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The Imprisonment of Alexei Navalny

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The Imprisonment of Alexei Navalny BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 9137, 16 March 2021 The imprisonment of By Ben Smith Alexei Navalny Contents: 1. Alexei Navalny 2. Background of discontent 3. Reaction 4. Sanctions 5. The “Magnitsky” legal frameworks 6. Further reading www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 The imprisonment of Alexei Navalny Contents Summary 3 1. Alexei Navalny 4 Crackdown halts protests 4 2. Background of discontent 5 Dangerous moment 5 3. Reaction 6 UK 6 EU 6 Council of Europe 7 G7 7 4. Sanctions 8 Sanctions 15 October 8 US and EU co-ordinated announcement, 2 March 8 4.1 Co-ordination? 9 5. The “Magnitsky” legal frameworks 10 6. Further reading 11 Cover page image copyright Click & browse to copyright info for stock image 3 Commons Library Briefing, 16 March 2021 Summary Russian Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny returned to Russia in January 2021, after recovering in Germany from Novichok poisoning. He was immediately arrested and imprisoned over a conviction that the European Court of Human Rights had previously declared violated his human rights. That brought thousands of Russians onto the streets, in some of the biggest demonstrations against the Government. At least a thousand were arrested. The demonstrations were widely ascribed to growing discontent with the Government over corruption and declining living standards,. The events have propelled Navalny to a new level of prominence and shown the Government increasingly resorting to repression. EU criticisms of Navalny’s treatment caused relations between the EU and Russia to nosedive, with the Kremlin announcing the expulsion of European diplomats, a move seen as a calculated humiliation. The EU remains divided, however, over how to respond. Some countries would like to see the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany cancelled, but Germany argues against mixing business and politics. The Council of Europe, the body that oversees human rights in Europe and of which Russia is a member, has also condemned Russia’s treatment of Navalny. The UK has used the fact that it is chairing the G7 and the UN Security Council to encourage a strong international response. Short of cancelling the Nord Stream 2 or imposing other large-scale economic sanctions, sanctions targeted against individuals for corruption and human rights abuses are the most likely international reaction. The US, the UK and the EU all have legal frameworks specially designed for this kind of sanction – often known as Magnitsky sanctions, after the Russian auditor who died in a Russian jail after uncovering massive fraud. Sanctions over Navalny will be an early test of transatlantic and cross-Channel collaboration after the US presidential transition and Brexit. 1. Alexei Navalny Anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny has long been a leading figure opposing the present Russian Government. In August 2020 he was poisoned with a nerve agent from the Novichok group and was urgently transferred to a hospital in Berlin, where he recovered. On 17 January 2021 he returned to Russia and was immediately arrested. A few days later he released a video describing what he said was President Putin’s “palace” on the Black Sea coast, and it soon clocked up 100 million views. President Putin denied that either he or his family owned any such property, while critics said that the residence had been built for Putin by billionaire businessmen who support him. More than a quarter of Russians watched the video. A Moscow court sentenced him on 2 February to two years and eight months’ imprisonment. That brought thousands onto the streets in more than 100 cities to call for his release. In Moscow some 40,000 came out. More than 2.500 people were arrested on the day of his sentencing. Crackdown halts protests An independent monitor estimated that some 10,000 people had been arrested over the two main weekends of protest in January, and more than 1,000 were sentenced to jail terms in Moscow and St Petersburg alone. The response from the security agencies seemed to be having the desired effect. On 14 February Navalny’s chief of staff called off the street protests, asking people to make light displays instead. www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 5 Commons Library Briefing, 16 March 2021 2. Background of discontent The Russian economy has managed only slow growth in the last few years, recovering slowly after shrinking in 2016. Forecasts suggest a contraction of 4 per cent in 2020, leaving average real incomes falling by 11 per cent since 2013; increasing numbers of Russians live in poverty. In spite of the economic damage inflicted by the Covid pandemic, the Government scrapped a big investment plan in 2020, in order to protect its national wealth fund. From being largely happy with the country’s direction in early 2018, Russians became far more dissatisfied following the announcement in June of that year of a sharp increase in the pension age. That did not stop about 78 per cent of the electorate voting Yes in the referendum held at the end of June 2020 on reforms allowing Vladimir Putin to serve another two terms as President after the 2024 election (if he stands). President Putin’s approval ratings fell to 60 per cent in summer 2020. That might seem like solid support, but it was the lowest approval since 2014, before the annexation of Crimea. Worse, his approval among voters aged 18-24 fell to 20 per cent; about 36 per cent of this age group had voted for Putin in 2019. Meanwhile, Alexei Navalny’s approval increased from 9 per cent to 20 per cent after he’d been poisoned. The poisoning, the daring return to Russia, the Putin’s palace video and the prison sentence have raised Navalny’s profile as leader of the Russian opposition. One observer put it like this: “Navalny is the most revolutionary figure Russia has seen since independence in 1991”. Dangerous moment The Russian Government’s policy towards Navalny used to be to ignore him. The assassination attempt having failed, his presence in a Moscow jail presents a risk to the Kremlin as he may be considered a martyr. The fall? in living standards is coming at a time when the popularity boost from foreign policy exploits like Crimea may be fading. A parliamentary election is due for September 2021. Analysts say Navalny may remain in prison until the next presidential election, scheduled for 2024, as there is another case against him pending. One Moscow-based observer argues that the present moment is a watershed for the Putin Kremlin, whose enforcers can keep on arresting protesters and imprisoning critics and no longer care about presenting a positive vision for the country. She goes on: “The drama surrounding Navalny’s poisoning was the fuse, but the fire it lit is being fed by the public’s fatigue and frustration with the Putin regime and its inability to change”.1 1 Tatiana Stanovaya, ‘Vladimir Putin’s Russia is destabilising itself from within’, Financial Times, 7 February 2020 6 The imprisonment of Alexei Navalny 3. Reaction UK On 27 January 2020 Foreign Office minister Wendy Morton called for Navalny’s immediate and unconditional release. Upon the news that Navalny had been sentenced, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said on 2 February: Today’s perverse ruling, targeting the victim of a poisoning rather than those responsible, shows Russia is failing to meet the most basic commitments expected of any responsible member of the international community. The UK is chairing the UN Security Council at present and on 2 February tried to call an informal meeting of the Security Council. It did not go ahead, reportedly over fears of “causing tension with Russia”. EU On 5 February, while the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell was meeting Kremlin representatives in Moscow, Russia expelled diplomats from Germany, Sweden and Poland for the alleged offence of attending anti-Putin demonstrations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: “The European Union is an unreliable partner. Further degradation of ties is fraught with negative and very, very unpredictable consequences.” There were calls for Borrell’s resignation over what some saw as an unwise trip leading to a “brutal, calculated public humiliation” on the part of the Kremlin. The Navalny row will “freeze already icy relations even harder” according to many observers. Germany, Poland and Sweden each expelled a Russian diplomat in retaliation. Baltic states, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland have called for Magnitsky- style sanctions against Russian officials involved in the imprisonment of Navalny. EU divisions But the EU is divided over Russia. In February Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Romania called for travel bans and asset freezes on more Russian individuals. Critics have also said that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is being built between Russia and Germany, should be halted over the Navalny case. The new US Administration may increasingly support a tougher line against the project. A bill passed during the Trump Administration had already imposed sanctions in connection with the pipeline and the Biden Administration has described the Nord Stream 2 as “a bad deal for Europe”. The German economy minister, however, said in February that Nord Stream 2 should be kept separate from politics, and joined France and Austria in defending doing business with Russia in spite of human rights violations. President Macron, particularly, has tried to engage the Russian leadership in dialogue, although the results have been “thin – non- existent really” according to a French Russia expert. A German commentator at the Brookings Institution argues that the EU should take a stronger line, including using the EU’s new Magnitsky sanctions legal framework: European governments should target the assets and estates that Putin’s henchmen and oligarch enablers have amassed in Europe.
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