West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Economic and health impacts of reductions

UNRATIFIED Report for Birmingham City Council Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3 Issue Number 1 Date 23/02/2015

West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Customer: Contact: Birmingham City Council Beth Conlan Gemini Building, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR Customer reference: t: 01235 75 3480 Click here to enter text. e: [email protected] Ricardo-AEA is certificated to ISO9001 and ISO14001 Confidentiality, copyright & reproduction: This report is the Copyright of Birmingham city Council and has been prepared by Ricardo-AEA Ltd under contract to Author: Birmingham City Council. The contents of this report may not be reproduced in whole or John Abbott in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific prior written Approved By: permission of BirminghamUNRATIFIED City Council. Beth Conlan Ricardo-AEA Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever to any third party for any loss or Date: damage arising from any interpretation or use of the information contained in this 23 February 2015 report, or reliance on any views expressed therein. Ricardo-AEA reference: Ref: ED58179 WP2/3- Issue Number 1

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 i West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Executive summary

West Midland Metropolitan Local Authorities, including Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton have developed the Low Emission Towns and Cities (LETC) Programme in response to the challenges posed by road transport emissions. The West Midlands Urban Area includes the most extensive area outside London in terms of exceeding the EU Limit Value for nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The development of a Low Emission Zone (LEZ) Feasibility Study is one of the key objectives of the LETC Programme. The aim is to provide a technical study to investigate the feasibility of creating a transferable LEZ model for the West Midlands. The West Midlands Authorities have selected various case study scenarios for the LEZ study, based on their assessment of where there is the need and potential to reduce pollutant concentrations by vehicle emissions control measures. A Low Emission Zone (LEZ) is a geographically defined area where the most polluting vehicles in the fleet are restricted or discouraged from use. The aim is to improve air quality by setting an emissions based standard for the vehicles within the area. Vehicles sold in the UK comply with European emission standards, designated Euro 1-6 for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro I-VI for heavy duty vehicles. However, previous estimates of the improvement in emissions performance of new vehicles have not always been achieved in practice. This report presents the results of an assessment of the economic benefits of air pollution reductions associated with the introduction of Low Emission Zones in the Birmingham Middle Ring Road Area and the M6 motorway. The report also considers the costs to the vehicle operators and to the councils of implementing LEZs in these areas. Finally, this report considers the health benefits associated with the reductions in air pollution resulting from the LEZ measures. An earlier report considered the benefits in terms of nitrogen dioxide concentration reductions near roads in the affected areas. The economic benefits have been assessed in terms of damage costs and abatement costs avoided. Damage costs are one way of approximating the impacts of changes in air pollution. These values measure the marginal external costs caused by each additional tonne of pollutant emitted – or conversely the benefits of reducing a pollutant emitted by one tonne, and can be used to value the benefits of air quality impacts of certain policies or projects when the only information available is the amount (in tonnes) of pollutant that is reduced. The EU has the option to impose fines if legally binding obligations, such as the air quality limit value, are not met and so remedial actions are needed to restore compliance. Consequently measures, such as Low Emission Zones, that reduce the need for further remedial action can limit financial liabilities. The abatement cost approach recognises this, and values any improvements in air quality, where concentrations exceed limit values, as the cost saved by avoiding other compliance activity.

The following table shows the calculated abatement costs avoided in the Middle Ring Road area for control measures applied to various vehicles types. It also shows the abatement costs avoided including the damage costs avoided from operating the vehicles over a wider area outside the LEZ. The highest abatement costs avoided shown in the table are for requiring all taxisUNRATIFIED and private hire cars to operate on Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG): however, these benefits calculated for taxis are the most of uncertain because of the lack of detailed information about taxi movements in the city centre. Nevertheless, the Council received £0.5m to retrofit hackney taxis from Clean Vehicle fund for LPG. The table also shows the total estimated costs of the measures. These costs include the additional capital costs of replacing vehicles, changes in operating costs, additional maintenance costs, costs associated with infrastructure for (CNG) and the LEZ enforcement costs. The costs for buses operating on CNG and for taxis and private hire cars operating on

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LPG are shown as negative because the reduction in fuel costs over the remaining life of the vehicles is greater than the cost of conversion to CNG or LPG. Consequently, the cost effectiveness is greatest for these measures, but this assessment depends to some extent of the assumptions relating to fuel costs. The estimated costs for other measures exceed the benefits.

Abatement costs avoided and implementation and operating cost in the city centre Abatement costs avoided. £(2014) thousands Total Vehicle Measure Abatement costs Including wider costs avoided in LEZ damage costs £(2014) Retrofit SCR 883 1,266 6,510 17,.270 Buses Euro VI 3,379 6,423 Compressed Natural -760 3,379 6,505 Gas Euro VI Cars Euro 6 diesel 2,975 3,823 61,610 Taxis LPG 4,558 8,678 -3,690 LGV Euro 6 diesel 226 602 35,510 HGV Euro VI 129 285 3,520

The measures for the M6 are based on diverting M6 through traffic onto the M6 Toll road. The measures include optionally diverting through traffic from/to the M40 that accesses the M6 via the M42. The measures include diverting all through traffic, all through diesel traffic and all through diesel traffic that doesn’t meet the Euro 6/VI emission standards. The following table shows the calculated abatement costs avoided including damage costs. The costs to vehicle operators would include the costs of the toll and the additional fuel costs associated with the longer route length. In all cases the toll costs to the vehicle operators substantially exceed the abatement costs avoided.

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Abatement costs avoided and costs associated with diverting M6 through traffic onto the M6 toll road Abatement costs avoided Costs £(2014) million Diverted Abatement Including NPV toll costs NPV Fuel Route through costs damage 2018-2026, cost traffic costs £(2014) million £(2014) million

M6 Northbound 13.05 14.15 253.4 11.41 M6 Southbound 11.97 13.16 220.3 9.29 M 42 Northbound 6.38 6.78 128.9 6.61 All M 42 Southbound 7.50 8.17 154.3 5.48

Total 38.90 42.27 M6 Northbound 12.83 13.64 196.9 9.44 M6 Southbound 11.44 12.29 172.6 7.44 M 42 Northbound Diesel 6.27 6.54 98.2 5.36 M 42 Southbound 7.37 7.86 118.3 4.47 Total 37.91 40.33 M6 Northbound 7.73 7.83 59.0 2.78 M6 Southbound 6.65 6.77 48.5 2.09 M 42 Northbound Diesel < Euro 6/VI 3.82 3.92 30.7 0.73 M 42 Southbound 4.47 4.55 36.3 1.36 Total 22.68 23.08

The proposed measures are primarily intended to reduce the emissions of oxides of nitrogen, which react in the atmosphere to create nitrogen dioxide. The LADSUrban model was used to calculate nitrogen dioxide concentrations at residential locations throughout the West Midlands. The World Health Organization has published recommendations for concentration- response functions for the assessment of health risks from air pollution in Europe. The following table shows the number of deaths, asthmatic children showing chronic bronchitic symptoms and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution in the West Midlands districts calculated using the concentration response functions. UNRATIFIED

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Numbers of deaths, asthmatic children with bronchitic symptoms and respiratory hospital admissions attributable to nitrogen dioxide pollution under the business as usual case Deaths per year attributable to Prevalence of chronic bronchitis in Respiratory hospital nitrogen dioxide air pollution asthmatic children admissions per year

2011 2018 2026 Base Reduction 2011 2018 2026 2011 2018 2026 Birmingham 371 175 59 9,055 0 525 873 774 648 563 Coventry 70 21 4 2,209 0 101 164 200 171 152 Dudley 72 21 3 2,239 0 101 166 195 166 148 Sandwell 147 71 22 2,411 0 155 252 231 191 165 Solihull 62 24 7 1,516 0 80 130 138 116 102 Walsall 107 43 10 2,091 0 133 215 193 158 136 Wolverhampton 78 29 7 1,800 0 90 147 165 139 123

West Midlands metropolitan 906 383 112 21,322 - 1,184 1,946 1,896 1,589 1,388 districts

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It is estimated that there will be 17.3 deaths attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road in 2018. Requiring all diesel vehicles to meet the Euro VI/Euro 6 standards is predicted to reduce the number of attributable deaths by 4.5-5.9 per year. The effect of the measures on attributable deaths decreases in future years beyond 2018 and by 2026 requiring all diesel vehicles to meet Euro VI/6 only reduces calculated number of attributable deaths by 0.5 per year. It is estimated that 94.6 deaths in 2018 in the area within 2000 m of the M6 and M6 Toll roads between their junctions will be attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution. Requiring all M6 and M40/42 through traffic to divert onto the M6 Toll Road is predicted to reduce the number of attributable deaths by 5.2 per year in 2018 and 2.5 per year in 2026. The measures reduce the number of attributable deaths close to the M6 in Birmingham, Sandwell, Solihull, and Walsall and increase the number of attributable deaths close to the M6 Toll in Lichfield and North Warwickshire.

Requiring all vehicles within the Middle Ring Road to meet the Euro 6/VI emissions standards is predicted to reduce the number of asthmatic children with chronic bronchitic symptoms by 12.1 in 2018 and 1.3 in 2026 compared with the business as usual case. This combination of measures is predicted to reduce the number of hospital admissions by 2.9 per year in 2018 and 0.3 in 2026. Requiring all through traffic to divert onto the M6 Toll is estimated to reduce the number of asthmatic children with chronic bronchitic symptoms by 11.0 in 2018 and 5.7 in 2026. The measure is estimated to reduce the number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases by 2.7 in 2018 and 1.5 in 2026 compared with the 2018 and 2026 base cases.

The LADSUrban model was also used to predict concentrations of particulate matter, PM2.5 at residential receptors. The effects of the proposed measures on a range of health outcomes were then calculated. However, the effect of the proposed measures on deaths and respiratory hospital admissions attributable to reductions in particulate matter concentrations is much smaller than that attributable to the reductions in nitrogen dioxide concentrations.

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Table of contents

1 Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Economic benefits ...... 2 1.2 Health impacts ...... 3

2 Birmingham city centre...... 4 2.1 Introduction ...... 4 2.2 Scenarios ...... 4 2.3 Emissions ...... 4 2.4 Damage costs ...... 8 2.5 Compliance assessment ...... 10 2.6 Unit abatement costs ...... 10 2.7 Costs of the measures ...... 13

3 M6 Motorway ...... 25 3.1 Introduction ...... 25 3.2 Scenarios ...... 25 3.3 Emissions ...... 25 3.4 Damage costs ...... 28 3.5 Compliance assessment ...... 28 3.6 Abatement costs avoided ...... 29 3.7 Cost of measures ...... 29 3.8 Comparison of abatement costs avoided and scheme costs ...... 31

4 Health Impact Assessment ...... 32 4.1 Introduction ...... 32 4.2 Community profile ...... 32 4.3 Baseline health status ...... 37 4.4 Health impacts associated with air pollution ...... 41

Appendices Appendix 1 – Emissions estimates used in economic analysis

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1 Introduction

West Midland Metropolitan Local Authorities, including Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton have developed the Low Emission Towns and Cities (LETC) Programme in response to the challenges posed by road transport emissions. The West Midlands Urban Area includes the most extensive area outside London in terms of exceeding the EU Limit Value for nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The development of a Low Emission Zone (LEZ) Feasibility Study is one of the key objectives of the LETC Programme. The aim is to provide a technical study to investigate the feasibility of creating a transferable LEZ model for the West Midlands. A Low Emission Zone (LEZ) is a geographically defined area where the most polluting vehicles in the fleet are restricted or discouraged from use. The aim is to improve air quality by setting an emissions based standard for the vehicles within the area. Vehicles sold in the UK comply with European emission standards, designated Euro 1-6 for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro I-VI for heavy duty vehicles. This report presents the results of modelling studies and concentration projections for 2018 and 2026 for a range of case study scenarios. The projected concentrations are compared with the annual mean EU limit value (the “limit value”). The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland sets an air quality objective for nitrogen dioxide that is equivalent to the limit value. This report is one of a series of reports. A previous report described the modelling methods used in this report. The modelling studies and concentration projections for 2018 and 2026 make assumptions about the age composition of the future vehicle fleet and the emissions performance of future vehicles. The assumptions are based on projections made for the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory. Predicted reductions in pollutant concentrations may not be achieved if older vehicles are replaced more slowly than has been assumed or if the expected emissions performance of new vehicles, in particular Euro 6 light duty vehicles and Euro VI heavy duty vehicles, is not achieved in practice. Previous estimates of the improvement in emissions performance of new vehicles have not always been achieved in practice. The West Midlands Authorities have selected the following case study scenarios for the LEZ study, based on their assessment of where there is the need and potential to reduce pollutant concentrations by vehicle emissions control measures:  City/Town Centre-Birmingham City Centre o The study will look at the possible effects of improving the emissions of key vehicle sectors within the area bounded by the Middle Ring Road. It will include an analysis of bus emissions building on the Birmingham City Centre Bus Statutory Quality Partnership Scheme, which requires bus operators serving the City Centre to meet minimum standards of service provision, including vehicle emissions.  Urban street canyon-Bearwood Road o Bearwood Road is typical of a congested street canyon in which buildings UNRATIFIEDclose to the road restrict pollutant dispersion. High concentrations of nitrogen dioxide have been measured where people live close to the road.  Strategic motorway network-M6/M6 Toll motorways o Several sections of the M6 within the West Midlands Metropolitan Area are ranked by the Department for Transport in the bottom 10% of motorways for journey reliability, measured as average vehicle delays. The M6 carried almost 125,000 vehicles per day in 2010. The M6 Toll was opened in 2003 as a parallel motorway to the M6, aimed at reducing congestion by providing an

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alternative route to vehicles transiting between the northwest and the southeast through the region. When the M6 Toll opened, it was projected to carry 70,000 vehicles per day but it carried less than 40,000 per day in 2010. The M6 passes close to some of the most populated areas in the West Midlands: the M6 Toll, on the other hand, passes through less densely populated areas with less potential for exposure to road transport emissions. The LEZ study will consider feasible mechanisms for reducing traffic on the M6 by diverting certain vehicle types transiting the West Midlands onto the M6 Toll.  Inter-Urban Corridors- o A458/A456 corridor: This route between Dudley and Birmingham City Centre is heavily trafficked and typical of key inter-urban corridors within the West Midlands, causing significant exposure issues to residents along the route. o 4M bus route: This route between Walsall and Brierley Hill passes through several town centre areas including Blackheath. o A457/A459 between Birmingham city centre and Wolverhampton city centre o A454 Walsall to Wolverhampton o Ball Hill corridor, Coventry. Buses contribute significantly to emissions on this route. HGVs gaining access to M6 junction 2 also make up a substantial part of the traffic o A459 through Netherton. A previous report, “WP1: Scenario modelling base case”, presented the results dispersion modelling and source apportionment for each of these case study scenarios. A further report, “WP1a: Scenario modelling”, presents further results from dispersion modelling and concentration projection studies for a range of emission reduction scenarios. The project steering group met on 28th November 2013 to develop plans for further work to assess the technical feasibility of Low Emission Zones for the West Midlands. The steering group took into account the results set out the WP1 report. It was agreed to focus in depth (economic and health benefit assessments) on two areas, these being:  Birmingham City Centre This is the scenario which lends itself best to a ‘traditional’ LEZ style solution and has both a clearly defined boundary and most clearly understood source apportionment. Importantly, this scenario lends itself exceptionally well as a model for transferability with other major centres in the region having the potential to benefit from scenario options assessed e.g. Wolverhampton, Walsall. The area in question would be within the Middle Ring Road.  M6 / M6 Toll The M6 as a scenario area possibly has the greatest impact in terms of pollution burden in the area and crosses / straddles a number of districts. Importantly in so far as a length of motorway can be assessed this stretch is probably the only stretch which has a viable alternate route in place, this being the M6 Toll. The area in question would be from the upper and lower junctions of the M6 & M6 Toll. This study examines the economic benefits and health impacts of selected LEZ and measure combinations to allow assessment of the most cost-effective LES measures combination. UNRATIFIED 1.1 Economic benefits Defra’s Interdepartmental Group on Costs and Benefits (IGCB) provides advice relating to the quantification and valuation of local environmental impacts1. The Group has

1 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Abatement cost guidance for valuing changes in air quality

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 2 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study recommended different methodologies for valuing changes in air quality, depending on the circumstances. The Group recommends the abatement cost approach where pollutant concentrations exceed legally binding obligations. Annual mean nitrogen dioxide concentrations exceed the EU limit value of 40 µg m-3 at many monitoring sites in West Midlands and so this approach is appropriate. The EU has the option to impose fines if legally binding obligations, such as the air quality limit value, are not met and so remedial actions are needed to restore compliance. Consequently measures, such as Low Emission Zones, that reduce the need for further remedial action can limit financial liabilities. The abatement cost approach recognises this, and values any improvements in air quality, where concentrations exceed limit values, as the cost saved by avoiding other compliance activity. The IGCB developed a four stage methodology for the abatement cost approach: Estimate the likely scale of the impact on emissions by applying damage costs to the change in emissions. The IGCB have developed a Damage Cost Calculator for this purpose. Identify whether there is expected to be any impact on compliance with legally- binding obligations. Estimate the value of the change in air quality using unit abatement costs, which provide an indicative marginal cost per tonne of emission based on the average marginal abatement technology. This provides an easy to use indicative estimate of the abatement impact. Where a measure is likely to have a significant impact on compliance (suggested as a value greater than £50m) then more detailed analysis may be justified. Sections 2 and 3 of this report apply the abatement cost approach to estimate the benefits of proposed measures in the Birmingham Middle Ring Road and the M6/M6 Toll. Sections 2 and 3 also provide estimates of the costs of the proposed measures. The costs are compared with the abatement costs avoided by the measures.

1.2 Health impacts Pollutant emissions from traffic within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road and on the M6 affect the health of local residents. The pollution contributes to a range of adverse health outcomes including the mortality of local residents and to hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Section 4 of this report provides an assessment of the impact of the proposed measures on relevant health outcomes.

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2 Birmingham city centre

2.1 Introduction The WP1 Scenario modelling base case report provides details of the source apportionment of nitrogen dioxide concentrations within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road. The analysis was based on dispersion modelling for the 2011 base case and on source apportionment of measured nitrogen dioxide concentrations. The WP1a Scenario modelling report provided an assessment of the potential impact on nitrogen dioxide concentrations of a range of measures to reduce emissions of oxides of nitrogen within the Middle Ring Road in 2018 and 2026. This section of the report provides an assessment of the costs and benefits of the proposed measures.

2.2 Scenarios Table 2.1 shows the Low Emission Zone scenarios identified by the project working group for the area within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road. Table 2.1: Birmingham City Centre LEZ scenarios

Scenario Vehicle Scenario Option (no Reference Additional requirements (Sc1) Type access unless) Sc1.1 Buses Euro VI / SCR retrofit / CNG Comment on the likely effects / impacts from the existing bus Sc1.2 Cars Euro 6 diesel Birmingham statutory quality partnership City Centre Sc1.3 Taxis LPG scheme scheme. Sc1.4 HGV / LGV Euro VI Sc1.1, Sc1.2, Sc1.3, Sc 1.4 Sc1.5 All above combined

The Birmingham Bus Statutory Quality Partnership Scheme came into operation on 22 July 2012. The measures introduced included changes to the bus routes within the city centre (e.g. closure of Corporation Street to buses and taxis) and minimum bus emission standards. All core bus routes are required to meet the Euro IV standard by 28th May 2017. The Partnership agreement does not require further improvements beyond Euro IV in subsequent years.

2.3 Emissions In order to estimate the impact of proposed Low Emission Zone measures on damage costs and abatement costs it is necessary to compare the emissions of pollutants with the measures against the “do nothing” alternative for the period that the measures have effect. 2.3.1 BusesUNRATIFIED The exact composition of the bus fleet that will serve Birmingham city centre in future years is unknown. Bus operators will replace existing buses and deploy their fleets to meet changing operational and regulatory requirements. Two hypothetical scenarios on how the fleet will change in the future have been modelled. The first of these refers to the National Express fleet. The vast majority of buses in Birmingham City Centre are operated by National Express West Midlands from their Acocks Green, Bardesley, Birmingham City, Perry Barr

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 4 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study and Yardley Wood (all Birmingham), Pensnett (Dudley) and West Bromwich (Sandwell) depots. Projected estimates of the National Express bus fleet in future years with and without the Bus Statutory Quality Partnership Scheme and without the Low Emission Zone have been made assuming that buses more than 15 years old are replaced by new buses each year. The second scenario relates to the national fleet data from the Department of Transport wihin the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) The NAEI also provides forecasts of the composition of the U.K. bus fleet in future years. The analysis has therefore taken into account these alternative projections in order to address the uncertainty in the composition of future bus fleets. The variables in these scenarios could have been applied to the other fleet but running these provide an indication of the uncertainty of the fleet. Table 2.2 shows the projected Euro category composition for each of the base cases. As the SBQP will remove buses older than Euro IV from the fleet and replace them with buses meeting Euro IV consequently there will not be any buses old enough to require replacement between 2018 and 2021 as shown in Table 2.2. For this study it was assumed that the National Express fleet remains the same between 2018 and 2021, although in reality the National Express fleeet operator may well continue to renew the fleet. The Emissions Factor toolkit (supplied by Defra) and used to calculate emissions has some classes of vehicle deteriorating with age: so the emissions for the same fleet increase slightly with age. For comparision purposes it was assumed that the NAEI fleet would continue to be renewed. The SBQP is currently being revised with an ambition to bring forward the date by which operators should comply with the Euro standard. Table 2.2: Projected Euro category composition of bus fleets 2018-2030, with and without Bus Statutory Quality Partnership Scheme Proportion of vehicles in Euro category Without Bus Statutory Quality Partnership Scheme Projection based on 2014 National Express NAEI projection fleet Year Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI

0 2018 0.117 0.186 0.227 0.47 0.024 0.099 0.090 0.302 0.485

2019 0 0.031 0.186 0.227 0.556 0.016 0.077 0.073 0.263 0.569 2020 0 0.024 0.186 0.227 0.563 0.009 0.065 0.050 0.228 0.649 2021 0 0 0.186 0.227 0.587 0.003 0.051 0.039 0.188 0.719 2022 0 0 0.077 0.227 0.696 0.000 0.041 0.033 0.146 0.780 2023 0 0 0.054 0.227 0.719 0.000 0.029 0.024 0.118 0.829 2024 0 0 0 0.227 0.773 0.000 0.019 0.020 0.091 0.870 2025 0 0 0 0.182 0.818 0.000 0.010 0.016 0.068 0.905 2026 0 0 0 0.156 0.844 0.000 0.004 0.013 0.054 0.929 2027 0 0 0 0.054 0.946 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.044 0.946 2028 0 0 0 0 1 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.034 0.962 2029 0 0 0 0 1 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.027 0.973 2030 0 UNRATIFIED0 0 0 1 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.019 0.981 With Bus Statutory Quality Partnership Scheme Projection based on 2014 National Express NAEI projection fleet

Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI

2018 0 0 0.411 0.227 0.362 0 0 0.213 0.302 0.485

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2019 0 0 0.411 0.227 0.362 0 0 0.167 0.263 0.569 2020 0 0 0.411 0.227 0.362 0 0 0.123 0.228 0.649 2021 0 0 0.411 0.227 0.362 0 0 0.093 0.188 0.719 2022 0 0 0.077 0.227 0.696 0 0 0.073 0.146 0.780 2023 0 0 0.054 0.227 0.719 0 0 0.053 0.118 0.829 2024 0 0 0 0.227 0.773 0 0 0.039 0.091 0.870 2025 0 0 0 0.182 0.818 0 0 0.027 0.068 0.905 2026 0 0 0 0.156 0.844 0 0 0.017 0.054 0.929 2027 0 0 0 0.054 0.946 0 0 0.010 0.044 0.946 2028 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.004 0.034 0.962 2029 0 0 0 0 1 0.004 0.027 0.973 2030 0 0 0 0 1 0.004 0.019 0.981

Information on the routes taken through the city centre by buses and their frequency was obtained from the Network West Midlands website http://www.networkwestmidlands.com/. Bus timetables for each bus service also provided information on the time between bus stops and total return route duration. The bus routes through the city centre were digitised and the length of the routes determined using a Geospatial Information System. The distance travelled on each return bus route was estimated from time taken to complete the route assuming an average speed (including stops) of 20 km h-1.

The emissions of oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) were calculated for each route through the city centre using Defra’s Emission Factor Toolkit EFT 6.0.1. The Emission Factor Toolkit does not provide detailed calculations of emissions of carbon dioxide for all the relevant scenarios. Specific emission factors for carbon dioxide for each Euro class were obtained for the diesel and compressed natural gas buses from the Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA 3.2). The emissions from buses calculated for the Middle Ring Road LEZ and for the affected bus routes for each year 2018-2030 and each scenario are listed in Appendix 1.

2.3.2 Cars The emissions from cars with and without the proposed measure were estimated for the road links within the Middle Ring Road Area LEZ using Defra’s Emission factor Toolkit EFT 6.0.1. Vehicle flows and speeds were taken from the PRISM traffic model as descried in the WP1 report. It was assumed that the age distribution and proportion of diesel cars in the city centre corresponded to the default projections included within the Emission Factor Toolkit. Cars replaced as the result of restrictions imposed on vehicles entering the LEZ will also drive outside the LEZ affecting emissions over a wider area. The number of cars that would be replaced as the result of the proposed measure is unknown. However, there were 55,230 cars registered in Birmingham postal districts within or adjacent to the Middle Ring Road (B1-B12, B15, B16, B18, B19)2 in the second quarter of 2014 and it is assumed here that similar numbers of vehicles will be affected by the Low Emission Zone measure, potentially requiring replacement. In practice, some of these vehicles may rarely enter the city centre while others from outside the area regularly enter. Cars and taxis registered in the West Midlands are UNRATIFIEDestimated to travel on average 11,334 km per year3. It was therefore assumed that cars potentially affected by the measure will drive 626 million vehicle-kilometres per year.

2 DfT Vehicle Statistics Table VEH0122 3 DfT statistics Tables TRA0206, VEH0104

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The calculated emissions for NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 are listed in Appendix 1. Emissions for carbon dioxide have not been calculated in this case because the emission factors are very similar for all Euro classes for diesel cars4.

2.3.3 Taxis The emissions from both hackney and private hire taxis with and without the proposed measure were estimated for the road links within the Middle Ring Road Area LEZ using Defra’s Emission Factor Toolkit EFT 5.2c5. There is no detailed information about the flows of taxis throughout Birmingham city centre. The SPECTRUM database provided details of manual counts taken in 2011 that distinguished between taxis, private hire cars and other cars for Corporation Street, Bull Street and Priory Queensway. From this data it was estimated that taxis and private hire cars make up 27%6 of the total cars in Birmingham city centre. Scenario Sc1.3 was therefore represented by assuming that 27% of cars in the city centre used Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). However, as this 27% is uncertain this may result in some overestimation of the benefits associated with measures applied to taxis in the city centre. The City Council received a £0.5m award from the Clean Air Fund to retrofit hackney taxis to LPG. Birmingham City Council provided details of the age profile of the 1,349 Hackney carriages and 4,970 private hire vehicles licensed to operate in Birmingham in January 2013. The vehicle age profile was compared with the default age profile for diesel passenger cars in the Emission Factor Toolkit. The Birmingham vehicle age profile lagged behind the default age profile by approximately 4 years. The projected emissions for future years were therefore calculated assuming the Birmingham taxi fleet age profile continues to lag 4 years behind the default fleet. Taxis operating in Birmingham City Centre also operate over a wider area. The emissions over a wider area were calculated assuming that each Hackney Carriage or private hire vehicle travels 50,000 km per year based on surveys elsewhere7. The Emission Factor Toolkit does not provide emission factors for carbon dioxide for LPG passenger cars. Emission factors for carbon dioxide were therefore taken from the Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA 3.2).

The calculated emissions for NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 are listed in Appendix 1.

2.3.4 Light Goods Vehicles The emissions from light goods vehicles (LGV) with and without the proposed measure were estimated for the road links within the Middle Ring Road Area LEZ using Defra’s Emission factor Toolkit EFT 6.0.1. LGV flows and speeds were taken from the PRISM traffic model and from DfT manual count data as described in the WP1 report. It was assumed that the age distribution and proportion of diesel LGVs in the city centre corresponded to the default projections included within the Emission Factor Toolkit. LGVs replaced as the result of restrictions imposed on vehicles entering the LEZ will also drive outside the LEZ, affecting emissions over a wider area. The number of LGVs that would be replaced as the result of the proposed measure is unknown. However, it is estimated that there were 11,851 LGVs registered in Birmingham postal districts within or adjacent to the Middle Ring Road (B1-B12, B15, B16, B18, B19)8 in the second quarter of UNRATIFIED 4 Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport HBEFA 3.2 5 Version 5.2c was used here because the latest version 6.0.1 did not provide consistent results when using the Alternative Technology option. 6 There is uncertainty in this estimated 27% 7 http://www.insuretaxi.com/taxi-driver-survey-2013/ http://www.guildford.gov.uk/media/13191/Appendix-3-to-agenda-item-6-Methodologypdf/pdf/pdf15.pdf http://www.doeni.gov.uk/review_of_taxi_fares_and_taxi_fare_structure.pdf http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/cs/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobheadername1=Content- Disposition&blobkey=id&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=1223563113844&ssbinary=true&blobheadervalue1=attachment%3B+filename%3D3 53114Birmingham_Final_Report_with_App.pdf

8 DfT Vehicle Statistics Table VEH0122 in conjunction with Table VEH0105

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2014 and it is assumed here that similar numbers of vehicles will be affected by the Low Emission Zone measure, potentially requiring replacement. In practice, some of these vehicles may rarely enter the city centre while others from outside the area regularly enter. LGVs registered in the West Midlands are estimated to travel on average 16,958 km per year9. It was therefore assumed that LGVs potentially affected by the measure will drive 192 million vehicle-kilometres per year.

The calculated emissions for NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 are listed in Appendix 1. Emissions for carbon dioxide have not been calculated in this case because the emission factors are very similar for all Euro classes for diesel cars10.

2.3.5 Heavy Goods Vehicles The emissions from heavy goods vehicles (HGV) with and without the proposed measure were estimated for the road links within the Middle Ring Road Area LEZ using Defra’s Emission factor Toolkit EFT 6.0.1. HGV flows and speeds were taken from the PRISM traffic model and from DfT manual count data as described in the WP1 report. It was assumed that the age distribution of HGVs in the city centre corresponded to the default projections included within the Emission Factor Toolkit. HGVs replaced as the result of restrictions imposed on vehicles entering the LEZ will also drive outside the LEZ, affecting emissions over a wider area. The number of HGVs that would be replaced as the result of the proposed measure is unknown. However, it is estimated that there were 578 HGVs registered in Birmingham postal districts within or adjacent to the Middle Ring Road (B1-B12, B15, B16, B18, B19)11 in the second quarter of 2014 and it is assumed here that these vehicles will be affected by the Low Emission Zone measure, potentially requiring replacement. In practice, some of these vehicles may rarely enter the city centre while others from outside the area regularly enter. HGVs registered in the West Midlands are estimated to travel on average 48,109 km per year12. It was therefore assumed that HGVs potentially affected by the measure will drive 27.8 million vehicle- kilometres per year. It was assumed that rigid HGVs will make up 80% and articulated HGVs 20% of the Birmingham-registered HGV fleet, based on NAEI fleet projections13. The likely impact of a LEZ targeting HGVs will be much wider than the LEZ area and emission reduction over a wide area would be expected.

The calculated emissions for NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 are listed in Appendix 1. Emissions for carbon dioxide have not been calculated in this case because the available emission factors are very similar for all Euro classes for diesel heavy goods vehicles14.

2.4 Damage costs Damage costs are one way of approximating the impacts of changes in air pollution. These values measure the marginal external costs caused by each additional tonne of pollutant emitted – or conversely the benefits of reducing a pollutant emitted by one tonne, and can be used to value the benefits of air quality impacts of certain policies or projects when the only information available is the amount (in tonnes) of pollutant that is reduced. The damage costs avoided as the result of the proposed measures have been calculated using Defra’s Damage Cost Calculator. Air pollution has a number of important impacts on human health, as well as on the natural and built environments. The damage costs include values for theUNRATIFIED impacts of exposure to air pollution on health – both chronic mortality effects (which consider the loss of life years due to air pollution) and morbidity effects (which consider changes in the number of hospital admissions for respiratory or cardiovascular

9 DfT statistics Tables TRA0206, VEH0104 10 Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport HBEFA 3.2 11 DfT Vehicle Statistics Table VEH0122 in conjunction with Table VEH0105 12 DfT statistics Tables TRA0206, VEH0104 13 http://naei.defra.gov.uk/data/ef-transport 14 Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport HBEFA 3.2

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 8 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study illness) – in addition to damage to buildings (through building soiling) and impacts on materials. Table 2.3 shows the damage costs avoided based on the emissions reductions in the Birmingham Middle Ring Road LEZ for each of the proposed measures. Table 2.4 similarly shows the damage costs avoided over the wider area affected by changes in the LEZ area. Tables 2.3 and 2.4 show the damage costs avoided from reductions in the emissions of oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter and carbon dioxide and the total damage cost avoided. The damage costs have been calculated assuming that the measures are implemented in 2018 and taking into account the effect of projected emissions reductions to 2030. The costs are reported for a base year of 2014. The replacement of diesel-engined taxis with taxis running on LPG results in the largest saving in damage costs. The reduction in carbon dioxide emissions for LPG taxis makes a substantial contribution to the damage costs avoided. Requiring all buses operating in the city centre to meet the Euro VI results in the largest saving in damage costs from oxides of nitrogen emissions over the wider area, particularly for buses running on compressed natural gas. The Bus statutory quality partnership scheme (SQPS) requires all buses to meet the Euro IV emission standards by May 2017. The effect on damage costs avoided has been assessed for two cases based on the projection of the National Express West Midland (NXWM) fleet and on the NAEI projections. The effect of the SBQP on damage costs is substantially affected by the assumptions made on how the bus companies will behave. For the NXWM base fleet case, it was assumed for the hypothetical modelling scenario that the oldest buses in the Birmingham fleet would be replaced with Euro IV buses from elsewhere: this delays the introduction of Euro VI buses in future resulting in a negative saving in damage costs. However, the hypothetical scenario for the NAEI fleet assumed continued bus fleet improvement beyond 2018 and therefore the use of the NAEI projections results in a positive saving in the calculated damage costs. This therefore indicates that it is important for investment in the bus fleet improvements to continue beyond the 2017 date in the SBQP. The positive saving in the damage costs is likely to be an underestimate as the emission benefit of an upgraded fleet will be seen beyond the LEZ area itself. Table 2.3: Damage costs avoided in the Birmingham LEZ Damage costs avoided, £(2014) thousands Vehicles Measure NOx PM CO2 Total Effect of SBQP, NXWM base fleet -22 -4 2 -23 Effect of SBQP, NAEI base fleet 10 44 8 62 Buses Retrofit SCR 36 0 0 36 Euro VI 142 131 -5 268 Compressed Natural Gas 142 131 14 288 Cars Euro VI diesel 129 248 0 377 Taxis LPG 219 312 443 974 LGV Euro 6 diesel 4 11 0 15 HGV Euro VI 1 6 0 7 UNRATIFIED Table 2.4: Damage costs avoided in the wider area affected by measures in the Birmingham LEZ Damage costs avoided, £(2014) thousands Vehicles Measure NOx PM CO2 Total Effect of SBQP, NXWM base fleet -215 -34 19 -229 Buses Effect of SBQP, NAEI base fleet 127 579 68 774

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Retrofit SCR 383 0 0 383 Euro VI 1,550 1,448 46 3,044 Compressed Natural Gas 1,550 1,448 127 3,125 Cars Euro VI diesel 300 548 0 848 Taxis LPG 924 1,315 1,881 4,121 LGV Euro 6 diesel 206 170 0 376 HGV Euro VI 69 87 0 155

2.5 Compliance assessment The WP1a report considered the effect of the proposed measures on concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in Birmingham City Centre in 2018 and 2026. Modelled concentrations in 2018 exceeded the statutory limit of 40 µg m-3 at several pollution hot spots in the city centre. The modelled concentrations were smaller in 2026 but the highest concentrations were still close to the limit value at some locations. The modelling reported in the WP1a report also showed that the limit value will continue to be exceeded at some locations outside Birmingham City Centre in the Borough of Birmingham and in neighbouring boroughs beyond 2018.

2.6 Unit abatement costs

2.6.1 Introduction This section provides a summary of the abatement costs avoided by the proposed measures in the Middle Ring Road area of Birmingham. The abatement costs avoided have been calculated over the period from the implementation of the measures in 2018 and the achievement of the limit value under the business as usual case in around 2026. The abatement costs avoided have been calculated for the Middle Ring Road Low Emission Zone and for the wider area affected by the measures.

2.6.2 Choice of unit abatement costs Defra developed estimates of the unit costs for emission abatement using a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) to estimate the potential supply of abatement at a national scale. The MACC reflects the abatement potential and cost for a range of different abatement technologies. Wider impacts on society are incorporated, including: impacts on other pollutants; energy and fuel impacts, and health impacts (damage costs). The abatement represented by the national average compliance gap is compared against the MACC to estimate an indicative unit cost of abatement. It is only indicative because both the gap and the abatement potential from different technologies will vary between areas.

The unit cost is provided in terms of the marginal cost of emissions, usually measured in £/tonne. Table 2.5 below shows the menu of abatement costs which have been derived from the NOx MACC. These are derived from the full package of measures that would mitigate the typical complianceUNRATIFIED gap, assessed for the year 2015. It is an extract from the complete MACC. The measures shown include those which may represent the marginal technology once all cheaper options have been exhausted.

Defra’s guidance recommends that the appraiser should decide which value is most appropriate for a particular case. If there is no clear rationale to use a particular measure the recommended default value is £29,150.

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Sensitivity analysis is recommended to reflect the uncertainty in the abatement costs, using both a higher and lower abatement cost technology selected from Table 2.5. The selection of these technologies is for the judgement of the analyst. If the default value of £29,150 is used then it is suggested that a range of £28,000 - £73,000 is appropriate, derived from the rounded values of the abatement technologies on either side of the default value in Table 2.5.

UNRATIFIED

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Table 2.5: Marginal abatement costs of national measures to reduce oxides of nitrogen emissions Marginal Abatement Cost (£/Tonne of Baseline Abatement Sector Sub sector NOx) 2015 Technology Measure

RT HGV Euro II SCR 5099 RT HGV Euro III SCR 5380 RT Buses Euro II SCR 6251 RT Buses Euro I Hybrid 6500 RT Buses Euro I SCR 6625 RT Buses Euro III SCR 7257 RT Buses Euro II Hybrid 7462 RT HGV Euro IV SCR 8053 RT Buses Euro III Hybrid 9423 RT Buses Euro IV SCR 11889 RT Buses Euro I Electric 14669 RT Buses Euro II Electric 14872 RT Buses Euro III Electric 17352 Articulated RT New Euro V Euro VI 17743 HGV RT Buses Euro IV Hybrid 18391 Commer Boiler Buildings 19332 cial replacement RT Buses New Euro V Euro VI 24852 RT Rigid HGV New Euro V Euro VI 28374 RT Buses Euro IV Electric 29150 RT Buses Euro V Hydrogen 72932 Diesel LGV - RT New Euro 5 class I Euro 6 79323 class 1 RT Diesel LGV Euro 1 Electric 100665 RT Diesel LGV Euro 2 Electric 111619 RT Petrol cars Euro 1 Electric 112030 RT Diesel cars Euro 1 Electric 135949 Diesel LGV - RT New Euro 5 class II Euro 6 144124 class 2 Diesel LGV - New Euro 5 class RT Euro 6 144124 class 3 III RT Diesel cars Euro 2 Electric 156046 RT Diesel LGV Euro 5 Electric 240484 RT Diesel LGV Euro 3 Electric 262466 RT Petrol cars Euro 2 Electric 280450 RT DieselUNRATIFIED cars Euro 3 Electric 304593 RT=Road Transport

2.6.3 Abatement costs avoided Table 2.6 shows the net present value (base 2014) of the abatement costs avoided for each of the emission reduction measures applied to the Birmingham Middle Ring Road LEZ. A discount rate of 3.5% was applied to future year abatement costs avoided: this discount rate has been used throughout this report. Table 2.6 shows the abatement costs calculated for

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 12 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study the default unit abatement cost of £29150 per tonne and for the upper and lower bound values of £73,000 per tonne and £28,000 per tonne. It also shows the abatement cost attributed to the LEZ plus the damage costs resulting from the measures over the wider area. Table 2.6: Abatement costs avoided in the city centre Abatement costs avoided. £(2014) thousands Vehicle Measure Including £29,150 £28,000 £73,000 damage costs15 Retrofit SCR 883 848 2,212 919 Buses Euro VI 3,379 3,246 8,463 3,647 Compressed Natural Gas 3,379 3,246 8,463 3,667 Cars Euro 6 diesel 2,975 2,857 7,450 3,352 Taxis LPG 4,558 4,378 11,414 5,532 LGV Euro 6 diesel 226 217 567 241 HGV Euro VI 129 124 324 136

Table 2.6 only takes account of the emission reductions within the LEZ; these are the abatement costs avoided that can be positively assigned to the measures taken in the LEZ. However, the abatement costs avoided will be greater if compliance with the limit values outside the LEZ is made easier as the result of the measures taken in the LEZ. Table 2.7 provides details of the abatement costs avoided taking account of the reduction in emissions over the wider area affected by the measures. This can be considered to be the maximum possible benefit from the measures. Table 2.7: Abatement costs avoided in the wider area from measures in the city centre Abatement costs avoided. £(2014) thousands Including Vehicle Measure wider £29,150 £28,000 £73,000 damage costs Retrofit SCR 9,305 8,938 23,302 9,688 Buses Euro VI 36,795 35,344 92,146 39,839 Compressed Natural Gas 36,795 35,344 92,146 39,920 Cars Euro 6 diesel 6,919 6,646 17,327 7,767 Taxis LPG 18,753 18,013 46,964 22,874 LGV Euro 6 diesel 4,803 4,614 12,029 5,179 HGV Euro VI 1,673 1,607 4,189 1,828 2.7 CostsUNRATIFIED of the measures 2.7.1 Introduction The implementation of a Low Emission Zones in Birmingham City Centre will result in additional costs to the Council for the enforcement of the LEZs and, more generally, the additional capital, operating and maintenance costs for the owners of vehicles associated with replacement or retrofitting vehicles. This section estimates the additional costs

15 This is the abatement cost avoided based on the £29,150 plus the damage costs

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 13 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study associated with the Birmingham LEZ. It first provides details of the assumptions made in estimating these costs for each measure. The additional costs are then compared with the abatement costs and damage costs avoided as the result of implementing the measures.

2.7.2 Bus replacement with Euro VI buses Replacing buses that do not meet the Euro VI standard with new buses in 2018 will result in  additional capital expenditure for the bus operator  additional operational costs (e.g. urea consumption in selective catalytic reduction)  additional maintenance costs. The capital cost of a new bus depends on its specification. This assessment assumes a capital cost for a new double decker bus in 2018 of £180,000. Many of the bus companies operate large fleets of buses across the UK and, in theory, it might be possible to accommodate a requirement to replace buses in Birmingham by redeploying the older buses throughout the country, at minimal cost. In practice, this will not always be possible and it will then be necessary to sell surplus buses second-hand. The price of second-hand buses depends on the age, specification and condition of the buses. Fig.1 shows the advertised prices of second-hand buses on coachandbusmarket.com on 14th May 2014. Fig. 1 also shows the second-hand price function used in this assessment. Fig. 1: Second-hand bus prices, 2014

New buses entering service in 2018 would be expected to continue operating for 15 years until 2032 based on the age profile of the buses currently operating on the main bus routes in Birmingham. UNRATIFIEDUnder the business as usual case, older buses would gradually be replaced throughout the period 2018-2032 with new buses that meet the Euro VI standard or better. The capital cost for the business as usual replacement of buses was calculated as the sum of the discounted equivalent annualised costs for the years of operation of the replacement buses16 in the period 2018-2032, assuming a discount rate of 3.5%. In effect, this assumes

16 Calculated as where P is the capital cost of the bus, r=1/(1+d), d is the discount rate, s is the replacement year of the bus under business as usual, q is the implementation year of the measure, p is the base year and n is the life of the bus.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 14 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study that the cost of new buses can be spread throughout their lifetime: the method allows the costs to be attributed consistently to the life of the buses replaced in 2018. The net capital cost of replacing buses in 2018 was calculated as the capital cost of a new bus (£180,000) less the second hand price of the replaced bus and less the business as usual capital cost. The 2018 capital costs have been discounted to a 2014 base year to allow comparison with the abatement costs and damage costs. Additional operational costs for replacing Euro I-Euro IV buses with Euro VI buses were assumed to be £427 per year17, based on estimates of the additional use of urea in selective catalytic reduction. It was assumed that this cost would also be incurred by existing Euro V buses. The additional operating costs were assumed to apply also to buses replaced under the business as usual scenario. Additional maintenance costs for replacing Euro I-Euro IV buses with Euro VI buses were assumed to be £1000 per year18. It was assumed that this cost would also be incurred by existing Euro V buses. The additional operating costs were assumed to also apply to buses replaced under the business as usual scenario. The vast majority of buses in Birmingham City Centre are operated by National Express West Midlands from their Acocks Green, Bardesley, Birmingham City, Perry Barr and Yardley Wood (all Birmingham), Pensnett (Dudley) and West Bromwich (Sandwell) depots. There are currently approximately 1000 buses operating out of these depots, with approximately 700 buses operating out of the Birmingham depots. Analysis of bus timetables provided estimates of the return route duration for each of the bus services in Birmingham City centre and the frequency of buses during the morning peak period. The theoretical minimum number of buses to operate these services was calculated to be 630. In practice, the bus companies will need more than this minimum number to allow for maintenance, crew changeover, etc. Allowing for a 50% additional buses, the total number of buses that would need to meet the Euro VI standard if the LEZ was implemented is estimated to be approximately 950, which is consistent with the size of the National Express West Midlands fleets. Projected estimates of the National Express bus fleet operating from depots in Birmingham, Sandwell and Dudley in future years for the business as usual case without the Low Emission Zone have been made assuming that buses more than 15 years old are replaced by new buses each year. The projections assume that the buses have been upgraded to meet the Euro IV standard prior to implementation of the LEZ to meet the requirements of the SBQP.

2.7.3 Bus retrofit The bus retrofit scenario involves retrofitting Euro IV buses with Selective Catalytic Reduction systems. For this assessment, it was assumed that the cost of retrofitting SCR technology was £14,235 per bus19. Retrofitting this equipment can result in increases in fuel consumption, but it is usually most cost-effective to offset this by fitting a micro-hybrid electric fan to improve efficiency, at an additional cost of £4,00020. It was assumed that the electric fans will be fitted for this assessment. These assumptions on price are likely to result in an overestimation as current market prices are reported to be lower21. SCR retrofit may therefore be a more cost- effective option.UNRATIFIED Retrofitting of the buses will result in additional operating and maintenance costs. It was assumed that these are the same as those associated with the replacement of older buses

17 Department for Transport Clean Bus Technology Application Project BREATHE (Bus REtrofit: ATtenuating Harmful Emissions) 18 Department for Transport Clean Bus Technology Application Project BREATHE (Bus REtrofit: ATtenuating Harmful Emissions) 19 Department for Transport Clean Bus Technology Application Project BREATHE (Bus REtrofit: ATtenuating Harmful Emissions 20 Department for Transport Clean Bus Technology Application Project BREATHE (Bus REtrofit: ATtenuating Harmful Emissions

21 Personal communication, Andrew Whittles LES Ltd.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 15 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study with Euro VI buses (see above). It was also assumed that retrofitting SCR technology does not extend the life of the buses so that these additional costs do not apply beyond the normal life of the buses.

2.7.4 Bus replacement with CNG buses Some bus companies in the UK have considered replacing parts of their fleet with buses running on compressed natural gas (CNG). For example, Reading Buses have recently started operating a fleet of 20 CNG buses and have a further 34 on order. This section of the report considers the cost of implementing the Euro VI LEZ in 2018 with new CNG buses. It assumes that under the business as usual case the bus companies would adopt the policy of replacing buses (otherwise at the end of their operating lives) with CNG buses that meet the Euro VI standard. The assessment methodology is the same as that used for conventional bus replacement with the following additional assumptions. This assessment assumes a capital cost for a new CNG bus in 2018 of £180,000. It will also be necessary to provide sufficient gas compression capacity to supply the buses with fuel. A recent study for Bradford City Council22 considered the capital and operating costs for CNG plant to supply the Council’s fleet of vehicles. The estimated capital cost for a gas compression facility to supply 14,000 kg CNG per day was £2,710,000 including £265,000 civil engineering costs. We assume here that each bus will travel 160 miles per day and consume 0.4 kg CNG per km23 (0.64 kg per mile): each bus will consume 103 kg per day of operation. The capital cost of compression plant is thus estimated to be £19,937 per bus. This assessment assumes a base price for CNG of 39p per kg, based on the range of costs considered in the recent study for Bradford Council. Fuel duty of 24.7p per kg and compressor operating costs of 8 p per kg (electricity and maintenance) has been added to the base price: the Bus Service Operators Grant of 18.88 p per kg has been subtracted to give a net price of 52.82p per kg. The fuel cost per bus, operating 330 days per year is thus estimated to be £17,953. Bus operators using biogas may also be eligible for a grant of 6p per km under the Low Carbon Emission bus incentive scheme: it is assumed here that the additional cost of supplying biogas offsets the grant. The CNG bus will replace an existing bus running on . This assessment assumes that diesel fuel costs 115 p per litre (ex VAT) less the Bus Service Operators Grant of 34.57 p per litre and that each bus consumes 0.4 litres per km. The fuel cost per bus per year is thus estimated to be £27,338. The use of CNG thus results in a saving in fuel costs of £9,384 per year compared to diesel. There is currently no evidence that vehicle maintenance costs will be significantly different for gas vs diesel vehicles, and so no allowance for increased maintenance costs has been made in this assessment24.

2.7.5 Replacement of diesel cars with Euro 6 cars Replacing diesel cars with Euro 6 diesel cars in 2018 will result in additional capital costs for the car owners compared with the business as usual costs. The capital cost of a new diesel car depends on its specification. This assessment assumes a capital cost in 2018 of £20,000. The net capital cost of replacing vans in 2018 was calculated as the capital cost of a new van less the second hand price of the replaced vehicles and lessUNRATIFIED the business as usual capital cost. The 2018 capital costs have been

22 D. Scholfield and A. Whittles. Gas refuelling station feasibility study. LES Limited June 2013 23 HBEFA Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport v 3.2. 24C.Johnson . Business case for compressed natural gas in municipal fleets. National Renewable Energy Laboratory NREL/TP-7A2-47919, June 2010 http://www.afdc.energy.gov/pdfs/47919.pdf Also webinar http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/48981.pdf

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 16 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study discounted to a 2014 base year to allow comparison with the abatement costs and damage costs. The price of second-hand cars depends on their age, specification and condition. For this assessment, it has been assumed that the second-hand price may be estimated from:

where P is the new price, r=1/(1+d), d is the discount rate of 3.5%,m is the age of the vehicle and n is the life of the vehicle, assumed to be 15 years. New cars entering service in 2018 would be expected to continue operating for approximately 15 years until the end of 2032. Under the business as usual case, older cars would gradually be replaced throughout the period 2018-2032 with new cars that meet the Euro 6 standard or better. The capital cost for the business as usual replacement of diesel was calculated as the sum of the discounted equivalent annualised costs for the years of operation of the replacement vehicles in the period 2018-2032, assuming a discount rate of 3.5%. In effect, this assumes that the cost of new cars can be spread throughout their lifetime: the method allows the costs to be attributed consistently to the life of the cars replaced in 2018. The age profile of the car fleet in Birmingham was assumed to correspond to the age profile of cars in Great Britain in 201325. It was assumed for the assessment of replacement costs that the oldest fifteenth of the cars were replaced each year. It was assumed that replacing older cars with Euro 6 models would not increase operating and maintenance costs. There were 55,230 cars registered in Birmingham postal districts within or adjacent to the Middle Ring Road (B1-B12, B15, B16, B18, B19)26 in the second quarter of 2014 and it is assumed that there will be a similar number in 2018. The NAEI projections indicate that 30% of cars will be pre-Euro 6 diesels in 2018 (16,498). It is assumed that this number of cars will require replacement to meet the LEZ requirements.

2.7.6 LPG taxis and private hire vehicles Requiring Hackney cabs and private hire vehicles to run on Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) would require additional capital costs to convert or upgrade existing vehicles to LPG. The cost of converting a black cab to LPG is estimated to be £5,875 plus £300 for relocation of the spare wheel27. Private hire cars are typically large diesel cars. It is assumed here that the operators of private hire cars will trade in the diesel cars for petrol cars of similar age and convert the petrol cars to LPG. It is assumed that the cost of trade-in is small (£1000) because second-hand diesel cars cost more than the equivalent petrol car. The cost of converting a petrol car to LPG is typically £1200-150028. LPG fuel costs are typically 1.9 p per km (3 p per mile) less than diesel fuel costs for black cabs25. The saving for fuel costs for large cars is typically 1.3 p per km29. Assuming an annual mileage of 50,000 km indicates a fuel saving per year of £950 per year for a black cab and £640 per year for a private hire car. It was assumed that these savings would continue throughout the remaining life of the vehicle (maximum 15 years). Birmingham City Council provided details of the age profile of the 1,349 Hackney carriages and 4,970 private hire vehicles licensed to operate in Birmingham in January 2013. The vehicle age profileUNRATIFIED was compared with the default age profile for diesel passenger cars in the Emission Factor Toolkit. The Birmingham vehicle age profile lagged behind the default age

25 DfT Vehicle Statistics Table VEH0211 26 DfT Vehicle Statistics Table VEH0122 27 http://www.jaymic.com/lpgblackcabs/cco.asp

28 http://www.autogas.ltd.uk/conversion/lpg-conversions/

29 Based on HBEFA 3.2 emission factors, LPG costs £0.70 per litre; diesel costs £1.30 per litre

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 17 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study profile by approximately 4 years. The replacement cost for future years were therefore calculated assuming the Birmingham taxi fleet age profile continues to lag 4 years behind the default fleet. LPG is available from some existing service stations within Birmingham and so it has been assumed that additional infrastructure will not be required.

2.7.7 Replacement of Light Goods Vehicles with Euro 6 Requiring diesel Light Goods Vehicles (LGV) to meet the Euro 6 standard in the LEZ in 2018 would require the replacement of some older vehicles. It is estimated that there were 11,851 LGVs registered in Birmingham postal districts within or adjacent to the Middle Ring Road (B1-B12, B15, B16, B18, B19)30 in the second quarter of 2014. The NAEI projections indicate that 50% of LGVs will be pre-Euro 6 diesels in 2018 (5,950). It is assumed that this number of vans will require replacement to meet the LEZ requirements. The net capital cost of replacing vans in 2018 was calculated as the capital cost of a new van less the second hand price of the replaced vehicles and less the business as usual capital cost. The 2018 capital costs have been discounted to a 2014 base year to allow comparison with the abatement costs and damage costs. The capital cost of a new light goods vehicles depends on its specification. This assessment assumes a capital cost for a new van in 2018 of £35,000. The price of second-hand LGVs depends on the age, specification and condition of the vans. For this assessment, it has been assumed that the second-hand price may be estimated from:

where P is the new price, r=1/(1+d), d is the discount rate of 3.5%,m is the age of the vehicle and n is the life of the vehicle, assumed to be 12 years. New vans entering service in 2018 would be expected to continue operating for approximately 12 years until the end of 2029. Under the business as usual case, older vans would gradually be replaced throughout the period 2018-2029 with new vans that meet the Euro 6 standard or better. The capital cost for the business as usual replacement of vans was calculated as the sum of the discounted equivalent annualised costs for the years of operation of the replacement vehicles in the period 2018-2029, assuming a discount rate of 3.5%. In effect, this assumes that the cost of new vans can be spread throughout their lifetime: the method allows the costs to be attributed consistently to the life of the vans replaced in 2018. It was assumed that replacing older vans with Euro 6 models would not increase operating and maintenance costs.

2.7.8 Replacement of Heavy Goods Vehicles with Euro VI Requiring Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) to meet the Euro VI standard in the LEZ in 2018 would require the replacement of some older vehicles. It is estimated that there were 578 HGVs (462 rigid, 116 articulated) registered in Birmingham postal districts within or adjacent to the Middle Ring Road (B1-B12, B15, B16, B18, B19)31 in the second quarter of 2014. The NAEI projections indicate that 33% of rigid HGVs (151) and 15 % of articulated HGVs (18) will be pre-EuroUNRATIFIED VI diesels in 2018. It is assumed that this number of HGVs will require replacement to meet the LEZ requirements. HGVs based in postcodes within or adjacent to the ring road area would have to be replaced or upgraded to meet the higher standards specified for the LEZs. However, it was assumed

30 DfT Vehicle Statistics Table VEH0122 in conjunction with Table VEH0105 31 DfT Vehicle Statistics Table VEH0122 in conjunction with Table VEH0105

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 18 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study for this assessment that haulage companies with fleets based outside this area would be able to manage their operations using compliant vehicles at minimal additional cost. The change will result in  additional capital expenditure for the goods vehicle operator  additional operational costs (e.g. urea consumption in selective catalytic reduction)  additional maintenance costs.

The net capital cost of replacing HGVs in 2018 was calculated as the capital cost of a new HGV less the second hand price of the replaced vehicles and less the business as usual capital cost. The 2018 capital costs have been discounted to a 2014 base year to allow comparison with the abatement costs and damage costs. The capital cost of a new HGV depends on its specification. This assessment assumes a capital cost for a new articulated truck unit in 2018 of £80,000 and a capital cost for a rigid truck of £65,000. The price of second-hand HGVs depends on the age, specification and condition of the buses. Fig.2 shows the advertised prices of second-hand articulated tractor units (6x2) on trucklocator.co.uk on 2nd June 2014. Fig. 2 also shows the second-hand price function used in this assessment. Fig. 3 similarly shows the advertised prices of second-hand rigids (curtainsiders). Fig. 2: Second-hand articulated tractor unit prices, 2014

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Fig. 3: Second-hand rigid HGV prices, 2014

New rigid HGVs entering service in 2018 would be expected to continue operating for approximately 12 years until the end of 2029. Under the business as usual case, older HGVs would gradually be replaced throughout the period 2018-2029 with new HGVs that meet the Euro VI standard or better. The capital cost for the business as usual replacement of HGVs was calculated as the sum of the discounted equivalent annualised costs for the years of operation of the replacement vehicles in the period 2018-2029, assuming a discount rate of 3.5%. In effect, this assumes that the cost of new HGVs can be spread throughout their lifetime: the method allows the costs to be attributed consistently to the life of the HGVs replaced in 2018. New articulated HGVs entering service in 2018 would be expected to continue operation until the end of 2027. The capital cost of the business as usual case was estimated as above but taking account of the typical shorter operational life. Additional operational costs for replacing Euro I-Euro IV HGV with Euro VI vehicles were assumed to be £427 per year32, based on estimates of the additional use of urea in selective catalytic reduction. It was assumed that this cost would also be incurred by existing Euro V vehicles. The additional operating costs were assumed to apply also to HGVs replaced under the business as usual scenario. Additional maintenance costs for replacing Euro I-Euro IV vehicles with Euro VI were assumed to be £1000 per year33. It was assumed that this cost would also be incurred by existing Euro V HGVs. The additional operating costs were assumed to also apply to HGVs replaced under the business as usual scenario. 2.7.9 LEZ enforcementUNRATIFIED costs The enforcement of Low Emission Zones in Birmingham city centre would lead to additional costs for the Councils. Costs would be involved in setting up and operating the schemes. The bus emission reduction measures would apply primarily to bus companies providing scheduled services. The measures could be introduced as part of a revised Bus Statutory

32 Department for Transport Clean Bus Technology Application Project BREATHE (Bus REtrofit: ATtenuating Harmful Emissions) 33 Department for Transport Clean Bus Technology Application Project BREATHE (Bus REtrofit: ATtenuating Harmful Emissions)

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Quality Partnership Scheme. The enforcement costs for these measures would be small compared to the costs to the operators. Measures to limit emissions from Hackney Carriages and Private Hire Vehicles could similarly be enforced through the existing licensing scheme at little additional cost. Measures to reduce emissions in the LEZs from cars, heavy goods and light goods vehicles would require enforcement because some operators of these vehicles would otherwise ignore the restrictions on access. There are three main options for the enforcement of the LEZs:  Manual enforcement  Fixed Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras  Mobile ANPR cameras Manual enforcement involves enforcement personnel (e.g. traffic wardens) visually checking vehicles travelling within or parked within the scheme area for identification marks. In practice, for a scheme based on the vehicle Euro standards, identification can most easily be carried out on the basis of the vehicle registration mark on the number plate. The checks would tend to focus on older-looking vehicles and would use a mixture of manual recording and photography. Some post-checking against a database of compliant vehicles (e.g. from the DVLA) would then be necessary. Operators of retrofitted vehicles that meet the emissions criteria could be required to obtain exemptions and be issued with permits/stickers to show compliance. Manual checking of parked vehicles can be relatively effective but only a small proportion of the vehicles travelling through the LEZs can be checked by manual enforcement methods. Manual enforcement in Birmingham city centre is not likely to be effective because of the size of the proposed LEZ and the large volumes of traffic. ANPR systems use optical character recognition software to read camera images of vehicle license plates to identify vehicles and their owners. The cameras can be installed on roadside poles (Fixed ANPR) or in vehicles parked at the side of the road (Mobile ANPR). The recorded images of the vehicle number plates are compared with the DVLA database to identify non-compliant vehicles. ANPR systems are able to capture 90%+ of passing number plates. Fixed ANPR systems are relatively inflexible and cannot take account of drivers finding alternative routes through minor roads to avoid detection. Mobile ANPR systems are effective in deterring such behaviour. Examination of the Birmingham road network suggests the locations for fixed ANPR cameras listed in Table 2.8.

UNRATIFIED

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Table 2.8: Suggested locations for ANPR cameras needed to enforce the city centre LEZ Suggested ANPR camera locations Aston Expressway Stratford Road Morville Street Aston Road Sampson Road St Vincent Street W Lister Street Small Heath Way Ledsam Street Jennens Road Upper Conybere Street King Edwards Road Curzon Street Frank Street Sand Pits Montague Street Horton Square Camden Street Great Barr Street St Lukes Road Pope Street Little Barr Street Sherlock Street Carver Street Westley Street Bristol Street Warstone lane Adderley Street Spring Street Pitsford Street Coventry Road Bath Row Great Hampton Street Camp Hill Tennant Street Well Street Moseley Road Broad Street Summer Lane Leopold Street Friston Avenue New Town Row New John Street W

The cost of installing and operating ANPR systems depends to a considerable extent on the existing infrastructure. Start-up costs include the costs of the cameras, site preparation, signage, mounting structures and associated civil engineering, security provision, back office accommodation and equipment, and back office training. Operating costs include maintenance of the cameras and back office staff, accommodation and supervision costs. The existing infrastructure may already cover some of these aspects. For example, Bradford City Council have estimated an installation cost of £10,000 per camera for 15 cameras and operating costs associated with two full time staff equivalents, approximately £80,000 per year. The net present value (base 2014) of installing and operating 43 cameras in Birmingham over the period 2018-2026 is estimated on this basis to be £1.95 million. Cost estimates from other cities are often different. The Mayor of London Office for Policing and Crime estimated that the cost of setting up and running a system equivalent to the 1280 camera Transport for London network used for congestion charging was £32 million with annual revenue costs of £4.6 million34. The net present value (base 2014) of installing and operating 43 cameras in Birmingham over the period 2018-2026 is estimated pro rata to be £2.00 million. The cost of the ANPR system may be recovered to some extent from the revenue to theUNRATIFIED Council from Fixed Penalty Notices. However, the cost would still be borne by the populace at large.

34 http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/DMPCD%202013%20110%20Automatic%20Number%20Plate%20Recognition%20Part%201.pdf

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2.7.10 Summary of costs Table 2.9 shows the calculated costs (NPV base 2014) for each of the measures. It shows the capital cost of replacement vehicles and equipment resulting from the measure, the costs of vehicle replacement under the business as usual case and the return on second-hand sales. It also shows additional operating, maintenance and enforcement costs from the measures. Table 2.9 also lists the abatement and damage costs avoided as the result of the measures, for comparison. The abatement costs avoided in the city centre (the benefits) for the LPG taxis are greater than operator and enforcement costs. The reduced fuel costs for the operators is a significant factor. Similarly, the reduced fuel costs for the operators makes the early introduction of Euro VI buses running on compressed natural gas attractive. The abatement costs avoided in the city centre are substantially greater than the net costs to the bus operators. The costs to the operators resulting from the replacement of buses with standard Euro VI buses in 2018 are larger than the abatement costs avoided in the LEZ. However, it is possible that the measure will help to achieve compliance with the limit value for nitrogen dioxide at locations on bus routes outside the LEZ. The costs of replacement are less than the abatement costs avoided over the wider area so that the measure will provide a net benefit. Retrofitting of Selective Catalytic Reduction to Euro IV buses may also provide a net benefit when the abatement costs voided over the wider area are taken into account. The costs of the proposed measures for passenger cars, LGVs and HGVs are substantially greater than the abatement costs avoided and these measures do not currently appear attractive. The costs calculated do not include any potential fines that central government may pass down to Local Authorities through the Localism Act. Such fines would be levied on the UK government from the European Commission for failure to meet the air quality limit values under the Air Quality Directive (50/EC/2008).

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Table 2.9: Costs of 2018 measures

Net present value, £ million base year 2014 Cost Bus Bus Bus Cars Hackney Private Hire LGV HGV carriage Car Measure Euro VI SCR retrofit CNG Diesel Euro 6 LPG LPG Euro 6 Euro VI Number of vehicles 606 339 606 16,498 1,349 4,970 5,950 169 affected in 2018 Capital cost of measure 95.07 5.39 105.60 287.54 7.26 10.83 181.48 9.81 Capital cost, business as -60.99 0.00 -67.74 -160.12 0.00 0.00 -106.77 -6.66 usual, Return on second-hand sales -17.44 0.00 -17.44 -67.79 0.00 0.00 -41.19 -1.68 Additional operating cost 0.25 0.42 -21.18 0.00 -5.27 -16.50 0.00 0.02 Additional maintenance 0.38 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 Enforcement costs 0 0 0 1.99 0 0 1.99 1.99 Total 17.27 6.51 -0.76 61.61 1.99 -5.68 35.51 3.52 Abatement and damage costs 6.42 1.27 6.51 3.82 8.68 0.60 0.29 LEZ Abatement and damage costs 38.29 9.31 38.37 7.47 21.95 4.97 1.76 Wider area

UNRATIFIED Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 24 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

3 M6 Motorway

3.1 Introduction This section of the report considers a range of alternative scenarios options for diverting through traffic on the M6 onto the M6 toll road. The scenarios were selected by the project working group following consideration of the source apportionment studies presented in the base case report.

3.2 Scenarios Table 3.1 shows the Low Emission Zone scenarios identified by the project working group for the M6 motorway. The scenarios all consider diverting non-compliant through traffic via the M6 Toll. Table 3.1: Modelled motorway scenarios

Scenario Vehicle Scenario Option: traffic Reference Additional requirements (Sc1) Type diverted to M6 Toll Sc2.1 All All through traffic Consider if non-compliant vehicles exiting the M40 onto the Sc2.2 All All diesel powered through traffic M42 and transiting north on the All diesel powered through traffic M6 / M6 Toll Sc2.3 All M6 past the region could be unless Euro 6 / VI routed via the M6 Toll All diesel powered through traffic Sc2.4 All 35 unless Euro 6 / VI or Ecopass

Two cases were considered for each scenario. Thus scenario 2.1 considered traffic travelling from the M6 to the M6 north and southbound. Scenario 2.1a also considered traffic travelling to and from the M40 via the M42.

3.3 Emissions In order to estimate the impact of proposed Low Emission Zone measures on damage costs and abatement costs it is necessary to compare the emissions of pollutants with the measures against the “do nothing” alternative for the period that the measures have effect. The PRISM traffic model provided estimates of the traffic flows on roads throughout the region. The traffic model included estimates of the numbers of heavy goods vehicles that travelled from the M6 and M42 motorways via the M6 through the West Midlands to destinations beyond the M6/M6Toll junctions. For this assessment, it was assumed that the same proportions of other vehicles transit the M6. Table 3.2 shows the annual average daily traffic flows of vehicles diverted onto the toll road that were assumed for this assessment. UNRATIFIED Table 3.2: Annual average daily traffic flows of diverted vehicles

35 An Ecopass programme would set a toll for through traffic using the M6. Traffic meeting minimum emission standards (e.g. Euro 6/VI) would be exempt from the toll. The level of the toll would be set so that there was an incentive for through traffic to divert via the M6 Toll road.

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Bus and Motor Traffic route Traffic diverted Cars LGV HGV coach cycle 2018 All 12835 1248 1364 31 41 M6 Northbound Diesel 8856 1248 1364 31 0 Diesel

All 13484 1219 1332 33 43 M6 Northbound Diesel 9304 1219 1332 33 0 Diesel

Defra’s Emission Factor Toolkit version 6.0.2 was used to estimate the reduction in emissions from the M6 and the corresponding increase in emissions on the M6 toll road for each of the scenarios. Table 3.3 shows the emissions changes calculated for oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and carbon dioxide for the years 2018 and 2026. In each case, the emissions are slightly higher where the traffic is diverted onto the toll road, primarily because the route is slightly longer. UNRATIFIED

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Table3.3: Annual emissions from through traffic diverted onto the M6 toll 2018 emissions 2026 emissions Route Scenario CO , CO , NO , kg PM , kg PM , kg 2 NO , kg PM , kg PM , kg 2 x 2.5 10 tonnes x 2.5 10 tonnes All 81,806 3,645 5,592 44,466 46,638 3,014 5,017 40,980 M6 Northbound via M6 Diesel 80,519 3,128 4,723 36,798 45,811 2,458 4,097 34,702 Diesel < Euro 6/VI 64,855 1,799 2,505 14,525 9,245 200 301 1,629 All 99,697 3,869 5,871 48,527 57,964 3,128 5,184 45,076 M6 Northbound via toll road Diesel 98,710 3,341 4,983 40,123 57,620 2,558 4,240 38,127 Diesel < Euro 6/VI 79,677 1,975 2,705 16,204 11,834 215 319 1,857 All 69,335 3,069 4,706 38,002 49,216 3,160 5,256 43,909 M6 Southbound via M6 Diesel 68,330 2,653 4,006 31,772 44,658 2,397 3,990 34,586 Diesel < Euro 6/VI 54,931 1,507 2,094 12,310 8,924 189 284 1,557 All 82,166 3,240 4,922 41,041 58,866 3,271 5,419 47,544 M6 Southbound via toll road Diesel 81,364 2,815 4,206 34,283 53,915 2,486 4,119 37,407 Diesel < Euro 6/VI 65,547 1,638 2,244 13,559 10,936 201 299 1,740 All 40,305 1,742 2,668 20,364 22,520 1,418 2,363 18,665 M42 Northbound via M6 Diesel 39,600 1,464 2,201 16,262 22,085 1,137 1,898 15,505 Diesel < Euro 6/VI 32,115 889 1,238 7,535 4,552 99 150 802 All 50,466 1,885 2,855 22,761 28,619 1,499 2,488 20,991 M42 Northbound via toll road Diesel 49,924 1,596 2,369 18,172 28,432 1,206 2,001 17,423 Diesel < Euro 6/VI 40,555 993 1,361 7,918 5,956 108 161 930 All 47,079 2,014 3,082 23,791 26,698 1,671 2,784 22,459 M42 Southbound via M6 Diesel 46,313 1,701 2,557 19,134 26,243 1,352 2,255 18,832 Diesel < Euro 6/VI 37,530 1,026 1,426 8,084 5,364 114 172 936 All 56,230 2,123 3,217 25,786 32,060 1,726 2,864 24,378 M42 Southbound via toll road Diesel 55,627 1,804 2,681 20,736 31,834 1,400 2,323 20,425 Diesel < Euro 6/VI 45,138 1,111 1,524 8,911 6,595 122 181 1,044 UNRATIFIED Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 27 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

3.4 Damage costs Damage costs are one way of approximating the impacts of changes in air pollution. These values measure the marginal external costs caused by each additional tonne of pollutant emitted – or conversely the benefits of reducing a pollutant emitted by one tonne, and can be used to value the benefits of air quality impacts of certain policies or projects when the only information available is the amount (in tonnes) of pollutant that is reduced. The damage costs avoided as the result of the proposed measures over the period 2018-2026 were calculated using Defra’s Damage Cost Calculator. Table 3.4 shows the reduction in damage costs as the result of diverting through traffic from the M6 and the corresponding increase in damage costs from the traffic on the toll road. The Table also shows the net damage costs avoided. The damage cost calculator takes account of the population density when calculating damage costs for particulate matter: it was assumed for this assessment that the route of the M6 passes through an outer conurbation area while the toll road passes through a rural area. The damage costs are shown for a base year of 2014. Table 3.4 shows that the measures result in increased damage costs for oxides of nitrogen and carbon dioxide, primarily as the result of the increased length of the route. However, the calculated damage costs for particulate matter are reduced as the result of the measures because the toll road passes through a less densely populated area. The reduction for particulate matter outweighs the increases associated with oxides of nitrogen and carbon dioxide emissions so that there is an overall reduction in damage costs. Table 3.4: Damage costs from measures Damage costs £(2014) million M6 reduction Toll road increase

Diverted Net Measure NO PM CO NO PM CO from x 2 x 2 M6 Northbound 0.56 3.50 10.08 0.68 0.75 11.04 1.66 M6 Southbound 0.51 3.28 9.63 0.61 0.70 10.42 1.70 M 42 0.27 1.66 4.60 0.34 0.36 5.16 0.67 Northbound All M 42 0.32 1.93 5.45 0.38 0.41 5.91 1.00 Southbound Total 1.66 10.37 29.76 2.01 2.22 32.53 5.03 M6 Northbound 0.55 2.91 8.43 0.68 0.62 9.23 1.35 M6 Southbound 0.49 2.63 7.81 0.58 0.56 8.44 1.35 M 42 0.27 1.35 3.74 0.34 0.30 4.20 0.53 Northbound Diesel M 42 0.31 1.59 4.47 0.38 0.34 4.85 0.81 Southbound Total 1.61 8.48 24.46 1.98 1.82 26.71 4.04 M6 Northbound 0.32 0.94 1.94 0.40 0.21 2.17 0.43 M6 Southbound 0.28 0.80 1.66 0.33 0.18 1.84 0.40 M 42 Diesel < Euro 0.16 0.47 1.00 0.20 0.10 1.06 0.26 Northbound 6/VI M 42 UNRATIFIED 0.19 0.54 1.08 0.23 0.12 1.20 0.27 Southbound Total 0.95 2.74 5.69 1.16 0.61 6.26 1.35

3.5 Compliance assessment The WP1a report considered the effect of the proposed measures on concentrations of nitrogen dioxide at locations close to the M6 and the M6 toll road. Modelled concentrations in

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2018 exceeded the statutory limit of 40 µg m-3 at several pollution hot spots close to the M6. The modelled concentrations were smaller in 2026 but the highest concentrations were still close to the limit value at some locations. On the other hand, the modelling showed that the concentrations would be less than the limit value at relevant locations close to the toll road in 2018 and 2026 for all scenarios.

3.6 Abatement costs avoided The abatement costs avoided as the result of the proposed measures were calculated for the M6 measures in the same way as those for Birmingham City centre, described in Section 2. The abatement costs were calculated for the period 2018-2026 because WP1a modelling showed that nitrogen dioxide concentrations would continue to exceed the limit value over this period. The abatement costs avoided were only calculated for the M6 because the modelled concentrations were less than the limit value for relevant locations close to the toll road. Table 3.5 shows the calculated abatement costs avoided for the measures (base 2014). It shows the costs calculated for the recommended default unit abatement cost of £29,150 per tonne of oxides of nitrogen and upper and lower bounds of £28,000 and £73,000 per tonne. The table also shows the total abatement and damage costs avoided by the measures based on the default unit abatement cost. Table 3.5: Abatement costs avoided by diverting traffic onto the toll road Abatement costs avoided £(2014) million Diverted Route through traffic £29,150 £28,000 £73,000 Including damage costs M6 Northbound 13.05 12.53 34.02 14.15 M6 Southbound 11.97 11.50 31.21 13.16 M 42 Northbound All 6.38 6.13 16.65 6.78 M 42 Southbound 7.50 7.20 19.54 8.17 Total 38.90 37.36 101.41 42.27 M6 Northbound 12.83 12.33 33.46 13.64 M6 Southbound 11.44 10.98 29.81 12.29 M 42 Northbound Diesel 6.27 6.02 16.35 6.54 M 42 Southbound 7.37 7.08 19.22 7.86 Total 37.91 36.41 98.83 40.33 M6 Northbound 7.73 7.42 20.15 7.83 M6 Southbound 6.65 6.39 17.34 6.77 M 42 Northbound Diesel < Euro 6/VI 3.82 3.67 9.97 3.92 M 42 Southbound 4.47 4.30 11.66 4.55 Total 22.68 21.78 59.12 23.08 3.7 CostUNRATIFIED of measures The cost of the measures to vehicle operators has been assessed on the basis of the additional toll costs and the additional cost of fuel associated with the longer route. It is uncertain whether the use of the M6 toll will continue to reduce journey times when the measures are in place and so no attempt has been made to value time savings. The measures will also result in additional enforcement costs.

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3.7.1 Toll costs M6 Toll costs are currently £5.50 for cars and £11.00 for light goods, heavy goods and coaches during the weekday day time. Table 3.6 shows the net present value (base 2014) of the toll costs for the diverted traffic over the period 2018-2026 calculated on the basis of current toll charges. Table 3.6: Net present value of toll costs and fuel costs for diverted traffic NPV Fuel cost Diverted through NPV toll costs 2018- Route £(2014) million traffic 2026, £(2014) million

M6 Northbound 253.4 11.41 M6 Southbound 220.3 9.29 All M 42 Northbound 128.9 6.61 M 42 Southbound 154.3 5.48 M6 Northbound 196.9 9.44

M6 Southbound 172.6 7.44 M 42 Northbound 98.2 5.36 Diesel M 42 Southbound 118.3 4.47 M6 Northbound 59.0 2.78 M6 Southbound 48.5 2.09 Diesel < Euro 6/VI M 42 Northbound 30.7 0.73 M 42 Southbound 36.3 1.36

It is possible that the operators of the M6 Toll Road, Midlands Expressway Limited, would be able to reduce the toll charges per vehicle if there was a regulatory requirement for vehicles to use the toll road because of the additional revenue generated from the diverted traffic. However, Midlands Expressway Limited has historically produced an operating loss of typically £20-50 million per year.36 It is unlikely that it will be acceptable to Midlands Expressway Limited to reduce the charges substantially while the company makes a loss. The company would need approximately £30 million additional revenue from the diverted traffic per year to break even: the net present value of this over the period 2018-2026 would be £172 million, which might be considered to be an effective upper bound to the toll costs of the measures.

3.7.2 Fuel costs Diverting vehicles from the M6 onto the toll road will result in additional fuel costs because the toll road route is slightly longer. The additional cost was calculated from the carbon dioxide emissions assuming an emission factor of 2.6569 kg carbon dioxide per litre of diesel and assuming a cost of £1.08 per litre (excluding VAT). Table 3.6 also shows the net present value of the additional fuel costs over the period 2018-2026.

3.7.3 Enforcement costs The enforcement of Low Emission Zones in on the M6 would lead to additional costs for Highways EnglandUNRATIFIED and the Councils. Costs would be involved in setting up and operating the scheme. There are already many Automatic Number Plate Recognition cameras installed on gantries on the M6: it is assumed that these cameras can also be used to enforce the Low Emission Zone at minimal cost.

36 Midlands Expressway Limited annual reports and financial statements.

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The cost of operating the scheme will depend to a large extent on the numbers of vehicles and the degree of automation. The Mayor of London Office for Policing and Crime estimated that the annual revenue cost of running a system equivalent to the Transport for London network was £4.6 million37. The Transport for London Network identifies 650,000-700,000 vehicles per day: the M6 system would need to identify approximately 250,000 vehicles per day (twice the annual average daily traffic). Pro rata this suggests that annual revenue costs for the M6 would be £1.7 million. The net present value (base 2014) of operating the scheme would be £1.7m which scaled between the following years of 2018 and 2026 would be £11.7 million.

3.8 Comparison of abatement costs avoided and scheme costs The additional toll costs for vehicle operators associated with diverting through traffic from the M6 onto the M6 toll road substantially exceed the benefits from abatement and damage costs avoided. However, the M6 Toll would gain more revenue with this measure and there will be an economic benefit of decreased journey time, which is important for the haulage sector when using the M6 Toll compared to the M6 as the Toll is more free flowing with shorter journey times on average.

UNRATIFIED

37 http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/DMPCD%202013%20110%20Automatic%20Number%20Plate%20Recognition%20Part%201.pdf

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4 Health Impact Assessment

4.1 Introduction This section considers the impacts of the proposed measures on the health of the West Midlands resident population. It first provides a profile of the community and its baseline health status. It then consider the impact of reductions in air pollution resulting from the proposed measures in the context of the expected reductions in the absence of the measures.

4.2 Community profile In order to understand the scale and significance of any health impacts associated with the proposed measures, it will be necessary to have an understanding of the existing health status of affected communities. Potential impacts of the proposals will potentially be unevenly distributed within affected communities and it is therefore important to understand who will benefit most from positive health effects resulting from the proposals, and who may incur the greatest disbenefits. This will enable any interventions to maximise benefits or minimise disbenefits to be appropriately focussed.

4.2.1 Overview of local population Table 4.1 shows the number of people by sex that are usually resident in the West Midlands Metropolitan Districts and the neighbouring local authorities that are potentially affected by the proposed measures. Table 4.1 also shows the numbers of residents and households within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road and within 2 km of the M6 or M6 Toll. Table 4.2 shows a breakdown of the age distribution in relevant areas. Birmingham Metropolitan District has a slightly higher proportion of children and a lower proportion of people more than 65 years old than other parts of West Midlands. Districts close to the M6 Toll road (i.e. Lichfield and North Warwickshire) have a relatively high proportion of people who are more than 65 years old. Table 4.3 shows a breakdown of economic activity of people based on the 2011 census. The breakdown of activity in the each of the local authorities broadly follows the pattern for the West Midlands generally. However, there is a relatively high proportion of unemployed people in Birmingham, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton and a relatively high proportion of retired people in Dudley, Solihull, Lichfield, North Warwickshire and South Staffordshire. Table 4.4 shows the 2010 Indices of Deprivation for Income Deprivation (percentage of the population in low income households reliant on benefits), Child Poverty (percentage aged 0- 15 in income-deprived households) and Older People in Deprivation (percentage of people over 60 who live in pension credit households) for relevant local authority areas38. Birmingham, UNRATIFIEDSandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton have relatively high levels of deprivation whereas Solihull, Lichfield, North Warwickshire and South Staffordshire have relatively low levels of deprivation.

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Table 4.1: Usual population, 2011 census All Usual Area Area type Males Females Households Residents Metropolitan Birmingham 1,073,045 527,806 545,239 410,736 District Metropolitan Coventry 316,960 157,621 159,339 128,592 District Metropolitan Dudley 312,925 153,819 159,106 129,867 District Metropolitan Sandwell 308,063 151,592 156,471 121,498 District Metropolitan Solihull 206,674 100,352 106,322 86,056 District Metropolitan Walsall 269,323 132,319 137,004 107,822 District Metropolitan Wolverhampton 249,470 123,441 126,029 102,177 District Metropolitan West Midlands 2,736,460 1,346,950 1,389,510 1,086,748 Districts Cannock Chase Local Authority 97,462 48,126 49,336 40,664 Lichfield Local Authority 100,654 49,920 50,734 41,224 North Warwickshire Local Authority 62,014 30,604 31,410 25,812 South Staffordshire Local Authority 108,131 53,243 54,888 44,458

West Midlands Region 5.601,847 2,763,187 2,838,660 2,294,909 England 53,012,456 26,069,148 26,943,308 22,063,368 Middle Ring Birmingham 38,242 20,848 17,634 17,609 Road Area M6/M6 Toll Within 2 km 497,952 243,101 254,851 195,072

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Table 4.2: Age distribution Age range Local Authority 0-15 16-64 65+ 30+ <1 6-12 5-14 5-19 Birmingham 22.8% 64.3% 12.9% 54.4% 1.5% 9.5% 13.8% 21.3% Coventry 19.8% 65.6% 14.6% 56.3% 1.5% 7.9% 11.4% 19.1% Dudley 19.0% 62.4% 18.6% 64.1% 1.2% 8.0% 11.7% 18.0% Sandwell 21.5% 63.3% 15.2% 59.0% 1.4% 8.8% 12.8% 19.4% Solihull 19.0% 61.9% 19.2% 65.3% 1.1% 8.2% 12.0% 18.5% Walsall 20.9% 62.1% 17.0% 60.8% 1.4% 8.7% 12.7% 19.3% Wolverhampton 19.8% 63.9% 16.3% 60.4% 1.4% 8.1% 11.8% 18.5%

Cannock Chase 18.9% 65.0% 16.1% 63.7% 1.2% 7.8% 11.6% 18.0% Lichfield 17.5% 62.4% 20.1% 67.7% 1.1% 7.5% 11.1% 16.9% North Warwickshire 17.7% 64.0% 18.4% 67.1% 1.1% 7.7% 11.2% 17.1% South Staffordshire 16.3% 62.9% 20.8% 68.6% 0.8% 7.1% 10.6% 16.7%

West Midlands 19.5% 63.6% 16.9% 61.9% 1.3% 8.2% 11.9% 18.5% England 18.9% 64.8% 16.3% 62.4% 1.3% 7.8% 11.4% 17.7%

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Table 4.3 Employment and unemployment status of residents

Economic status Birmingham Coventry Dudley Sandwell Solihull Walsall Wolverhampton Chase Cannock Lichfield North Warwickshire South Staffordshire Midlands West England

All Usual Residents Aged 16 to 760,252 231,871 226,726 219,508 148,360 191,974 179,983 72,274 74,757 46,170 80,718 4,067,119 38,881,374 74 Economically Active; Employee; 12.7 12.9 15 13.6 14.6 14 13.5 15.2 14.6 14.6 15.1 14 13.7 Part-Time Economically Active; Employee; 33.1 36.5 38.2 37.1 39.9 35.3 35.5 39.9 38.6 41.1 38.4 37.4 38.6 Full-Time Economically Active; Self- 6.9 6.2 7.5 6 9.2 7.3 6.3 8.7 10.4 10.2 10.5 8.5 9.8 Employed Economically Active; 7.1 5.4 5.3 7.3 4.2 6.8 7.8 4.6 3.4 3.6 3.3 5.1 4.4 Unemployed Economically Active; Full-Time 4.4 5.4 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.3 3.4 Student Economically Inactive; Retired 10.7 12 16.2 13 16.2 15 13.2 14.9 18.6 16.5 18.3 14.4 13.7 Economically Inactive; Student 9.7 10.4 4.3 5.3 4.4 5 6.1 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.9 5.9 5.8 (Including Full-Time Students) Economically Inactive; Looking 6.4 4.3 4.6 5.9 3.7 5.8 5.3 4.2 3.5 3.3 3.2 4.6 4.4 After Home or Family Economically Inactive; Long- 5.3 4.5 4.4 5.8 3.3 5.2 5.4 4.7 3 3.5 2.8 4.4 4 Term Sick or Disabled Economically Inactive; Other 3.7 2.4 2 3.2 1.5 2.9 3.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 2 2.4 2.2 Unemployed; Age 16 to 24 2 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.4 2.1 2.2 1.5 1 1.1 1 1.5 1.2 Unemployed; Age 50 to 74 1.1 0.8 1 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 Unemployed; Never Worked 1.8 1 0.9 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 Long-Term Unemployed 2.9 2.1 2.4 3.2 1.7 3 3.5 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.7 UNRATIFIED Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 36 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 4.4 Indices of Deprivation for relevant local authorities Older people in Local Authority Income deprivation Child poverty deprivation Birmingham 26.2 37.4 31.5 Coventry 18.9 28.5 25.0 Dudley 16.9 23.1 21.6 Sandwell 24.7 33.1 33.0 Solihull 11.6 15.9 14.7 Walsall 22.1 30.1 26.3 Wolverhampton 23.8 33.5 28.3 Cannock Chase 13.9 17.9 21 Lichfield 9.5 12.7 12.9 North Warwickshire 10.7 10.2 14.7 South Staffordshire 9.4 11.5 14.7 England 14.7 21.8 18.1

4.3 Baseline health status

4.3.1 General health and life expectancy Table 4.5 shows the life expectancy at birth for residents of each of the local authorities39. The lowest life expectancy is in Sandwell and Wolverhampton: the highest is in Solihull and South Staffordshire. Table 4.5: Life expectancy at birth Local Authority Male Female Birmingham 77.2 81.9 Coventry 77.5 81.8 Dudley 78.5 82.7 Sandwell 76.2 81.1 Solihull 80.6 84.3 Walsall 77.4 82.1 Wolverhampton 77.0 81.4 Cannock Chase 77.9 82.3 Lichfield 79.4 82.5 North Warwickshire 78.3 82.3 South Staffordshire 79.6 82.9 England 78.9 82.8

Table 4.6 shows the percentages of people in general health categories that were reported to the 2011 census in relevant areas. The general health levels reported in each of the local authority areasUNRATIFIED are similar to those reported throughout England.

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Table 4.6: Proportion of people reporting good and bad health

General health category All Usual Local authority Residents Very Good Fair Bad Very Bad Good

Health Health Health Health

Health Birmingham 1,073,045 45.5% 33.9% 13.9% 5.0% 1.6% Coventry 316,960 46.0% 34.6% 13.3% 4.7% 1.4% Dudley 312,925 42.4% 35.8% 15.3% 5.1% 1.4% Sandwell 308,063 41.9% 34.8% 15.6% 5.9% 1.8% Solihull 206,674 47.5% 34.2% 13.1% 4.0% 1.2% Walsall 269,323 42.2% 35.1% 15.5% 5.6% 1.7% Wolverhampton 249,470 41.8% 35.3% 15.7% 5.5% 1.7% Cannock Chase 97,462 43.7% 35.0% 14.5% 5.3% 1.5% Lichfield 100,654 46.9% 34.8% 13.2% 3.9% 1.2% North Warwickshire 62,014 45.1% 34.8% 14.1% 4.6% 1.4% South Staffordshire 108,131 45.3% 35.5% 13.8% 4.1% 1.3% West Midlands 5,601,847 45.1% 34.8% 14.0% 4.7% 1.4% England 53,012,456 47.2% 34.2% 13.1% 4.2% 1.2%

4.3.2 Mortality Table 4.7 shows Public Health England’s estimates of the numbers of deaths 2008-2012 according to cause in the relevant local authority areas40. Table 4.8 shows the yearly rates of mortality. The lowest rate of all-cause mortality is in Birmingham and the highest is in South Staffordshire. The highest rates of mortality from respiratory diseases are in Dudley and Sandwell.

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Table 4.7: Number of deaths, 2008-2012

Coronary All Respiratory Local authority All Cancer Heart Stroke Circulatory disease Disease disease Birmingham 41,242 11,067 11,966 5,873 3,132 5,843 Coventry 13,453 3,693 3,669 1,601 927 1,938 Dudley 14,771 4,272 4,244 1,923 1,150 2,231 Sandwell 14,411 3,851 4,207 2,023 1,080 2,232 Solihull 9,094 2,820 2,582 1,162 716 1,221 Walsall 12,304 3,495 3,712 1,839 911 1,738 Wolverhampton 12,094 3,262 3,576 1,605 956 1,715 Cannock Chase 4,185 1,241 1,230 598 314 561 Lichfield 4,868 1,321 1,472 676 427 613 North 3,026 846 920 440 236 399 Warwickshire South 5,472 1,583 1,572 694 429 680 Staffordshire England 2,315,661 651,010 686,806 320,773 178,673 327,787

Table 4.8: Mortality rates per thousand usual residents per year

Coronary All Respiratory Local authority All Cancer Heart Stroke Circulatory disease Disease disease Birmingham 7.69 2.06 2.23 1.09 0.58 1.09 Coventry 8.49 2.33 2.32 1.01 0.58 1.22 Dudley 9.44 2.73 2.71 1.23 0.74 1.43 Sandwell 9.36 2.50 2.73 1.31 0.70 1.45 Solihull 8.80 2.73 2.50 1.12 0.69 1.18 Walsall 9.14 2.60 2.76 1.37 0.68 1.29 Wolverhampton 9.70 2.62 2.87 1.29 0.77 1.37 Cannock Chase 8.59 2.55 2.52 1.23 0.64 1.15 Lichfield 9.67 2.62 2.92 1.34 0.85 1.22 North 9.76 2.73 2.97 1.42 0.76 1.29 Warwickshire South 10.12 2.93 2.91 1.28 0.79 1.26 Staffordshire England 8.74 2.46 2.59 1.21 0.67 1.24

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4.3.3 Infant deaths Table 4.9 shows the numbers of post-neonatal infant deaths recorded in 201241. The rates of post-neonatal death in Birmingham, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton are relatively high compared to the rest of the West Midlands. Table 4.9: Post neonatal infant deaths, 2012 Infant deaths (post Live births Rate/1000 live births neonatal) Birmingham 17,766 122 6.9 Coventry 4,731 20 4.2 Dudley 3,966 19 4.8 Sandwell 5,151 38 7.4 Solihull 2,268 9 Walsall 3,816 26 6.8 Wolverhampton 3,539 28 7.9 West Midlands (met 41,237 262 6.4 county) Cannock Chase 1,174 4 Lichfield 979 4 North Warwickshire 688 1 South Staffordshire 933 2 West Midlands 73,940 406 5.5 England 694,241 2,870 4.2 Rate not shown for fewer than 10 infant deaths

4.3.4 Emergency hospital admissions Table 4.10 shows Public Health England’s estimates of the numbers of emergency hospital admissions for coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for 2008/9-2011/12 for the usual residents of relevant local authority areas42. Table 4.11 shows these admissions as the admission rate per 100,000 usual residents.

UNRATIFIED

41 Mortality Statistics: Deaths Registered by Area of Usual Residence, 2012 Registrations

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Table 4.10: Emergency hospital admissions, 2008/9-2012/13 Coronary Mycardial All Heart Stroke COPD Infarction Disease Birmingham 597,340 13,777 6,598 4,869 12,171 Coventry 159,047 3,106 1,835 1,768 3,756 Dudley 158,886 3,773 1,931 1,596 3,563 Sandwell 175,601 4,002 1,994 1,841 4,111 Solihull 133,070 2,744 1,493 946 2,121 Walsall 128,041 4,416 2,063 1,981 3,657 Wolverhampton 135,736 2,832 1,792 1,440 2,654 Cannock Chase 46,963 1,572 671 729 1,082 Lichfield 43,891 1,460 776 597 894 North 25,977 833 463 380 573 Warwickshire South 47,087 1,303 776 687 838 Staffordshire England 25,623,623 706,513 368,284 312,427 552,386

Table 4.11: Emergency hospital admission rates per year per 100,000 usual residents, 2008/2009-2012/2013 Coronary Mycardial All Heart Stroke COPD Infarction Disease Birmingham 11,134 257 123 91 227 Coventry 10,036 196 116 112 237 Dudley 10,155 241 123 102 228 Sandwell 11,400 260 129 120 267 Solihull 12,877 266 144 92 205 Walsall 9,508 328 153 147 272 Wolverhampton 10,882 227 144 115 213 Cannock Chase 9,637 323 138 150 222 Lichfield 8,721 290 154 119 178 North 8,378 269 149 123 185 Warwickshire South 8,709 241 144 127 155 Staffordshire England 9,667 267 139 118 208

4.4 HealthUNRATIFIED impacts associated with air pollution The WHO Regional Office for Europe coordinated two international projects (“Review of evidence on health aspects of air pollution – REVIHAAP” and “Health risks of air pollution in Europe – HRAPIE”) to provide the European Commission (EC) and its stakeholders with evidence-based advice on the health aspects of air pollution. This advice is grounded on a review of the latest scientific evidence on the health effects of all pollutants regulated in EC directives. The review was conducted by a large group of invited

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 41 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study experts from eminent institutions across the world. The HRAPIE experts produced a report43 that recommended concentration–response functions for key pollutants. This section applies relevant concentration-response functions to assess the impact of the proposed measures on human health. The main aim of the proposed measures is to reduce nitrogen dioxide concentrations and so this report focusses on health outcomes associated with nitrogen dioxide. However, the measures also affect emissions of particulate matter, PM2.5 and so a range of outcomes for this pollutant are also considered. Thus this report considers the following pollutant-outcome pairs:  Long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide on all-cause mortality  Long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide on the prevalence of bronchitis in asthmatic children  Short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases  Long-term exposure to particulate matter, PM2.5 on all-cause mortality  Short-term exposure to particulate matter, PM2.5 on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases  Short-term exposure to particulate matter, PM2.5 on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases  Short-term exposure to particulate matter, PM2.5 on the number of Restricted Activity Days (RADs)  Short-term exposure to particulate matter, PM2.5 on workdays lost The HRAPIE experts classified the pollutant–outcome pairs into two categories:  Group A: pollutant–outcome pairs for which enough data are available to enable reliable quantification of effects;  Group B: pollutant–outcome pairs for which there is more uncertainty about the precision of the data used for quantification of effects Information on the classification of the pollutant-outcome pairs used in this assessment is provided below. The concentration-response functions are used variously to calculate the numbers of deaths, hospital admissions, etc. attributable to air pollution. It is stressed that the calculated number of, for example, attributable deaths does not represent the number of individuals whose length of life has been shortened by air pollution. Exposure to air pollution is understood to be a contributory factor to deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular disease i.e. unlikely to be the sole cause of deaths in individuals. This means that air pollution contributes a small amount to the deaths of a large number of exposed individuals rather than being solely responsible for the number of deaths equivalent to the calculated figure of attributable deaths. Similarly, air pollution contributes a small amount to the other outcomes for a large number of individuals rather than being the sole cause for these outcomes in a small number of individuals. UNRATIFIED

43 World Health Organization (2013). Health risks of air pollution in Europe –HRAPIE project: Recommendations for concentration–response functions for cost–benefit analysis of particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide

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In order to assess the impact of the proposed measures on health outcomes, it is necessary to estimate their effect on population-weighted average concentrations over relevant areas. The LADSUrban model for the West Midlands was used to predict nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter concentrations. The model was described in the WP1 report: the WP1 report provided a comparison of measured and modelled concentrations to verify the model predictions. The WP1a report provides further verification of the model for the area within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road. The WP1a report provides model predictions for receptors close to the affected roads. For this health impact, the model was used to predict concentrations for 2011, 2018 and 2026 at each residential postcode location (e.g. B1 1BA), based on accurate postcode locations provided by Ordnance Survey Codepoint data. The 2011 Census provided details of the number of people living in each postcode. Population-weighted average concentrations were calculated be weighting the predicted concentration in each postcode by the number of people living in the postcode. The model was used to predict the “business as usual” concentrations for 2011, 2018 and 2026 for each of the West Midlands metropolitan districts. The model also predicted the effect of measures applied within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road at postcode locations within the Middle Ring Road. The effect of measures to divert traffic onto the M6 Toll was assessed at residential postcode locations that were within 2000 m of the M6 and M6 Toll between the M6/M6 Toll junctions, including postcode locations within Cannock Chase, Lichfield, North Warwickshire and South Staffordshire districts. The model predicts annual mean concentrations: these are appropriate for assessing the effects of long-term exposure. They are also appropriate for assessing the effects of short- term exposure if the concentration response function is linear: all the short-term concentration-response functions used in this assessment are linear.

4.4.1 Effects of exposure to nitrogen dioxide The HRAPIE experts recommended the assessment of the impacts of long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide on all-cause mortality in adult populations (age 30+) and the prevalence of bronchitic symptoms in asthmatic children aged 5–14 years. The HRAPIE report provides a linear concentration response function (CRF) for all-cause mortality, with Relative Risk (RR) of 1.055 (with a 95% confidence interval 1.040-1.083) per 10 μg m-3. The impacts should be calculated for annual average concentrations above 20 µg m-3. The HRAPIE experts classified this pollutant-outcome pair in Group B. The HRAPIE report notes that there is some potential for overlapping and double counting of the effects of PM2.5 exposure. It is customary to calculate the mortality attributable to air pollution only for adults aged 30 years or more. However, the proportion of deaths below the age of 30 is so small that using the total across all ages leads only to a slightly larger estimate. All age mortality, shown in Table 4.8 has been used in this assessment. The HRAPIE report also provides a concentration response function (RR 1.021 per µg m-3 change) for estimating the effects of changes in long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide on the prevalence of chronic bronchitis in asthmatic children aged 5-14. Annex 3 of the HRAPIE report provides details of the assessment methodology. The HRAPIE experts classified this pollutant-outcomeUNRATIFIED pair in Group B. There is some uncertainty about the classification of asthmatic children: the concentration-response function relates to the prevalence of “asthma ever”, with a recommended percentage prevalence in Western Europe, including UK, of 15.8%. There is also some uncertainty in the prevalence of bronchitic symptoms in asthmatic children: the HRAPIE experts suggested that 38.7% of asthmatic children would show symptoms in a year. These default estimates have been used in this assessment. The HRAPIE experts also recommended the assessment of the effects of short-term exposure (24-hour) to nitrogen dioxide on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases (IC-10

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 43 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study codes J00-J99). The HRAPIE report provides a linear concentration response function (CRF) for respiratory hospital admissions, with Relative Risk (RR) of 1.018 (with a 95% confidence interval 1.0115-1.0245) per 10 μg m-3. The HRAPIE experts classified this pollutant-outcome pair in Group A. The HRAPIE relative risk is larger and based on more extensive evidence than that used by the Interdepartmental Group on Costs and Benefits in its economic analysis to inform the air quality strategy44 (1.005 per 10 µg m-3). There were 782,432 hospital admissions for respiratory diseases (1C-10 codes J00-J99) 45 in England in 2011-12 among a population of 53,012,456. This assessment has used this admission rate pro-rata in the West Midlands. Table 4.12 shows the estimated number of deaths per year that are attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution, the reduction in the prevalence of chronic bronchitis in asthmatic children compared to the 2011 baseline, and the number of respiratory hospital admissions for each of the West Midlands metropolitan boroughs for the “business as usual” case for 2011, 2018, 2026. It is estimated that 906 deaths in the West Midlands metropolitan districts were attributable to nitrogen dioxide pollution in 2011. The number decreases substantially in future years under the “business as usual” case primarily as the result in emissions reductions from motor vehicles. The 20 µg m-3 threshold for the concentration-response function for this pollutant-outcome has a substantial effect on the calculated reduction in the number of attributable deaths because the concentration falls below the threshold at increasing numbers of receptors in future years. It is estimated that the reduction in emissions between 2011 and 2026 under the business as usual case will reduce the number of asthmatic children showing chronic bronchitis symptoms each year by 1,946. It is also estimated that there were 1,896 hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in 2011 in West Midlands metropolitan districts attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution. The estimated number of attributable hospital admissions will decrease by 27% between 2011 and 2026 under the business as usual case.

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44 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/an-economic-analysis-to-inform-the-air-quality-strategy

45The Health and Social Care Information Centre, Hospital Episode Statistics for England. Inpatient statistics, 2011-12.

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Table 4.12: Numbers of deaths, asthmatic children with bronchitic symptoms and respiratory hospital admissions attributable to nitrogen dioxide pollution under the business as usual case Deaths per year attributable to Prevalence of chronic bronchitis in Respiratory hospital nitrogen dioxide air pollution asthmatic children admissions per year

2011 2018 2026 Base Reduction 2011 2018 2026 2011 2018 2026 Birmingham 371 175 59 9,055 0 525 873 774 648 563 Coventry 70 21 4 2,209 0 101 164 200 171 152 Dudley 72 21 3 2,239 0 101 166 195 166 148 Sandwell 147 71 22 2,411 0 155 252 231 191 165 Solihull 62 24 7 1,516 0 80 130 138 116 102 Walsall 107 43 10 2,091 0 133 215 193 158 136 Wolverhampton 78 29 7 1,800 0 90 147 165 139 123

West Midlands metropolitan 906 383 112 21,322 - 1,184 1,946 1,896 1,589 1,388 districts

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Table 4.13 shows the effect of measures within Birmingham Middle Ring Road on the numbers of deaths, asthmatic children with chronic bronchitis symptoms and respiratory hospital admissions attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution. Table 4.13 shows the numbers of attributable deaths etc. for a range of scenarios relating to the composition of the bus fleet operating in the Middle Rig Road area. It also shows the numbers of attributable deaths etc. for scenarios that require all diesel cars and/or goods vehicles to meet the Euro 6/VI standards. It is estimated that there will be 17.3 deaths attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution within the Middle Ring Road in 2018 if the bus fleet corresponds to the national bus fleet. The number will be slightly higher if the bus fleet operating in the area consists of older buses. Requiring all buses to meet the Euro VI standard in 2018 is predicted to reduce the number of attributable deaths by 0.8-2.4 depending on the baseline bus fleet. Requiring all diesel cars entering the Middle Ring Road area to meet the Euro 6 standard is predicted to reduce the number of attributable deaths by 1.8 per year in 2018. Reducing all goods vehicles to meet the Euro VI standard for heavy goods and Euro 6 for light goods is predicted to reduce the number of attributable deaths by 1.4 per year. Requiring all diesel vehicles to meet the Euro VI/Euro 6 standards is predicted to reduce the number of attributable deaths by 4.5-5.9 per year depending on the base bus fleet. Excluding all vehicles from the Middle Ring Road area is predicted to reduce the number of deaths by 5.7-7.1 per year. The effect of the measures on attributable deaths decreases in future years beyond 2018: by 2026 requiring all diesel vehicles to meet Euro VI/6 only reduces calculated number of attributable deaths by 0.5 per year. Requiring all vehicles within the Middle Ring Road to meet the Euro 6/VI emissions standards is predicted to reduce the number of asthmatic children with chronic bronchitic symptoms by 12.1 in 2018 and 1.3 in 2026 compared with the business as usual case. This combination of measures is predicted to reduce the number of hospital admissions by 2.9 per year in 2018 and 0.3 in 2026.

