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(Vision 2040) 5.1 Population Growth and Control

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(Vision 2040) 5.1 Population Growth and Control Project for Urban Transport Master Plan in Kinshasa City / PDTK Final Report: Volume 1 Urban Transport Master Plan in Kinshasa City CHAPTER 5 Vision for Sustainable Spatial Development (Vision 2040) 5.1 Population Growth and Control 5.1.1 Prospect of Population Growth of Kinshasa City The Study refers to the result of the future population growth analysis by the UN (United Nations) Population Division for the estimation of future population (ref. 5.2.4 and 5.2.5). The index of UN statistics reflects the natural population growth ratio and social population growth ratio; It calculates the population of all of DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo) between 1950 and 2100, prepares three variants (Low, Medium and High) for the estimation for the whole country of DRC. The Study takes these indexes as the natural increase population growth ratio for Kinshasa City. Then, the Study examined two scenarios for the assumption of social increase of population in Kinshasa City. As described in 5.2.4, the current annual social population growth ratio of Kinshasa City is considered at about 1%/year, which corresponds to the difference between the annual population growth ratio of the entire DRC and Kinshasa City. Currently, this increasing tendency is considered to be caused by the following issues. Economical differences between Kinshasa City and local cities; Difference of job opportunity and educational opportunity; and Unstable political situation and internally displaced persons. Considering the above mentioned causes of migration, and the fact that the urbanized area of Kinshasa City has expanded and is sprawled, it is doubtful that this trend of migration into Kinshasa City would continue for a long time. On the other hand, from the viewpoint of regional and national development, the government of DRC might need to consider decentralization of the overcrowded capital, relocating commercial and industrial functions to other regions of the country. According to these views, the Study examines two scenarios of population increase of Kinshasa City. One is the constant annual population increase rate of 1.0% from 2017 to 2040 (Scenario A), and the other is gradually decreasing the population increase rate of 1.0% to 0.0% from 2017 to 2040 (Scenario B). Applying these population growth ratios to the current population of Kinshasa City, the Study then evaluates the result. 5-1 Project for Urban Transport Master Plan in Kinshasa City / PDTK Final Report: Volume 1 Urban Transport Master Plan in Kinshasa City Table 5.1.1 Constant Social Population Growth Ratio between 2015-2040, 1.0% Annually Period SOSAK* UN UN UN (Low fertility variant + (Medium fertility variant + (High fertility variant + social growth 1%) social growth 1%) social growth 1%) Whole Socia Total Whole Social Total Whole Social Total DRC l DRC DRC 2013-15 3.00 3.17 1.00 4.17 3.17 1.00 4.17 3.17 1.00 4.17 2015-20 3.00 2.94 1.00 3.94 3.09 1.00 4.09 3.24 1.00 4.24 2020-25 3.00 2.73 1.00 3.73 2.96 1.00 3.96 3.18 1.00 4.18 2025-30 3.00 2.53 1.00 3.53 2.81 1.00 3.81 3.08 1.00 4.08 2030-35 3.00 2.39 1.00 3.39 2.66 1.00 3.66 2.92 1.00 3.92 2035-40 3.00 2.22 1.00 3.22 2.51 1.00 3.51 2.78 1.00 3.78 2040-45 3.00 2.02 1.00 3.02 2.34 1.00 3.34 2.65 1.00 3.65 Source: The Study Team *: Strategic Orientation Scheme for the Kinshasa Metropolitan Area Table 5.1.2 Case of Gradual Decrease of Social Population Growth Ration between 2015-2040 (1.0% Annually in 2015 to 0.0% in 2035) Period SOSAK UN UN UN (Low fertility variant + (Medium fertility variant + (High fertility variant + social social growth 1-> 0%) social growth 1 -> 0%) growth 1 -> 0%) Whole Social Total Whole Social Total Whole Social Total DRC DRC DRC 2013-15 3.00 3.17 1.00 4.17 3.17 1.00 4.17 3.17 1.00 4.17 2015-20 3.00 2.94 1.00~0.75 3.94~3.74 3.09 1.00~0.75 4.09~3.89 3.24 1.00~0.75 4.24~4.04 2020-25 3.00 2.73 0.75~0.50 3.48~3.28 2.96 0.75~0.50 3.71~3.51 3.18 0.75~0.50 3.93~3.73 2025-30 3.00 2.53 0.50~0.25 3.03~2.83 2.81 0.50~0.25 3.31~3.11 3.08 0.50~0.25 3.58~3.38 2030-35 