Housing Market Update

Orangeville November 24, 2015

Housing market intelligence you can count on Dufferin County Core Housing Need

25% 2006 2011

19.8% 20.1% 20% 18.1%

15.2% 15%

11.7%11.4% 10.5% 9.6% 10% 8.6% 8.7%

5%

0% 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages

Source: CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Assessing Housing Need

Adequate

• Housing does not require any major repairs (no defective plumbing or electrical wiring, or structural repairs to walls, floors or ceilings).

Suitable

• Enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of residents (e.g. one bedroom for each cohabiting adult, unattached member of 18 years of age and older).

Affordable

• Housing costs are less than 30 per cent of before tax income.

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Core Housing Need

Average Household Income by Age and Type, 2011

$120,000 All Households Households in Core Need $109,772

$98,595 $100,000 $97,040

$80,000 $73,448 $70,886

$60,000

$40,000 $32,602 $26,839 $25,619 $23,347 $22,546 $20,000

$0 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages

Source: CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Core Housing Need

Share of Income Spent on Shelter (%) by Age and Type 70 All Households Households in Core Need

60 56.5% 55.4% 51.6% 50 45.3% 45.0%

40

30 27.4% 25.2% 23.5% 23.3% 21.5% 20

10

0 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages

Source: CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Highest among renter and lone parent households

Incidence of Core Housing Need, 2011

Renter 34.6%

Lone 26.8% parents

Non-family 25.6% households

Family 7.8% households

Owner 6.9%

Couples 4.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Source: CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Dufferin County 2006, 2011

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2006 2011 2%

0%

Source: Statistics Canada (Census of Canada)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Population Growth, Dufferin County, 2006- 2011

25%

20.7% 20.2% 20% 18.4%

15%

10% 9.3%

5%

0%

-1.8% -5% -6.5% -10%

-15% -13.8%

-20% <14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: Statistics Canada

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, 2011 Orangeville and Dufferin County

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2% Orangeville Dufferin 1%

0%

Source: Statistics Canada (Census of Canada)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Median Age of Population

Ontario 40.4

Barrie

Bradford West Gwillimbury

Orangeville 37.3

Dufferin 40.0

Caledon

Innisfil

New Tecumseth

Springwater

King

Collingwood

Penetanguishene

Midland

Wasaga Beach

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Source: Statistics Canada (Census 2011)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Migration, Dufferin County, 2006-2011

12,000

10,000 OUT IN

8,000 4,799

6,000 3,018

4,000 2,746

2,265 5,807 2,000 3,724 1,026 2,844 1,565 1,257 0 0-17 years 18-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65+ years

Source: Statistics Canada

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Labour Market

Dufferin

Participation rate 70.7% 65.5%

Employment rate 65.7% 60.1%

Unemployment rate 7.0% 8.3%

Full-time Share 79.4% 75.3

Source: Statistics Canada – NHS 2011

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Top Industries in Dufferin County

Number of Share of Industry Employed Employed Manufacturing 4,065 12.7% Retail trade 3,805 11.9% Health care and social assistance 2,775 8.7% Construction 2,620 8.2% Transportation and warehousing 1,995 6.3% Educational services 1,980 6.2% Public administration 1,890 5.9% Accommodation and food services 1,865 5.8% Wholesale trade 1,825 5.7% Administrative and support, waste management and remediation 1,510 4.7% Other services (except public administration) 1,465 4.6% Professional, scientific and technical services 1,405 4.4% Finance and insurance 1,005 3.1% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 970 3.0% Arts, entertainment and recreation 640 2.0% Information and cultural industries 575 1.8% Real estate and rental and leasing 520 1.6% Source: Statistics Canada – NHS 2011 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Current Housing Stock

100% 11.2% 90% 17.3% 6.8% 80% 5.2% 12.3% 70% 9.4% 60% Apartment 50% Semi-detached Row 40% 76.4% Single-detached 30% 60.9%

20%

10%

0% Dufferin Orangeville

Source: Statistics Canada (2011 Census)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Single-detached Homes, 2011

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30% Orangeville Greater Area (CMA)

20%

10%

0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Apartments, 2011

60%

50% Orangeville

Greater Toronto Area (CMA) 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Living Arrangements By Age, Orangeville, 2011

90%

80%

70%

60%

50% Married spouses, common-law partners

40% Living Alone

30%

20%

10%

0%

Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville Rate of Homeownership by Age

100%

90% 85.8% 83.6% 84.0% 81.2% 80% 72.5% 70%

60% 56.7%

50%

40%

30% Owner Share of Total Households Total ofShare Owner 20%

10%

0% 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over

Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville & Area Home Sales on Record Pace

750 712 700 651 650 635 633 622 608 607 600 563 565 550

500 466 450

400

350

300

Source: CREA YTD=January-October

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Prices Up Strongly in 2015

$450,000

$410,480 $400,000

$350,000

$300,000 Average MLS® Existing Home MLS®Existing Price Average $250,000

$200,000

Source: CREA

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville & Area Market in High Demand

100 Sales-to-New Listings Ratio, Seasonally Adjusted

90 Sellers Market

80

70

60

50 Balanced Market

40

30 Buyers Market 20

10

Source: CREA

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono Housing Starts

300 Apartment Row Semi-Detached Single

250

200 28

150

18 Number ofStarts Number

100 188

133 50

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 YTD 2015 YTD

Source: CMHC, YTD=Jan-Oct

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono New Home Prices

$600,000

$550,000 $523,740 $510,412 $500,000

$450,000 $431,598 $432,977 $413,859

$400,000

$350,000

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: CMHC Absorption Survey,

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Ontario rental market vacancy rates in Fall 2015

October 2015 vacancy rates by select centres

Thunder Bay Windsor Peterborough Hamilton Sudbury St. Catharines-Niagara Kingston London Kitchener-Waterloo Oshawa Toronto 1.6% Orangeville 2.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%

Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono Rental Market

Vacancy Rate Two-bedroom Rent 4.0% $1,100

$1,048 3.5% $1,050

$1,000 3.0% $1,000 $977 $968 $955 2.5% 2.5% $950 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% $900

1.5% 1.4% $850

1.0% $800 0.6% 0.5% $750

0.0% $700 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Average Rents, Studio/Private Unit, Seniors’ Housing, 2015

York Halton Peel Durham Ottawa Waterloo Toronto Wellington/Dufferin $2,858 Muskoka Hamilton Simcoe Peterborough Rest of Simcoe Niagara

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000

Source: CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Vacancy Rates, Seniors’ Housing, 2015

Muskoka

Waterloo

Rest of Simcoe

Simcoe

York

Toronto

Wellington/Dufferin 13.4% Peel

Ottawa

Hamilton

Niagara

Halton

Durham

Peterborough

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Source: CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Thank You

Questions?

Andrew Scott Senior Market Analyst [email protected]

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Investments in Affordable Housing 2014 - 2019

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Investment in Affordable Housing

Investment in Affordable Housing (IAH) Program:

. The Federal Government through CMHC provides $80.13M per fiscal year to the Province of Ontario . Cost matched by the Province . Total investment of $160.26M per fiscal year . Annual allocations are provided to the 47 Local Service Managers across the province. . Flexibility to design and deliver a range of affordable housing programs to address local housing needs and priorities.

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION