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Cover:Example_Design 23/09/2009 10:38 Page 1 An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production global oil in peak near-term for a evidence the assessment of An Global Oil Depletion An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production UK Energy Research Centre September 2009 UK ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE 58 Prince’s Gate Exhibition Road London SW7 2PG tel: +44 (0)20 7594 1574 email: [email protected] www.ukerc.ac.uk UK ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE Cover:Example_Design 23/09/2009 10:38 Page 2 An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production A report produced by the Technology and Policy Assessment function of the UK Energy Research Centre Steve Sorrell Jamie Speirs Roger Bentley Adam Brandt Richard Miller August 2009 ISBN number 1-903144-0-35 Prelims_Intro:UKERC 23/09/2009 10:31 Page i Preface This report has been produced by the UK Energy Research Centre’s Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) function. The TPA was set up to address key controversies in the energy field through comprehensive assessments of the current state of knowledge. It aims to provide authoritative reports that set high standards for rigour and transparency, while explaining results in a way that is useful to policymakers. This report summarises the main conclusions from the TPA’s assessment of evidence for global oil depletion. The subject of this assessment was chosen after consultation with energy sector stakeholders and upon the recommendation of the TPA Advisory Group, which is comprised of independent experts from government, academia and the private sector. The assessment addresses the following question: What evidence is there to support the proposition that the global supply of ‘conventional oil’ will be constrained by physical depletion before 2030? The Synthesis Report presents the main findings of this assessment. More detailed results are contained in seven in-depth Technical Reports which are available to download from the UKERC website1: n Technical Report 1: Data sources and issues n Technical Report 2: Definition and interpretation of reserve estimates n Technical Report 3: Nature and importance of reserve growth n Technical Report 4: Decline rates and depletion rates n Technical Report 5: Methods of estimating ultimately recoverable resources n Technical Report 6: Methods of forecasting future oil supply n Technical Report 7: Comparison of global supply forecasts Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term The assessment was led by the Steve Sorrell of the Sussex Energy Group (SEG) at the University of Sussex and Jamie Speirs of the Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICEPT). The contributors were: n Erica Thompson, Grantham Institute, Imperial College (Technical Reports 2 and 3) n Adam Brandt University of California, Berkeley (Technical Report 6) n Richard Miller, Independent Consultant (Technical Reports 4 and 7) n Roger Bentley, Department of Cybernetics, University of Reading (Technical Report 7) n Godfrey Boyle, Director, EERU, The Open University (Technical Report 7) n Simon Wheeler, Independent Consultant (Technical Report 7) 1 http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page=TPA%20Overview i Prelims_Intro:UKERC 23/09/2009 10:31 Page ii Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term ii Prelims_Intro:UKERC 23/09/2009 10:31 Page iii About UKERC The UK Energy Research Centre’s mission is to be the UK's pre-eminent centre of research and source of authoritative information and leadership on sustainable energy systems. It undertakes world-class research addressing the whole-systems aspects of energy supply and use while developing and maintaining the means to enable cohesive research in energy. UKERC is funded by the UK Research Councils. Acknowledgements We are very grateful for the comments received from our two peer reviewers, Robert Kaufmann (University of Pennsylvania) and Lucia van Geuns (Clingendael International Energy Programme). Useful comments and advice have also been received from our Expert Group, namely Ken Chew (IHS Energy), John Mitchell (Chatham House), Chris Skrebowski (Peak Oil Consulting), Michael Smith (Energyfiles), Paul Stevens (Chatham House) and David Strahan. We are also very grateful to IHS Energy for allowing the publication of data from their PEPS database. Jean Laherrère provided useful comments on an early draft of Technical Report 5 while Fabiana Gordon (Imperial College Statistical Advisory Service) assisted with the statistical analysis. The comparison of forecasts in Technical Report 7 would not have been possible without the model descriptions and data provided by Michael Smith (Energyfiles), Jörg Schindler and Werner Zittel (Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik), Chris Skrebowski (Peak Oil Consulting), Leif Magne Meling (StatoilHydro), Laurent Maurel (Total Exploration and Supply), Colin Campbell (ASPO), John Staub (US Energy Information Administration), Garry Brennand (OPEC) and David Freedman (Shell E&P). The authors of Technical Report 7 would also like to thank Fatih Birol (IEA), Nimat Abu Al-Soof and colleagues (OPEC), Hilmar Rempel (BGR), James Smith (Shell), Ken Chew (IHS Energy), Richard Hardman and Jean Laherrère. Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term We are grateful for the guidance and patience provided by Jim Skea (UKERC Research Director) and Rob Gross (Head of UKERC TPA function). Thanks also to Philip Greenacre (UKERC TPA) for assistance with drafting and Phil Heptonstall (UKERC TPA) for copy editing. The above individuals represent a range of views on the risks of global oil depletion and none are responsible for the content of this report. iii Prelims_Intro:UKERC 23/09/2009 10:31 Page iv Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term iv Prelims_Intro:UKERC 23/09/2009 10:31 Page v Executive Summary Abundant supplies of cheap liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies and at present the vast majority of these fuels are obtained from ‘conventional’ oil. But a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near-term peak and subsequent terminal decline in the production of conventional oil as a result of the physical depletion of the resource. Many believe that this could lead to substantial economic dislocation, with alternative sources being unable to ‘fill the gap’ on the timescale required. In contrast, other commentators argue that liquid fuels production will be sufficient to meet global demand well into the 21st century, as rising oil prices stimulate exploration and discovery, the enhanced recovery of conventional oil and the development of ‘non-conventional’ resources such as oil sands. The first group claims that physical depletion will have a dominant influence on future oil supply, while the latter emphasise how depletion can be mitigated by investment and new technology. A concern for both is whether the relevant organisations will have the incentive and ability to invest. Despite much popular attention, the growing debate on ‘peak oil’ has had relatively little influence on energy and climate policy. Most governments exhibit little concern about oil depletion, several oil companies have been publicly dismissive and the majority of energy analysts remain sceptical. But beginning in 2003, a combination of strong demand growth, rising prices, declining production in key regions and ominous warnings from market analysts has increased concerns about oil security. While the global economic recession has brought oil prices down from their record high of July 2008, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning of a near-term ‘supply crunch’ owing to the cancellation and delay of many upstream investment projects. There is a growing consensus that the age of cheap oil is coming to an end. Without sufficient investment in demand reduction and substitute sources of energy, a decline in the production of conventional oil could have a major impact on the global economy. In addition, the transition away from conventional oil will have important economic, environmental and security implications which need to be anticipated if the Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term appropriate investments are to be made. While the timing of a future peak (or plateau) in conventional oil production has been a focus of debate, what appears equally important is the rate at which production may be expected to decline following the peak and hence the rate at which demand reduction and alternative sources of supply may be required. In addition, there are uncertainties over the extent to which the market may be relied upon to signal oil depletion in a sufficiently timely fashion. Overview This report addresses the following question: What evidence is there to support the proposition that the global supply of ‘conventional oil’ will be constrained by physical depletion before 2030? The report is based upon a thorough review of the current state of knowledge on oil depletion, supplemented by data analysis and guided by an Expert Group. A total of seven v Prelims_Intro:UKERC 23/09/2009 10:31 Page vi supporting reports have been produced and are available to download from the UKERC website. This synthesis report clarifies the concepts and definitions relevant to the ‘peak oil’ debate, identifies the strengths and weaknesses of different methods for estimating the size of oil resources and for forecasting future supply, highlights the degree of uncertainty associated with key issues, compares contemporary forecasts of oil supply and assesses the risk of a near-term peak in oil production.
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