Dufferin County Housing Market Update Orangeville November 24, 2015 Housing market intelligence you can count on Dufferin County Core Housing Need 25% 2006 2011 19.8% 20.1% 20% 18.1% 15.2% 15% 11.7%11.4% 10.5% 9.6% 10% 8.6% 8.7% 5% 0% 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Assessing Housing Need Adequate • Housing does not require any major repairs (no defective plumbing or electrical wiring, or structural repairs to walls, floors or ceilings). Suitable • Enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of residents (e.g. one bedroom for each cohabiting adult, unattached member of 18 years of age and older). Affordable • Housing costs are less than 30 per cent of before tax income. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Core Housing Need Average Household Income by Age and Type, 2011 $120,000 All Households Households in Core Need $109,772 $98,595 $100,000 $97,040 $80,000 $73,448 $70,886 $60,000 $40,000 $32,602 $26,839 $25,619 $23,347 $22,546 $20,000 $0 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Core Housing Need Share of Income Spent on Shelter (%) by Age and Type 70 All Households Households in Core Need 60 56.5% 55.4% 51.6% 50 45.3% 45.0% 40 30 27.4% 25.2% 23.5% 23.3% 21.5% 20 10 0 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Highest among renter and lone parent households Incidence of Core Housing Need, 2011 Renter 34.6% Lone 26.8% parents Non-family 25.6% households Family 7.8% households Owner 6.9% Couples 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Dufferin County 2006, 2011 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2006 2011 2% 0% Source: Statistics Canada (Census of Canada) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Population Growth, Dufferin County, 2006- 2011 25% 20.7% 20.2% 20% 18.4% 15% 10% 9.3% 5% 0% -1.8% -5% -6.5% -10% -15% -13.8% -20% <14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: Statistics Canada CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, 2011 Orangeville and Dufferin County 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Orangeville Dufferin 1% 0% Source: Statistics Canada (Census of Canada) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Median Age of Population Ontario 40.4 Barrie Bradford West Gwillimbury Orangeville 37.3 Dufferin 40.0 Caledon Innisfil New Tecumseth Springwater King Collingwood Penetanguishene Midland Wasaga Beach 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: Statistics Canada (Census 2011) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Migration, Dufferin County, 2006-2011 12,000 10,000 OUT IN 8,000 4,799 6,000 3,018 4,000 2,746 2,265 5,807 2,000 3,724 1,026 2,844 1,565 1,257 0 0-17 years 18-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65+ years Source: Statistics Canada CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Dufferin County Labour Market Dufferin Ontario Participation rate 70.7% 65.5% Employment rate 65.7% 60.1% Unemployment rate 7.0% 8.3% Full-time Share 79.4% 75.3 Source: Statistics Canada – NHS 2011 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Top Industries in Dufferin County Number of Share of Industry Employed Employed Manufacturing 4,065 12.7% Retail trade 3,805 11.9% Health care and social assistance 2,775 8.7% Construction 2,620 8.2% Transportation and warehousing 1,995 6.3% Educational services 1,980 6.2% Public administration 1,890 5.9% Accommodation and food services 1,865 5.8% Wholesale trade 1,825 5.7% Administrative and support, waste management and remediation 1,510 4.7% Other services (except public administration) 1,465 4.6% Professional, scientific and technical services 1,405 4.4% Finance and insurance 1,005 3.1% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 970 3.0% Arts, entertainment and recreation 640 2.0% Information and cultural industries 575 1.8% Real estate and rental and leasing 520 1.6% Source: Statistics Canada – NHS 2011 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Current Housing Stock 100% 11.2% 90% 17.3% 6.8% 80% 5.2% 12.3% 70% 9.4% 60% Apartment 50% Semi-detached Row 40% 76.4% Single-detached 30% 60.9% 20% 10% 0% Dufferin Orangeville Source: Statistics Canada (2011 Census) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Single-detached Homes, 2011 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Orangeville Greater Toronto Area (CMA) 20% 10% 0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Age Distribution, Apartments, 2011 60% 50% Orangeville Greater Toronto Area (CMA) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Living Arrangements By Age, Orangeville, 2011 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Married spouses, common-law partners 40% Living Alone 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville Rate of Homeownership by Age 100% 90% 85.8% 83.6% 84.0% 81.2% 80% 72.5% 70% 60% 56.7% 50% 40% 30% Owner Share of Total Households Total of ShareOwner 20% 10% 0% 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville & Area Home Sales on Record Pace 750 712 700 651 650 635 633 622 608 607 600 563 565 550 500 466 450 400 350 300 Source: CREA YTD=January-October CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Prices Up Strongly in 2015 $450,000 $410,480 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Average MLS® Existing Home MLS®Existing Price Average $250,000 $200,000 Source: CREA CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville & Area Market in High Demand 100 Sales-to-New Listings Ratio, Seasonally Adjusted 90 Sellers Market 80 70 60 50 Balanced Market 40 30 Buyers Market 20 10 Source: CREA CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono Housing Starts 300 Apartment Row Semi-Detached Single 250 200 28 150 18 Number ofStarts Number 100 188 133 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 YTD 2015 YTD Source: CMHC, YTD=Jan-Oct CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono New Home Prices $600,000 $550,000 $523,740 $510,412 $500,000 $450,000 $431,598 $432,977 $413,859 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CMHC Absorption Survey, CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Ontario rental market vacancy rates in Fall 2015 October 2015 vacancy rates by select centres Thunder Bay Windsor Peterborough Hamilton Sudbury St. Catharines-Niagara Brantford Kingston London Ottawa Kitchener-Waterloo Oshawa Toronto 1.6% Barrie Guelph Orangeville 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Orangeville/Mono Rental Market Vacancy Rate Two-bedroom Rent 4.0% $1,100 $1,048 3.5% $1,050 $1,000 3.0% $1,000 $977 $968 $955 2.5% 2.5% $950 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% $900 1.5% 1.4% $850 1.0% $800 0.6% 0.5% $750 0.0% $700 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Average Rents, Studio/Private Unit, Seniors’ Housing, 2015 York Halton Peel Durham Ottawa Waterloo Toronto Wellington/Dufferin $2,858 Muskoka Hamilton Simcoe Peterborough Rest of Simcoe Niagara $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Vacancy Rates, Seniors’ Housing, 2015 Muskoka Waterloo Rest of Simcoe Simcoe York Toronto Wellington/Dufferin 13.4% Peel Ottawa Hamilton Niagara Halton Durham Peterborough 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Thank You Questions? Andrew Scott Senior Market Analyst [email protected] CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Investments in Affordable Housing 2014 - 2019 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Investment in Affordable Housing Investment in Affordable Housing (IAH) Program: . The Federal Government through CMHC provides $80.13M per fiscal year to the Province of Ontario . Cost matched by the Province . Total investment of $160.26M per fiscal year . Annual allocations are provided to the 47 Local Service Managers across the province. Flexibility to design and deliver a range of affordable housing programs to address local housing needs and priorities. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION .