The Next 10 Years
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PRINT MAGAZINE TO BE SONALI DE RYCKER SHAKIL KHAN PHIL LIBIN FABRICE GRINDA DISTRIBUTED AT LEWEB 2013 ON THE FUTURE ON THE FUTURE ON THE 100-YEAR- ON REASONS OF FINTECH, OF MONEY OLD START-UP FOR OPTIMISM DECEMBER 10-12, 2013 E-COMMERCE AND DIGITAL MEDIA WWW.INFORMILO.COM THE NEXT 10 YEARS be made on demand at the local level, why do we need retail stores or ware- houses? asks Jeremiah Owyang, Chief Catalyst at Crowd Companies. Some stores will mainly be used as a source of building block materials by consumers who make their own products in ad- joining labs. Others will become a kind of 21st-century version of photocopy shops, pumping out a specified number of widgets on demand instead of bound reports or marketing literature. • The lines between offline and online shopping will blur even further, pre- dicts Sonali de Rycker, a general part- ner at Accel Partners in London. Mer- chandise and promotions will not only be consistent across all retail channels, adapting to consumers who want to use different channels simultaneously, the offers will be personalized according to a specific consumer’s purchase pat- terns, social network affinities, website visits, loyalty programs, and other data- mining techniques. • Affordable humanoid robots that can do useful things will start appearing in homes as early as 2014, promises Bruno Maisonnier, CEO and founder of France’s Aldebaran Robotics. • Every company in the future will be a software company because software will be the biggest asset needed to at- tract and retain customers, says For- rester Research CEO George Colony. • As a result all companies — whether they sell toothbrushes or insurance — will be competing with the Googles and Salesforces of the world to hire the best developers. • As market behaviors shift, every cor- NET 2023: PEERING INTO THE FUTURE poration will have to consider intro- ducing products as a service, tapping Here are a few of the speakers’ predictions: in life to take classes. the maker movement and crowd col- BY JENNIFER L. SCHENKER • In less than five years we will be able to • Virtual money will become more main- laboration to stay relevant, says Crowd buy a functioning Star Trek-like medical stream, promises speaker Shakil Khan, Companies’ Owyang. Unmanned drones delivering Amazon tricorder: a cellphone-sized device that an active angel investor and bitcoin parcels. 3D printing machines that can can diagnose most illness better than believer. All of these expected changes will bring produce a tiny heart valve to save a baby’s most doctors, predicts serial entrepre- • Driverless cars will become the norm; about radical disruptions, says Naam. life or a working gun. That future is al- neur and active investor Fabrice Grinda. with automakers from Tesla to Mer- Highly-paid and highly-educated pro- ready here. So what do the next 10 years • Grinda also predicts 3D-printed organs cedes offering such models, says Ramez on the Net have in store? based on your personal genetic make-up Naam, a computer scientist and author To find out, Informilo interviewed over will eliminate the organ shortage and of the science fiction novel Nexus. Raam CONTINUED ON PAGE 22 & 23 a dozen scheduled speakers at LeWeb, an rejection issues in the next 10 years. also lectures on energy, environment, annual Internet conference organized by • Education will continue to be democra- and innovation at Singularity Univer- Loic and Geraldine Le Meur. To mark tized, he says, with the best professors sity, where he serves as Adjunct Faculty. SEE INSIDE the conference’s 10-year anniversary the reaching hundreds of thousands of stu- • 3D printing and the maker movement THE TOP 25 HOTTEST focus this year is on what the Internet will dents, allowing people from everywhere will impact manufacturing and pur- START-UP COMPANIES look like in 2023. in the world, of every age, at every stage chasing. In a world where things can TO MEET AT LEWEB WHERE BUSINESS MEETS INNOVATION THE NEXT 10 YEARS THIS MAGAZINE WAS PRODUCED BY INFORMILO, A MEDIA COMPANY THAT SPECIALIZES IN CONNECTING BUSINESS WITH INNOVATION. INFORMILO RUNS A NEWS SITE, WWW.INFORMILO.COM, AND PUBLISHES INDEPENDENT MAGAZINES CONNECTED TO MAJOR GUEST ESSAY Healthcare is becoming computerized; Star Trek-like he received the King of Siam in the late INDUSTRY CONFERENCES. medical tricorders should enter the market within 1850s, distributed silver utensils to his five years. Scanadu’s Scout vital-sign monitor is just guests, gold for himself and aluminum JENNIFER L. SCHENKER: EDITOR-IN-CHIEF what they will find most remarkable is not the start. for the king. Aluminum is very abundant. AUDREY MANDELA: CONTRIBUTING EDITOR D’ARCY DORAN AND ERIC SYLVERS: the euro crisis or the Iran and Afghani- It’s seven percent of the earth’s core, the CONTRIBUTING WRITERS stan wars, but the remarkable growth of third most abundant element in the Earth’s DESIGN: THEDESIGNSURGERY.CO.UK Africa. Over the past 10 years six of the self-driving vehicles. They currently are crust. The issue is that it does not occur The Case top 10 fastest-growing economies have cost-prohibitive but the technology that in natural form, which made it incredibly been African. Africa is rapidly becoming they use is already being deployed in the rare. Prices dropped dramatically in a few CONTENTS integrated in the global economy. mass market with self-parking systems years after 1886 when chemists discovered and automatic braking when traffic slows. electrolysis, which allowed them to sepa- 01 23 24 THE NEXT 10 YEARS for Optimism TRANSFORMING PUBLIC SERVICES In fact Tesla expects to have a car that can rate pure aluminum from its ore. THROUGH TECH drive itself in 90% of situations in the next A similar process is under way with so- 02 03 THE CASE FOR OPTIMISM three years! lar energy. It’s following a slow Moore’s Internet entrepreneur and investor Fabrice Grinda, Before I talk about the changes that up- Communications are also rapidly law curve with solar power improving 04 START-UP INVESTING REACHES NEW HIGH a scheduled speaker at LeWeb. Grinda, a native of coming technologies are going to bring evolving. It makes perfect sense for 14% per year in terms of energy produc- France, has successfully launched and invested in to this world and why they make me ex- Google to be working on glasses given that tion per dollar invested. In 1977, solar cells 05 SONALI DE RYCKER businesses in the U.S., Europe, Asia and Latin America. traordinarily optimistic, I want to point cell phones seem bound to disappear. We cost upwards of $70 per Watt. In 2013, that ON THE FUTURE OF Most recently, he co-founded and helped run OLX, out existing low-hanging fruits in terms of but with Moore’s law today’s expensive few schools have tried this with extremely are making great progress in brain read- cost dropped to $0.74 per Watt, a 100:1 im- FINTECH, E-COMMERCE which claims to be the largest free local classified productivity improvements by simply ap- supercomputer is tomorrow’s $100 cell promising early results. Education is also ing. We now have low-resolution scan- provement. In fact, the costs dropped 50% AND DIGITAL MEDIA site in the world, with a presence in over 90 countries plying existing technologies and processes phone. We are less than five years away in the process of becoming scalable, with ners than can scan images from people’s in one year in 2011 driven by competition and 50 languages, and more than 150 million unique to areas of the economy that have yet to from having a functioning Star Trek-like the best professors reaching hundreds of brains. We can project our thoughts and between Chinese manufacturers. Solar 06 FUTURE OF RETAIL visitors per month. He is also a prolific angel investor be touched by them, especially in public medical tricorder: a cellphone-sized device thousands of students as many classes on make them appear on screen. This cur- is already at grid parity in remote places. with over 100 active investments. Prior to OLX, Grinda 07 18 RUSSIAN E-COMMERCE services, health care and education, which that can diagnose most illness better than the top MOOCs (Massive Open Online rently requires expensive and unwieldy Based on current trends it will be at grid was the founder and CEO of Zingy Inc., a wireless media combined account for over 50% of GDP in most doctors. Courses), Udacity and Coursera, have hardware but that is also set to shrink parity in sunny places in the U.S. by 2025 08 09 BRANDS AND SOCIAL MEDIA company focused on the Americas which was sold all Western countries. Education is also on the cusp of a revo- shown. Education is being democratized and become cheaper because of Moore’s and most of the world by 2035. When that in 2004 for $80 million. In 1998, he co-founded and The current environment of austerity lution. If we transported Socrates forward and is transforming itself in a lifelong law. Google Glass will probably evolve to happens investments in its deployment 10 FOCUS ON FINTECH was CEO of Aucland S.A., a top auction site in Europe. has been leading states to want to do less in time 2,500 years the way we teach our endeavor as people from everywhere in use lasers to print on our retina, taking will reach tens of billions of dollars. In Before that Grinda worked as a business consultant with less. However, we have an extraor- kids is one of the few things he would rec- the world, of every age, at every stage in orders from our mind control rather than other words, even excluding disruptive 11 FUTURE OF MONEY for McKinsey & Company.