DOCSLIB.ORG

Three Essays on Oil Scarcity, Global Warming and Energy Prices Matthew Riddle University of Massachusetts Amherst, [email protected]

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Three Essays on Oil Scarcity, Global Warming and Energy Prices Matthew Riddle University of Massachusetts Amherst, Mriddle@Econs.Umass.Edu University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Open Access Dissertations 5-2012 Three essays on oil scarcity, global warming and energy prices Matthew Riddle University of Massachusetts Amherst, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_dissertations Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Riddle, Matthew, "Three essays on oil scarcity, global warming and energy prices" (2012). Open Access Dissertations. 596. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_dissertations/596 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Open Access Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THREE ESSAYS ON OIL SCARCITY, GLOBAL WARMING AND ENERGY PRICES A Dissertation Presented by MATTHEW RIDDLE Submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Massachusetts Amherst in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY May 2012 Department of Economics © Copyright by Matthew Riddle 2012 All Rights Reserved THREE ESSAYS ON OIL SCARCITY, GLOBAL WARMING AND ENERGY PRICES A Dissertation presented by MATTHEW RIDDLE Approved as to style and content by: __________________________________________________________ James K. Boyce, Chair __________________________________________________________ Michael Ash, Member __________________________________________________________ Erin Baker, Member ________________________________________________ Michael Ash, Department Chair Economics ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my dissertation chair, James Boyce for his guidance and support throughout my time at UMass, and my committee members Michael Ash and Erin Baker for their thoughtful suggestions. I would also like to thank my wife, Allison, for her ideas and support. I also would like to thank the E3 Network and the Political Economy Research Institute for providing fellowships that helped support my dissertation research. iv ABSTRACT THREE ESSAYS ON OIL SCARCITY, GLOBAL WARMING AND ENERGY PRICES MAY 2012 MATTHEW RIDDLE, B.A. CARLETON COLLEGE Ph.D UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST Directed by: Professor James K. Boyce This dissertation is composed of three essays. In the first essay, I construct a supply and demand model for crude oil markets. I then fit the model to historical price and quantity data to be able to project future oil prices. Ex-post forecasts using this model predict historical price trends more accurately than most oil forecasting models. The second essay incorporates the supply and demand model from the previous paper into a complex systems model that also includes oil futures markets. Adaptive-agent investors in futures markets choose from a set of rules for predicting future prices that includes the rational expectations equilibrium rule, as well as rules that rely on more short-term information. The set of available rules evolves following a genetic algorithm; agents choose which rules to follow based on their past performance. While outcomes vary depending on the specific assumptions made, under a plausible set of assumptions investors can fail to anticipate shortages properly, leading to significant price spikes that would not occur in the rational expectations equilibrium. The last essay addresses the impacts of carbon cap-and-trade policies on consumers. I calculate how higher carbon prices would affect the prices of different consumer goods, how consumers would respond to the price changes, and how the price changes, along with revenue recycling, would impact consumers of different income levels. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................ iv ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ x LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Energy in historical context ....................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Problems with fossil fuel consumption .................................................................. 1 1.2 Oil scarcity ................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Market anticipation of future scarcity ...................................................................... 4 1.4 Climate change policy ................................................................................................. 5 2. MODELING OIL MARKETS AND FORECASTING OIL PRICES .................... 7 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 7 2.1.1 Predicting price paths ............................................................................................. 8 2.1.1.1 Theoretical models .......................................................................................... 9 2.1.1.2 Statistical analyses of prices ......................................................................... 11 2.1.1.3 Modeling Supply and Demand ..................................................................... 12 2.2 The Model .................................................................................................................. 13 2.2.1 Demand Function ................................................................................................. 15 2.2.1.1 Relationship with time .................................................................................. 15 2.2.1.2 Demand response to prices ........................................................................... 17 2.2.2 Supply Function ................................................................................................... 21 2.2.2.1 Short-run supply function ............................................................................. 23 2.2.2.2 Long-run supply changes .............................................................................. 25 2.2.2.3 Hubbert’s curve ............................................................................................. 28 2.2.3 Determining parameters of the model.................................................................. 29 2.2.3.1 Demand parameters ...................................................................................... 30 2.2.3.2 Supply parameters ......................................................................................... 34 2.2.3.3 Estimation of remaining parameters ............................................................. 37 vi 2.2.3.3.1 Data ........................................................................................................ 38 2.2.3.3.2 Setting up the regressions ...................................................................... 39 2.2.4 Price Setting ......................................................................................................... 44 2.3 Model output ............................................................................................................. 46 2.3.1 Projections............................................................................................................ 46 2.3.1.1 Quantity Forecast .......................................................................................... 46 2.3.1.2 Price Forecast ................................................................................................ 47 2.3.1.3 Sensitivity analysis........................................................................................ 49 2.3.2 Simulations .......................................................................................................... 51 2.3.3 Testing effectiveness of forecasts ........................................................................ 53 2.4 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 58 3. A MODEL OF INVESTOR BEHAVIOR IN CRUDE OIL FUTURES MARKETS ...................................................................................................................... 60 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 60 3.1.1 Anticipating future shortages ............................................................................... 60 3.1.1.1 Questions about ability of market to anticipate future shortage ................... 62 3.1.2 Futures markets .................................................................................................... 63 3.1.2.1 Role of futures markets in aiding price prediction ........................................ 65 3.1.3 Modeling investor behavior in futures markets ................................................... 67 3.1.3.1 Rational actor models ................................................................................... 69 3.1.3.2 Behavioral models of stock markets ............................................................. 70 3.1.3.3 Behavioral models
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Oil Depletion Protocol
    1 THE RIMINI PROTOCOL an Oil Depletion Protocol ~ Heading Off Economic Chaos and Political Conflict During the Second Half of the Age of Oil As proposed at the 2003 Pio Manzu Conference, and to be the central theme of the next Pio Manzu Conference, Rimini, Italy on October 28-30, 2005 2 INTRODUCTION Soaring oil prices have drawn attention to the issue of the relative supply and demand for crude oil, which is the World’s premier fuel, having a central place in the modern economy. Knowledge of petroleum geology has made great advances in recent years, such that the conditions under which this resource was formed in Nature are now well understood. In fact, it transpires that the bulk of the World’s current production comes from deposits formed in two brief and exceptional epochs, 90 and 150 million years ago. This fact alone tells us that oil is a finite resource, which in turn means that it is subject to depletion. People ask: Are we running out of oil ? The simple answer is: Yes, we started doing that when we produced the first barrel. But Running Out is not the main issue as the resource will not be finally exhausted for very many years. The much more relevant question is: When will production reach a peak and begin to decline? Depletion: Growth, Peak and Decline Much debate and study has focused on the calculation of the date of peak, but this too misses the main point. It is not an isolated or pronounced peak but merely the highest point on a long and gentle production curve.
    [Show full text]
  • Secure Fuels from Domestic Resources ______Profiles of Companies Engaged in Domestic Oil Shale and Tar Sands Resource and Technology Development
    5th Edition Secure Fuels from Domestic Resources ______________________________________________________________________________ Profiles of Companies Engaged in Domestic Oil Shale and Tar Sands Resource and Technology Development Prepared by INTEK, Inc. For the U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Petroleum Reserves Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves Fifth Edition: September 2011 Note to Readers Regarding the Revised Edition (September 2011) This report was originally prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy in June 2007. The report and its contents have since been revised and updated to reflect changes and progress that have occurred in the domestic oil shale and tar sands industries since the first release and to include profiles of additional companies engaged in oil shale and tar sands resource and technology development. Each of the companies profiled in the original report has been extended the opportunity to update its profile to reflect progress, current activities and future plans. Acknowledgements This report was prepared by INTEK, Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Petroleum Reserves, Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves (DOE/NPOSR) as a part of the AOC Petroleum Support Services, LLC (AOC- PSS) Contract Number DE-FE0000175 (Task 30). Mr. Khosrow Biglarbigi of INTEK, Inc. served as the Project Manager. AOC-PSS and INTEK, Inc. wish to acknowledge the efforts of representatives of the companies that provided information, drafted revised or reviewed company profiles, or addressed technical issues associated with their companies, technologies, and project efforts. Special recognition is also due to those who directly performed the work on this report. Mr. Peter M. Crawford, Director at INTEK, Inc., served as the principal author of the report.
    [Show full text]
  • Oil Depletion and the Energy Efficiency of Oil Production
    Sustainability 2011, 3, 1833-1854; doi:10.3390/su3101833 OPEN ACCESS sustainability ISSN 2071-1050 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Article Oil Depletion and the Energy Efficiency of Oil Production: The Case of California Adam R. Brandt Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Green Earth Sciences 065, 367 Panama St., Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-2220, USA; E-Mail: [email protected]; Fax: +1-650-724-8251 Received: 10 June 2011; in revised form: 1 August 2011 / Accepted: 5 August 2011 / Published: 12 October 2011 Abstract: This study explores the impact of oil depletion on the energetic efficiency of oil extraction and refining in California. These changes are measured using energy return ratios (such as the energy return on investment, or EROI). I construct a time-varying first-order process model of energy inputs and outputs of oil extraction. The model includes factors such as oil quality, reservoir depth, enhanced recovery techniques, and water cut. This model is populated with historical data for 306 California oil fields over a 50 year period. The model focuses on the effects of resource quality decline, while technical efficiencies are modeled simply. Results indicate that the energy intensity of oil extraction in California increased significantly from 1955 to 2005. This resulted in a decline in the life-cycle EROI from ≈6.5 to ≈3.5 (measured as megajoules (MJ) delivered to final consumers per MJ primary energy invested in energy extraction, transport, and refining). Most of this decline in energy returns is due to increasing need for steam-based thermal enhanced oil recovery, with secondary effects due to conventional resource depletion (e.g., increased water cut).
    [Show full text]
  • Peak Oil Theory in Canada's Globe and Mail
    Document generated on 09/30/2021 3:37 p.m. Scientia Canadensis Canadian Journal of the History of Science, Technology and Medicine Revue canadienne d'histoire des sciences, des techniques et de la médecine Peak Oil Theory in Canada’s Globe and Mail: A Case Study of the Construction of Ignorance Eda Kranakis Énergie et société au Canada Article abstract Volume 37, Number 1-2, 2014 Scientific knowledge is essential to understand problems confronting society, and the mass media have become the main source of this knowledge for most URI: https://id.erudit.org/iderudit/1030643ar people. However, the mass media filter scientific information, leading DOI: https://doi.org/10.7202/1030643ar sometimes to what has been termed “the construction of ignorance.” This article offers a case study of this process. It explains how Canada’s leading See table of contents newspaper, the Globe and Mail, has depicted oil depletion theory (or “peak oil” theory). By contrasting the history of oil depletion theory with its representation in the Globe and Mail since the turn of the millennium, the article reveals the contours of this constructed ignorance. Comparison with Publisher(s) coverage of meteorological and climate change science further refines the CSTHA/AHSTC analysis. Finally, the article investigates the underlying causes for the Globe and Mail’s treatment of peak oil theory and how it relates to the Canadian context. ISSN 1918-7750 (digital) Explore this journal Cite this article Kranakis, E. (2014). Peak Oil Theory in Canada’s Globe and Mail: A Case Study of the Construction of Ignorance. Scientia Canadensis, 37(1-2), 133–189.
    [Show full text]
  • Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy and Economic Growth We Present A
    Fossil fuels, alternative energy and economic growth We present a theoretical framework that incorporates energy within an endogenous growth model. The model explicitly allows for the interaction and substitution between fossil fuels, defined as a non-renewable resource derived from some fixed initial stock, and alternative energy, defined as renewable resource whose production requires capital input. The dynamics of the model depict a unique balance growth to a saddle point. The consumption path temporarily peaks, when fossil fuels are plentiful and cheap, followed by a fall, as fossil fuel become more scarce and alternative energy production has yet to take over, until finally the steady state is reached where alternative energy production fuels the entire economy. The model depicts a sort of energy rich heyday when fossil fuels are plentiful and cheap. As oil stocks fall, alternative energy sources become increasingly more viable until a time when alternative energy has almost completed replaced oil. Graphically, the model generates a hump in the growth path of consumption such that a short run “peak oil” heyday may be compared to the long run renewable energy dependent steady state. October 2014 (Work in progress!!!) Keywords: Endogenous growth, non-renewable resources, renewable resources, energy, oil, fossil fuels, alternative energy, peak oil JEL Classifications: O41, Q21, Q31 Raul A. Barreto University of Adelaide Adelaide, Australia A. Introduction The modern economy requires energy to produce its goods. Although alternatives exist, fossil fuels are still its cheapest source. Unfortunately, fossil fuels are non- renewable and can therefore run out. More colourful extensions of this line of thought gave birth to “peak oil” within popular vernacular.
    [Show full text]
  • The Oil Crisis and Its Impact on the Air Cargo Industry
    The Oil Crisis and its Impact on the Air Cargo Industry Gal Luft, PhD Executive director, Institute for the Analysis of Global security April 2006 The Institute for the Analysis of Global Security is a Washington based non-profit public educational organization dedicated to research and public debate on issues related to energy security. IAGS seeks to promote public awareness to the strong impact energy has on the world economy and security and to the myriad of technological and policy solutions that could help nations strengthen their energy security. WWW.IAGS.ORG 2 Introduction The first five years of the 21st century have brought a great deal of turmoil and instability to the global oil market. In November 2001, oil prices stood at under $20 a barrel. By April 2006, they crossed the $75 mark. Many reasons brought to the steep rise in oil prices among them growing demand in developing Asia, the collapse of major Russian oil company Yukos, lack of sufficient investment, terrorism and political instability in several oil producing countries, fear of military confrontation with Iran and increased hurricane activity in the U.S. This sudden rise in oil prices has already taken a toll on the global economy. The International Monetary Fund suggests that the recent oil price increases were the primary factor behind the decline of global GDP growth by 0.7–0.8 percentage points in 2005–06 relative to 2004. While oil prices impact global economy at large they impose a particular burden on energy intensive industries like the transportation and petrochemical industries.
