DOCSLIB.ORG

U.S. Foreign and Security Policy in the Early 21St Century

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
U.S. Foreign and Security Policy in the Early 21St Century DOI azonosító: 10.17625/NKE.2014.025 National University of Public Service Doctoral School of Military Science Gustav C. Gressel U.S. Foreign and Security Policy in the Early 21st Century PhD Thesis Supervisor Prof. Tamás Magyarics Co-Supervisor Col. Dr. habil. Ferenc Molnár 2 0 1 4 DOI azonosító: 10.17625/NKE.2014.025 To Martyna, who had to sacrifice many possibly joyful evenings for this paper! 2 DOI azonosító: 10.17625/NKE.2014.025 Content Acknowledgements.......................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introductory remarks....................................................................................................................6 1.1. Research questions................................................................................................................7 1.2. Hypotheses.............................................................................................................................8 1.3. Methodology and research procedure ................................................................................. 9 1.3.1. Data elicitation.............................................................................................................11 1.3.2. Data categorisation...................................................................................................... 11 1.3.3. Analysis and evaluation.............................................................................................. 12 1.3.4. Scope of the thesis....................................................................................................... 12 1.4. Preliminary structure of the thesis.....................................................................................13 2. Theoretical framework...............................................................................................................15 2.1. Strategy, foreign policy choice or muddling through? The difficulty of reconstructing foreign policy decision-making.................................................................................................16 2.1.1. The Concept of Adaptation.........................................................................................16 2.1.2. The Grand Strategy Debate.........................................................................................19 2.1.3. Planning Theory...........................................................................................................21 2.1.4. Comparative Foreign Policy Analysis....................................................................... 21 2.1.5. Does “muddling through” render strategic analysis useless? .................................. 22 2.2. A Scheme for Strategy Analysis.........................................................................................24 2.2.1. The Scheme..................................................................................................................25 2.2.2. The Premises................................................................................................................27 2.2.2. Long-term or strategic level........................................................................................28 2.2.3. Mid-term Planning.......................................................................................................30 2.2.4. Short-term Planning.................................................................................................... 31 2.2.5. Timelines...................................................................................................................... 32 2.2.6. Applied and codification levels.................................................................................. 33 2.2.7. U.S. foreign policy documents in accordance with the scheme...............................34 2.3. Chapter Conclusions...........................................................................................................37 3. The Bush Administration’s Foreign Policy.............................................................................. 39 3.1. Premises...............................................................................................................................39 3.1.1. Specific demands among the ruling elites ................................................................. 39 3.1.2. Premises: Perception of the development of the international environment .......... 44 3.2. Strategic Goals and the Strategy of Primacy .................................................................... 48 3.2.1. The strategy of primacy - structural goals................................................................ 49 3.2.2. Goals and aims concerning the international order...................................................52 3.2.3. Strategy.........................................................................................................................56 3.3. Implementing Primacy: Allies, Alliances and Resistance to the War on Terror ............ 58 3.3.1. Interpreted objectives.................................................................................................. 58 3.3.2. Analysis of the potentials............................................................................................ 64 3.3.3. Calculation of options: dealing with contenders, Iraq and Afghanistan ................. 73 3.3.4. Domestic factors affecting foreign policy ................................................................. 87 3.3.5. Policies - object-bound and general policies............................................................ 92 3.3.5.1. The Global War on Terrorism..................................................................................92 3.3.5.2. The Middle East Policy and the Arab-Israeli Conflict .......................................... 98 3.3.5.3 The U.S. Policy towards Europe and the Russian Federation ............................. 101 3.3.5.4. Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction - Libya ......................................106 3.3.5.5. Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction - North Korea...........................107 3.3.5.6. Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction - Iran......................................... 112 3 DOI azonosító: 10.17625/NKE.2014.025 3.3.5.7. Proliferation of weapons of Mass Destruction - Other Issues ........................... 120 3.3.5.8. The U.S. Policy towards South Asia.....................................................................121 3.3.5.9. China and East Asia............................................................................................... 124 3.3.6. Programmes - shaping future means.......................................................................130 3.3.6.1. Missile Defence......................................................................................................131 3.3.6.2. Military Reform - the Rumsfield Doctrine..........................................................139 3.3.7. Unconventional cross-sectoral practices..................................................................143 3.4. Chapter Conclusion.......................................................................................................... 147 4. Options for a U.S. Grand Strategy in 2008............................................................................ 154 4.1 Remarks on Domestic Demands and the International Situation...................................156 4.1.1. The political impact of the sub-prime crisis............................................................ 156 4.1.2. East Asia - the U.S. and the rise of China...............................................................160 4.1.3. Europe: the Georgian War, Missile Defence and transatlantic strains .................. 165 4.1.4. Iraq and Afghanistan................................................................................................. 167 4.1.5. Confronting Iran........................................................................................................ 175 4.2. Possible Options for a post-Bush foreign policy............................................................179 4.3. Neo-Isolationism...............................................................................................................181 4.3.1. Premises..................................................................................................................... 182 4.3.2. Long-term strategies..................................................................................................185 4.3.3. Medium-range policies............................................................................................. 186 4.3.4. Remarks on the possible implementation................................................................190 4.4. Selective Engagement...................................................................................................... 192 4.4.1. Premises..................................................................................................................... 192 4.4.2. Long-term strategies..................................................................................................194 4.4.3. Medium-range policies............................................................................................. 196 4.5. Cooperative Security........................................................................................................ 201 4.5.1. Premises....................................................................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • MYSTIC LEADER ©Christian Bobst Village of Keur Ndiaye Lo
    SENEGAL MYSTIC LEADER ©Christian Bobst Village of Keur Ndiaye Lo. Disciples of the Baye Fall Dahira of Cheikh Seye Baye perform a religious ceremony, drumming, dancing and singing prayers. While in other countries fundamentalists may prohibit music, it is an integral part of the religious practice in Sufism. Sufism is a form of Islam practiced by the majority of the population of Senegal, where 95% of the country’s inhabitants are Muslim Based on the teachings of religious leader Amadou Bamba, who lived from the mid 19th century to the early 20th, Sufism preaches pacifism and the goal of attaining unity with God According to analysts of international politics, Sufism’s pacifist tradition is a factor that has helped Senegal avoid becoming a theatre of Islamist terror attacks Sufism also teaches tolerance. The role of women is valued, so much so that within a confraternity it is possible for a woman to become a spiritual leader, with the title of Muqaddam Sufism is not without its critics, who in the past have accused the Marabouts of taking advantage of their followers and of mafia-like practices, in addition to being responsible for the backwardness of the Senegalese economy In the courtyard of Cheikh Abdou Karim Mbacké’s palace, many expensive cars are parked. They are said to be gifts of his followers, among whom there are many rich Senegalese businessmen who live abroad. The Marabouts rank among the most influential men in Senegal: their followers see the wealth of thei religious leaders as a proof of their power and of their proximity to God.
    [Show full text]
  • African Studies Association 59Th Annual Meeting
    AFRICAN STUDIES ASSOCIATION 59TH ANNUAL MEETING IMAGINING AFRICA AT THE CENTER: BRIDGING SCHOLARSHIP, POLICY, AND REPRESENTATION IN AFRICAN STUDIES December 1 - 3, 2016 Marriott Wardman Park Hotel, Washington, D.C. PROGRAM COMMITTEE CHAIRS: Benjamin N. Lawrance, Rochester Institute of Technology William G. Moseley, Macalester College LOCAL ARRANGEMENTS COMMITTEE CHAIRS: Eve Ferguson, Library of Congress Alem Hailu, Howard University Carl LeVan, American University 1 ASA OFFICERS President: Dorothy Hodgson, Rutgers University Vice President: Anne Pitcher, University of Michigan Past President: Toyin Falola, University of Texas-Austin Treasurer: Kathleen Sheldon, University of California, Los Angeles BOARD OF DIRECTORS Aderonke Adesola Adesanya, James Madison University Ousseina Alidou, Rutgers University Souleymane Bachir Diagne, Columbia University Brenda Chalfin, University of Florida Mary Jane Deeb, Library of Congress Peter Lewis, Johns Hopkins University Peter Little, Emory University Timothy Longman, Boston University Jennifer Yanco, Boston University ASA SECRETARIAT Suzanne Baazet, Executive Director Kathryn Salucka, Program Manager Renée DeLancey, Program Manager Mark Fiala, Financial Manager Sonja Madison, Executive Assistant EDITORS OF ASA PUBLICATIONS African Studies Review: Elliot Fratkin, Smith College Sean Redding, Amherst College John Lemly, Mount Holyoke College Richard Waller, Bucknell University Kenneth Harrow, Michigan State University Cajetan Iheka, University of Alabama History in Africa: Jan Jansen, Institute of Cultural
    [Show full text]
  • Shari'ah and the Secular State
    Shari’ah and the Secular State: Popular Support for and Opposition to Islamic Family Law in Senegal by Carrie S. Konold A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science) in The University of Michigan 2010 Doctoral Committee: Professor Mark A. Tessler, Co-Chair Associate Professor Ted Brader, Co-Chair Professor Mamadou Diouf, Columbia University Professor Jennifer A. Widner, Princeton University © Copyright Carrie S. Konold 2010 Dedication To my parents, Phyllis and David Konold, With love and gratitude ii Acknowledgements I gratefully acknowledge the many individuals and institutions that have made this research possible. First, I thank my undergraduate teachers at Wellesley College— especially Craig Murphy, Joel Krieger, and Ann Velenchik—who inspired my love of learning and the courage to pursue my passions. I am indebted to my advisors at the University of Michigan who have provided intellectual mentorship and friendship throughout my graduate training, research, and writing. Thank you to Ted Brader, Mamadou Diouf, Mark Tessler, and Jennifer Widner for sharing your expertise and encouragement. It has been a true pleasure to know and work with you. Thank you to the many institutions that have funded various portions of my graduate training, conference travel, field research, and dissertation research and writing. At the University of Michigan, I thank the Center for the Education of Women, the International Institute, the Department of Political Science, the Rackham Graduate School, and the Center for Afroamerican and African Studies. I also thank the National Science Foundation, Fulbright IIE, CAORC, Wellesley College, the Charlotte W.
    [Show full text]
  • Carol Shenk Bornman Is Working in Louga with Friends of the Wolof and Mennonite Mission Network Since 1999
    A MEETING OF WORLDS IN SENEGAL Carol Shenk Bornman I relax on a mat in our main room with my two friends, Aminata and Fatou, resting during the heat of the afternoon. It is July 26, 2005, and sweet black tea called attaaya is boiling atop the charcoal burner. In the office nearby, the space shuttle Discovery commentary from www.news.yahoo.com plays on the computer where Caleb & Laurel watch the astronauts working in the shuttle. Upstairs, Isaiah watches the second Lord of the Rings movie. Then we hear the Muslim call to prayer from the mosque close by, much louder than the other two sounds, and quite jarring. A meeting of worlds: space shuttle and local mosque, LOTR characters and astronauts, a powerful prayer call and a powerful ring. We have many opportunities to ponder the meeting of worlds as we work in Senegal. Sometimes we sense a freedom to “push against” boundaries that seem to be set in stone. But more of the time we spend listening to our friends, getting a sense of where they are at in their world view and in their lives, and reading Scripture with them. Senegal’s Four Main Groups of Muslims I would like to start with a brief description of the four main groups of Muslims that live in Senegal, four active Sufi organizations that can also be found in other parts of Africa and around the world. Most statistics cite that 94% of Senegalese belong to one of these organizations, but the majority of those belong to the Tijanis or the Mourides.
    [Show full text]
  • Local Ownership of Projects in Situations of Fragility and Instability
    USAID FUNDS AND LOCALS OWN: LOCAL OWNERSHIP OF PROJECTS IN SITUATIONS OF FRAGILITY AND INSTABILITY. THE CASES OF IDEJEN IN HAITI AND BUILDING PEACE AND PROSPERITY IN CASAMANCE, SENEGAL by Joseph N. Sany A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy Committee: _______________________________________ Jack A. Goldstone, Chair _______________________________________ Janine Wedel _______________________________________ Allison Frendak-Blume _______________________________________ Terrence Lyons _______________________________________ Clare Ignatowski, External Reader _______________________________________ James P. Pfiffner, Program Director _______________________________________ Edward Rhodes, Dean Date: __________________________________ Spring Semester 2013 George Mason University Fairfax, VA USAID Funds and Locals Own: Local Ownership of Projects in Situations of Fragility and Instability. The cases of IDEJEN in Haiti and Building Peace and Prosperity in Casamance , Senegal A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Joseph Nzima Sany Master of Science George Mason University, 2005 Director: Jack Goldstone, Professor School of Public Policy Spring Semester 2013 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2013 Joseph Nzima Sany All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION To my wife, Melanie and our four children; I hope this work inspires them to continuously make a meaningful contribution for the betterment of humankind. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am very grateful to my wife, Melanie, who advised, supported and encouraged me to move forward with this research, when obstacles seemed insurmountable. Writing a dissertation is not only an intellectual endeavor, it is also a psychological one. It tests one’s resolve, stamina and determination.
    [Show full text]
  • Stephen Burman
    SENEGALESE ISLAM: OLD STRENGTHS, NEW CHALLENGES KEY POINTS Islam in Senegal is based around sufi brotherhoods. These have substantial connections across West Africa, including Mali, as well as in North Africa, including Morocco and Algeria. They are extremely popular and historically closely linked to the state. Salafism has had a small presence since the mid-twentieth century. Established Islam in Senegal has lately faced new challenges: o President Wade’s (2000-2012) proximity to the sufi brotherhoods strained the division between the state and religion and compromised sufi legitimacy. o A twin-track education system. The state has a limited grip on the informal education sector, which is susceptible to extremist teaching. o A resurgence of salafism, evidenced by the growing influence of salafist community organisations and reports of support from the Gulf. o Events in Mali and Senegal’s support to the French-led intervention have led to greater questioning about the place of Islam in regional identity. Senegal is therefore vulnerable to growing Islamist extremism. Its institutions and sufi brotherhoods put it in a strong position to resist it, but this should not be taken for granted. DETAIL Mali, 2012. Reports on the jihadist takeover of the North include references to around 20 speakers of Wolof, a language whose native speakers come almost exclusively from Senegal. Earlier reporting refers to a Senegalese contingent among the jihadist kidnappers of Canadian diplomat Robert Fowler. These and other reports (such as January 2013 when an imam found near the Senegal-Mali border was arrested for jihadist links) put into sharper focus the role of Islam in Senegal.
    [Show full text]
  • Islam and Democracy in Senegal
    Ute Gierczynski-Bocandé: Islam and Democracy in Senegal Religion holds an eminent position in Senegal, the crisis of the last decades having given a boost especially to Islam which ninety percent of the population of this west African country profess. However, the adherents of other denominations, mostly catholic Christians and followers of African religions, do not feel threatened: Religious discrimination is unknown in Senegal, where the state and religion are clearly separated and politicians maintain good relations with all religious authorities, endeavouring to encourage peaceful coexistence between the religions. Its relations with the Western world are as important to the Republic of Senegal as those with the Islamic countries. Thus, while President Wade condemned the attacks on the USA of September 11, 2001, the country will also offer Islamic states a platform for talks as it hosts the world conference of Islamic states in 2008. It is beyond doubt that Senegal is endeavouring to establish a symbiosis between Western democratic order principles and oriental religion. Senegal’s Sufism-oriented Islam is organised in brotherhoods with a dynastic and hierarchical order. Such a brotherhood is headed by a caliph who is succeeded by his brother or son. His regional and local representatives are called marabouts, and belonging to the family of a marabout may open many doors. Is this an encounter between a medieval feudal and a modern democratic society? Islamic monks arrived in the region as early as the ninth century, but they only converted the ruling elite, giving Islam the reputation of being a ‘religion of princes’. Kankou Moussa, the ruler of Mali, a flourishing gold kingdom until the 14th century, already knew well how to blend religion and economic interests.
    [Show full text]
  • Terànga and the Art of Hospitality: Engendering the Nation, Politics, and Religion in Dakar, Senegal
    TERÀNGA AND THE ART OF HOSPITALITY: ENGENDERING THE NATION, POLITICS, AND RELIGION IN DAKAR, SENEGAL By Emily Jenan Riley A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Anthropology - Doctor of Philosophy 2016 ABSTRACT TERÀNGA AND THE ART OF HOSPITALITY: ENGENDERING THE NATION, POLITICS AND RELIGION IN DAKAR, SENEGAL By Emily Jenan Riley Senegal, a Muslim majority and democratic country, has long coined itself as "le pays de la terànga" (Land of Hospitality). This dissertation explores the central importance of terànga– the Wolof word which encapsulates the generous and civic-minded qualities of individuals – to events such as weddings and baptisms, women’s political process, as well as everyday calculated and improvisational social encounters. Terànga is both the core symbol, for many, of Senegalese nationalism and collective identity, and the source of contentious and polarizing debates surrounding its qualities and meanings. The investigation of terànga throughout this dissertation exposes the complexities of social and gender ideologies and practices in Senegal. In addition, this dissertation aspires to investigate the subjectivities, and conditions of Senegalese women as well as their contributions to the social, religious, and political realities of contemporary Senegal, and Dakar more specifically. This dissertation focuses on how terànga is debated, talked about, and performed by several groups. First, it investigates the public discourses of terànga as a gendered symbol of national culture and its central importance to the construction of female subjects in their navigation of courtship, marriage, and family relations. Second, an exposé of family ceremonies and the women who conduct them, demonstrates generational shifts in the interpretation and value given to the process of terànga in a contemporary moment where daughters are redefining its meaning from that of their mother's generation.
