refer to slide 27) Leading balance sheet strength production growth 5 (Refer to slide 8) 2024 forward2 per share 2020 – 2023 Structural FFO3 growth 2019 – 2020 (Refer to slide 7)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 5 Suncor’s competitive advantage
Long life, low decline Unique business Financial strength and low cost integration through market cycles ~785 mbpd 2019 production guidance midpoint5 ~1,000 mbpd of conversion capacity6 8 ~600 mbpd of heavy upgrading capacity7 Resilient free funds flow ~31yrs ~$93 Oil Sands 2P ~$65 ~$49 ~$43 ~$51 Reserve Life Index1 Oil E&P Sands ~$10.2B Resources ~$9.0B ~$9.1B
~$6.8B Suncor’s ~560mbpd ~$6.0B Minimal Fort McMurray upgrading ear
decline planned ~1% anticipated near term oil 2 Major Major turnaround y sands decline rate Fort McMurray forest fires 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dividends Sustaining Capital Suncor’s 8 ~460mbpd Discretionary Free Funds Flow WTI Average Price (USD) refining network ~$30 Capital discipline 2018 Oil Sands operations 9 sustaining capital + cash cost 1.5x Net debt to FFO 3 1.3x under the previous leasing standard10 USD / bbl Global Global Target < 3x markets markets 28% Total debt to capitalization 26% under the previous leasing standard10 Target 20-35%
Suncor and 3rd party ~$45 global markets $7.4B Liquidity 2019 break-even4 WTI (USD) Cash & cash equivalents ($2.1B) plus sustaining capital + dividend available credit facilities ($5.3B)11
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 6 The foundation of our business
Operational excellence
Personal and Process Safety Journey to Zero – goal to eliminate all workplace incidents
RELIABLE Reliability Continuously improve the reliability of our business
Cost Management Continuous focus on structural cost reduction initiatives
Environmental Excellence and Sustainability Aiming to improve environmental performance; go beyond compliance in key areas
SUSTAINABLE Capital discipline Flexible Capital Allocation Plan Significant portfolio of high quality assets across the business
Balance Sheet Strength Liquidity and strong investment-grade credit rating
Shareholder Returns Competitive and sustainable dividends; opportunistic share buybacks PROFITABLE Profitable Growth Strategic acquisitions and divestments; high-quality organic growth potential
See Advisories. 7 Capital discipline – flexible capital allocation plan1
US$10/bbl increase in Brent price would generate ~$2.4 billion of additional FFO2
Capital commitment Discretionary capital (C$) Sustained Balance Production price sheet growth to outlook* leverage Sustaining 3 Buyback4 2020 Dividend4 Capital1,6 Growth Capital1 WTI USD metrics target (C$)
Invest <$0.5B in cost reduction <$45 Upper range None Annually and efficiency projects
~10% Invest in value driven growth per Continually <$1.5B $1 - $2B $50 - $60 Mid range projects and Annually Annually share driven grow with production growth by Fort sustainable ~$3 - 4B developments Hills, FFO5 Syncrude increases and Hebron $1.5 - $3B $2 - $3B $60 - $80 Low range Annually Advance Annually value driven projects and production growth Low range & <$3B developments $3B+ >$80 increasing Annually Annually cash position
* Assumes a constant Brent–WTI price differential of +US$5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 8 Free funds flow1 growth – Medium-term investment proposition2
Free funds flow1 improvement potential for years 2020 - 2023 inclusive3 Excluding commodity price changes & largely independent of production growth
Identification
Scoping structural free funds flow1 growth $2.0B through margin improvements, Total $2B operating & sustaining capital cost reductions, Execution & pragmatic growth opportunities
Examples of current & prospective initiatives in various project phases Execution Scoping Identification Supply & Trading Value chain optimization Debottlenecks Fort Hills, MacKay River & Suncor / Syncrude Interconnecting Pipelines Firebag processing facilities Optimizing Syncrude assets & Suncor sour SCO margins; anticipated in-service 2H 2020 Coke Fired Boiler Replacement (cogen) Asset Synergies Refinery Optimization Coordinated maintenance Lower cost, high efficiency steam, power revenue upside; Product mix & turnaround optimization strategies, sharing of knowledge sanctioned September 2019; in-service Q4 2023 & best practices, etc. AHS Deployment4 Fully deployed at North Steepbank mine; Fort Hills & Millennium estimated 2020 – 2023 Process Transformation Tailings Management – Implementation of PASS5 Supply chain optimization, SAP S4 utilization, etc. ~$4/bbl expected savings (Refer to slide 20 & 23) Digital Technology Adoption Wireless employee badges (worker safety & optimization), advanced process analytics (operational optimization), robotic process automation (cost reduction), rotating equipment sensoring & remote monitoring, etc.
Opex & sustaining capital savings Margin Improvements Growth
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 9 New Cogeneration Facility Sanctioning1
Heat required for mining operations Economically Robust HIGH IRR2 independent of oil price & pipeline egress TEEN %
Natural gas Water Capital investment over 4 years INPUTS $1.4B Increase revenue from power sales 0 Lower sustaining capital by replacing aging asset
Sustainably Minded Annual emission reductions3 2.5MT ~25% progress toward GHG goal Electricity Steam Vehicle emissions equivalent4 550K ~15% of Alberta’s vehicles5 OUTPUTS
Low-carbon power sold to grid, displacing coal fired power Technologically Progressive Low-carbon power added to Alberta grid 800MW Displacing higher intensity coal power
Power consumed by retail and wholesale customers
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 10 Disciplined cost management
History of structural cost reductions Medium-term cash operating Consistent reduction in Oil Sands operations cash operating costs (C$/bbl) 4 (Fort Hills and Syncrude cash operating costs are not included) cost targets (C$/bbl)
$40 Oil Sands1 Oil Sands ≤ $20/bbl $37.00 Fort Hills ≤ $20/bbl
Reflects a heavy Syncrude ≤ $30/bbl maintenance year
Mining2 $27.55 Enterprise-wide $25.55 cost reduction initiatives
$25.25 Operational Improved reliability across assets $20 through sharing technology and In situ3 procedures, coordinated maintenance $16.50 planning and asset connectivity
Technology Technology applications such as robotic process automation, advanced analytics, Autonomous Haul Systems $8.45 and Artificial Intelligence
Supply chain & business processes Improved cost and efficiency across assets $0 through contractor and parts 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 standardization, bulk procurement and streamlined processes
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 11 Generating discretionary free funds flow1
FFO2 consistently exceeds sustaining capital, associated capitalized interest and dividends (C$ billions) $12
$10 $10.2
$8 $9.1
$6 $6.8 $6.0 $2.3
$4 $2.1 $1.6 $1.9
$2 $3.9 $3.0 $2.7 $2.3
$0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
WTI US$3 $48.75 $43.35 $50.95 $64.80 $56.00
NYH 2-1-1 US$4 $19.95 $13.90 $17.90 $19.30 $20.00
Sustaining capital Dividend FFO2 Illustrative 2019 FFO2,5 2019 Estimated sustaining capital6 + dividends7
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 12 Returning value to shareholders
Dividend increases1 for 17 consecutive years & opportunistic share buybacks2
17% $0.42 ~$5 billion ~$1.8 billion $2 billion Share repurchases Share repurchase Q1 2019 dividend Q3 2019 dividend per NCIB programs executed3 completed program commenced increase share (May 2017 - Dec 2018) (Jan 2019 - Sep 2019) March 20194
$100 $3.50 Buyback per share (Actual)2,5,6,7 Buyback per share (Anticipated)2,5,7 $3.00 Dividend per share5 $80 WTI US$ Flexible buyback program $2.50
$60
$2.00
bbl Dividends
expected to $1.50 US$/
$40 C$/share grow in line with sustainable $1.00 FFO8 $20 increases7 $0.50
$0 $0.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 13 Strong balance sheet
1 1 1.5x Net debt to FFO Net debt to FFO 1.3x under the previous leasing standard2 Has remained within target range throughout all price cycles Target < 3x 28% Total debt to capitalization 97.95 26% under the previous leasing standard2 94.20 93.00 Target 20-35% WTI $7.4B Liquidity ($US/bbl) Cash & cash equivalents ($2.1B) plus available credit facilities ($5.3B)1 as of September 30, 2019 64.80
57.05 A Investment grade credit rating 48.75 50.95 low DBRS Rating Limited (A Low) Stable Standard and Poor’s Rating Services (A-) Stable 43.35 Baa1 Moody’s Corp (Baa1) Stable 3x 2.4 Manageable debt maturity profile3 (C$ billion) 1.7 2019-2020 $0.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 2021-2024 $2.7
0.9 Target range Target 0.7 0.7 2025-2029 $2.2
Net debt to FFO 2030-2034 $1.7 Net debt to FFO1 under previous leasing standard2 2035-2039 $5.1 0x 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q3 2040-2047 $1.5
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 14 Generating industry-leading FFO1 per barrel and shareholder returns
Delivering leading FFO1 per barrel2 and shareholder returns despite Canadian oil differential headwinds, demonstrating the value of our integrated business model and global competitiveness Quality funds flow Shareholder returns Reliable quality funds flow from Suncor’s unique Growing dividends and executing opportunistic integrated business share repurchases with sustainable discretionary free funds flow
Total cash yield FFO1/boe WTI ($US) ($US/bbl) (dividend + buyback)
$60 120 10%
9% $50 100 8%
7% $40 80 6%
$30 60 5%
4% $20 40 3%
2% $10 20 1%
$- 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Suncor WTI Oil Sands peer range3 Supermajor peer range3 Suncor dividend yield4 Suncor buyback yield5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 15 Strong return on capital employed1 moving into 2020
ROCE1 comparison 20% $100
Oil Sands Peers $80 15%
$60 10% Suncor's spending on major capital projects $40 Fort Hills and Hebron completed 5% $20
0% $-
-5% $(20) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2 2019 The 50-year, long-life, low-decline TTM2 production profile of Fort Hills has begun 20% $100
Supermajor Peers $80 15%
$60 10% Focusing on medium-term low capital $40 intensity and high value added projects5 5% Debottleneck existing assets, product margin improvements and further cost reductions $20
0% $0
-5% -$20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2 2019 TTM2 Oil Sands peer range3 Supermajors peer range4 Suncor WTI (US$/bbl)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 16 The value of Suncor’s integrated business
Benefiting from our crude and product strategy through all market cycles
Exposure to high value product pricing provides significant cash flow upside potential
BRENT E&P production attracts Brent based pricing PRICING ~110mbpd Offshore production with access to tidewater
SYNTHETIC Bitumen conversion to a higher value synthetic oil1 PRICING ~600mbpd Heavy upgrading capacity1
GLOBAL HEAVY Oil sands bitumen with direct access to global markets mbpd PRICING ~100 Logistical flexibility for non-upgraded bitumen
GLOBAL Suncor’s refined products capacity1 sold for global pricing PRODUCT 2 ~460mbpd ~260 mbpd of oil sands synthetic and heavy feedstock capability PRICING Remaining oil feedstock purchased in the market
Integration between upstream, midstream & downstream businesses minimizes downside risks from differential volatility
Light/Heavy4 differential sensitivity Synthetic differential sensitivity
Up to $25M FFO3 impact anticipated (CAD) per $1 annual Between $20M to $40M FFO3 impact anticipated (CAD) per $1 annual change (USD) in a normalized Western Canadian L/H4 change (USD) in a normalized synthetic to WTI benchmark5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 17 IMO1 2020 – Positive FFO2 impact expected for Suncor
Expect IMO1 regulatory change will enhance demand for middle distillates used in new marine fuel
Projected impacts Suncor advantages Decreasing global demand for bunker fuel3 Minimal exposure to bunker fuel3 Sales from Suncor refineries (~1%)
Widening global L/H4 differentials Minimal impact of widening L/H4 spread <$25M FFO2 impact expected for every $1 annual change in a normalized Western Canadian L/H4
Increasing global pricing for diesel Significant diesel production ~40% of Suncor’s refinery production is weighted to diesel
Increasing value for synthetic crudes Significant high quality synthetic production ~500 mbpd of higher distillate yield synthetic barrel (~40% yield) versus a WTI barrel (~30% yield)
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 18 Regional synergy opportunities1 for existing assets
Crude logistics Upgrader feedstock optionality from multiple oil sands assets Crude feedstock optionality for Edmonton refinery
Supply chain Sparing, warehousing and supply chain management Consolidation of regional contracts (lodging, busing, flights, etc.)
Operational optimizations Unplanned outage impact mitigations Turnaround planning optimization Process and technology sharing
100% WI
Joint ownership Base mine upgrader and terminal
Assets and resource developments U Syncrude upgrader
Lease development and asset utilization optimization C In situ central processing facility P Fort Hills primary/secondary extraction Pipelines Sanctioned bi-directional pipelines1
1 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 19 Market access for Suncor’s oil sands production
Suncor has made strategic investments in refineries and current/proposed logistics infrastructure to mitigate Alberta egress limitations and market disconnects
Fort McMurray ~750 Alberta egress bottleneck does not impact the ability to move Suncor barrels1 142 Edmonton Hardisty Enbridge Line 3 Potential Markets Regina Central & Eastern Vancouver Cromer Canada, US Midwest & Gulf Coast
137 Montreal TMEP Potential Superior Markets Asia & California 85
Sarnia
Steele City Chicago 98 Denver Patoka Suncor refinery capacity San Francisco mbpd Cushing Industry approximate rail Pipelines KXL Potential mbpd loading capacity in Los Angeles (current and forecasted gross capacity2) Markets AB/SK Feeder lines Heavy oil refineries 2 Trans Mountain Pipeline, TMPL (300 mbpd) along the Gulf Coast Trans Mountain Expansion , TMEP – Proposed3 (+590 mbpd)2 Express, Platte and Rocky Mountain (280 mbpd)2 Houston/Texas City TC Energy Keystone (590 mbpd)2 TC Energy Keystone XL – Proposed3 (+830 mbpd) 2
Enbridge Mainline (2,800 mbpd)2 Enbridge Line 3 – Proposed3 (+370 mbpd) 2
Enbridge Line 9 (300 mbpd)2 Flanagan South Pipeline (585 mbpd)2 Marine opportunities
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 20 Fort Hills – Leading deployment of mining technologies
Higher quality, fungible product Enhanced reliability & efficiency
Secondary extraction – Paraffinic Froth Treatment Autonomous Haul Systems Bitumen froth mixed with solvents to remove water and minerals Heavy haulers are AHS ready, full deployment expected by 2021 Greater reliability & productivity Designed to run 24/7 with no “breaks”
Shipped Lower costs ~$1/bbl opex savings1 >75% bitumen directly to market Safer operations ~10% asphaltenes Minimizes human interface in the mine, obstacle detection <0.5% water & sediment Improved tailings technology ~10% asphaltenes Deposited back into >2% water & sediment mine pit Use of thickener process and PASS In process rapid dewatering coupled with in pit tailings storage Partially upgraded Reduced energy intensity & operating costs Higher value due to reduced asphaltenes content Flocculant2 added in process to aid in dewatering tailings Lower GHG emissions Warm water from rapid dewatering is reused in the plant In line with the average crude refined in the U.S. Resulting lower energy demand reduces costs and GHG emissions Less diluent required Faster reclamation ~20% diluent mix vs. ~30% for in situ barrel transportation Partially dewatered tailings feed into PASS process (slide 23) Fungible product Lower costs Meets pipeline, refinery specifications, no further upgrading ~$4/bbl average go forward expected reclamation, sustaining capital & opex savings for Base Plant mined bitumen versus 2018 spend3
1,2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 21 Syncrude – Following Suncor’s proven reliability journey
Suncor base plant upgrader reliability 91% 91% 1 Multi-year journey to reach >90% reliability 90%
Reliability step-change after 4 years 83% Not a gradual profile 81%
80% 79%
Suncor began focusing on upgrader reliability initiatives in 2011 Culture – Operational excellence mindset Process – Integrated maintenance strategy/approach
Infrastructure – Asset integration between Firebag and base plant
Firebag to basemineto Firebag pipeline interconnect operational fully
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Syncrude plant reliability A similar multi year journey targeting >90% reliability2 2016/17 2018/19 2020/21 (Target >90% reliability & <$30/bbl cash cost2,3) Collaboration Culture Infrastructure Suncor’s active involvement in 31 technical/management Two bi-directional pipelines connecting Syncrude & Suncor’s base mine Syncrude’s reliability secondees from Suncor sharing Expected cost for the <15 km distance is ~$200M (gross)4 improvement plan operational discipline learnings Better utilization of existing assets: Sharing technical & reliability Process synergies • Normal operations - Transfer of sour synthetic and bitumen between assets best practices and support to Leveraging service & materials • Planned and unplanned outages - Asset and production optimizations improve productivity, reliability economies of scale
and reduce costs Maintenance planning & execution Anticipated in-service 2H 2020 coordination
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 22 Sustainability leadership
Improving GHG performance Investing in the energy transition Building Indigenous partnerships Goal to reduce corporate GHG emissions Investing in new technologies across our value Increasing the participation of Indigenous intensity by 30% by 20301 chain to reduce costs while enhancing Peoples in energy development environmental performance2,3 ~10% GHG intensity reduction since 2014 $635M spent on technology development and $2.7B spent with Indigenous businesses since 2014 deployment in 20184
Baseline Energy 703 emissions efficiency intensity 30% Upstream Ambition to dramatically 599 Conventional lower our extraction New NFT Mining costs and footprint 521 technology through new 463 Conventional technologies 445 SAGD PFT6 Low-carbon Mining 2014 2030 fuels Non- Partial Baseline Target aqueous upgrading emissions emissions mining Solvent- Baseline Target intensity intensity Low-carbon based 2014 2030 power in situ emissions emissions intensity intensity 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Decreasing water content Spend ($M)
GHG goal: Guiding principles Downstream: Investing in alternative fuels ETFD5: New precedent for equity partnerships
Encourage new, lower intensity production as In our Downstream business, responsibly sourced Partnered with two Alberta First Nations6 in a part of our evaluation of new projects biofuels can help lower gasoline carbon footprint groundbreaking deal for 49% interest in ETFD5
Enerkem is developing technology to convert non- Drive emissions reductions in the energy $503M bond-financed transaction represents recyclable waste into biofuels and renewable system, within and external to our operations Canada’s largest Indigenous investment chemical products
Focus on the assets we operate, capture Suncor is investing funds and people to accelerate Investment is expected to provide a 20+ year emission reductions outside of our operations Enerkem’s growth, as part of our investment in a revenue stream for communities to invest to meet as indirect credits lower-carbon technology portfolio the needs of their people
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 23 Tailings reclamation – Reducing costs and footprint with PASS
PASS technology aims to treat fluid tailings to accelerate reclamation and lower our environmental footprint at a lower cost Successful commercial implementation achieved in 2018 Suncor pioneered TROTM in 2010 (Tailings Reduction Operations)
Removal of MFT1 from tailings pond
Rapid dewatering of MFT1 with addition of flocculant2 Atmospheric drying of MFT1 Reclamation timeframe is extended Placement of MFT1 in thin layers for atmospheric drying takes time and is area limited due to drying process
Building on TRO with PASS (Permanent Aquatic Storage Structure)
Addition of coagulant3 to improve water quality
Placement of tailings below grade, suitable for lake bottom PASS does not result in new Reclamation timeframe is reduced Capping with aquatic cover disturbed area
Anticipated benefits of PASS4 Faster reclamation Lower cost Community engagement Demonstrated results
In 2018, PASS doubled treatment capacity to 165% of total annual fluid tailings production
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories 24 Appendix 25 2019 Capital and production guidance1
2019 Capital2 Economic Investment3 Production4 $ millions percent boepd
Oil Sands 3,050 – 3,250 17% 410,000 – 425,000 Oil Sands operations E&P 1,000 – 1,150 97% 85,000 – 90,000 Fort Hills Downstream 700 – 775 23% 160,000 – 180,000 Syncrude Corporate 150 – 225 53% 105,000 – 110,000 E&P 430,000 – 450,000 Refinery throughput
Total $4,900 – $ 5,400 37% 780,000 – 790,000 Upstream production
2019 Planned maintenance for Suncor operated assets and Syncrude5,6
Upstream Timing Impact on quarter U2 Q4 ~45 mbpd* Syncrude6 Q4 ~20 mbpd Fort Hills Q4 ~10 mbpd
* A portion of the SCO volume impact will be offset by increasing bitumen sales
2019 Sensitivities7 +1$/bbl Brent +$1/bbl NYH 2-1-1 +$0.01 FX +$1/GJ AECO +$1L/H Diff +$1L/L Diff (US$) (US$) (US$/C$) (C$) (US$) (US$)
FFO (C$ millions) ~240 ~150 ~(205) ~(240) ~(25) ~(20 – 40)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 26 High quality mining, in situ and upgrading portfolio1
*All values net to Suncor In Situ Mining Firebag Base Plant 203,000 bpd capacity 350,000 bpd capacity Suncor WI 100% Suncor WI 100% 2,553 mmbbls 2P reserves1 1,418 mmbbls 2P reserves1
MacKay River Syncrude 38,000 bpd capacity Syncrude operated Suncor WI 100% 205,600 bpd coking capacity 508 mmbbls 2P reserves1 Suncor WI 58.74% 1,272 mmbbls 2P reserves1
Future opportunities Fort Hills Lewis (SU WI 100%) Suncor operated Meadow Creek (SU WI 75%) 105,000 bpd capacity Suncor WI 54.11% 1,438 mmbbls 2P reserves1 First oil achieved in January 2018
1 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 27 In Situ Replication1 – Longer term organic growth
Targeting less than $50 WTI (USD) cost of capital breakeven1
Planned phases of 40 mbpd next ~10 generation in situ facilities (replication)
Phases submitted for regulatory approval 3 7 2 approved and 5 pending approval
2024 Potential first oil from first phase
Months expected between first oil 12 to 15 from successive phases Replication facilities approved by the regulator
Replication facility application submitted
360+ mbpd production growth plans2
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 28 Canada’s largest Refining & Marketing business
Edmonton refinery Sarnia refinery 142,000 bpd capacity1 85,000 bpd capacity1 100% oil sands feedstock2 ~80% oil sands feedstock2
Commerce City refinery Montreal refinery 98,000 bpd capacity1 137,000 bpd capacity1 ~20% oil sands feedstock2 ~30% oil sands feedstock2
Marketing Other Over 500,000 bpd in product sales 4 wind farms4 (111 MW) ~1750 North American retail sites St. Clair Ethanol plant (400 ML/yr) (~50% Suncor owned). 51% interest in Parachem Petro-Canada remained as the brand Global sulphur and petroleum coke with largest urban share of market in marketing Canada for 20183 300+ wholesale sites
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 29 Refining & Marketing – Demonstrating cash flow resilience
1 R&M funds from operations WTI – WCS ($US/bbl) Refinery utilization vs. US average Suncor Capturing the value of widening differentials FFO ($C billions) Percent of refining capacity US Average2 Full turnaround 5 26.30 30 25.50 100% at the Edmonton 21.05 19.40 refinery Q2 2018
20 4 13.50 13.85 11.95 3.8 10
3 3.2
2.9 2.8 0 90% 2.7 2.6 2 2.3
-10
1 US$/Cdn$ FX > $0.90 -20 (2012 – 2014)
0 -30 80% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3 2019 YTD
R&M GM3 vs. custom 5-2-2-1 GM3 benchmark Realized GM3/bbl vs. NYH 2-1-1 benchmark See the Downstream supplemental information deck for more details4 All Suncor refineries Q3 2019
28.30 28.35 26.90
20.45
NYH 2-1-1 NYH C$ 2-1-1 US$
Benchmark Benchmark Crude Product mix Yield/ Realized FIFO impact Realized crack crack differential & location feedstock/ GM (LIFO) 5 GM (FIFO) 5 differential other (C$ millions)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 30 Offshore with >390 million barrels of 2P reserves1
East Coast Canada North Sea
Hibernia ExxonMobil operated Buzzard Suncor working interest 20% CNOOC Petroleum Europe Limited operated 63 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) Suncor working interest 29.89% 57 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI)
Hebron ExxonMobil operated Suncor working interest 21.034% 31.6 mboepd planned net capacity Golden Eagle 147 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) CNOOC Petroleum Europe Limited operated Suncor working interest 26.69% 13 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI)
Terra Nova Suncor Energy operated Suncor working interest 37.675% 32 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) Oda Spirit Energy operated3 Suncor working interest 30% 11 mboepd planned net capacity White Rose 8 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI) Husky Energy operated First oil achieved March 2019 Suncor working interest 27.5%2 54 mmboe 2P reserves1 (Suncor WI)
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 31 E&P – Investing in high value, low risk projects
Recent performance Sanctioned projects1
mboe/d Fenja (Norway)
120 • 17.5% working interest • 6 mbbls/d anticipated net peak production 100 Hebron • First oil expected 2021 80 White Rose 60 Hibernia Buzzard Phase 2 (UK) Terra Nova 40 • 29.89% working interest Golden Eagle • Production anticipated to offset natural declines 20 Buzzard • First oil expected 2021 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 West White Rose Project (ECC4) • ~26% working interest • 20 mbbls/d anticipated net peak production 112 109 99 • First oil expected 2022
$billions Terra Nova Asset Life Extension (ECC4) 2.5 71 Brent ($US/bbl) • 37.675% working interest 52 54 2.0 • Extend asset life by approximately a decade 44 • Expect to produce additional 30 million barrels 1.5 (Suncor WI) FFO2 Free funds flow3 1.0 Future opportunities Capital spend 0.5 • Rosebank-UK (40% Suncor WI) • Near field developments including subsea - 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 tie-backs, field extensions and infill drilling