3.00 2.39 0.25~0.00 2.64~2.44 2.66 0.25~0.00 2.91~2.71 2.92 0.25~0.00 3.17~2.97 2035-40 3.00 2.22 0.00 2.22 2.51 0.00 2.51 2.78 0.00 2.78 2040-45 3.00 2.02 0.00 2.02 2.34 0.00 2.34 2.65 0.00 2.65 Source: The Study Team 5.1.2 Verification of Population Growth Result of Different Population Increase The following two tables show the estimated population of the Kinshasa City corresponding to different scenarios. Table 5.1.3 Estimated Population Growth Ration of Kinshasa City (Scenario A) Year SOSAK SOSAK UN UN UN (Based on INS* (Based on (Low fertility (Medium fertility (High fertility benchmark in Consultant’s variant) + social variant) + social variant) + social 2015) benchmark in growth 1%) growth 1%) growth 1%) 2015) 2013 10,558,000 8,200,000 - - - 2015 11,575,000 8,826,000 11,575,000 11,575,000 11,575,000 2017** - - 12,505,000 12,505,000 12,505,000 2020 13,025,000 10,233,000 14,042,000 14,103,000 14,164,000 2025 15,133,000 11,862,000 16,864,000 17,125,000 17,382,000 2030 17,582,000 13,751,000 20,058,000 20,646,000 21,230,000 2035 N/A N/A 23,696,000 24,711,000 25,730,000 2040 N/A N/A 27,765,000 29,364,000 30,975,000 Source: The Study Team *: National Statistical Institute **: Estimated by the Study Team 5-2 Project for Urban Transport Master Plan in Kinshasa City / PDTK Final Report: Volume 1 Urban Transport Master Plan in Kinshasa City Table 5.1.4 Estimated Population Growth Ratio of Kinshasa City (Scenario B) Year SOSAK SOSAK UN (Low fertility UN (Medium UN (High fertility (Based on INS (Based on variant) + fertility variant) + variant) + benchmark in Consultant’s decreasing social decreasing social decreasing social 2015) benchmark in growth 1%→0%) growth 1%→0%) growth 1%→0%) 2015) 2013 10,558,000 8,200,000 - - - 2015 11,575,000 8,826,000 11,575,000 11,575,000 11,575,000 2017* - - 12,505,000 12,505,000 12,505,000 2020 13,025,000 10,233,000 13,981,000 14,042,000 14,103,000 2025 15,133,000 11,862,000 16,509,000 16,766,000 17,019,000 2030 17,582,000 13,751,000 19,074,000 19,636,000 20,293,000 2035 N/A N/A 21,623,000 22,554,000 23,489,000 2040 N/A N/A 24,132,000 25,530,000 26,941,000 Source: The Study Team Note*: Estimated by the Study Team As the result of this calculation, the population of Kinshasa City will be 20 to 21 million in the year 2030, and 27 to 31 million in 2040 for Scenario A (constant migration ratio); this is 1.5 times of the estimation of SOSAK for 2030. Even taking the decreasing population increase (Scenario B), the city population will reach 19 to 20 million in 2030 and 24 to 27 million in 2040. Considering the current urban situation of Kinshasa City, it is obvious that the concentration of the population into Kinshasa City will provoke difficulties in the living, social and natural environments of the city. Geographically, the available land of Kinshasa City is limited to a narrow space along the Congo River, and cultivation and urbanization towards the mountain side in the south might not be easy. Also, more concentration is expected to lead to more traffic congestion in the limited arterial roads. Before facing these difficulties, it is necessary to take measures to avoid and relieve the overconcentration into Kinshasa City. For this purpose, the government needs to consider other development strategies and scenarios. The Study supposes that the government will take action against the overconcentration into Kinshasa City before the situation worsens, and the trend of migration will be autonomously balanced. The Study will take Scenario B (decreasing population increase) for the estimation, on the assumption that proper control and development strategy at the national level will be implemented in the future. 5-3 Project for Urban Transport Master Plan in Kinshasa City / PDTK Final Report: Volume 1 Urban Transport Master Plan in Kinshasa City Source: The Study Team Figure 5.1.1 Estimated Annual Rate of Population Change of Kinshasa City (Left) Figure 5.1.2 Estimated Population number of of Kinshasa City (Right) 5.1.3 Estimation of Future Population of Communes (1) Process of Estimation Corresponding to the estimated population of Kinshasa City, the Study calculates the population of each commune in the future.
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