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Peak Energy, Peak Oil, and the Rise of Renewables: an Executive’S Guide to the Global Energy System

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Peak Energy, Peak Oil, and the Rise of Renewables: an Executive’S Guide to the Global Energy System Peak energy, peak oil, and the rise of renewables: An executive’s guide to the global energy system Global energy demand is headed toward a plateau over the next ten to 20 years, as the world focuses on electrification, energy efficiency, and more service-driven economic growth. © jia yu/Getty Images August 2019 In this episode of the McKinsey Podcast, Simon Simon London: This is quite historically significant. London speaks with senior partners Namit Sharma Isn’t it? This is like an epochal moment. and Christer Tryggestad about their research in the Global Energy Perspective 2019 and where global Namit Sharma: I think it’s very significant. There energy demand is headed in the decades to come. are three or four things driving it. First, the shape of GDP is changing. Christer talked about the past Simon London: Hello, and welcome to this 100 years, it was rapid initialization, first in the episode of the McKinsey Podcast, with me, Simon big Western economies, then China driving it in London. Today we’ll be talking about energy—the the early 2000s. Going forward we will see more world’s appetite for energy and the sources that services driving our GDP and economy. The energy feed it, from oil and gas to wind and solar from that you need for services is inherently different or hydroelectric to hydrogen. It’s a big topic. The less than the energy used for the rapid initialization. numbers involved are, of course, enormous, and so are the implications, not only for economics and Second, and we all see it, we continue to get more industry structure but also for carbon emissions efficient in how we use energy. We all have double- and climate. To talk through the facts and paned windows, so our heating is more efficient. forecasts, I caught up in Amsterdam with McKinsey We have appliances that continue to get more senior partners Namit Sharma and Christer efficient. Our cars, including internal combustion Tryggestad. Namit and Christer, welcome to the engine or electric vehicles, they continue to get podcast. Thanks for doing this. more efficient. That energy efficiency continues to drive down the overall demand for energy. Namit Sharma: Very happy to be here, Simon. Another big trend is electrification. So not only Christer Tryggestad: Thanks a lot for the invitation. do we get more efficient, everything is getting electrified, from road transport to people coming Simon London: So we’re going to be talking about into the middle class and buying more appliances. global energy demand at the highest level, so Electricity is something that we think will grow where it goes from here. In my not-very-educated, twice the amount where it is today. That electricity layperson’s way, if you would ask me to guess, I is being powered by renewable sources. would say energy demand probably tracks global GDP, plus or minus. Is that right? All this together leads to a point where, yes, we will continue to grow our GDP; yes, the living standards Christer Tryggestad: Historically, that has been will rise, but the energy that we will need will not a correct observation. If you look at the last 100 track at the same growth rate. We will just need years, we’ve seen energy demand grow around two less energy. And at some point, I think around to three percent per year, very much in line with 2040, 2050, the energy demand will plateau. global economic growth. Going forward, though, we see a delinking or decoupling of energy demand Simon London: It will actually plateau? So we think growth and economic growth. global energy demand will actually reach a peak? While we see the economy continuing to grow Namit Sharma: Yeah. By 2040, 2050. at a fairly steady pace, we see energy demand decelerating quite significantly. For the next 15 Simon London: Wow. So, Christer, without getting years, maybe down to a bit less than a percent per too nerdy, just explain the research and what’s year from two to three percent. And then from the behind it. What do you mean by the reference case? mid-2030s we even see a flattening or a plateauing of energy demand. Christer Tryggestad: Behind a lot of the work we do on the Global Energy Perspective at McKinsey 2 Peak energy, peak oil, and the rise of renewables: An executive’s guide to the global energy system is what I call a “big energy demand model” where the CO2 emissions, which is another driver along we model the demand for energy across segments. with efficiency. So it could be road transport, it could be industry, et cetera. We do that across the fuel types, so coal, Namit Sharma: If you think about how we have gas, renewable, and we do that globally. We do it been using fuels, we have been burning or across 150 countries, regions across the world. combusting them. Now burning or combustion inherently is an inefficient process. And again, I All that modeling is done bottom-up, where we think it might not be true and you might be able to look at the economics. It’s basically economics make it more efficient, but inherently it’s different driven, whether you build a power plant or whether when you’re actually generating energy through you buy a car, it’s driven by economic models other sources than burning or combusting. on every single cell within that demand cube if you will. We don’t take into account regulation, Simon London: It’s the combination of except existing regulation, which is included with electrification with the rise of renewables. You forecasted trends. put those two things together and it has quite a big, overall impact on how much energy needs Simon London: But we can’t predict where to go into the system. That’s a great segue into regulation is going to go in future. renewables. Just talk a little bit more, Christer, about what’s going on. How fast are renewables Christer Tryggestad: Exactly. What we’re growing, and why? doing then is to say that from the time when the regulation is not forecasted anymore, we have no Christer Tryggestad: If you look at the past subsidies, we have no incentives. It’s all based on 20 years or so, renewables have grown from fundamental economics. practically nothing, maybe 5, 6 percent of the installed capacity to now close to 50 percent of Simon London: Namit mentioned electrification new installments. If you look forward, you will see a earlier. And the electrification of both industrial situation where two-thirds, or even more than that, and consumer segments has been a big driver. of the power generated in the world is renewable Again, as a layperson, I’m thinking to myself, “Why by 2050. does it matter whether I’m heating my home with electricity or natural gas? Why does it matter Simon London: Oh, wow. whether I’m powering my car with electricity, or gasoline? I’m still traveling the same number Christer Tryggestad: This has historically been of miles.” Is there something inherent about driven by regulation, but right now and forward electrification which reduces demand for energy? looking it’s driven by economics. For every single country and region we look at, the cheapest source Christer Tryggestad: There’s an inherent of new power-generation capacity is a renewable increased efficiency. Electrical engines are source. It’s either solar or wind, depending a bit on inherently more efficient than combustion engines. the market. Absolutely. That is true. That’s also the main driver of why we see that while the demand for electricity It’s even more strong when you look at 2030, doubles over the next 25, 35 years, the demand for because then you’ll have the situation where it other fuels is practically flat from today until 2050. is cheaper to build new renewable generation capacity than it is to use the existing coal- or It’s the efficiency, as you say. It’s also this potential gas-based generation capacity. That’s an obvious cleanness. If you take electricity and you make it turning point. from clean sources, you also get the lowering of Peak energy, peak oil, and the rise of renewables: An executive’s guide to the global energy system 3 We used to say that the cost game is practically Simon London: Is there a role for hydrogen in all won by renewables. The discussion is no longer on of this? I ask that question because we’re here in the cost of the technology itself; it’s now becoming Amsterdam, and I took a ride in a Tesla from the much more of a system-integration discussion. airport, which was interesting, so electric. I was Because renewables are what we call intermittent— talking to my driver about whether he liked his they produce power whenever the sun shines or electric car, which he did. But he was convinced when the wind blows. You need to make sure that that the automotive fuel of the future was hydrogen you have power when you need it. That is the whole and gave me a long explanation as to why. Where system-integration topic, where batteries or other does hydrogen stand in this? flexible sources of power generation are needed to complement the renewables. Christer Tryggestad: My view is there’s a big role for hydrogen, but not necessarily in light-vehicle Simon London: I must say, again, it’s an eye- road transport.
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