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Table 4.13: Effect of measures within Birmingham Middle Ring Road on the numbers of deaths, asthmatic children with chronic bronchitis symptoms and respiratory hospital admissions attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution Reduction in prevalence of Respiratory bronchitis in Buses Other traffic Deaths hospital asthmatic admissions children

2018 National fleet Base 17.3 0.0 30.3 National fleet with Base 17.2 0.3 30.2 SBQP Existing fleet Base 18.6 -3.3 31.1 Existing fleet with Base 17.9 -1.4 30.6 SBQP National fleet- Base 17.7 -0.9 30.5 2years National fleet- 2years with Base 17.4 -0.3 30.4 SBQP All Euro IV(minimum Base 17.8 -1.3 30.6 SBQP) Existing fleet with SBQP and SCR Base 17.2 0.3 30.2 retrofit (SCRRF) All Euro VI Base 16.4 2.4 29.7 Base Diesel cars Euro 6 15.5 4.8 29.1 Goods vehicles Base 15.9 3.7 29.4 Euro VI/6 All Euro VI All Euro VI/6 12.7 12.1 27.4 None None 11.5 15.1 26.7 2026 Base Base 10.2 0.0 25.8

All Euro VI Base 10.1 0.3 25.8 Base Diesel cars Euro 6 9.9 0.8 25.6 Goods vehicles Base 10.2 0.0 25.8 Euro VI/6 All Euro VI All Euro VI/6 9.7 1.3 25.5 None None 6.8 8.9 23.7 SBQP=Bus statutory quality partnership scheme. The Birmingham Bus statutory quality partnership scheme came UNRATIFIEDinto operation on 22 July 2012. The measures introduced included changes to the bus routes within the city centre (e.g. closure of Corporation Street to buses and taxis) and minimum bus emission standards. All core bus routes are required to meet the Euro IV standard by 28th May 2017. The Partnership agreement does not require further improvements beyond Euro IV in subsequent years.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 47 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 4.14 shows the number of deaths attributable to nitrogen dioxide pollution amongst the population living within 2000 m of the M6 and M6 Toll roads between their junctions for a range of scenarios. The scenarios are based on the diversion of through traffic travelling on the M6 onto the M6 Toll. Additional scenarios considered take account of the potential effect of diverting through traffic entering or leaving the M6 via the M42 to the M40. The scenarios considered were:

Base: Business as usual case S2.1: All M6 through traffic diverted S2.1a: All M6 and M40/M42 through traffic diverted S2.2: All M6 through diesel traffic diverted S2.2a: All M6 and M40/M42 through diesel traffic diverted S2.3: All M6 through diesel traffic diverted except Euro 6/VI S2.3a: All M6 and M40/M42 through diesel traffic diverted except Euro 6/VI

Table 4.14: Effect of measures to divert M6 through traffic onto the M6 Toll on the numbers of deaths attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution within 2000 m of the motorways Number of deaths per year attributable to Affected Year Local authority nitrogen dioxide pollution population Base S2.1 S2.1a S2.2 S2.2a S2.3 S2.3a Birmingham 220,141 46.6 45.3 44.5 45.3 44.6 45.6 45.0 Sandwell 42,934 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.8 9.5 9.9 9.7 Solihull 50,705 7.4 7.0 6.8 7.0 6.8 7.1 7.0 Walsall 128,593 27.0 25.9 25.2 25.9 25.3 26.2 25.7 Wolverhampton 6,985 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2018 Cannock Chase 55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lichfield 15,110 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 North 11,843 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 Warwickshire South 21,586 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Staffordshire All 497,952 94.6 91.4 89.4 91.5 89.7 92.2 90.8 Birmingham 220,141 16.4 15.7 15.3 15.7 15.3 16.3 16.3 Sandwell 42,934 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 Solihull 50,705 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 Walsall 128,593 6.7 6.2 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.6 6.6 Wolverhampton 6,985 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2026 Cannock Chase 55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lichfield 15,110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 North 11,843 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Warwickshire South 21,586 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Staffordshire UNRATIFIEDAll 497,952 26.2 24.6 23.7 24.7 23.9 26.1 25.9

It is estimated that 94.6 deaths in 2018 in the study area will be attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution. The most effective scenario (S2.1a) is predicted to reduce the number of attributable deaths by 5.2 per year in 2018 and 2.5 per year in 2026. The measures reduce the number of attributable deaths close to the M6 in Birmingham, Sandwell, Solihull, and Walsall and increase the number of attributable deaths close to the M6 Toll in Lichfield and North Warwickshire.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 48 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 4.15 shows the estimated reduction in the numbers of asthmatic children with symptoms of chronic bronchitis. The most effective measure (S2.1a) is estimated to reduce the number of asthmatic children with bronchitic symptoms by 11.0 in 2018 and 5.7 in 2026 compared with the base case.

Table 4.15: Reduction in the number of asthmatic children with chronic bronchitic symptoms for measures to divert traffic from the M6 Base Reduction number of asthmatic Base S2.1 S2.1a S2.2 S2.2a S2.3 S2.3a Year Local authority children with bronchitic symptoms

Birmingham 1857.6 0.0 3.3 5.3 3.1 5.0 2.4 3.9 Sandwell 336.0 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.8 1.3 0.6 1.0 Solihull 372.0 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.9 Walsall 998.6 0.0 2.2 3.6 2.1 3.4 1.6 2.6 Wolverhampton 50.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2018 Cannock Chase 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lichfield 102.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 North 81.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 Warwickshire South 139.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Staffordshire All 3938.6 0.0 6.8 11.0 6.5 10.4 5.0 8.1 Birmingham 1857.6 0.0 1.9 3.0 1.8 2.8 0.1 0.3 Sandwell 336.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 Solihull 372.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 Walsall 998.6 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.5 0.1 0.2 Wolverhampton 50.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2026 Cannock Chase 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lichfield 102.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 North 81.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Warwickshire South 139.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Staffordshire All 3938.6 0.0 3.6 5.7 3.3 5.2 0.3 0.6

Table 4.16 shows the calculated numbers of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases attributable to nitrogen dioxide for each of the scenarios. It is estimated that there will be 305.9 hospital admissions for respiratory diseases amongst people living within 2000 m of the motorway links in 2018. The most effective measure (S2.1a) is estimated to reduce the number of hospitalUNRATIFIED admissions for respiratory diseases by 2.7 in 2018 and 1.5 in 2026 compared with the 2018 and 2026 base cases.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 49 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 4.16: Effect of measures to divert M6 through traffic onto the M6 Toll on the numbers of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases attributable to nitrogen dioxide air pollution within 2000 m of the motorways Number of hospital admissions for respiratory Affected diseases per year attributable to nitrogen Year Local authority population dioxide pollution Base S2.1 S2.1a S2.2 S2.2a S2.3 S2.3a Birmingham 220,141 140.1 139.4 138.9 139.4 139.0 139.6 139.2 Sandwell 42,934 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.8 27.0 26.9 Solihull 50,705 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.5 Walsall 128,593 79.2 78.6 78.2 78.6 78.3 78.8 78.5 Wolverhampton 6,985 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 2018 Cannock Chase 55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lichfield 15,110 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 North 11,843 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 Warwickshire South 21,586 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 Staffordshire All 497,952 305.9 304.2 303.2 304.3 303.3 304.7 303.9 Birmingham 220,141 120.0 119.6 119.3 119.6 119.4 120.0 120.0 Sandwell 42,934 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.8 22.8 Solihull 50,705 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.5 Walsall 128,593 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.9 66.7 67.2 67.1 Wolverhampton 6,985 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2026 Cannock Chase 55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lichfield 15,110 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 North 11,843 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Warwickshire South 21,586 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 Staffordshire All 497,952 261.7 260.7 260.2 260.8 260.3 261.7 261.6

4.4.2 Effects of exposure to particulate matter, PM2.5 The HRAPIE experts recommended estimation of the impact of long-term (annual average) exposure to PM2.5 on all-cause (natural) mortality in adult populations (age 30+ years). It should be based on a linear concentration response function (CRF), with Relative Risk (RR) of 1.062 (95% CI = 1.040, 1.083) per 10 μg m-3. The impacts should be calculated at all levels of PM2.5. The HRAPIE experts classified this pollutant-outcome pair in Group A. Public Health England provided guidance on “Estimating local mortality burdens associated with particulate air pollution”. The Public Health England guidance recommends the use of a relative risk of 1.06 per 10 µg m-3, which is similar to the HRAPIE recommendation. The relative risk applicable locally is derived by scaling the relative risk of 1.06 per 10 µg m-3 according to theUNRATIFIED local population-weighted modelled annual average anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations. It is customary to calculate the mortality attributable to air pollution only for adults aged 30 years or more. However, the guidance states that the proportion of deaths below the age of 30 is so small that using the total across all ages leads only to a slightly larger estimate. All age mortality, shown in Table 4.8 has been used in this assessment.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 50 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Defra provided population-weighted annual average anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations for each local authority for 201146. The 2011 estimates were adjusted for future scenarios (2018 and 2026) taking account of Defra’s forecasts for the contributions from non-road anthropogenic sources for future years47 and our modelled estimates of local road contributions to the population-weighted annual average concentrations. Public Health England recommend that the number of life years lost to the population associated with this increased mortality be calculated. Estimates of remaining life expectancy can be obtained from life-table calculations; the Public Health England guidance indicates that a simplified approach can be taken that assumes an average loss of 12 years per attributable death.

The HRAPIE experts also recommended the calculation of the effects of short-term PM2.5 exposure on hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (IC-10 categories J00-J99). The HRAPIE report provides linear concentration response functions for cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions, with Relative Risks of 1.0091 (with a 95% confidence interval 1.0045-1.0201) and 1.019 (with a 95% confidence interval 0.9982- 1.0402) respectively per 10 μg m-3. The HRAPIE experts classified these pollutant-outcome pairs in Group A. There were 949,588 and 782,432 hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases(IC-10 categories I00-I99) and respiratory diseases (1C-10 codes J00-J99) 48 in England in 2011-12 among a population of 53,012,456. This assessment has used this admission rate pro-rata in the West Midlands. Restricted activity days (RADs) include days when individuals reduce their normal activities. These include days of missed work, absences from school and other more minor reductions in daily activity. They include work days lost, hospitalizations and asthmatic symptoms in children. The HRAPIE experts recommended the calculation of the effects of short-term PM2.5 exposure on Restricted Activity Days. The HRAPIE report provides a linear concentration response function for all-age RADs, with a Relative Risk of 1.047 (with a 95% confidence interval 1.042-1.053) per 10 μg m-3. The HRAPIE experts classified this pollutant- outcome pairs in Group B. The average number of restricted activity days per year per person in Great Britain in 2011 due to illness or injury was 28 49: this rate has been applied here for the West Midlands. Approximately 5 work days were lost per worker (aged 16+) in the West Midlands in 201150 because of injuries and illness. The most common reasons given for absence were minor illnesses such as cough, colds and flu. The HRAPIE experts recommended the calculation of the effects of PM2.5 exposure on work days lost. The HRAPIE report provides a linear concentration response function workdays lost, with a Relative Risk of 1.046 (with a 95% confidence interval 1.039-1.053) per 10 μg m-3. The HRAPIE experts classified this pollutant- outcome pair in Group B. Table 4.17 shows the estimated burden on local mortality attributable to anthropogenic particulate air pollution. It shows the calculated population-weighted anthropogenic annual mean PM2.5 for each district and the calculated numbers of attributable deaths. It also shows the estimated number of attributable life-years lost. It is estimated that there were 1,359 deaths attributable to particulate air pollution in 2011 in the West Midlands metropolitan authorities. This is expected to decrease to 1,188 in 2026 under “business as usual”. The number of deaths attributable to nitrogen dioxide (906 in 2011) is slightly smaller than that calculated for particulate matter. (Note that particulate matter pollution may contribute to the estimated numberUNRATIFIED of deaths attributable to nitrogen dioxide so that the effects may not be additive).

46 http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/data/pcm-data

47 http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/data/laqm-background-home

48The Health and Social Care Information Centre, Hospital Episode Statistics for England. Inpatient statistics, 2011-12. 49 Office of National Statistics General Lifestyle Survey 2011, Table 7.6. 50 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_265016.pdf

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 51 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 4.18 shows the calculated numbers of hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, restricted activity days and workday lost associated with particulate matter air pollution. Under the business as usual case with no local measures, the predicted number of hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases for residents of the West Midlands metropolitan districts decreases from 507 to 439 between 2011 and 2026. Similarly, the number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases falls from 863 to 749; the number of restricted activity days falls from 4.1 million to 3.6 million; the number of workdays lost falls from 294,000 to 255,000. The number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases associated with particulate air pollution is smaller than that calculated for nitrogen dioxide (1,896 in 2011).

UNRATIFIED

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 52 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 4.17: Local mortality burden associated with particulate air pollution in West Midlands local authorities Annual deaths per year Life years lost per year Average concentration, µg m-3 Deaths attributable to particulate air attributable to particulate air Local authority 2008-2012 pollution pollution

2011 2018 2026 2011 2018 2026 2011 2018 2026 Birmingham 10.45 9.48 9.08 41,242 486 441 426 5838 5296 5112 Coventry 10.27 9.37 8.93 13,453 156 142 137 1874 1709 1642 Dudley 9.42 8.49 8.14 14,771 158 142 137 1896 1710 1650 Sandwell 10.96 9.90 9.54 14,411 178 161 156 2134 1927 1873 Solihull 9.98 9.13 8.70 9,094 103 94 90 1233 1128 1083 Walsall 10.60 9.57 9.18 12,304 147 133 128 1765 1593 1542 Wolverhampton 9.53 8.63 8.25 12,094 131 118 114 1569 1421 1369 Cannock Chase 8.82 7.94 7.56 4,185 42 38 36 505 454 436 Lichfield 8.92 8.10 7.70 4,868 49 45 43 594 539 516 North 9.64 8.75 8.33 3,026 33 30 29 397 360 346 Warwickshire South 8.65 7.73 7.37 5,472 54 48 46 648 579 556 Staffordshire West Midlands metropolitan 117,369 1,359 1,231 1,188 16,309 14,784 14,271 districts

UNRATIFIED Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 53 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 4.18: Hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, restricted activity days and workdays lost associated with particulate air pollution in West Midlands local authorities51 Hospital admissions for Hospital admissions for Local Restricted activity days Workdays lost cardiovascular diseases respiratory diseases authority 2011 2018 2026 2011 2018 2026 2011 2018 2026 2011 2018 2026 Birmingham 181 164 157 308 280 268 1,474,374 1,337,600 1,281,126 96,213 87,288 83,602 Coventry 53 48 46 90 82 78 428,244 390,537 372,409 30,443 27,762 26,474 Dudley 48 43 41 81 73 70 387,665 349,503 334,842 29,798 26,864 25,737 Sandwell 55 49 47 93 84 81 444,217 401,076 386,641 31,366 28,320 27,301 Solihull 33 30 29 57 52 49 271,192 248,230 236,531 21,673 19,838 18,903 Walsall 46 42 40 78 71 68 375,355 338,862 325,239 26,467 23,894 22,933 Wolverhampton 38 35 33 65 59 57 312,626 283,031 270,799 21,799 19,736 18,883 Cannock Chase 14 13 12 24 21 20 113,065 101,784 96,913 9,349 8,416 8,014 Lichfield 15 13 13 25 22 21 118,093 107,237 101,941 9,749 8,853 8,416 North 10 9 8 16 15 14 78,634 71,374 67,948 6,743 6,120 5,827 Warwickshire South 15 14 13 26 23 22 123,023 109,938 104,818 10,272 9,180 8,752 Staffordshire West Midlands metropolitan 507 459 439 863 782 749 4,126,487 3,739,171 3,579,207 293,873 266,271 254,841 districts

51 Damage costs include chronic mortality effects and morbidity effectsUNRATIFIED i.e hospital admissions. It does not include restricted activity or workdays lost. Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP2/3/Issue Number 1 54

Table 4.19 shows the numbers of deaths and life-years lost, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, restricted activity days and workdays lost within the Birmingham Middle Ring road associated with particulate matter air pollution calculated for various emissions reduction measures. Requiring all vehicles in the area to meet Euro 6/Euro VI emission standards reduces the number of deaths attributable to particulate matter compared with the 2018 base by 0.12-0.17: this reduction is small compared to that attributable to nitrogen dioxide for the same measures (4.5-5.9). This measure is predicted to reduce the number of respiratory hospital admissions attributable to particulate matter pollution by approximately 0.1 in 2018: this reduction is small compared to the reduction in respiratory hospital admissions attributable to the reduction in nitrogen dioxide concentrations (2.9). . Requiring all vehicles in the area to meet Euro 6/Euro VI emission standards reduces the number of restricted activity days and workdays lost by 0.7%. Table 4.20 shows the numbers of deaths and life-years lost, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, restricted activity days and workdays lost within the 2000 m of the M6 and M6 Toll associated with particulate matter air pollution calculated for the most effective emissions reduction measures. Requiring all through traffic on M6 and M40/M42 to divert onto the M6Toll reduces the number of deaths attributable to particulate matter compared with the 2018 base by 0.4: this reduction is small compared to that attributable to nitrogen dioxide for the same measures (5.2). This measure is predicted to reduce the number of respiratory hospital admissions attributable to particulate matter pollution by approximately 0.3 in 2018: this reduction is small compared to the reduction in respiratory hospital admissions attributable to the reduction in nitrogen dioxide concentrations (2.7). Diverting all through traffic onto the M6 reduces the number of restricted activity days and workdays lost by 0.2%.

UNRATIFIED

55

Table 4.19: Deaths and life years lost, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, restricted activity days and workdays lost within the Birmingham Middle Ring Road associated with particulate matter air pollution

years lost - respiratory Buses Other traffic Deaths Life Hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases Hospital admissions for diseases Restricted daysactivity Workdays lost 2018 National fleet Base 16.76 201.1 6.2 10.6 48,436 3,164 National fleet Base 16.75 201.0 6.2 10.6 48,406 3,162 with SBQP Existing fleet Base 16.81 201.7 6.3 10.6 48,574 3,173 Existing fleet Base 16.76 201.1 6.2 10.6 48,437 3,164 with SBQP National fleet- Base 16.77 201.2 6.2 10.6 48,463 3,166 2years National fleet- 2years with Base 16.75 201.0 6.2 10.6 48,418 3,163 SBQP All Euro IV(minimum Base 16.76 201.1 6.2 10.6 48,436 3,164 SBQP) Existing fleet with SBQP and Base 16.76 201.1 6.2 10.6 48,438 3,164 SCR retrofit (SCRRF) All Euro VI Base 16.74 200.8 6.2 10.6 48,373 3,160 Diesel Base cars Euro 16.67 200.0 6.2 10.6 48,180 3,147 6 Goods Base vehicles 16.75 201.0 6.2 10.6 48,414 3,162 Euro VI/6 All Euro All Euro VI 16.64 199.7 6.2 10.5 48,096 3,142 VI/6 None None 15.83 190.0 5.9 10.0 45,761 2,989 2026 Base Base 16.04 192.5 6.0 10.2 46,353 3,028 All Euro VI Base 16.04 192.4 6.0 10.2 46,348 3,028 Diesel Base cars Euro 16.03 192.3 6.0 10.2 46,326 3,026 6 Goods Base vehicles 16.04 192.4 6.0 10.2 46,351 3,028 Euro VI/6 All Euro All Euro VI 16.03 192.3 6.0 10.2 46,318 3,026 VI/6 None UNRATIFIEDNone 15.16 182.0 5.6 9.6 43,830 2,863

56

Table 4.20: Deaths and life years lost, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, restricted activity days and workdays lost within 2000m of the M6 and M6 Toll associated with particulate matter air pollution in 2018

ario years lost - Local authority Scen Deaths Life Hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases Hospital admissions for respiratory diseases Restricted daysactivity Workdays lost

Birmingham 97.7 1,172 36.3 61.9 282,300 18,440 Sandwell 24.2 290 7.4 12.6 57,395 4,057

Solihull 24.6 295 8.0 13.6 61,956 4,956

Walsall 68.3 819 21.4 36.4 166,030 11,719

Wolverhampton 3.5 42 1.0 1.7 7,944 554 Base Cannock Chase 2018 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 58 5

Lichfield 6.9 83 2.0 3.5 15,867 1,311

North Warwickshire 6.2 74 1.8 3.1 14,002 1,202

South Staffordshire 10.1 121 2.8 4.8 22,162 1,852

All 241.3 2,896 80.8 137.6 627,714 44,096 Birmingham 97.5 1,170 36.3 61.8 281,742 18,404 Sandwell 24.1 289 7.4 12.6 57,251 4,047

Solihull 24.5 294 7.9 13.5 61,844 4,947

Walsall 68.1 817 21.3 36.3 165,618 11,690

Wolverhampton 3.5 42 1.0 1.7 7,935 554 S2.1a Cannock Chase 2018 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 58 5

Lichfield 6.9 83 2.0 3.5 15,905 1,314

North Warwickshire 6.2 74 1.8 3.1 14,021 1,203

South Staffordshire 10.1 121 2.8 4.8 22,160 1,852

All 240.9 2,891 80.6 137.3 626,533 44,015 UNRATIFIED

57

Appendix 1 – Emissions estimates used in economic analysis

UNRATIFIED

58

Table A1: Birmingham City Centre LEZ bus NOx emissions, kg per year NAEI with NXWM Bus National with National statutory Express NXWM Euro VI SBQP Year fleet quality West with Euro VI Compressed and (NAEI) partnership Midlands SBQP Natural Gas SCR scheme (NXWM) retrofit (SBQP) 2018 29,176 26,040 28,969 30,024 21,501 5,777 5,777 2019 25,098 22,786 23,816 30,038 21,509 5,774 5,774 2020 21,483 19,733 23,405 30,052 21,517 5,769 5,769 2021 18,165 16,962 21,961 30,054 21,515 5,761 5,761 2022 15,362 14,520 18,036 18,036 16,435 5,750 5,750 2023 13,144 12,589 17,203 17,203 16,079 5,738 5,738 2024 11,255 10,936 15,251 15,251 15,251 5,724 5,724 2025 9,657 9,523 13,354 13,354 13,354 5,710 5,710 2026 8,670 8,576 12,252 12,252 12,252 5,696 5,696 2027 7,866 7,866 7,954 7,954 7,954 5,683 5,683 2028 7,254 7,254 5,673 5,673 5,673 5,673 5,673 2029 6,940 6,940 5,665 5,665 5,665 5,665 5,665 2030 6,584 6,584 5,658 5,658 5,658 5,658 5,658

Table A2 Birmingham City Centre LEZ bus PM2.5 emissions, kg per year NAEI with NXWM Bus National with National statutory Express NXWM Euro VI SBQP Year fleet quality West with Euro VI Compressed and (NAEI) partnership Midlands SBQP Natural Gas SCR scheme (NXWM) retrofit (SBQP) 2018 687 641 686 604 604 428 428 2019 635 547 580 603 603 428 428 2020 594 525 571 602 602 427 427 2021 556 505 542 602 602 427 427 2022 526 488 512 512 512 427 427 2023 501 475 506 506 506 427 427 2024 480 463 491 491 491 427 427 2025 462 453 479 479 479 427 427 2026 450 447 471 471 471 427 427 2027 442 442 442 442 442 427 427 2028 UNRATIFIED437 437 426 426 426 426 426 2029 435 435 426 426 426 426 426 2030 433 433 426 426 426 426 426

59

Table A3: Birmingham City Centre LEZ bus PM10 emissions, kg NAEI with NXWM Bus National with National statutory Express NXWM Euro VI SBQP Year fleet quality West with Euro VI Compressed and (NAEI) partnership Midlands SBQP Natural Gas SCR scheme (NXWM) retrofit (SBQP) 2018 1,091 1,043 1,090 1,003 1,003 818 818 2019 1,036 944 979 1,003 1,003 818 818 2020 993 921 969 1,002 1,002 818 818 2021 953 900 938 1,002 1,002 818 818 2022 922 882 907 907 907 818 818 2023 895 868 901 901 901 817 817 2024 873 855 885 885 885 817 817 2025 855 845 872 872 872 817 817 2026 842 838 864 864 864 817 817 2027 833 833 833 833 833 817 817 2028 828 828 817 817 817 817 817 2029 826 826 817 817 817 817 817 2030 823 823 817 817 817 817 817

Table A4: Birmingham City Centre LEZ bus CO2 emissions, tonnes per year NAEI with Bus National National statutory Express NXWM Euro VI Year fleet quality West with Euro VI Compressed (NAEI) partnership Midlands SBQP Natural Gas scheme (NXWM) (SBQP) 2018 7,188 7,114 7,209 7,135 7,147 7,089 2019 7,174 7,117 7,146 7,135 7,147 7,089 2020 7,167 7,120 7,141 7,135 7,147 7,089 2021 7,159 7,124 7,123 7,135 7,147 7,089 2022 7,157 7,129 7,117 7,117 7,147 7,089 2023 7,152 7,132 7,116 7,116 7,147 7,089 2024 7,148 7,135 7,113 7,113 7,147 7,089 2025 7,145 7,138 7,120 7,120 7,147 7,089 2026 7,142 7,140 7,124 7,124 7,147 7,089 2027 7,141 7,141 7,139 7,139 7,147 7,089 2028 UNRATIFIED7,142 7,142 7,147 7,147 7,147 7,089 2029 7,143 7,143 7,147 7,147 7,147 7,089 2030 7,144 7,144 7,147 7,147 7,147 7,089

60

Table A5: Bus routes from Birmingham City Centre NOx emissions from buses, kg per year NAEI with NXWM Bus National with National statutory Express NXWM Euro VI SBQP Year fleet quality West with Euro VI Compressed and (NAEI) partnership Midlands SBQP Natural Gas SCR scheme (NXWM) retrofit (SBQP) 2018 331,429 295,124 325,210 331,938 242,161 72,603 72,603 2019 287,285 259,913 269,626 332,090 242,250 72,571 72,571 2020 248,248 226,886 265,191 332,245 242,333 72,519 72,519 2021 211,924 196,523 249,604 332,258 242,309 72,424 72,424 2022 180,864 169,447 209,515 209,515 192,655 72,306 72,306 2023 156,293 148,234 200,999 200,999 189,168 72,163 72,163 2024 135,176 129,955 181,059 181,059 181,059 72,009 72,009 2025 117,247 114,315 159,344 159,344 159,344 71,850 71,850 2026 104,988 103,896 146,737 146,737 146,737 71,690 71,690 2027 96,110 96,110 97,544 97,544 97,544 71,550 71,550 2028 89,370 89,370 71,433 71,433 71,433 71,433 71,433 2029 85,771 85,771 71,339 71,339 71,339 71,339 71,339 2030 81,698 81,698 71,269 71,269 71,269 71,269 71,269

Table A6: Bus routes from Birmingham City Centre PM2.5 emissions from buses, kg NAEI with NXWM Bus National with National statutory Express NXWM Euro VI SBQP Year fleet quality West with Euro VI Compressed and (NAEI) partnership Midlands SBQP Natural Gas SCR scheme (NXWM) retrofit (SBQP) 2018 6,732 5,488 6,721 5,815 5,815 3,895 3,895 2019 6,168 5,225 5,573 5,807 5,807 3,893 3,893 2020 5,727 4,980 5,474 5,800 5,800 3,891 3,891 2021 5,315 4,763 5,157 5,800 5,800 3,890 3,890 2022 4,992 4,573 4,844 4,844 4,844 3,889 3,889 2023 4,717 4,421 4,778 4,778 4,778 3,888 3,888 2024 4,484 4,292 4,622 4,622 4,622 3,887 3,887 2025 4,290 4,182 4,476 4,476 4,476 3,885 3,885 2026 4,148 4,108 4,390 4,390 4,390 3,884 3,884 2027 4,052 4,052 4,058 4,058 4,058 3,883 3,883 2028 UNRATIFIED4,004 4,004 3,882 3,882 3,882 3,882 3,882 2029 3,980 3,980 3,881 3,881 3,881 3,881 3,881 2030 3,952 3,952 3,880 3,880 3,880 3,880 3,880

61

UNRATIFIED

62

Table A7: Bus routes from Birmingham City Centre PM10 emissions from buses, kg per year NAEI with NXWM Bus National with National statutory Express NXWM Euro VI SBQP Year fleet quality West with Euro VI Compressed and (NAEI) partnership Midlands SBQP Natural Gas SCR scheme (NXWM) retrofit (SBQP) 2018 10,389 9,080 10,377 9,424 9,424 7,402 7,402 2019 9,796 8,803 9,169 9,416 9,416 7,401 7,401 2020 9,331 8,545 9,064 9,408 9,408 7,399 7,399 2021 8,897 8,317 8,731 9,408 9,408 7,398 7,398 2022 8,558 8,116 8,402 8,402 8,402 7,397 7,397 2023 8,269 7,957 8,332 8,332 8,332 7,395 7,395 2024 8,023 7,821 8,169 8,169 8,169 7,394 7,394 2025 7,818 7,705 8,014 8,014 8,014 7,393 7,393 2026 7,669 7,627 7,924 7,924 7,924 7,391 7,391 2027 7,568 7,568 7,575 7,575 7,575 7,390 7,390 2028 7,518 7,518 7,389 7,389 7,389 7,389 7,389 2029 7,492 7,492 7,388 7,388 7,388 7,388 7,388 2030 7,463 7,463 7,387 7,387 7,387 7,387 7,387

Table A8: Bus routes from Birmingham City Centre CO2 emissions from buses, tonnes per year NAEI with NXWM Bus National with National statutory Express NXWM Euro VI SBQP Year fleet quality West with Euro VI Compressed and (NAEI) partnership Midlands SBQP Natural Gas SCR scheme (NXWM) retrofit (SBQP) 2018 64,538 63,867 64,720 64,062 64,164 63,643 64,538 2019 64,412 63,896 64,157 64,062 64,164 63,643 64,412 2020 64,341 63,922 64,111 64,062 64,164 63,643 64,341 2021 64,277 63,961 63,953 64,062 64,164 63,643 64,277 2022 64,252 64,006 63,901 63,901 64,164 63,643 64,252 2023 64,207 64,034 63,890 63,890 64,164 63,643 64,207 2024 64,175 64,062 63,864 63,864 64,164 63,643 64,175 2025 64,150 64,087 63,923 63,923 64,164 63,643 64,150 2026 64,125 64,101 63,958 63,958 64,164 63,643 64,125 2027 64,111UNRATIFIED 64,111 64,093 64,093 64,164 63,643 64,111 2028 64,121 64,121 64,164 64,164 64,164 63,643 64,121 2029 64,130 64,130 64,164 64,164 64,164 63,643 64,130 2030 64,141 64,141 64,164 64,164 64,164 63,643 64,141

63

UNRATIFIED

64

Table A9: Emissions from cars in the Birmingham City Centre LEZ, kg per year Business as usual Diesel Euro 6 Year NOx PM2.5 PM10 NOx PM2.5 PM10 2018 61908 4593 8081 36076 4102 7564 2019 58046 4467 7961 35810 4084 7557 2020 54443 4347 7855 35499 4058 7550 2021 51237 4259 7774 35165 4046 7550 2022 48107 4189 7711 34885 4035 7549 2023 45086 4136 7664 34537 4025 7548 2024 42380 4096 7630 34144 4016 7546 2025 39885 4067 7607 33724 4007 7544 2026 37639 4042 7591 33216 3995 7541 2027 35887 4026 7580 32749 3987 7539 2028 34488 4013 7572 32289 3979 7536 2029 33395 4003 7566 31849 3973 7534 2030 32543 3996 7561 31422 3967 7531

Table A10: Emissions from cars registered in postcode areas within or adjacent to Birmingham LEZ over the wider area

Business as usual Diesel Euro 6 Year NOx PM2.5 PM10 NOx PM2.5 PM10 2018 144133 10964 19282 83997 9809 18066 2019 135087 10664 18995 83346 9762 18046 2020 126656 10378 18743 82594 9696 18025 2021 119154 10169 18551 81782 9668 18023 2022 111838 10004 18403 81101 9642 18021 2023 104776 9878 18292 80257 9618 18018 2024 98447 9784 18212 79307 9595 18013 2025 92607 9716 18158 78291 9574 18008 2026 87333 9656 18119 77056 9545 18002 2027 83214 9618 18093 75923 9526 17996 2028 79911 9588 18074 74803 9815 18313 2029 77317 9564 18060 73727 9492 17984 2030 75280 9545 18049 72677 9478 17978

UNRATIFIED

65

Table A11: Emissions from taxis in the Birmingham City Centre LEZ

Business as usual LPG

Year NOx PM2.5 kg PM10 kg CO2 NOx PM2.5 kg PM10 kg CO2 kg tonnes kg tonnes 2018 33341 1846 2858 11902 3621 1207 2185 10563 2019 30671 1729 2735 11902 3334 1207 2185 10563 2020 27774 1624 2624 11902 3076 1207 2185 10563 2021 25196 1531 2527 11902 2853 1207 2185 10563 2022 22963 1449 2440 11902 2680 1207 2185 10563 2023 21062 1380 2367 11902 2543 1207 2185 10563 2024 19423 1321 2306 11902 2440 1207 2185 10563 2025 17999 1272 2254 11902 2366 1207 2185 10563 2026 16714 1235 2215 11902 2316 1207 2185 10563 2027 15600 1208 2186 11902 2283 1207 2185 10563 2028 14673 1189 2166 11902 2262 1207 2185 10563 2029 13887 1176 2153 11902 2249 1207 2185 10563 2030 13258 1168 2144 11902 2241 1207 2185 10563

Table A12: Emissions from Birmingham taxis over the wider area

Ep LPG Year NOx PM2.5 PM10 CO2 NOx PM2.5 PM10 CO2 2018 138523 7814 12111 50552 15952 5122 9278 44865 2019 127359 7320 11591 50552 14681 5122 9277 44865 2020 115264 6877 11124 50552 13537 5121 9276 44865 2021 104511 6489 10716 50552 12548 5121 9276 44865 2022 95202 6143 10352 50552 11779 5121 9276 44865 2023 87289 5851 10044 50552 11171 5121 9276 44865 2024 80475 5605 9785 50552 10711 5121 9276 44865 2025 74560 5399 9569 50552 10381 5121 9276 44865 2026 69227 5242 9404 50552 10160 5121 9276 44865 2027 64608 5127 9283 50552 10013 5121 9276 44865 2028 60768 5047 9198 50552 9920 5121 9276 44865 2029 57509 4993 9141 50552 9862 5121 9276 44865 2030 54906 4958 9105 50552 9826 5121 9276 44865

UNRATIFIED

66

Table A13: Emissions from LGVs in the Birmingham LEZ, kg

Business as usual Diesel Euro 6 Year NOx PM2.5 PM10 NOx PM2.5 PM10 2018 5049 222 390 2665 198 364 2019 4534 215 382 2650 198 364 2020 4105 210 377 2634 198 364 2021 3751 206 373 2618 198 364 2022 3465 204 371 2601 198 364 2023 3238 202 369 2584 198 364 2024 3054 201 368 2567 197 364 2025 2908 200 367 2549 197 364 2026 2787 200 366 2530 197 364 2027 2689 199 366 2508 197 364 2028 2612 199 366 2483 197 364 2029 2553 199 365 2455 197 364 2030 2503 199 365 2423 197 363

Table A14: Emissions from LGVs registered in postcode areas within or adjacent to Birmingham LEZ over the wider area

Business as usual Diesel Euro 6 Year NOx PM2.5 PM10 NOx PM2.5 PM10 2018 107139 4739 8342 56557 4244 7820 2019 96221 4592 8187 56233 4241 7817 2020 87114 4486 8075 55900 4239 7815 2021 79590 4415 8000 55550 4238 7814 2022 73532 4363 7946 55189 4237 7812 2023 68721 4330 7910 54829 4236 7811 2024 64817 4308 7887 54470 4234 7810 2025 61711 4294 7873 54102 4233 7809 2026 59143 4282 7860 53686 4232 7807 2027 57067 4275 7853 53217 4230 7805 2028 55431 4270 7847 52688 4228 7803 2029 54168 4264 7841 52093 4226 7801 2030 53126 4261 7837 51425 4782 8387

UNRATIFIED

67

Table A15: Emissions from HGVs in the Birmingham LEZ, kg

Business as usual Diesel Euro VI Year NOx PM2.5 PM10 NOx PM2.5 PM10 2018 2622 156 278 768 137 258 2019 2053 150 271 768 137 258 2020 1627 145 266 768 137 258 2021 1323 141 263 768 137 258 2022 1123 140 261 768 137 258 2023 983 139 260 768 137 258 2024 901 138 259 768 137 258 2025 845 137 259 768 137 258 2026 806 137 258 768 137 258 2027 780 137 258 768 137 258 2028 769 137 258 768 137 258 2029 769 137 258 768 137 258 2030 769 137 258 768 137 258

Table A16: Emissions from HGVs registered in postcode areas within or adjacent to Birmingham LEZ over the wider area

Business as usual Diesel Euro VI Year NOx PM2.5 PM10 NOx PM2.5 PM10 2018 32154 1984 3559 8442 1728 3289 2019 25032 1895 3465 8443 1728 3289 2020 19621 1830 3396 8444 1728 3289 2021 15695 1787 3351 8444 1728 3289 2022 13108 1766 3329 8445 1728 3289 2023 11259 1751 3314 8445 1728 3289 2024 10197 1742 3304 8446 1728 3289 2025 9456 1736 3298 8447 1728 3289 2026 8949 1732 3293 8447 1728 3289 2027 8598 1729 3290 8448 1728 3289 2028 8450 1727 3289 8449 1727 3289 2029 8450 1727 3289 8449 1727 3289 2030 8450 1727 3289 8450 1727 3289

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