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Profitability Is Improving, Initiate with "Buy" 盈利能力正在改善，首次给予“买入”评级

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Profitability Is Improving, Initiate with 股 票 Research 研 [Table_Title] 洪学宇 Company Report: Giordano International (00709 HK) Terry Hong 究 (86755) 2397 6722 Equity 公司报告： 佐丹奴国际 (00709 HK) [email protected] 6 February 2018 [Table_Summary] Profitability Is Improving, Initiate with "Buy" 盈利能力正在改善，首次给予“买入”评级 Giordano is a renowned international fashion apparel brand. Founded in [Table_Rank] 公 Rating: Buy 1981 in Hong Kong, Giordano provides apparel products for women, men Initial 司 and kids, under a portfolio of brands including Giordano, Giordano Junior, Giordano Ladies, BSX and other brands. The Company operates 2,370 报 评级： 买入 (首次覆盖) stores in over 30 countries as at 30 September 2017. The majority of stores 告 are located in greater China, South Korea, Southeast Asia and the Middle 6[Table_Price-18m TP目标价] : HK$4.75 Company Report East. We forecast 2017-2019 basic EPS to be HK$0.322, HK$0.351 and Share price 股价: HK$3.810 HK$0.378, respectively, representing a CAGR of 11.0%. The Company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2% during 2016-2019, driven by improved channel management and fast-growing e-commerce business. Stock performance GPM is expected to slightly improve as the Company has outsourced part of 股价表现 its production to manufacturers in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Cost-control [Table_QuotePic50.0 % of return ] measures will continue in 2018 and 2019, supporting healthy growth in the 40.0 Company’s bottom line. 30.0 证 Initiate with “Buy” and a TP of HK$4.75. We expect improvement in 20.0 券 告 Giordano's profitability over the next few years, driven by higher GPM and 10.0 well-controlled expenses. Giordano maintains a very high dividend payout 研 报 0.0 ratio, which has lead to very attractive dividend yield. Our TP represents (10.0) 究 究 14.7x, 13.5x and 12.6x 2017, 2018 and 2019 PER, respectively. Risks: 1) lower growth in global apparel industries, 2) competition from other brands, Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 报 研 and 3) unexpected fluctuations in exchange rate between RMB, HKD and HSI Index Giordano Int'l 告 other currencies. 券 Equity Research Report Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 佐丹奴是一个国际知名的时尚服装品牌。佐丹奴于 年成立于香港，提供一系列品牌 证 1981 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 的女装、男装和童装产品，包括佐丹奴、佐丹奴少年、佐丹奴女士、BSX 及其他品牌。截 Abs. % (7.1) (14.4) (9.7) [Tab 至 2017 年 9 月 30 日，公司在全球 30 多个国家共有 2,370 间店铺。这些店铺大部分位于 绝对变动 % 大中华区、南韩、东南亚和中东地区。 Rel. % to HS Index (6.4) (21.4) (40.8) le_I 相对恒指变动 % 消 Avg. Share price(HK$) nfo1 我们预测 2017-2019 年基本每股盈利分别为 0.322 港元、0.351 港元和 0.378 港元，相当 4.1 4.1 4.2 平均股价（港元） 费 Apparel - 于 11.0%的年复合增长率。公司收入预期将在 2016-2019 年保持 3.2%的年复合增长率， ] Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 行 主要由渠道管理改善和快速增长的电商业务所带动。由于公司已将一部分生产外包给越南 业 和孟加拉的生产商，预期毛利率将会有轻微改善。费用控制措施将会延续至 2018 年和 2019 - 年，这将支持净利润的健康增长。 服 装 首次给予“买入”评级以及 4.75 港元的目标价。我们预期公司的盈利能力在接下来几年中将 有所改善，主要由更高的毛利率以及良好的费用控制所带动。佐丹奴维持了非常高的派息 Consumer Sector 比率，这使得公司的股息回报率非常具有吸引力。我们的目标价分别相当于 14.7 倍、13.5 倍和 12.6 倍 2017 年、2018 年和 2019 年市盈率。风险：1) 全球服装行业增速降低；2) 来 自其他品牌的竞争；3) 人民币、港币及其他货币之间的汇率波动超出预期。 Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE [Tab 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 le_I 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (△ %) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2015A 5,381 426 0.271 4.3 14.0 1.777 2.1 0.270 7.1 14.9 nfo2 2016A 5,145 434 0.276 1.9 13.8 1.773 2.1 0.275 7.2 15.6 中] 2017F 5,342 506 0.322 16.6 11.8 1.795 2.1 0.320 8.4 18.1 佐 外 2018F 5,500 552 0.351 9.0 10.9 1.806 2.1 0.350 9.2 19.5 丹 2019F 5,652 593 0.378 7.6 10.1 1.824 2.1 0.370 9.7 20.8 运 奴 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 1,570.4 Major shareholder 大股东 Sino Wealth International 25.0% 国输 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 5,983.2 Free float (%) 自由流通比率(%) 53.0 际 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数(‘000) 1,850.1 FY18 Net gearing (%) FY18 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 4.850 / 3.770 FY18 Est. NAV (HK$) FY18 每股估值（港元） 5.7 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 20 Giordano International (00709 HK) Giordano (00709 International [Table_PageHeader]Giordano International (00709 HK) TABLE OF CONTENTS ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ INDUSTRY ANALYSIS .....................................................................................................................................3 COMPANY ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................................6 6 February 2018 Corporate Profile .........................................................................................................................................6 Brands and Products ...................................................................................................................................6 Distribution Channels ..................................................................................................................................7 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................................................9 Revenue ......................................................................................................................................................9 Gross Profit & Gross Margin ..................................................................................................................... 