Oil price outlook to 2030 Executive Summary • Strong world GDP growth from 2002 to 2007 led to a steady rise in global oil demand. Coupled with more modest increases in oil output and capacity levels, and the impact of a gradually weakening US dollar, this led to an accelerating rise in oil prices. World demand for oil peaked in the first quarter of 2008, prior to the onset of the global financial crisis and subsequent recession that saw oil demand decline in both 2008 and 2009, despite a pick-up in the latter part of last year and in Q1 2010. • As a result of the sharp swings in demand, oil prices have been volatile. The price of Brent crude peaked at US$149pb in July 2008, the culmination of a 10-year rise from lows of under US$10pb in 1998, but then subsided to under US$40pb at the end of 2008, a slide of almost 75% in less than six months. Greater stability in the world economy and OPEC quota cuts led to a steady recovery in oil prices through 2009, ending the year at around US$75pb but averaging US$62pb, a 36% fall from the 2008 average. And the price has risen further in early 2010, to over US$80pb at April but then slipping to US$70pb in May. • The price of oil in real terms set a new record high in mid 2008, surpassing the level in 1980 that resulted from the Iranian revolution and the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war. Despite the sharp slide in the latter part of 2008, the real oil price remains comfortably above the levels that prevailed during the 20-year period from 1985 to 2005 and that resulted in low oil industry investment over the period. • The key influence on oil prices over the next year will be the pace of world growth. Oxford Economics forecasts a modest pick-up in world growth, with global GDP seen growing close to 4% on a PPP basis this year after falling by about 1% in 2009. The fastest growth will be in the emerging markets, led China and India in particular, while OECD countries will experience a sluggish recovery. As a result, although oil demand in non-OECD countries is forecast to grow quite strongly, OECD oil demand is expected to be broadly unchanged in 2010, held down by weak growth and further gains in energy efficiency and use of alternative energy sources. In addition, OECD inventories are currently also at relatively high levels. • This demand scenario suggests that oil prices are unlikely to climb significantly further this year, with rising oil output also likely to act as a restraint. The improving global economy and the higher oil price have meant that OPEC countries are now raising production, with output currently running at around 29 mb/d, the highest for over a year, and with the prospect of further increases. Non-OPEC output remains broadly stable, with higher output in FSU countries offset by lower production in Norway, the UK and Mexico. • Beyond 2010, demand for oil will still be largely driven by the pace of the world economic recovery but with other factors beginning to play an increasingly important role, including efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the growing importance of gas and increasing use of alternative energy sources such as nuclear and biofuels. As a result, the level of global oil intensity will continue to fall steadily in the coming years, as will the share of oil in global GDP. June 2010 Oil price outlook to 2030 • With global GDP growth seen accelerating to almost 5% in 2012 and 2013 but then dropping back to some 4-4.5% pa in the second half of the decade, Oxford Economics expects world oil demand to grow by 1.2% pa over the period to 2020, with much of the increase coming from the emerging markets, led by China and the rest of emerging Asia. • Despite the failure of the December 2009 Copenhagen summit to deliver global commitments to cut carbon emissions, growing pressure to combat global warming will see many countries trying to curb demand for hydrocarbons, including the growing use of carbon taxes, energy efficiency gains and use of renewable energy sources. But the absence of coordinated global action to stem the rise in carbon emissions means that oil demand will continue to rise in many emerging markets. • This demand profile is likely to see the call on OPEC rising in the years ahead, especially as non-OPEC oil output is likely to remain broadly static as a result of the lack of investment in recent years and ageing oilfields. Moreover, new oil resources are expected to be in more remote and less accessible areas, thereby involving greater exploitation and transportation costs and longer lead times. As a result, OPEC capacity is expected to rise steadily, with some countries such as Nigeria and Iraq hoping to raise output significantly and other smaller members, seeking to accelerate economic development, also likely to press for higher quotas. • The medium-term supply and demand trends are expected to result in world oil prices rising by about 2½% pa in real terms over the period to 2020, to US$100pb in 2008 prices, with nominal Brent crude forecast to climb to around US$100pb in 2015 and to about US$130pb in 2020. • Over the longer term, the pace of oil demand growth is expect to ease slightly, to 1% pa during 2020-2030 from 1.2% pa in 2010-2020. Again, much of this demand growth will be led by the emerging markets, with China’s role in the world economy – overtaking the US in terms of GDP on a PPP basis after 2020 and becoming the second largest oil consumer by 2030 – meaning that demand for primary fuel sources will continue to climb. • As a result, we forecast the price of Brent crude in nominal terms will climb to around US$180pb in 2030, slightly below the projections of both the IEA and the EIA. In constant 2008 US$ terms, we expect Brent crude to be nearly US$110pb, continuing the steady trend increase since the lows of the 1990s. • There are many risks to the central forecast. In the short term, the most important risk is that the world economy grows more slowly than expected, which in turn would probably keep oil demand and prices lower than expected in the next few years. Moreover, OECD inventories are also relatively high currently, which could further undermine any recovery in demand. • But a stronger than expected recovery in the world economy this year, coupled with continued OPEC quota discipline, could see prices spike even higher in the short term, perhaps hitting US$100pb later in 2010. Medium-term upside risks include further tensions in the Middle East, which currently appear most likely to be linked to the situation in Iran, or in other major OPEC producers, such as Nigeria or Venezuela. Currency movements are also a significant risk, with any extended period of US$ weakness likely to exert greater than expected upward pressure on prices, as was the case during 2003-2008. June 2010 Oil price outlook to 2030 Recent oil market developments… The period of strong world GDP growth from 2002 to 2007 led to a steady rise in global oil demand. Coupled with only modest increases in oil output and capacity levels, and the impact of a gradually weakening US dollar, this led to an accelerating rise in oil prices. World demand for oil then peaked in the first quarter of 2008, prior to the onset of the financial crisis and many of the leading industrialised economies entering recession later that year. The initial falls in demand reflected not only the deterioration in the global economy but also a demand response to the steeply rising level of real oil prices. As recession became deeper and more widespread, oil demand weakened in most regions in late 2008 and as a result world oil demand fell in 2008 overall, the first annual decline since the early 1980s. Demand then fell more sharply in the first half of 2009. But as the downturn started to come to an end in the leading industrialised economies in mid-2009, together with unexpectedly strong growth in China and India that spread into other emerging Asian economies, oil demand began to rise again in the second half of 2009, although this was not enough to prevent a second successive full-year drop in demand, and in Q1 2010. World oil prices climbed steeply in 2007 and the first half of 2008 prior to the start of the financial market crisis, the global recession and the associated collapse in demand for oil. The peak in oil prices came in July 2008, when Brent crude reached US$149 per barrel (pb), the culmination of a 10-year rise from lows of under US$10pb in late-1998. But there was then an equally sharp downturn in prices as world demand collapsed – Brent crude fell to under US$40pb at the end of 2008, a decline of almost 75% in less than six months. Mounting evidence of greater stability in the world economy, together with greater output discipline from OPEC members in response to reduced quotas, led to a recovery in prices during 2009 to end the year at US$75pb and averaging US$62pb, down 36% from the 2008 average. The price recovery continued in early 2010, reaching US$85pb in April before slipping back to US$70pb in May.