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Programa Nuclear Brasileiro Proposta De Programa Nacional De Fusão PROGRAMA NUCLEAR BRASILEIRO PROPOSTA DE PROGRAMA NACIONAL DE FUSÃO NUCLEAR Maio de 2021 Este documento propõe um Programa Nacional de Fusão Nuclear e foi elaborado por iniciativa da Diretoria de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento da CNEN, por meio de sua Coordenação-Geral de Ciência e Tecnologia Nucleares, em uma série de reuniões conduzidas em 2020 e 2021. Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear - CNEN Paulo Roberto Pertusi, Presidente da CNEN Diretoria de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento - DPD/CNEN Madison Coelho de Almeida, Diretor de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Coordenação-Geral de Ciência e Tecnologia Nucleares - CGTN/CNEN Orlando João Agostinho Gonçalves Filho, Coordenador Geral Autores Gustavo Paganini Canal, IFUSP Gerson Otto Ludwig, CNEN/INPE Ricardo Magnus Osório Galvão, IFUSP Co-autores Madison Coelho de Almeida, DPD/CNEN Orlando João Agostinho Gonçalves Filho, CGTN/CNEN José Helder Facundo Severo, IFUSP Maria Célia Ramos de Andrade, COPDT-INPE Júlio Guimarães Ferreira, COPDT-INPE Conteúdo 1 Introdução 1 2 A geração de energia através da fusão nuclear 2 2.1 A necessidade de encontrarmos novas fontes de energia .............................. 2 2.2 A produção de energia através da fusão de núcleos leves ............................. 3 2.3 Fusão nuclear por confinamento magnético .................................................. 4 2.4 O conceito de uma usina de energia a fusão .................................................. 6 3 O desenvolvimento da fusão nuclear no mundo 9 3.1 O projeto ITER ............................................................................................... 9 3.2 Tokamaks esféricos e a rota acelerada ........................................................... 11 3.3 O stellarator Wendelstein 7-X ........................................................................ 15 3.4 Configurações alternativas de confinamento magnético ................................ 16 4 O desenvolvimento da fusão nuclear no País 17 4.1 Apanhado histórico ......................................................................................... 18 4.2 Situação atual e perspectivas de melhorias dos tokamaks existentes ............. 20 4.2.1 O tokamak TCABR ............................................................................. 20 4.2.2 O tokamak esférico ETE ...................................................................... 22 4.2.3 O tokamak NOVA-UFES .................................................................... 23 4.2.4 A primeira máquina do LFN ............................................................... 24 5 Diretrizes e ações do Programa Nacional de Fusão Nuclear 24 5.1 Implantação do LFN ....................................................................................... 25 5.2 Estímulo à participação dos grupos brasileiros atuantes ................................ 26 5.3 Exploração das tecnologias associadas ao desenvolvimento da fusão ........... 26 5.4 Colaborações internacionais ........................................................................... 27 5.5 Plano de ações ................................................................................................. 28 5.5.1 Ações de curto prazo ........................................................................... 29 5.5.2 Ações de médio prazo .......................................................................... 30 5.5.3 Ações de longo prazo .......................................................................... 31 5.6 Previsão orçamentária ..................................................................................... 32 5.7 Entregáveis ...................................................................................................... 34 Proposta de Programa Nacional de Fusão Nuclear 1 Introdução Por muitas décadas, cientistas de todo o mundo vêm trabalhando para estabelecer as con- dições nas quais a fusão termonuclear controlada possa se tornar uma fonte de energia utilizável. Em países industrializados, o desenvolvimento da fusão nuclear vem sendo co- ordenado em nível nacional devido ao seu potencial de se tornar uma fração significativa de suas respectivas matrizes energéticas. Por este mesmo motivo, é estratégico para o País estabelecer diretrizes claras que possibilitem o desenvolvimento, e futuro domínio, das tecnologias envolvidas na geração de energia através da fusão nuclear. Este documento apresenta uma proposta de Programa Nacional de Fusão Nuclear, cujo objetivo é definir diretrizes e ações de curto, médio e longo prazo que criem no País as condições necessárias para incluir a fusão nuclear em nossa matriz energética, caso esta venha a se mostrar atrativa no futuro. A implementação desse Programa, no entanto, só ocorrerá de forma efetiva com a concretização de algumas ações decisivas: • Implantação de um laboratório de porte nacional que concentre e coordene esforços que levem ao desenvolvimento da fusão nuclear no País; • Formação de recursos humanos através da participação de grupos de pesquisa nacio nais atuantes na área de fusão nuclear; • Envolvimento progressivo do setor privado nacional para que este absorva e domine as tecnologias associadas ao desenvolvimento da fusão nuclear. Para uma melhor compreensão dos aspectos relacionados ao desenvolvimento da fusão nuclear como um recurso energético utilizável, este documento está estruturado da seguinte forma: a seção2apresenta as dificuldades em suprir a crescente demanda energética mundial e como a fusão nuclear pode vir a compor o aglomerado de recursos energéticos que supre tal demanda. A seção3traz um levantamento da situação atual do desenvolvimento da fusão nuclear no mundo passando por alguns tópicos chave, como o projeto ITER (seção 3.1) e a chamada “rota acelerada” (seção3.2), que promete um caminho mais rápido para o desenvolvimento de reatores comerciais compactos. A seção4apresenta a situação atual da pesquisa nacional em fusão nuclear e, finalmente, a seção5descreve ações de curto, médio e longo prazo que visam a criar no País condições para que no futuro possamos avaliar a introdução da fusão nuclear em nossa matriz energética. 1 Proposta de Programa Nacional de Fusão Nuclear 2 A geração de energia através da fusão nuclear Esta seção descreve como a demanda energética mundial vem sendo suprida através da com- binação de diferentes fontes de energia e como o aumento dessa demanda leva à necessidade de encontrarmos novas fontes de energia. Aqui é também discutido como a fusão nuclear pode vir a se tornar um recurso energético de grande relevância e como o País pode vir a se beneficiar de sua exploração. 2.1 A necessidade de encontrarmos novas fontes de energia Energia é um insumo fundamental para a produção de alimentos, aquecimento, iluminação, transporte, etc. De forma geral, um alto consumo de energia, a custos relativamente baixos, é necessário para sustentar uma alta qualidade de vida. O aumento da qualidade de vida média da população mundial, em conjunto com um aumento significativo da população, tem levado a um crescimento do consumo de energia. Agências internacionais preveem um crescimento do consumo mundial de energia de aproximadamente 50% no período entre 2018 e 2050. A maior parte desse crescimento (mais de 85%) seria impulsionada pelo crescimento econômico e pela expansão populacional de países emergentes como China e Índia. A Figura1(a) mostra a evolução do consumo de energia anual da China e do Brasil, comparados ao consumo mundial, e ilustra de maneira dramática o forte vínculo entre consumo de energia e desenvolvimento econômico. Tal vínculo torna-se ainda mais visível se for levada em conta a evolução do produto interno bruto desses países, Figura1(b). Figura 1: (a) Consumo de energia anual do Brasil, da China e mundial no período entre 1980 e 2017. (b) Evolução do produto interno bruto do Brasil, da China e do mundo no período entre 1960 e 2019. 2 Proposta de Programa Nacional de Fusão Nuclear Um dos maiores desafios em suprir essa crescente demanda energética é encontrar novas fontes de energia que sejam seguras, sustentáveis, economicamente viáveis e compatíveis com o meio ambiente. A atual demanda energética é suprida por uma combinação de vários recursos, como energia solar, eólica, hidroelétrica, fissão nuclear, geotérmica, biomassa e combustíveis fósseis. Cada uma dessas opções possui vantagens e desvantagens e, portanto, não há uma solução única e óbvia para o problema. A maioria dos países apoia-se na queima de combustíveis fósseis para seu suprimento energético. Petróleo e gás natural, por exemplo, vêm sendo usados, em sua maior parte, para o aquecimento de casas e transporte. Já o carvão mineral, por sua vez, é o principal combustível fóssil usado para gerar energia elétrica. Um problema relacionado ao petróleo e ao gás natural é que suas reservas estão concentradas em poucos países no mundo e outro problema é que as reservas de petróleo devem se esgotar nas próximas décadas, seguindo aproximadamente uma curva de Hubbert generalizada. Em princípio, o crescimento da demanda energética poderia ser suprido pelo aumento da queima de carvão, cujas reservas são substanciais, e poderia suprir a atual demanda ainda por vários séculos. Todavia, o CO2 liberado durante a queima de combustíveis fósseis está começando a causar efeitos negativos observáveis no meio ambiente. A necessidade de redução da emissão de gases de efeito estufa, como o CO2, significa que a quantidade de energia obtida pela queima de combustíveis fósseis deve ser limitada. Existem, no entanto, poucos cenários realistas nos quais combustíveis
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