11 Operating Profit & Operating Margin .........................................................................................................12 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Net Profit & Net Margin ................................................................................................ .............................13 EPS & Dividend .........................................................................................................................................13 Working Capital Management ...................................................................................................................14 ROA & ROE ...............................................................................................................................................14 PEERS COMPARISON AND VALUATION ....................................................................................................16 MAJOR RISKS ................................................................................................................................................18 (00709 HK) Financial Statements and Ratios ..............................................................................................................19 佐丹奴国际 Giordano International Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 20 [Table_PageHeader]Giordano International (00709 HK) INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ The economic environment in the Asia Pacific area is healthy and has been improving throughout 2017. Real GDP growth in major countries and regions in the the Asia Pacific area has shown improvement in recent quarters. Mainland China has maintained a relatively stable and high GDP growth rate, which reached 6.8% in 4Q17 and 6.9% for the full year of 2017, even after the economic slowdown in China in recent years. GDP growth of Hong Kong in the first three quarters of 2017 was 3.9%, the highest in the past six years. According to estimates from the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, GDP growth for Hong Kong for the full year of 2017 may reach 3.7%, higher than the 2.9% average growth during the past ten years. The 6 February 2018 economy of Macau recorded strong growth in 2017 compared to decline from 2014 to 2016, mainly due to the recovery of the gaming industry. GDP of Taiwan recorded YoY growth of 3.1% in 3Q17, which was also the highest during the past two years. According to Academia Sinica, GDP growth of Taiwan for the full year of 2017 is estimated to have reached 2.6%, higher than 1.4% growth in 2016. A similar situation was observed in other countries in Asia Pacific, including Singapore, Australia, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. India and the Philippines have maintained a similar fast growth pace to China during the past few years. According to a report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Asia Pacific area is expected to maintain strong growth in 2018 and 2019, driven by fast growth of emerging markets and developing economies. The OECD has forecasted that emerging economies in Asia are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% during 2018-2020. ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ GDP growth of major countries in the Middle East area has generally maintained stable growth during 2013-2016. According to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic growth of the Middle East was estimated to have increased by 2.5% YoY in 2017, and is expected to record YoY growth of 3.6% and 3.5% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, which will be good for consumption growth in this area. Figure-1: Real GDP Growth in Major Countries & Figure-2: Real GDP Growth in Major Countries & Regions in The Asia Pacific Area (YoY) Regions in The Middle East (YoY) 10% 25% (00709 HK) 8% 20% 6% 15% 佐丹奴国际 4% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% (5%) (2%) (10%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Giordano International Jun/13 Jun/14 Jun/15 Jun/16 Jun/17 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/15 Sep/13 Dec/13 Sep/14 Dec/14 Sep/15 Dec/16 Sep/17 Dec/17 Dec/15 Sep/16 Mainland China Hong Kong Taiwan United Arab Emirates Pakistan Japan Singapore Australia Sri Lanka Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia Thailand Malaysia India Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Census and Statistics
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