The secretariat of the ESCAP is the regional development arm of the United Nations and serves as the main economic and social development centre of the United Nations in Asia and the Pacific. Its mandate is to foster cooperation between its 53 members and 9 associate members. It provides the strategic link between global and country-level programmes and issues. It supports governments of countries in the region in consolidating regional positions and advocates regional approaches to meeting the region’s unique socio-economic challenges in a globalizing world. The ESCAP secretariat is located in Bangkok, Thailand. Please visit the ESCAP website at www.unescap.org for further information. The shaded areas of the map are ESCAP Members and Associate members. Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT) is an open regional network of research and academic institutions specializing in international trade policy and facilitation issues. IDRC, UNCTAD, UNDP, ESCAP and WTO, as core network partners, provide substantive and/or financial support to the network. The Trade and Investment Division of ESCAP, the regional branch of the United Nations for Asia and the Pacific, provides the Secretariat of the network and a direct regional link to trade policymakers and other international organizations. For more information, please contact the ARTNeT Secretariat at [email protected] or visit www.artnetontrade.org. Cover illustration: Chaveemon Sukpaibool and Panjai Limchupong i Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia Edited by Simon J. Evenett, Mia Mikic and Ravi Ratnayake Papers presented at the 5th Anniversary Conference of ARTNeT “Trade-led Growth in Times of Crisis”, 2-3 November 2009 United Nations ESCAP New York, 2011 ii Trade-led growth: A sound strategies for Asia A Study by the Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade United Nations Publication Sales No. E.11.II.F.4 Copyright © United Nations 2011 All rights reserved ISBN: 978-92-1-120621-0 ST/ESCAP/2618 For further information on this publication, please contact: Mr. Ravi Ratnayake Director Trade and Investment Division ESCAP Rajadamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200, Thailand Tel: (66-2) 288-1902 Fax: (66-2) 288-1027, 288-3066 e-mail: [email protected] The opinions, figures and estimates set forth in this publication are the responsibility of the authors, and should not necessarily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of the frontiers or boundaries. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. All material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgment is required, together with a copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint. The use of the publication for any commercial purposes, including resale, is prohibited, unless permission is first obtained from Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations, New York. Request for permission should state the purpose and the extent of reproduction. iii Contents page Preface and acknowledgements ........................................................................... ix List of contributors................................................................................................. xi Abbreviations and acronyms ................................................................................ xiii Part One: Trade in times of global imbalances and crises I. A trade theory explanation of global imbalances ..................................... 3 Alan V. Deardorff II. World trade regime, World Trade Organization and large-scale crises 7 Patrick A. Messerlin Part Two: Trade-led recovery and production networks III. Resiliency of production networks in Asia: Evidence from the Asian crisis ............................................................................................................... 29 Ayako Obashi IV. Role of global production networks in understanding the impacts of the macroeconomic stimulus ...................................................................... 53 Tereso S. Tullao, Mitzie Irene P. Conchada and John Paolo R. Rivera Part Three: Multilateralizing regionalism in the Asia-Pacific region: Strengths, weaknesses and the political economy V. Trans-Pacific strategic economic partnership agreement: High standard or missed opportunity? ................................................................................ 79 Henry Gao VI. A comparison of the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement and the P4 Agreement .............................................................. 97 Ann Capling VII. Political economy of multilateralization in Asia ........................................ 113 John Ravenhill VIII. From the P4 Agreement to the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Explaining expansion interests in the Asia-Pacific region ......................................... 139 Deborah Elms iv Contents (continued) page Part Four: Institutions and trade enhancement IX. Do institutions matter for trade in Asian countries? ................................ 165 Prabir De X. National and supranational institutions and trade ................................... 189 Pahan Prasada Part Five: Use of computable general equilibrium analysis for trade policymaking XI. Scope for world trade reform to ease Asian poverty and inequality ...... 217 Kym Anderson XII. Trade reforms under Doha and income distribution in South Asia ........ 241 John Gilbert XIII. Will trade liberalization in least developed countries help during the crisis? Evidence from the Lao People’s Democratic Republic ............... 259 Phouphet Kyophilavong XIV. Trade and sectoral impacts of the global financial crisis – a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis .................................................. 281 Anna Strutt and Terrie Walmsley Part Six: Conference reports Report by Conference Rapporteur, Simon J. Evenett ............................................. 311 Report by ARTNeT Secretariat ................................................................................. 316 v List of Tables page Chapter II 1. Tariff water and the six first months of the crisis ............................................ 10 2. Registrations in the French car markets, 2008 and 2009 .............................. 18 Chapter III 1. Exporter-importer product pairs – number of years active, 1993-2007 ......... 33 2. Number of spells for exporter-importer product pairs .................................... 33 3. Length of spells for bilateral trade relationships at the product-line level...... 34 4. Estimated Kaplan-Meier survival rates for intra-East Asian trade in machinery ........................................................................................................ 34 5. Cox proportional hazards estimates for intra-East Asian trade in machinery 38 6. Number of trade relationships continued/discontinued in the next year ........ 40 7. Robustness check for the Cox proportional hazards estimates: Effects of the Asian crisis ................................................................................................ 40 8. Estimated Kaplan-Meier failure rates for intra-East Asian trade in machinery 41 9. Composition of East Asian exports by destination ......................................... 45 Chapter IV 1. Share of East Asian exports/imports to/from the United States ..................... 55 2. Share of East Asian exports/imports to/from the United States ..................... 55 3. Share of East Asian exports/imports to/from the European Union ................ 55 4. Share of East Asian exports/imports to/from the European Union ................ 56 5. Balance of payments ...................................................................................... 56 Chapter VII 1. Bilateral/minilateral PTAs involving Asian countries ....................................... 120 2. Share of ASEAN country exports to other ASEAN economies making use of AFT .............................................................................................................. 122 3. Gains from abolition of tariffs under TPP (New Zealand dollars) ................... 129 Chapter IX 1. Global rankings of Asian countries in governance indicators ........................ 172 2. OLS (cross-section pooled) regression results .............................................. 176 vi List of Tables (continued) page Chapter X 1. Correlation between per capita GDP and domestic institutional quality variables .......................................................................................................... 197 2. Summary statistics: domestic institutional quality variables .......................... 197 3. Correlation between scaled governance score and its sub-indices ............... 198 4. Description of national institutional quality scores by OECD membership .... 198 5. Political and trading association membership ................................................ 199 6. Description of the dependent variables .......................................................... 199 7. Different functional forms and their specifications implemented ................... 201 8. Implementation of fixed effect model