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West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Economic and Health Impacts of Air Pollution Reductions

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West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Economic and Health Impacts of Air Pollution Reductions West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Economic and health impacts of air pollution reductions UNRATIFIED Report for Birmingham City Council Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3 Issue Number 1 Date 23/02/2015 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Customer: Contact: Birmingham City Council Beth Conlan Gemini Building, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR Customer reference: t: 01235 75 3480 Click here to enter text. e: [email protected] Ricardo-AEA is certificated to ISO9001 and ISO14001 Confidentiality, copyright & reproduction: This report is the Copyright of Birmingham city Council and has been prepared by Ricardo-AEA Ltd under contract to Author: Birmingham City Council. The contents of this report may not be reproduced in whole or John Abbott in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific prior written Approved By: permission of BirminghamUNRATIFIED City Council. Beth Conlan Ricardo-AEA Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever to any third party for any loss or Date: damage arising from any interpretation or use of the information contained in this 23 February 2015 report, or reliance on any views expressed therein. Ricardo-AEA reference: Ref: ED58179 WP2/3- Issue Number 1 Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 i West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Executive summary West Midland Metropolitan Local Authorities, including Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton have developed the Low Emission Towns and Cities (LETC) Programme in response to the challenges posed by road transport emissions. The West Midlands Urban Area includes the most extensive area outside London in terms of exceeding the EU Limit Value for nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The development of a Low Emission Zone (LEZ) Feasibility Study is one of the key objectives of the LETC Programme. The aim is to provide a technical study to investigate the feasibility of creating a transferable LEZ model for the West Midlands. The West Midlands Authorities have selected various case study scenarios for the LEZ study, based on their assessment of where there is the need and potential to reduce pollutant concentrations by vehicle emissions control measures. A Low Emission Zone (LEZ) is a geographically defined area where the most polluting vehicles in the fleet are restricted or discouraged from use. The aim is to improve air quality by setting an emissions based standard for the vehicles within the area. Vehicles sold in the UK comply with European emission standards, designated Euro 1-6 for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro I-VI for heavy duty vehicles. However, previous estimates of the improvement in emissions performance of new vehicles have not always been achieved in practice. This report presents the results of an assessment of the economic benefits of air pollution reductions associated with the introduction of Low Emission Zones in the Birmingham Middle Ring Road Area and the M6 motorway. The report also considers the costs to the vehicle operators and to the councils of implementing LEZs in these areas. Finally, this report considers the health benefits associated with the reductions in air pollution resulting from the LEZ measures. An earlier report considered the benefits in terms of nitrogen dioxide concentration reductions near roads in the affected areas. The economic benefits have been assessed in terms of damage costs and abatement costs avoided. Damage costs are one way of approximating the impacts of changes in air pollution. These values measure the marginal external costs caused by each additional tonne of pollutant emitted – or conversely the benefits of reducing a pollutant emitted by one tonne, and can be used to value the benefits of air quality impacts of certain policies or projects when the only information available is the amount (in tonnes) of pollutant that is reduced. The EU has the option to impose fines if legally binding obligations, such as the air quality limit value, are not met and so remedial actions are needed to restore compliance. Consequently measures, such as Low Emission Zones, that reduce the need for further remedial action can limit financial liabilities. The abatement cost approach recognises this, and values any improvements in air quality, where concentrations exceed limit values, as the cost saved by avoiding other compliance activity. The following table shows the calculated abatement costs avoided in the Middle Ring Road area for control measures applied to various vehicles types. It also shows the abatement costs avoided including the damage costs avoided from operating the vehicles over a wider area outside the LEZ. The highest abatement costs avoided shown in the table are for requiring all taxisUNRATIFIED and private hire cars to operate on Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG): however, these benefits calculated for taxis are the most of uncertain because of the lack of detailed information about taxi movements in the city centre. Nevertheless, the Council received £0.5m to retrofit hackney taxis from Clean Vehicle fund for LPG. The table also shows the total estimated costs of the measures. These costs include the additional capital costs of replacing vehicles, changes in operating costs, additional maintenance costs, costs associated with infrastructure for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and the LEZ enforcement costs. The costs for buses operating on CNG and for taxis and private hire cars operating on Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 ii West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study LPG are shown as negative because the reduction in fuel costs over the remaining life of the vehicles is greater than the cost of conversion to CNG or LPG. Consequently, the cost effectiveness is greatest for these measures, but this assessment depends to some extent of the assumptions relating to fuel costs. The estimated costs for other measures exceed the benefits. Abatement costs avoided and implementation and operating cost in the city centre Abatement costs avoided. £(2014) thousands Total Vehicle Measure Abatement costs Including wider costs avoided in LEZ damage costs £(2014) Retrofit SCR 883 1,266 6,510 17,.270 Buses Euro VI 3,379 6,423 Compressed Natural -760 3,379 6,505 Gas Euro VI Cars Euro 6 diesel 2,975 3,823 61,610 Taxis LPG 4,558 8,678 -3,690 LGV Euro 6 diesel 226 602 35,510 HGV Euro VI 129 285 3,520 The measures for the M6 are based on diverting M6 through traffic onto the M6 Toll road. The measures include optionally diverting through traffic from/to the M40 that accesses the M6 via the M42. The measures include diverting all through traffic, all through diesel traffic and all through diesel traffic that doesn’t meet the Euro 6/VI emission standards. The following table shows the calculated abatement costs avoided including damage costs. The costs to vehicle operators would include the costs of the toll and the additional fuel costs associated with the longer route length. In all cases the toll costs to the vehicle operators substantially exceed the abatement costs avoided. UNRATIFIED Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 iii West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Abatement costs avoided and costs associated with diverting M6 through traffic onto the M6 toll road Abatement costs avoided Costs £(2014) million Diverted Abatement Including NPV toll costs NPV Fuel Route through costs damage 2018-2026, cost traffic costs £(2014) million £(2014) million M6 Northbound 13.05 14.15 253.4 11.41 M6 Southbound 11.97 13.16 220.3 9.29 M 42 Northbound 6.38 6.78 128.9 6.61 All M 42 Southbound 7.50 8.17 154.3 5.48 Total 38.90 42.27 M6 Northbound 12.83 13.64 196.9 9.44 M6 Southbound 11.44 12.29 172.6 7.44 M 42 Northbound Diesel 6.27 6.54 98.2 5.36 M 42 Southbound 7.37 7.86 118.3 4.47 Total 37.91 40.33 M6 Northbound 7.73 7.83 59.0 2.78 M6 Southbound 6.65 6.77 48.5 2.09 M 42 Northbound Diesel < Euro 6/VI 3.82 3.92 30.7 0.73 M 42 Southbound 4.47 4.55 36.3 1.36 Total 22.68 23.08 The proposed measures are primarily intended to reduce the emissions of oxides of nitrogen, which react in the atmosphere to create nitrogen dioxide. The LADSUrban model was used to calculate nitrogen dioxide concentrations at residential locations throughout the West Midlands. The World Health Organization has published recommendations for concentration- response functions for the assessment of health risks from air pollution in Europe. The following table shows the number of deaths, asthmatic children showing chronic bronchitic symptoms and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution in the West Midlands districts calculated using the concentration response functions. UNRATIFIED Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 iv West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Numbers of deaths, asthmatic children with bronchitic symptoms and respiratory hospital admissions attributable to nitrogen dioxide pollution under the business as usual case Deaths per year attributable to Prevalence of chronic bronchitis in Respiratory hospital nitrogen dioxide air pollution asthmatic children admissions per year 2011 2018 2026 Base Reduction 2011 2018 2026 2011 2018 2026 Birmingham 371 175 59 9,055 0 525 873 774 648 563 Coventry 70 21 4 2,209 0 101 164 200 171 152 Dudley 72 21 3 2,239 0 101 166 195 166 148 Sandwell 147 71 22 2,411 0 155 252 231 191 165 Solihull 62 24 7 1,516 0 80 130 138 116 102 Walsall 107 43 10 2,091 0 133 215 193 158 136 Wolverhampton 78 29 7 1,800 0 90 147 165 139 123 West Midlands metropolitan 906 383 112 21,322 - 1,184 1,946 1,896 1,589 1,388 districts UNRATIFIED Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 1 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study It is estimated that there will be 17.3 deaths attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road in 2018.
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