    [Show full text]
  • Peak Oil Strategic Management Dissertation
    STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND JUNE 2006 ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS AND CHARTS v LIST OF TABLES vii PREFACE viii INTRODUCTION ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM 1 PART I THE BIG ROLLOVER: ONSET OF A PETROLEUM DEMAND GAP AND SWITCH TO A SELLERS’ MARKET CHAPTER 1 WHAT”S OIL EVER DONE FOR YOU? (AND WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT STOPPED DOING IT?) 5 Oil: Cheap Energy on Demand - Oil is Not Just a Commodity - Heavy Users - Projected Demand Growth for Liquid Petroleum - Price Elasticity of Oil Demand - Energy and Economic Growth - The Dependence of Productivity Growth on Expanding Energy Supplies - Economic Implications of a Reduced Oil Supply Rate CHAPTER 2 REALITY CHECK: TAKING INVENTORY OF PETROLEUM SUPPLY 17 The Geologic Production of Petroleum - Where the Oil Is and Where It Goes - Diminishing Marginal Returns of Production - Hubbert’s Peak: World Oil Production Peaking and Decline - Counting Oil Inventory: What’s in the World Warehouse? - Oil Resources versus Accessible Reserves - Three Camps: The Peak Oilers, Official Agencies, Technology Optimists - Liars’ Poker: Got Oil? - Geopolitical Realities of the Distribution of Remaining World
    [Show full text]
  • Global Oil Depletion
    Cover:Example_Design 23/09/2009 10:38 Page 1 An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production global oil in peak near-term for a evidence the assessment of An Global Oil Depletion An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production UK Energy Research Centre September 2009 UK ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE 58 Prince’s Gate Exhibition Road London SW7 2PG tel: +44 (0)20 7594 1574 email: [email protected] www.ukerc.ac.uk UK ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE Cover:Example_Design 23/09/2009 10:38 Page 2 An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production A report produced by the Technology and Policy Assessment function of the UK Energy Research Centre Steve Sorrell Jamie Speirs Roger Bentley Adam Brandt Richard Miller August 2009 ISBN number 1-903144-0-35 Prelims_Intro:UKERC 23/09/2009 10:31 Page i Preface This report has been produced by the UK Energy Research Centre’s Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) function. The TPA was set up to address key controversies in the energy field through comprehensive assessments of the current state of knowledge. It aims to provide authoritative reports that set high standards for rigour and transparency, while explaining results in a way that is useful to policymakers. This report summarises the main conclusions from the TPA’s assessment of evidence for global oil depletion. The subject of this assessment was chosen after consultation with energy sector stakeholders and upon the recommendation of the TPA Advisory Group, which is comprised of independent experts from government, academia and the private sector.
    [Show full text]
  • Ngo Documents 2011-05-30 00:00:00 Marginal Oil : What Is Driving Oil Companies Dirtier
    Marginal Oil What is driving oil companies dirtier and deeper? Aerial view of the oil on the sea surface, originating from the leaking of the Deepwater Horizon wellhead disaster, slowly approaching the coast of Louisiana East of the mouth of the Mississippi river. The BP leased oil platform exploded April 20, 2010 and sank after burning, leaking an estimate of more than 200,000 gallons of crude oil per day from the broken pipeline into the sea. © Daniel Beltrá / Greenpeace Front cover: Left: Fen and the Boreal Forest near McClelland Lake , north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. This area has been leased for future oil sands development. Right: Syncrude Aurora Oil Sands Mine, north of Fort McMurray, Canada. © Peter Essick 2009. All rights reserved Preface Boreal forest of spruce, poplar and aspen, east of Peace River in northern Alberta, Canada. © Jiri Rezac / Greenpeace With conventional oil production in decline, the global oil In November 2010 we therefore jointly organised a industry is investing heavily in dirtier and riskier forms of networking and strategy meeting for civil society activists from unconventional oil such as heavy crude, tar sands, and oil North America, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. The aim shale. These investments pose a challenge to the climate, the was to share information and experiences and better coordinate environment, and local communities. One new frontier for tar global efforts to fight marginal oil investments and promote a sands development is sub-Sahara Africa, a region that is highly clean and sustainable energy future globally. dependent on the export of raw materials, but at the same time is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and the To this end we will also work with decision makers both in the subsequent suffering due to the effects of extractive industries’ European Union and globally to ensure that the right policies are projects.
