Dufferin County Housing Market Update
Orangeville November 24, 2015
Housing market intelligence you can count on Dufferin County Core Housing Need
25% 2006 2011
19.8% 20.1% 20% 18.1%
15.2% 15%
11.7%11.4% 10.5% 9.6% 10% 8.6% 8.7%
5%
0% 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Assessing Housing Need
Adequate
• Housing does not require any major repairs (no defective plumbing or electrical wiring, or structural repairs to walls, floors or ceilings).
Suitable
• Enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of residents (e.g. one bedroom for each cohabiting adult, unattached member of 18 years of age and older).
Affordable
• Housing costs are less than 30 per cent of before tax income.
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Core Housing Need
Average Household Income by Age and Type, 2011
$120,000 All Households Households in Core Need $109,772
$98,595 $100,000 $97,040
$80,000 $73,448 $70,886
$60,000
$40,000 $32,602 $26,839 $25,619 $23,347 $22,546 $20,000
$0 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Core Housing Need
Share of Income Spent on Shelter (%) by Age and Type 70 All Households Households in Core Need
60 56.5% 55.4% 51.6% 50 45.3% 45.0%
40
30 27.4% 25.2% 23.5% 23.3% 21.5% 20
10
0 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Highest among renter and lone parent households
Incidence of Core Housing Need, 2011
Renter 34.6%
Lone 26.8% parents
Non-family 25.6% households
Family 7.8% households
Owner 6.9%
Couples 4.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Dufferin County 2006, 2011
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2006 2011 2%
0%
Source: Statistics Canada (Census of Canada)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Population Growth, Dufferin County, 2006- 2011
25%
20.7% 20.2% 20% 18.4%
15%
10% 9.3%
5%
0%
-1.8% -5% -6.5% -10%
-15% -13.8%
-20% <14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: Statistics Canada
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, 2011 Orangeville and Dufferin County
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2% Orangeville Dufferin 1%
0%
Source: Statistics Canada (Census of Canada)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Median Age of Population
Ontario 40.4
Barrie
Bradford West Gwillimbury
Orangeville 37.3
Dufferin 40.0
Caledon
Innisfil
New Tecumseth
Springwater
King
Collingwood
Penetanguishene
Midland
Wasaga Beach
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Source: Statistics Canada (Census 2011)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Migration, Dufferin County, 2006-2011
12,000
10,000 OUT IN
8,000 4,799
6,000 3,018
4,000 2,746
2,265 5,807 2,000 3,724 1,026 2,844 1,565 1,257 0 0-17 years 18-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65+ years
Source: Statistics Canada
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Labour Market
Dufferin Ontario
Participation rate 70.7% 65.5%
Employment rate 65.7% 60.1%
Unemployment rate 7.0% 8.3%
Full-time Share 79.4% 75.3
Source: Statistics Canada – NHS 2011
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Top Industries in Dufferin County
Number of Share of Industry Employed Employed Manufacturing 4,065 12.7% Retail trade 3,805 11.9% Health care and social assistance 2,775 8.7% Construction 2,620 8.2% Transportation and warehousing 1,995 6.3% Educational services 1,980 6.2% Public administration 1,890 5.9% Accommodation and food services 1,865 5.8% Wholesale trade 1,825 5.7% Administrative and support, waste management and remediation 1,510 4.7% Other services (except public administration) 1,465 4.6% Professional, scientific and technical services 1,405 4.4% Finance and insurance 1,005 3.1% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 970 3.0% Arts, entertainment and recreation 640 2.0% Information and cultural industries 575 1.8% Real estate and rental and leasing 520 1.6% Source: Statistics Canada – NHS 2011 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Current Housing Stock
100% 11.2% 90% 17.3% 6.8% 80% 5.2% 12.3% 70% 9.4% 60% Apartment 50% Semi-detached Row 40% 76.4% Single-detached 30% 60.9%
20%
10%
0% Dufferin Orangeville
Source: Statistics Canada (2011 Census)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Single-detached Homes, 2011
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% Orangeville Greater Toronto Area (CMA)
20%
10%
0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Apartments, 2011
60%
50% Orangeville
Greater Toronto Area (CMA) 40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Living Arrangements By Age, Orangeville, 2011
90%
80%
70%
60%
50% Married spouses, common-law partners
40% Living Alone
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville Rate of Homeownership by Age
100%
90% 85.8% 83.6% 84.0% 81.2% 80% 72.5% 70%
60% 56.7%
50%
40%
30% Owner Share of Total Households Total ofShare Owner 20%
10%
0% 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over
Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville & Area Home Sales on Record Pace
750 712 700 651 650 635 633 622 608 607 600 563 565 550
500 466 450
400
350
300
Source: CREA YTD=January-October
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Prices Up Strongly in 2015
$450,000
$410,480 $400,000
$350,000
$300,000 Average MLS® Existing Home MLS®Existing Price Average $250,000
$200,000
Source: CREA
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville & Area Market in High Demand
100 Sales-to-New Listings Ratio, Seasonally Adjusted
90 Sellers Market
80
70
60
50 Balanced Market
40
30 Buyers Market 20
10
Source: CREA
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono Housing Starts
300 Apartment Row Semi-Detached Single
250
200 28
150
18 Number ofStarts Number
100 188
133 50
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 YTD 2015 YTD
Source: CMHC, YTD=Jan-Oct
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono New Home Prices
$600,000
$550,000 $523,740 $510,412 $500,000
$450,000 $431,598 $432,977 $413,859
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: CMHC Absorption Survey,
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Ontario rental market vacancy rates in Fall 2015
October 2015 vacancy rates by select centres
Thunder Bay Windsor Peterborough Hamilton Sudbury St. Catharines-Niagara Brantford Kingston London Ottawa Kitchener-Waterloo Oshawa Toronto 1.6% Barrie Guelph Orangeville 2.5%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono Rental Market
Vacancy Rate Two-bedroom Rent 4.0% $1,100
$1,048 3.5% $1,050
$1,000 3.0% $1,000 $977 $968 $955 2.5% 2.5% $950 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% $900
1.5% 1.4% $850
1.0% $800 0.6% 0.5% $750
0.0% $700 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Average Rents, Studio/Private Unit, Seniors’ Housing, 2015
York Halton Peel Durham Ottawa Waterloo Toronto Wellington/Dufferin $2,858 Muskoka Hamilton Simcoe Peterborough Rest of Simcoe Niagara
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Vacancy Rates, Seniors’ Housing, 2015
Muskoka
Waterloo
Rest of Simcoe
Simcoe
York
Toronto
Wellington/Dufferin 13.4% Peel
Ottawa
Hamilton
Niagara
Halton
Durham
Peterborough
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Thank You
Questions?
Andrew Scott Senior Market Analyst [email protected]
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Investments in Affordable Housing 2014 - 2019
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Investment in Affordable Housing
Investment in Affordable Housing (IAH) Program:
. The Federal Government through CMHC provides $80.13M per fiscal year to the Province of Ontario . Cost matched by the Province . Total investment of $160.26M per fiscal year . Annual allocations are provided to the 47 Local Service Managers across the province. . Flexibility to design and deliver a range of affordable housing programs to address local housing needs and priorities.
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION