Russia: the Navalny Poisoning, Chemical Weapons Use, and U.S. Sanctions
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The Media As a Mirror of Putin's Evolving Strategy in Ukraine
Tomila Lankina and Kohei Watanabe ‘Russian Spring’ or ‘Spring betrayal’? The media as a mirror of Putin’s evolving strategy in Ukraine Article (Accepted version) (Refereed) Original citation: Lankina, Tomila V. and Watanabe, Kohei (2017) ‘Russian Spring’ or ‘Spring betrayal’? The media as a mirror of Putin’s evolving strategy in Ukraine. Europe-Asia Studies. pp. 1526- 1556. ISSN 0966-8136 DOI: 10.1080/09668136.2017.1397603 © 2017 University of Glasgow This version available at: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/68226/ Available in LSE Research Online: January 2018 LSE has developed LSE Research Online so that users may access research output of the School. Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Users may download and/or print one copy of any article(s) in LSE Research Online to facilitate their private study or for non-commercial research. You may not engage in further distribution of the material or use it for any profit-making activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute the URL (http://eprints.lse.ac.uk) of the LSE Research Online website. This document is the author’s final accepted version of the journal article. There may be differences between this version and the published version. You are advised to consult the publisher’s version if you wish to cite from it. 1 Tomila Lankina* and Kohei Watanabe** ‘Russian Spring’ or ‘Spring Betrayal’? The Media as a Mirror of Putin’s Evolving Strategy in Ukraine Abstract We develop a novel Russian-language electronic content analysis dictionary and method to analyse Russian state media’s framing of the Euromaidan protests. -
Nord Stream 2
Updated August 24, 2021 Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline to Germany Nord Stream 2, a natural gas pipeline nearing completion, is which accounted for about 48% of EU natural gas imports expected to increase the volume of Russia’s natural gas in 2020. Russian gas exports to the EU were up 18% year- export capacity directly to Germany, bypassing Ukraine, on-year in the first quarter of 2021. Factors behind reliance Poland, and other transit states (Figure 1). Successive U.S. on Russian supply include diminishing European gas Administrations and Congresses have opposed Nord Stream supplies, commitments to reduce coal use, Russian 2, reflecting concerns about European dependence on investments in European infrastructure, Russian export Russian energy and the threat of increased Russian prices, and the perception of many Europeans that Russia aggression in Ukraine. The German government is a key remains a reliable supplier. proponent of the pipeline, which it says will be a reliable Figure 1. Nord Stream Gas Pipeline System source of natural gas as Germany is ending nuclear energy production and reducing coal use. Despite the Biden Administration’s stated opposition to Nord Stream 2, the Administration appears to have shifted its focus away from working to prevent the pipeline’s completion to mitigating the potential negative impacts of an operational pipeline. Some critics of this approach, including some Members of Congress and the Ukrainian and Polish governments, sharply criticized a U.S.-German joint statement on energy security, issued on July 21, 2021, which they perceived as indirectly affirming the pipeline’s completion. -
A Retrospective on the So-Called Revolution in Military Affairs, 2000-2020
SECURITY, STRATEGY, AND ORDER A RETROSPECTIVE ON THE SO-CALLED REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS, 2000-2020 MICHAEL O’HANLON A RESTROSPECTIVE ON THE SO-CALLED REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS, 2000-2020 MICHAEL O’HANLON EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1 This paper revisits the debate that raged in American defense circles in the 1990s over whether a revolution in military affairs was imminent in the early parts of the 21st century. It also seeks to establish a benchmark, and reaffirm as well as refine a methodology, for forecasting future changes in military-related technologies by examining what has transpired in the first two decades of the 21st century. Taking this approach helps improve and validate the methodology that is employed in my forthcoming book, The Senkaku Paradox: Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes (2019). A subsequent paper seeks to extrapolate a similar analysis out to 2040, gauging the potential for major breakthroughs in military technology and associated operational concepts over the next two decades. Such analysis is of critical importance for evaluating American and allied military and strategic options relevant to great-power war and deterrence in the years ahead. The paper’s category-by-category examination of military technology mirrors the approach that I employed in a book published in 2000, Technological Change and the Future of Warfare (though it really should have been entitled, The So-Called Revolution in Military Affairs, because I was largely challenging the then-popular notion that a military revolution of historic importance was afoot). Much of the research foundation of that book was the study of a list of 29 different types of technologies in an attempt to gauge which might undergo revolutionary change by 2020. -
Nord Stream 2: Background, Objections, and Possible Outcomes Steven Pifer
NORD STREAM 2: BACKGROUND, OBJECTIONS, AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES STEVEN PIFER APRIL 2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nord Stream 2 is an almost-finished natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. The Biden administration opposes it and has come under congressional pressure to invoke sanctions to prevent its completion, in large part because the pipeline seems a geopolitical project targeted at Ukraine. The German government, however, regards the pipeline as a “commercial project” and appears committed to its completion, perhaps in the next few months. U.S. sanctions applied on Russian entities to date have failed to stop Nord Stream 2, raising the question of whether the U.S. government would sanction German and other European companies for servicing or certifying the pipeline. Such sanctions would provoke controversy with Germany at a time when both Berlin and the Biden administration seek to rebuild good relations. The two sides have work to do if they wish to avoid Nord Stream 2 becoming a major point of U.S.-German contention. THE PIPELINE The European Union currently imports about 40% of its natural gas from Russia, or about one-third Nord Stream 2 is actually a pair of natural gas of its total gas consumption.4 Gazprom began pipelines that, if/when completed, will run some discussions with European companies on a direct 1,200 kilometers along the bottom of the Baltic Russia-Germany gas pipeline in 2001. At that time, 1 Sea from Ust-Luga, Russia to Greifswald, Germany. it shipped gas to western Europe via pipelines that The two pipelines, collectively referred to as Nord mainly transited Ukraine, and also Belarus and Stream 2, are projected to have the capacity to Poland (the Yamal system). -
From the Ukraine–Russia War to the Navalny Case: How to Deal with the Kremlin?
From the Ukraine–Russia War to the Navalny Case: How to Deal with the Kremlin? Nona Mikhelidze No. 12. April 2021 This publication has been funded by the European Union under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 769886. ABSTRACT April 2021 . 12 Seven years after the annexation of Crimea and amid an ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia has tried to move towards military escalation in the Donbass region making clear that the status quo emerged in 2014 as a “new normal” cannot last. The Minsk II Agreement negotiated between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany in the framework of the Normandy Format in February 2015 remains unimplemented despite numerous rounds of mediation. Western economic sanctions against Moscow succeeded in limiting the Kremlin’s military EU-LISTCO Policy Paper Series. Paper EU-LISTCO Policy advance beyond Donbass and deterred it from making further territorial gains. However, these measures failed to impact on Russian decision-making regarding resolution of the conflict. Influencing Russia’s foreign policy is not an easy task, as the country’s conduct of international relations is shaped by domestic factors and the authoritarian nature of its governance. Still, the West needs a strategy in response to the international and domestic wrongdoings already committed by the Kremlin and as a preventative measure to deter Moscow’s future aggression. In order to face the Russian challenge, the West should first design clear rules for its own foreign-policy behaviour based on the primacy of human rights and democracy and then define how to defend universal values abroad, including in Russia. -
Russian Intelligence Services and Special Forces
BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 8430, 30 October 2018 Russian intelligence By Ben Smith services and special forces Contents: 1. KGB reborn? 2. GRU 3. Spetsnaz 4. What’s new? www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Russian intelligence services and special forces Contents Summary 3 1. KGB reborn? 4 1.1 FSB 4 1.2 SVR 5 1.3 FSO and GUSP 5 2. GRU 7 Cyber warfare 7 NCSC Review 8 3. Spetsnaz 9 4. What’s new? 12 Cover page image copyright: Special operations forces of the Russian Federation by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation (Mil.ru). Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license / image cropped. 3 Commons Library Briefing, 30 October 2018 Summary The Salisbury incident and its aftermath brought the Russian secret services into the spotlight. Malcolm Chalmers of Royal United Services Institute said Russian security services were going well beyond normal spying practice: “By launching disruptive operations that threaten life in target societies, they blur the line between war and peace”. The main domestic service, the FSB, is a successor to the Communist-era KGB. It is responsible for counter-terrorism and counter espionage and Russian information security. Critics say that it continues the KGB’s work of persecution of ‘dissidents’ and is guilty of torture and other human rights violations, and of extortion and corruption. One estimate put its staff complement at 200,000, and it has grown in power, particularly since the election of Vladimir Putin as President of Russia. -
HJS 'Putin Sees and Hears It All' Report.Qxd
Putin SeeS and HearS it all: How ruSSia’S intelligence agencieS Menace tHe uK BY DR ANDREW FOXALL DEMOCRACY | FREEDOM | HUMAN RIGHTS November 2018 First published in 2018 by The Henry Jackson Society. The Henry Jackson Society Millbank Tower 21-24 Millbank London SW1P 4QP Registered charity no. 1140489 Tel: +44 (0)20 7340 4520 www.henryjacksonsociety.org © The Henry Jackson Society, 2018. All rights reserved. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and are not necessarily indicative of those of The Henry Jackson Society or its Trustees. Title: “PuTiN SEES AND HEARS iT ALL: HOW RuSSiA’S iNTELLigENcE AgENciES MENAcE THE uK” By: Dr Andrew Foxall Putin SeeS and HearS it all: How ruSSia’S intelligence agencieS Menace tHe uK BY DR ANDREW FOXALL November 2018 PuTiN SEES AND HEARS iT ALL “Dr. Foxall’s report forcefully reminds us that Russian Intelligence activity in the West is still large scale and intrusive, and that we need to devote significant resources and expertise ourselves to monitoring and blunting this threat to our national security. As during the Cold War an effective counterintelligence capability remains an essential part of our own intelligence and security community.” Sir richard dearlove KcMg oBe chief of the Secret intelligence Service (Mi6) (1999-2004) “Anyone who is relaxed or complacent about Russian intelligence activity in the United Kingdom should read this Report. Not only have we experienced the murder of Litvinenko and the attempted murder of the Skripals on British soil, Britain and the West as a whole face an unrelenting assault from Putin’s bloated intelligence and security agencies. -
Chemical Weapons INDIVIDUALS
CONSOLIDATED LIST OF FINANCIAL SANCTIONS TARGETS IN THE UK Last Updated:20/08/2021 Status: Asset Freeze Targets REGIME: Chemical Weapons INDIVIDUALS 1. Name 6: AHMED 1: FIRAS 2: n/a 3: n/a 4: n/a 5: n/a. Title: Colonel DOB: 21/01/1967. a.k.a: (1) AHMAD (2) AHMAD, Firas Nationality: Syrian Position: Head of Security Office at Institute 1000 of the SSRC Other Information: (UK Sanctions List Ref):CHW0001 Date designated on UK Sanctions List: 31/12/2020 (Further Identifiying Information):Important employee at Scientific Studies and Research Centre (listed under the EU's Chemical Weapons and Syria sanctions regime). (UK Statement of Reasons):Colonel Firas Ahmed is the Director of the Security Office of Institute 1000, the division of the Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC) responsible for developing and producing computer and electronic systems for Syria’s chemical weapons programme.He was involved in transferring and concealing chemical weapons related materials following Syria’s accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention.Due to his senior position within Institute 1000 of the SSRC, he is associated with the SSRC. (Gender):Male Listed on: 21/01/2019 Last Updated: 31/12/2020 Group ID: 13749. 2. Name 6: ALEXANDROV 1: ALEXEY 2: n/a 3: n/a 4: n/a 5: n/a. DOB: 16/06/1981. a.k.a: FROLOV, Alexey Position: FSB Operative attached to Criminalistics Institute Other Information: (UK Sanctions List Ref):CHW0018 (UK Statement of Reasons):Alexey Alexandrov is an FSB operative in the Criminalistics Institute - Military Unit 34435. Evidence including phone and travel records suggest that Alexey Alexandrov was one of the operatives involved in the use of a chemical weapon in the attempted assassination of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny during his August 2020 visit to Siberia. -
Joint Statement by Albania, Andorra, Australia, Austria
JOINT STATEMENT BY ALBANIA, ANDORRA, AUSTRALIA, AUSTRIA, BELGIUM, BULGARIA, CANADA, COLOMBIA, COOK ISLANDS, CROATIA, CYPRUS, CZECH REPUBLIC, DENMARK, ECUADOR, ESTONIA, FIJI, FINLAND, FRANCE, GEORGIA, GERMANY, GREECE, HONDURAS, HUNGARY, ICELAND, IRELAND, ITALY, JAPAN, LATVIA, LIBERIA, LIECHTENSTEIN, LITHUANIA, LUXEMBOURG, MALTA, MARSHALL ISLANDS, MONTENEGRO, NAURU, NETHERLANDS, NEW ZEALAND, NORWAY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, PALAU, PERU, POLAND, PORTUGAL, PRINCIPALITY OF MONACO, REPUBLIC OF KOREA, REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA, ROMANIA, SAN MARINO, SLOVAKIA, SLOVENIA, SPAIN, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, TURKEY, UKRAINE, UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND VANUATU AT THE TWENTY-FIFTH SESSION OF THE CONFERENCE OF THE STATES PARTIES 1. We, as States Parties of the Chemical Weapons Convention, condemn in the strongest possible terms the use of a toxic chemical as a weapon in the Russian Federation against Alexei Navalny on 20 August 2020. 2. We welcome the assistance provided by the OPCW Technical Secretariat in the aftermath of Mr. Navalny’s poisoning. OPCW analysis of biomedical samples confirmed the presence of a cholinesterase inhibitor. We note that the cholinesterase inhibitor has been further identified as a nerve agent from a group of chemicals known as “Novichoks”. We have full confidence in the OPCW’s independent expert finding that Mr. Navalny was exposed to a Novichok nerve agent. We note with concern that a Novichok nerve agent was also used in an attack in the United Kingdom in 2018. These agents serve no other purpose than to be used as a chemical weapon. 3. Any poisoning of an individual with a nerve agent is considered a use of a chemical weapon. -
The Imprisonment of Alexei Navalny
BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 9137, 16 March 2021 The imprisonment of By Ben Smith Alexei Navalny Contents: 1. Alexei Navalny 2. Background of discontent 3. Reaction 4. Sanctions 5. The “Magnitsky” legal frameworks 6. Further reading www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 The imprisonment of Alexei Navalny Contents Summary 3 1. Alexei Navalny 4 Crackdown halts protests 4 2. Background of discontent 5 Dangerous moment 5 3. Reaction 6 UK 6 EU 6 Council of Europe 7 G7 7 4. Sanctions 8 Sanctions 15 October 8 US and EU co-ordinated announcement, 2 March 8 4.1 Co-ordination? 9 5. The “Magnitsky” legal frameworks 10 6. Further reading 11 Cover page image copyright Click & browse to copyright info for stock image 3 Commons Library Briefing, 16 March 2021 Summary Russian Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny returned to Russia in January 2021, after recovering in Germany from Novichok poisoning. He was immediately arrested and imprisoned over a conviction that the European Court of Human Rights had previously declared violated his human rights. That brought thousands of Russians onto the streets, in some of the biggest demonstrations against the Government. At least a thousand were arrested. The demonstrations were widely ascribed to growing discontent with the Government over corruption and declining living standards,. The events have propelled Navalny to a new level of prominence and shown the Government increasingly resorting to repression. EU criticisms of Navalny’s treatment caused relations between the EU and Russia to nosedive, with the Kremlin announcing the expulsion of European diplomats, a move seen as a calculated humiliation. -
Bridge of Spies: Soft Power & Espionage in Eastern Europe – The
Bridge of Spies: Soft Power & Espionage in Eastern Europe – The Texas Orator ABOUT ARCHIVE ARTS IDEAS PODCAST MERCH CONTACT JOIN BOOK SUBMISSIONS Campus Culture Domestic Affairs Economy Education Environment Foreign Affairs Health Law Philosophy Satire Tech HOME › FOREIGN AFFAIRS › BRIDGE OF SPIES: SOFT POWER & ESPIONAGE IN EASTERN EUROPE Bridge of Spies: Soft Power & Espionage in Eastern Europe BY ARCHIT OSWAL on NOVEMBER 15, 2018 • ( 0 ) Academic – ish. After her brush with death in a Salisbury park earlier this year, twenty-four-year-old Yuliya Skripal released a statement through the BBC rejecting the Russian embassy’s offer of consular assistance. She and her father, Sergei Skripal, had been exposed to a powerful, military-grade nerve agent and spent several weeks Who We Are in comas. After immigrating to the United Kingdom, her father, a retired Russian military intelligence officer recruited by MI6 who spent 13 years in a Russian prison for espionage, had kept a low profile in the The Texas Orator is a multi-partisan, medieval English town of Salisbury. peer-reviewed political publication that is part of the Associated Soon after the poisoning, British authorities began building a case to formally implicate Russia in the Collegiate Press. We value thorough incident. During her address to the House of Commons, British Prime Minister Theresa May accused the analysis in our articles and strive to Russian government of directing the attack and promised an appropriate response. Within days of the protect the ideals of free speech and attempted assassination, the UK had expelled 23 Russian diplomats. In a show of solidarity, several British unhindered access to information on allies including the United States followed suit. -
02 Post-Putin Russia.1
On the Possible Foreign Policy of the Post-Putin Russia The Case of Alexei Navalny’s Viewpoints on Foreign Affairs Artem Patalakh The study delves into the foreign policy plans of Alexei Navalny, the Russian politician who is currently commonly regarded as the most prominent opposition leader and the sole plausible alternative to Vla- dimir Putin. Drawing on his interviews, public speeches, media publi- cations and electoral manifestos, the author analyses his foreign policy views alongside three topics, that is, Russia’s policies towards disput- ed lands and states in the post-Soviet area (Crimea, Donbas, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria), the country’s foreign policy orientation and priorities (especially regarding relations with the West) and assess- ment of the Putin regime’s foreign policy. Following this, the author speculates on the likely foundations of Russia’s foreign policy under Navalny’s possible presidency and their implications for the West. Keywords: Alexei Navalny, Crimea, Donbas war, Russian foreign policy, Russian opposition, Syrian civil war. In recent years, among all Russian opposition politicians, Alexei Na- valny, the leader of the Progress Party and the head of Anti-Corruption Foundation, has tended to be internationally considered as the most Artem Patalakh, On the Possible Foreign Policy of the Post-Soviet Russia: The Case of Alexei Navalny’s Viewpoints on Foreign Affairs, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 12, no. 1: 9-31. © 2018 CEJISS. Article is distributed under Open Access licence: Attribution - NonCommercial 3.0 Unported (cc by-nc 3.0). influential and the only one who is potentially capable of defeating Vladimir Putin.