1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 32 Long life, low decline reserves base
Typical attributes1 of North American oil plays Initial Decline Sustaining Operating Reservoir Recovery Illustrative annual FFO2 profiles3 capital rate costs cost risk factor
Mining High Very low Low Medium Very low Very high
~85% of Suncor’s 2019 production guidance
In Situ Medium Low Low Low Low High
Offshore High Medium Medium Very low Medium Medium ~15% of Suncor’s 2019 production guidance
Tight oil Low Very high High Medium High Low
50 Years
Beneficial attribute Challenging attribute
1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes. 33 Track record of counter-cyclical acquisitions and divestments
Non-core UK offshore 10% Fort Hills WI $100 WTI US$/bbl 1 Total E&P Canada $80 $ 2 37% Syncrude WI Canadian Oil Sands $60 7 Petro - Canada 6 1 5 4 2 3 3 Rosebank $40 30% WI
$20 4 5% Syncrude WI Murphy Oil $40 NYH 2 - 1- 1 US$/bbl 3.31% Fort Hills WI $30 Pioneer retail network 5 $ Total E&P Canada $20 5% Syncrude WI4 Conoco Commerce Valero Commerce City 6 Mocal Energy City refinery refinery $10 17.5% Fenja WI5 Petro - Canada Faroe Petroleum
$0 7 Rosebank 10% WI6 $8 Colorado, Canadian & AECO US$/gj Trinidad & Tobago $6 g as assets $ Canadian gas assets $4 $ $2 Petro - Canada
$0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other divestments: East Tank Farm1, Lubricants2, wind facilities3 Acquisition
$ Divestment
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 34 Notes 35 Advisories
Forward-Looking Statements – This presentation contains certain marketing operations (including credit risks); imprecision of reserves cash operating costs, mining cash operating costs, return on capital “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the United States estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of oil, natural gas employed (ROCE) and last in, first out (LIFO) – are not prescribed by Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and “forward-looking and liquids from Suncor’s properties; expected synergies and the GAAP. All non-GAAP measures presented herein do not have any information” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities ability to sustain reductions in costs; the ability to access external standardized meaning and therefore are unlikely to be comparable to legislation (collectively, “forward-looking statements”), including sources of debt and equity capital; the timing and the costs of well and similar measures presented by other companies. Therefore, these statements about: Suncor’s strategy and business plans; expected pipeline construction; Suncor’s dependence on pipeline capacity and non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a compound annual growth rates, capital expenditures, shareholder other logistical constraints, which may affect the company’s ability to substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with return growth, WTI break-even, balance sheet leverage metrics, Oil distribute products to market; mandatory production curtailments GAAP. All non-GAAP measures are included because management Sands decline rate, cost reductions, and operating and financial being greater or imposed for longer than anticipated; the timely receipt uses the information to analyze business performance, leverage and results; reserves estimates and reserve life indices; expected of regulatory and other approvals; the timing of sanction decisions and liquidity and therefore may be considered useful information by utilization of assets; expectations for dividends, share repurchases, Board of Directors’ approval; the availability and cost of labour, investors. See the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory” section production growth, funds from operations, free funds flow growth, and services, and infrastructure; the satisfaction by third parties of their of the Q3 MD&A. ROCE and the basis for such expectations; anticipated impact of obligations to Suncor; the impact of royalty, tax, environmental and changes in crude oil price and crude oil price differentials; anticipated other laws or regulations or the interpretations of such laws or Funds from operations (previously referred to as cash flow from impact of IMO regulatory changes; potential future free funds flow regulations; applicable political and economic conditions; risks operations) is defined in the Q3 MD&A, for the three and nine months growth projects, including the timing and impact thereof, and free associated with existing and potential future lawsuits and regulatory ended September 30, 2019 is reconciled to the GAAP measure in the funds flow improvement and cash flow upside potential; illustrative actions; improvements in performance of assets; and the timing and Q3 MD&A, for 2012 to 2018 is reconciled to GAAP measures in funds from operations, free funds flow, and discretionary free funds impact of technology development. Suncor’s annual management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A) for flow; target break-even cost of capital; plans around in situ growth; the respective year; annual E&P and R&M funds from operations for cash operating costs targets; statements Suncor’s GHG intensity Although Suncor believes that the expectations represented by such 2012 to 2017 are reconciled to GAAP measures in Suncor’s annual reduction goal; estimated average carbon cost for upstream forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no MD&A for the respective year; Oil Sands operations cash operating production; expectations, targets and potential opportunities with assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Suncor’s costs (previously referred to as Oil Sands cash operating costs) is respect to Syncrude; that the ETFD will provide a twenty or greater Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the third quarter ended defined in the Q3 MD&A, for the year ended December 31, 2018 is year revenue stream to the two Alberta First Nations; nameplate September 30, 2019 and dated October 30, 2019 (the Q3 MD&A), reconciled to the GAAP measure in the 2018 Annual Report, and for capacities; Oil Sands regional synergy opportunities; expectations for Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2018 (the 2018 2013 is reconciled to the GAAP measure in Suncor’s 2013 annual and potential benefits of the cogeneration facility, Suncor/Syncrude Annual Report) and its most recently filed Annual Information MD&A; discretionary free funds flow (previously referred to as interconnecting pipelines, autonomous haul trucks and PASS; Form/Form 40-F and other documents it files from time to time with discretionary free cash flow) is defined in the Q3 MD&A, for 2015 to statements about Suncor’s investments in its lower-carbon technology securities regulatory authorities describe the risks, uncertainties, 2018 is reconciled to the GAAP measure in Suncor’s 2018 annual portfolio and in technologies, including the expected benefits material assumptions and other factors that could influence actual MD&A, and for 2014 is reconciled to the GAAP measure in Suncor’s therefrom; expectations about Fort Hills; capital and production results and such factors are incorporated herein by reference. Copies 2016 annual MD&A; the estimated impact of the LIFO method for the guidance; planned maintenance and the timing thereof; expected of these documents are available without charge from Suncor at 150 three months ended September 30, 2019 is defined and reconciled in peak production and first oil dates for sanctioned E&P projects; 6th Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta T2P 3E3, by calling 1-800-558- the Q3 MD&A; and Fort Hills cash operating costs and Syncrude cash expectations about the Terra Nova Asset Life Extension; goals with 9071, or by email request to [email protected] or by referring to the operating costs are defined and reconciled to the GAAP measures in respect to reliability, safety, cost management and sustainability; and company’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com or EDGAR at the Q3 MD&A. potential future pipelines and market access expectations that are www.sec.gov. Except as required by applicable securities laws, based on Suncor’s current expectations, estimates, projections and Suncor disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or Reserves– Unless noted otherwise, reserves information presented assumptions that were made by Suncor in light of its experience and revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new herein for Suncor is presented as Suncor’s working interest (operating its perception of historical trends. Some of the forward-looking information, future events or otherwise. Suncor’s actual results may and non-operating) before deduction of royalties, and without statements may be identified by words such as “planned”, “estimated”, differ materially from those expressed or implied by its forward-looking including any royalty interests of Suncor, and is at December 31, “target”, “goal”, “illustrative”, “strategy”, “expected”, “focused”, statements, so readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on 2018. For more information on Suncor’s reserves, including definitions “opportunities”, “may”, “will”, “outlook”, “anticipated”, “potential”, them. of proved and probable reserves, Suncor’s interest, location of the “guidance”, “predicts”, “aims”, “proposed”, “seeking” and similar reserves and the product types reasonably expected please see expressions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future Suncor’s corporate guidance includes a planned production range, Suncor’s most recent Annual Information Form/Form 40-F dated performance and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some planned maintenance, capital expenditures and other information, February 28, 2019 available at www.sedar.com and www.sec.gov. that are similar to other oil and gas companies and some that are based on our current expectations, estimates, projections and Reserves data is based upon evaluations conducted by independent unique to Suncor. Users of this information are cautioned that actual assumptions (collectively, the “Factors”), including those outlined in qualified reserves evaluators as defined in NI 51-101. results may differ materially as a result of, among other things, our 2019 Corporate Guidance available on assumptions regarding: commodity prices; timing of commissioning www.suncor.com/guidance, which Factors are incorporated herein by BOE (Barrels of oil equivalent) – Certain natural gas volumes have and start-up, cost, characteristics, and capacity of capital projects; reference. Suncor includes forward-looking statements to assist been converted to barrels of oil on the basis of six thousand cubic feet assumptions contained in or relevant to Suncor’s 2019 Corporate readers in understanding the company’s future plans and expectations to one boe. This industry convention is not indicative of relative market Guidance; fluctuations in foreign exchange and interest rates; product and the use of such information for other purposes may not be values, and thus may be misleading. supply and demand; market competition; future production rates; appropriate. assets and facilities not performing as anticipated; expected debottlenecks, cost reductions and margin improvements not being Non-GAAP Measures – Certain financial measures in this achieved to the extent anticipated; dividends declared and share presentation – namely funds from operations, free funds flow, Oil repurchases below expected levels; the sufficiency of budgeted Sands operations cash operating costs, discretionary free funds flow, capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; risks inherent in Syncrude cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs, In Situ 36 Slide Notes
Slide 2------capital expenditures plus well pad spend (inclusive of associated interest before royalties. See Reserves in the Advisories. (1) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. capitalized interest) based on the company’s current business (2) Reflects Oil Sands’ anticipated compounded annual decrease in See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from plans. Assumes production, sustaining capital and business production for 2019-2023 and is calculated on a production- operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating environment at the midpoint of 2019 guidance released on weighted basis using planned production for those years, and activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. FFO October 30, 2019 and a $0.42/share dividend for each quarter in assumes no economic capital spend, no acquisitions and no indicated for 2019 to 2023 is illustrative and is not intended to be 2019. All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of divestments during that period. a forecast of Suncor’s FFO. It is indicative of FFO based on the Directors. Actual results may differ materially. See Forward- (3) Refers to Oil Sands operations sustaining capital per barrel, 2019 pricing guidance released on October 30, 2019 and Looking Statements in the Advisories. which is calculated by dividing Oil Sands operations sustaining Suncor’s business plan. Actual results may differ materially. See Slide 3------capital by Oil Sands operations production, plus Oil Sands Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (1) As at December 31, 2018 and assumes that approximately 7.58 operations cash operating costs per barrel, all as indicated in the (2) Refers to Trailing Twelve Month average value as at September billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of proved and probable Q3 MD&A. Oil Sands operations cash operating costs is a non- 30, 2019 and based on an average production rate of 790 mbpd reserves (2P) are produced at a rate of 732.0 mboe/d, Suncor’s GAAP financial measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the and the average market metrics: US$57.51 WTI, 0.76 C$/US$, average daily production rate in 2018. Reserves are working Advisories. US$20.01 NYH 2-1-1 crack spread. interest before royalties. See Reserves in the Advisories. (4) Refers to estimated average WTI crude oil price for 2019 in US (3) The classification of the company’s capital expenditures has been (2) Nameplate capacities as at September 30, 2019. Nameplate dollars required for funds from operations for 2019 to equal updated to “‘asset sustainment and maintenance’’ and ‘‘economic capacities may not be reflective of actual utilization rates. See estimated 2019 sustaining capital expenditures inclusive of investment’’ to better reflect the types of capital investments Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. associated capitalized interest and dividends. Sustaining capital being made by the company. Sustaining capital represents asset (3) 1527 retail sites are operated under the Petro-Canada brand. represents anticipated asset sustainment and maintenance sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures (inclusive of Slide 4------capital expenditures plus well pad spend (inclusive of associated associated capitalized interest), which have been restated for (1) Free funds flow, previously referred to as free cash flow, is capitalized interest) based on the company’s current business October 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018 to reflect the change in calculated by taking funds from operations (FFO) and subtracting plans. Assumes production, sustaining capital and business classification. For a description of asset sustainment and capital expenditures, including capitalized interest. Free funds environment at the midpoint of 2019 guidance released on maintenance capital expenditures see the Capital Investment flow is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the October 30, 2019 and a $0.42/share dividend for each quarter in Update section of the Q3 MD&A. Advisories. 2019. All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of (4) Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is calculated for the years (2) Based on the company’s current business plans and business Directors. Actual results may differ materially. See Forward- 2018 to 2023 using Suncor’s business plan. Actual results may environment expectations, which are subject to change. Actual Looking Statements in the Advisories. vary materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the results may differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in (5) Full guidance is available at suncor.com/guidance. See Forward- Advisories. the Advisories. Looking Statements in the Advisories. (5) Based on the weighted average number of shares outstanding in (3) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. (6) Conversion capacity as at September 30, 2019 and reflects each year for 2014 to 2018 and the weighted average number of See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from Suncor’s upgrading and refining capacity. Conversion capacity shares outstanding for the nine months ending September 30, operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating may not be reflective of actual utilization rates. See Forward- 2019 for 2019. 2019 dividend amount assumes $0.42/share for activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. Looking Statements in the Advisories. each quarter. All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board (4) Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is calculated for the years (7) Nameplate capacities as at September 30, 2019. Nameplate of Directors. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. 2018 to 2023 using Suncor’s business plan. Actual results may capacities may not be reflective of actual utilization rates. See (6) Figure does not include the $43 million worth of shares vary materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. repurchased in the twelve months ended December 31, 2015 Advisories. (8) Free funds flow and discretionary free funds flow are non-GAAP ($0.03/share repurchased in 2015). (5) Anticipated production growth per share is calculated using the measures. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. (7) 2019 buyback per share assumes the repurchase of midpoint of 2019 guidance as well as Suncor’s production growth (9) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. approximately $2.3 billion in 2019. Suncor’s share repurchases business plan for 2020. Actual results may vary materially. See See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from are opportunistic. The actual number of shares that will be Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating repurchased and the timing of any such purchases will be (6) Includes possible future opportunities currently being evaluated activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. determined by Suncor and will depend on market conditions, and which may be subject to Board of Directors’, counterparty (10) Metrics include the impact for IFRS 16 which came into effect on funds flow and other factors, and could differ materially from this and regulatory approval. Assumes the completion of incremental January 1, 2019. assumption. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. pipeline capacity out of the Alberta market. There can be no (11) All figures are in billions of CAD. U.S dollar facilities converted at (8) All figures are in billions of CAD. U.S dollar facilities converted at assurance these opportunities will be pursued or if pursued that a USD/CAD rate of $0.76, the exchange rate as at September a USD/CAD rate of $0.76, the exchange rate as at September they will result in the expected benefits. See Forward-Looking 30, 2019. 30, 2019. Statements in the Advisories. (9) Refers to estimated average WTI crude oil price for 2019 in US Slide 5------continued … dollars required for funds from operations for 2019 to equal (1) As at December 31, 2018 and assumes that approximately 7.19 estimated 2019 sustaining capital expenditures inclusive of billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of proved and probable associated capitalized interest and dividends. Sustaining capital reserves (2P) are produced at a rate of 628.6 mboe/d, Oil Sands’ represents anticipated asset sustainment and maintenance average daily production rate in 2018. Reserves are working 37 Slide Notes (continued)
Slide 7------Annual emissions reduction estimate of 2.5MT represents See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. (1) Based on current business plans, which are subject to change. combined project and provincial reductions. Actual results may (3) WTI pricing for 2015-2018 are actual averages for each See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. differ materially. See Forward-looking Statements in the respective year. The WTI pricing for 2019 is based on Corporate (2) Baseline funds from operations (FFO) has been derived from Advisories. Guidance issued October 30, 2019. midpoint of 2019 guidance and the associated business (4) Represents greenhouse gas emissions from 550,000 passenger (4) The NYH 2-1-1 benchmark numbers for 2015-2018 are actual environment. Sensitivities are based on changing a single factor vehicles driven for one year, calculated using the United States averages for each respective year. The 2019 price is based on by its indicated range while holding the rest constant. FFO is a Environmental Protection Agency’s greenhouse gas equivalencies Corporate Guidance issued October 30, 2019. non-GAAP financial measure and is calculated as cash flow calculator: https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas- (5) Illustrative FFO is not intended to be a forecast of Suncor’s FFO. provided by operating activities excluding changes in non-cash equivalencies-calculator It is indicative of FFO based on the midpoint of 2019 guidance working capital. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. (5) 15% of vehicles in Alberta equivalent calculated using the publicly released on October 30, 2019. Also based on continued industry (3) Based on 2018 full year production and planned volumes for accessible Alberta Vehicle Geographical Statistics available at: growth fundamentals. Actual results may differ materially. See 2020. Actual production may vary materially. See Forward- https://www.alberta.ca/transportation.aspx Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Looking Statements in the Advisories. Slide 10------(6) 2019 sustaining capital represents anticipated asset sustainment (4) Dividends and future buybacks (NCIBs) are at the discretion of (1) Refers to Oil Sands operations cash operating costs per barrel, and estimated maintenance capital expenditures (inclusive of Suncor’s Board of Directors. NCIBs are subject to maximum limits which is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the associated capitalized interest) based on the company’s current permitted by law and stock exchange rules. See Forward-Looking Advisories. business plans. Actual sustaining capital expenditures and Statements in the Advisories. (2) Refers to Mining cash operating costs per barrel, which is a non- associated capitalized interest along with the company’s business (5) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure GAAP measure, and is calculated by taking the sum of OS&G plans may differ materially from those anticipated and are subject and is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities expenses (a GAAP measure) for Oil Sands, subtracting costs that to Board of Directors’ approval. For a description of asset excluding changes in non-cash working capital. See Non-GAAP are not directly attributed to Oil Sands operations Mining bitumen sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures see the Measures in the Advisories. production, and dividing the resulting figure by Oil Sands Capital Investment Update section of the Q3 MD&A. See (6) Sustaining capital represents anticipated asset sustainment and operations Mining bitumen production, as indicated for the Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. maintenance capital expenditures (inclusive of associated applicable year in the Supplemental Financial and Operating (7) Assumes 2019 quarterly dividend of $0.42/share. All dividends capitalized interest) based on the company’s current business Information in the 2018 Annual Report and Suncor’s Annual are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of Directors. See Forward- plans. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Report for the year ended December 31, 2018 (the 2018 Annual Looking Statements in the Advisories. Slide 8------Report). See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Slide 12------(1) Free funds flow, previously referred to as free cash flow, is (3) Refers to In situ cash operating costs per barrel, which is a non- (1) Annualized dividend increases for 17 years assumes $0.42/share calculated by taking funds from operations (FFO) and subtracting GAAP measure, and is calculated by taking the sum of OS&G dividend for each quarter in 2019. All dividends are at the capital expenditures, including capitalized interest. Free funds flow expenses (a GAAP measure) for Oil Sands, subtracting costs that discretion of Suncor’s Board of Directors. See Forward-Looking is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the are not directly attributed to Oil Sands operations In Situ bitumen Statements in the Advisories. Advisories. production, and dividing the resulting figure by Oil Sands (2) 2019 buyback per share assumes $2.3 billion of share (2) Based on possible future opportunities, including examples shown operations In situ bitumen production, as indicated for the repurchases in 2019. Suncor’s share repurchases are on the slide, currently being evaluated and which may be subject applicable year in the Supplemental Financial and Operating opportunistic. The actual number of shares that will be to Board of Directors’, counterparty and regulatory approval. Information in the 2018 Annual Report. See Non-GAAP Measures repurchased and the timing of any such purchases will be There can be no assurance these opportunities will be pursued or in the Advisories. determined by Suncor and will depend on market conditions, if pursued that they will result in the expected benefits. See (4) Refers to Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills funds flow and other factors, and could differ materially from this Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. cash operating costs and Syncrude cash operating costs, which assumption. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (3) Based on company’s current business plans and the current are non-GAAP measures. See Non-GAAP Measures in the (3) Refers to approximately $5 billion of shares repurchased under business environment, which are subject to change. Actual results Advisories. Targets based on current business plans and Suncor’s normal course issuer bid (NCIB) programs from May 2, may differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the business environment expectations. Actual results may differ 2017 to December 31, 2018. Advisories. materially from these targets. See Forward-Looking Statements in (4) Refers to Suncor’s announced share repurchase program of $2.0 (4) Refers to Autonomous Haulage Systems (AHS). the Advisories. billion, effective March 1, 2019. Suncor’s share repurchases are (5) Refers to Permanent Aquatic Storage Structure (PASS). Slide 11------opportunistic. The actual number of shares that will be Slide 9------(1) Discretionary free funds flow, previously referred to as repurchased and the timing of any such purchases will be (1) Based on company’s current business plans and the current discretionary free cash flow, is calculated by taking funds from determined by Suncor and will depend on market conditions, business environment, which are subject to change. Actual results operations (FFO) and subtracting sustaining capital, inclusive of funds flow and other factors, and could differ materially from this may differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the associated capitalized interest, and dividends. Discretionary free amount. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Advisories. funds flow is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in (2) Internal rate of return (IRR) is based on current business plans, the Advisories. which are subject to change. Actual results may differ materially. (2) Funds from operations (FFO) is defined as cash flow provided by continued … See Forward-looking Statements in the Advisories. operating activities excluding changes in non-cash working (3) MT refers to million tonnes and GHG refers to greenhouse gas. capital. Funds from operations is a non-GAAP financial measure. 38 Slide Notes (continued)
Slide 12 continued------Slide 15------Slide 19------(5) Based on the weighted average number of shares outstanding in (1) Return on capital employed (ROCE) is a non-GAAP financial (1) Based on Suncor’s forecast of market access capacity available to each year for 2002 to 2018 and the weighted average number of measure and is calculated as earnings before interest and income industry and Suncor’s planned production profile. See Forward- shares outstanding for the nine months ending September 30, 2019 taxes divided by the average of total assets less the average of Looking Statements in the Advisories. for 2019. 2019 dividend metrics assume $0.42/share for each current liabilities at the beginning and end of each respective year. (2) Approximate total pipeline capacities based on publically sourced quarter. All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. ROCE as calculated by information available at www.capp.ca and www.enbridge.com Directors. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Suncor may not be comparable to similar measures presented by (3) Proposed future pipeline. There can be no assurance this pipeline (6) Figure does not include the $43 million worth of shares repurchased other companies. The methodology used to calculate ROCE in this will be built with the capacity indicated or at all. See Forward- in the twelve months ended December 31, 2015 ($0.03/share investor presentation is taken from Factset and differs from the Looking Statements in the Advisories. repurchased in 2015). methodology used in the company’s Q3 MD&A for the purposes of Slide 20------(7) Based on the company’s current business plans, which are subject comparability across the peer group. Source of information: Factset. (1) Expected opex savings are upon full implementation and are based to change. All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’s Board of (2) ROCE is calculated on a trailing twelve basis as at September 30, on current plans and business environment expectations, which are Directors. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. 2019. subject to change. See Forward-Looking Statements in the (8) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure and (3) Oil Sands peers in alphabetical order: Canadian Natural Resources Advisories. is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities excluding Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Husky Energy Inc., Imperial Oil Limited, (2) The flocculant is a chemical used to help settle out solids. The changes in non-cash working capital. See Non-GAAP Measures in MEG Energy Corp. Source of information: Factset. polymer flocculant attaches to clay particles in the mature fine the Advisories. (4) Supermajor peers in alphabetical order: BP p.l.c., Chevron tailings (MFT) and causes them to be bound together, allowing the Slide 13------Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total clay to be separated from the water. (1) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. See SA. Source of information: Factset. (3) Expected savings are upon full implementation and are based on Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from operations is (5) Based on current business plan and business environment current plans and business environment considerations, which are calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities excluding expectations, which are subject to change. Expected benefits may subject to change. Actual results may differ materially. See Forward- changes in non-cash working capital. not be achieved. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Looking Statements in the Advisories (2) Metrics include the impact for IFRS 16 which came into effect on Slide 16------Slide 21------, January 1 2019. See “Indicators” in the Financial Condition and (1) Refers to nameplate capacity as at September 30, 2019. Nameplate (1) Excludes the impact of operations being shut-in due to forest fires in Liquidity section of the Q3 MD&A. capacities may not be reflective of actual utilization rates. See the Fort McMurray region during the second quarter of 2016. (3) All figures are in billions of CAD. U.S dollar facilities converted at a Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (2) Targets based on current business plans and business environment USD/CAD rate of $0.76, the exchange rate at September 30, 2019. (2) Indicates processing capabilities. expectations. Actual results may differ materially from these targets. Slide 14------(3) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure and See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (1) Funds from operations is a non-GAAP financial measure. See Non- is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities excluding (3) Refers to Syncrude cash operating costs, which is a non-GAAP GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from operations (or the changes in non-cash working capital. Sensitivities are based on measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. most similar non-GAAP measure as used by the respective peer) is changing a single factor by its indicated range while holding the rest (4) Represents current estimate of cost to build pipeline. Actual results calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities excluding constant. Anticipated FFO impact is based on company’s current may differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the changes in non-cash working capital. Non-GAAP measures do not business plans and the current business environment, which are Advisories. have any standardized meaning and therefore are unlikely to be subject to change. Actual results may differ materially. See Non- Slide 22 ------comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, GAAP Measures and Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (1) See Suncor’s 2019 Report on Sustainability for further details on the including Suncor’s own funds from operations. Therefore, these non- (4) Refers to Light-Heavy differential and reflects the difference between methodologies used to calculate GHG intensity and our GHG goal. GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a WTI and WCS crude pricing. (2) Graphic is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect any substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with (5) Reflects the difference between WTI and Syncrude sweet premium variables on an absolute basis. Relative GHG reductions reflect a GAAP. Figures are converted to US dollars at the average exchange (SSP) crude pricing. “rock to rack” lifecycle basis. rate for each period. Slide 17------(3) NFT refers to naphthenic froth treatment, SAGD refers to steam (2) Barrels refers to total production from all upstream assets by each (1) IMO refers to International Maritime Organization. assisted gravity drainage, and PFT refers to paraffinic froth company for the year. (2) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. See treatment. (3) Oil Sands peers in alphabetical order: Canadian Natural Resources Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from operations is (4) Includes spend on digital technologies. Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Husky Energy Inc., Imperial Oil Limited, calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities excluding (5) ETFD refers to East Tank Farm Development. MEG Energy Corp. MEG Energy Corp. has been excluded from changes in non-cash working capital. Actual impact may vary (6) Refers to the sale of a combined 49% interest in the East Tank Farm shareholder returns. Supermajors peers in alphabetical order: BP materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Development to the Fort McKay First Nation and Mikisew Cree First plc., Chevron Corporation, ExxonMobil Corporation, Royal Dutch (3) Bunker fuel refers to traditional heavy high sulphur bunker fuel. Nation in November 2017. Shell plc., Total S.A. Source of information: Factset. (4) Refers to Light-Heavy differential and reflects the difference between (4) Dividend yield is calculated as annual dividend per share divided by WTI and WCS crude pricing in US dollars. continued … average share price for the applicable year. Slide 18------(5) Buyback yield is calculated as annual NCIB spend per share divided (1) Represents possible future opportunities currently being evaluated. by average share price for the applicable year. There can be no assurance these opportunities will be pursued. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. 39 Slide Notes (continued)
Slide 23 ------target. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. as cash flow from operations) for E&P and subtracting E&P (1) MFT refers to mature fine tailings, which occur in the middle layer (2) Gross project volume including CNOOC International's 25% capital and exploration expenditures, excluding capitalized of a tailings pond after a period of settlement. interest in Meadow Creek. interest, all as indicated for the applicable year in Suncor’s (2) The flocculant is a chemical used to help settle out solids. The (3) Refers to Other Six Lease Operators (OSLO). respective Annual Reports. Management uses free funds flow to polymer flocculant attaches to clay particles in the mature fine Slide 28------measure financial performance and liquidity. Free funds flow is a tailings (MFT) and causes them to be bound together, allowing (1) Nameplate capacity as at September 30, 2019. Nameplate non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. the clay to be separated from the water. capacity may not be reflective of actual utilization rates. See (4) Refers to East Coast Canada (ECC). (3) The coagulant is a chemical used to improve water quality. It Forward-looking Statements in the Advisories. Slide 32------causes suspended solids such as clay, residual bitumen and (2) Percentages indicate processing capabilities. (1) Attributes are generalizations based on Suncor’s analysis of its other naturally occurring constituents in tailings to settle out of the (3) Based on Kent survey results for year-end 2018. 1527 of the own projects and industry data. fluid state. 1766 retail sites are operated under the Petro-Canada brand. (2) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. (4) Actual results may differ materially. See Forward-looking (4) Includes working interests in four operating wind farms with gross See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from Statements in the Advisories. installed capacity of 111 MW . operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating Slide 25------Slide 29------activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. (1) Full guidance is available at suncor.com/guidance. See Forward- (1) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure (3) Annual FFO profiles are based on representative project Looking Statements in the Advisories. and is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities economics (development capital, operating and sustaining costs) (2) Capital expenditures exclude capitalized interest of excluding changes in non-cash working capital. See Non-GAAP using consistent assumptions for future oil prices (including approximately $150 million. Measures in the Advisories. adjustments for quality, transportation and marketing costs), tax (3) Balance of capital expenditures represents Asset Sustainment (2) Source: US Energy Information Administration and royalty rates. Actual FFO may differ materially. See Forward- and Maintenance capital expenditures. For a description of asset (3) Gross Margin (GM) is defined as the difference between the total Looking Statements in the Advisories. sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures see the value of petroleum products produced at a refinery less the cost Slide 33------Capital Investment Update section of the Q3 MD&A. of the feedstock. GM per barrel is calculated by dividing GM by (1) Refers to the sale of a combined 49% interest in the East Tank (4) At the time of publication, production in Libya continues to be total throughput. Farm development to the Fort McKay First Nation and the affected by political unrest and therefore no forward looking (4) Visit www.suncor.com/investor-centre/presentations-and-key- Mikisew Cree First Nation in November 2017. production for Libya is factored into the Exploration and dates (2) Refers to sale of Suncor lubricants business to a subsidiary of Production and Suncor Total Production guidance. Production (5) Last in, first out (LIFO) refers to the non-GAAP method of HollyFrontier Corporation, which closed on February 1, 2017. ranges for Oil Sands operations, Fort Hills, Syncrude and inventory accounting, while Suncor reports on a first in, first out (3) Refers to the sale of Suncor’s interest in the Cedar Point wind Exploration and Production are not intended to add to equal (FIFO) basis consistent with IFRS accounting policy. See Non- facility, which closed on January 24, 2017 and sale of Suncor’s Suncor total production. GAAP Measures in the Advisories. interest in the Ripley wind facility, which closed on July 10, 2017. (5) Subject to change. Estimated impacts have been factored into Slide 30------(4) Refers to the acquisition of a 5% interest in Syncrude from Mocal annual guidance. (1) Reserves are working interest before royalties. See Reserves in Energy, which closed in the first quarter of 2018. (6) Syncrude is operated by Syncrude Canada Limited. the Advisories. The estimates of reserves for individual properties (5) Refers to the acquisition of a 17.5% interest in the Fenja (7) Baseline funds from operations (FFO) has been derived from provided herein may not reflect the same confidence level as Development from Faroe Petroleum, which closed in the second midpoint of 2019 guidance and the associated business estimates of reserves for all properties due to the effects of quarter of 2018. environment. Sensitivities are based on changing a single factor aggregation. Suncor’s 2P Reserves (gross) for total Canada, (6) Refers to the acquisition of a 10% interest in Rosebank, which by its indicated range while holding the rest constant. FFO is a North Sea UK and Norway North Sea, respectively, are 7,485 closed in the second quarter of 2018. non-GAAP financial measure and is calculated as cash flow mmboe, 71 mmboe and 23 mmboe as at Dec. 31, 2018. Sum of provided by operating activities excluding changes in non-cash displayed 2P reserves is 374 mmboe; remaining 2P reserves is working capital. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. displayed on slide 31 and made of sanctioned projects. Slide 26------(2) Suncor’s 27.5% working interest is for the White Rose base (1) Reserves are working interest before royalties. See Reserves in project. Suncor’s working interest in the White Rose growth lands the Advisories. The estimates of reserves for individual properties is 26.125%. provided herein may not reflect the same confidence level as (3) Photo source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. estimates of reserves for all properties due to the effects of Slide 31------aggregation. Suncor’s total 2P Reserves (gross) for Canada are (1) Actual peak production and first oil dates may vary from those 7,485 mmboe as at Dec. 31, 2018. expected. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Slide 27------(2) Funds from operations (FFO) is a non-GAAP financial measure. (1) Based on current business plans and business environment See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. Funds from expectations including completion of incremental pipeline capacity operations is calculated as cash flow provided by operating out of the Alberta market. Includes projects subject to Board of activities excluding changes in non-cash working capital. Directors’, counterparty and regulatory approval. Actual results (3) Free funds flow, previously referred to as free cash flow, is and breakeven cost of capital may differ materially from this calculated by taking funds from operations (previously referred to Investor Relations contacts
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