    [Show full text]
  • EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions
    Long-term estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas global productions Article (Accepted Version) Court, Victor and Fizaine, Florian (2017) Long-term estimates of the Energy-Return-on- Investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas global productions. Ecological Economics, 138. pp. 145- 159. ISSN 0921-8009 This version is available from Sussex Research Online: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/78686/ This document is made available in accordance with publisher policies and may differ from the published version or from the version of record. If you wish to cite this item you are advised to consult the publisher’s version. Please see the URL above for details on accessing the published version. Copyright and reuse: Sussex Research Online is a digital repository of the research output of the University. Copyright and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and practicable, the material made available in SRO has been checked for eligibility before being made available. Copies of full text items generally can be reproduced, displayed or performed and given to third parties in any format or medium for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge, provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk Long-term estimates of the energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas global productions Victor COURTa,b,c and Florian FIZAINEd a EconomiX, UMR 7235, UPL, Univ.
    [Show full text]
  • CCUS2018 Book of Abstracts 1 Whole Gamut of Options, and Make Them More Benign, More Effective
    Book of Abstracts Applied Energy Symposium and Forum Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage, CCUS 2018 applied-energy.org/ccus2018 First Authors Al-Khdheeaw, Hoffman, Nick Ma, Jinfeng Tenthorey, Eric Emad A. Honari, Vahab Ma, Xin Tomashpolskyy, Baek, Johyun Kostya Hu, Deng Malss, Stephen Cao, Qi Van Gent, Huang, Dong Michael, Karsten Dominique Cook, Peter Jin, Hongchun Myers, Matthew Wang, Liuqi Czernichowski- Nookuea, Lauriol, Isabelle Kim, Chan Yeong Wang, Yongsheng Worrada Koh, Moonhyun Denney, Bruce Xing, Yao Oh, Yun-Yeong Li, Pengchun Diao, Yujie Xu, Ruina Peng, Bo Fan, Jingli Li, Qi Yang, Lin Peng, Bo Li, Yannan Fan, Jing-Li Yang, Sen Peng, Bo Liu, Danqing Feitz, Andrew Yang, Xiaoliang Raab, Matthias Feitz, Andrew Liu, Lianbo Yu, Hongyan Ricard, Ludovic Lu, Shijian Feron, Paul Zapantis, Alex Rørvik, Kari-Lise Lu, Shijian He, Di Zhang, Yihuai Sawada, He, Wenmei Lu, Taojie Yoshihiro Symposium overview Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is vital for reducing emissions across the energy system in both the Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2°C Scenario (2DS) and the Beyond 2°C Scenario (B2DS). With the theme “Advancing CCUS through global cooperation”, the Applied Energy Symposium and Forum, CCUS2018: Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage, to which the present issue of Energy Procedia is dedicated, was held in Perth, on June 27–29, 2018 (http://applied- energy.org/ccus2018). More than 80 participants from 7 countries attended this conference with oral presentations of 56 papers. A selection of CCUS2018 symposium papers have be published in the journal Energy Procedia. A diverse range of topics were covered including progress updates from operating and planned international and Australian CCS/CCUS projects, economics and legal frameworks, CO2 enhanced shale gas recovery/enhanced oil recovery/enhanced water recovery projects, storage assessments, pipeline leakage and novel utilisation technologies, capture technologies, monitoring and sensor technologies, geochemistry, and leakage risks and faults.
    [Show full text]
  • Peak Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries Facing the Hard Truth About an Import Decline for the OECD Countries
    JOINT TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE Discussion Paper No. 2007-17 December 2007 Peak Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries Facing the hard truth about an import decline for the OECD countries Kjell ALEKLETT Uppsala University Uppsala, Sweden SUMMARY ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 4 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Mission ............................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Major articles by Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Groupe. .................. 6 1.3 Peak oil and today’s society ............................................................................. 8 1.4 References 1. ................................................................................................. 11 2. FUTURE DEMAND FOR OIL ............................................................................... 13 2.1 Future oil demand forecasts by IEA and EIA ................................................. 13 2.2 Oil intensity driven demand ............................................................................ 13 2.4 References 2 .................................................................................................. 17 3. HOW MUCH OIL HAVE WE FOUND AND WHEN DID WE FIND IT? ................ 18 3.1 Resources and reserves ...............................................................................
    [Show full text]