    [Show full text]
  • Senegal's Reformers Call for Science to Fix Ramadan Dates
    SATURDAY, JUNE 20, 2015 Senegal’s reformers call for science to fix Ramadan dates he Muslim holy month of Ramandan unites the Islamic world in ‘God is omniscient’ a devotional act of fasting from sunrise to sunset-but in Senegal An estimated 90-95 percent of Senegalese are estimated to be Tits approach brings divisive arguments over the moon. The Muslim, and Islamic practice takes the form of membership of one of annual observance, when the faithful commemorate the original rev- four Sufi brotherhoods led by a “marabout”, or Quranic teacher. Each elation of the Holy Quran to Prophet Mohammed (PBUH), begins with of these-the larger Tijaniyyah and Muridiyyah orders, the pan-Islamic the appearance of the first slender crescent of the new moon. Qadiriyyah and the smaller Layene-instruct their followers on the start Yet this event is determined-in strict accordance with the Quran- of Ramadan after studying the skies with the naked eye, adding to the by observation with the naked eye, a practice many see as outdated. background noise. The country’s only astronomical society is pushing for reform to inject “In Senegal, it is the families that give the ‘ndigel’ to fast,” said some science into the process, but faces opposition from traditional- Ndiaye, using the word for “order” in the local Wolof language. “Each ists in the conservative west African nation. The National Commission family has its own committee to which its followers refer.” A CONA- for the Observation of the Lunar Crescent (CONACOCC) has the task of COCC member told AFP on condition of anonymity that Senegal’s determining the beginning of each lunar month and this week most senior marabouts were in agreement that this was the proper declared that Ramadan would start yesterday.
    [Show full text]
  • Senegal's Reformers Call for Science to Fix Ramadan Dates 19 June 2015, by Malick Rokhy Ba
    Senegal's reformers call for science to fix Ramadan dates 19 June 2015, by Malick Rokhy Ba the Lunar Crescent (CONACOCC) has the task of determining the beginning of each lunar month and this week declared that Ramadan would start on Friday. But many Senegalese Muslims began fasting on Thursday, emulating neighbouring Mauritania, Mali and the Gambia, as well as Saudi Arabia, home to the sacred pilgrimage sites of Medina and Mecca. "The observation of the lunar crescent occupies a very important place in our activities because it is the subject that most interests the Senegalese," Maram Kaire, chairman of the Senegalese Association for the Promotion of Astronomy, told AFP. Senegal's only astronomical society is pushing for reform to inject some science into the process of "We have been trying for more than five years to determining the start of Ramadan, but faces opposition make a statement at the approach of religious from traditionalists in the conservative west African festivals to raise awareness about how the crescent nation moon works and how to observe it." 'For us to adapt' The Muslim holy month of Ramandan unites the The scientist believes the method of simply staring Islamic world in a devotional act of fasting from up at the sky is becoming increasingly sunrise to sunset—but in Senegal its approach anachronistic, 400 years after the invention of the brings divisive arguments over the moon. telescope. The annual observance, when the faithful "Visual observation is uncertain because it is at the commemorate the original revelation of the Koran mercy of weather factors, like an overcast sky, for to Mohammed, begins with the appearance of the example," says Kaire, whose members use modern first slender crescent of the new moon.
    [Show full text]
  • Brotherhood Solidarity and the (Re) Negotiation of Identity Among Senegalese Migrants in Durban
    BROTHERHOOD SOLIDARITY AND THE (RE) NEGOTIATION OF IDENTITY AMONG SENEGALESE MIGRANTS IN DURBAN BILOLA NICOLINE FOMUNYAM COLLEGE OF HUMANITIES, SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for a PhD in anthropology at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. SUPERVISOR: Prof. VB OJONG JULY 2014 DECLARATION I, Bilola Nicoline Fomunyam, hereby declare that this thesis is my own unaided work and has not been submitted previously for any degree or examination in any other university. All references, citations, and borrowed ideas have been duly acknowledged. Bilola Nicoline Fomunyam (208519680) 07/10/14 i DEDICATION This work is dedicated to God almighty for his grace and favour in my life and to my brother Divine langmia Fomunyam whose personal integrity and uncompromising ethical stance is a beacon of light as well as a living legacy for me. What would I have done without a brother like you. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are several weave of circumstances as well as prompt of kin that form the tapestry of actualities and actors that worked together to lead to the realization of this dissertation. Even though only my name is written on the cover page of this work, many people contributed to its creation by walking some of the way with me. The words I offer here can never fully express the immense gratitude I feel towards the people who have gently accompanied me to where I now find myself, where I am able to say THANK YOU. Notably, I must begin by thanking my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ for ‘bringing me to it and then seeing me through it’.
    [Show full text]
  • Movilización Social Y Cambio Político»
    Cuadernos de Estrategia 163 Instituto Español Islamismos en (r)evolución: de Estudios movilización social y cambio Estratégicos político MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Instituto Cuadernos de Estrategia 163 Español Islamismos en (r)evolución: de Estudios Estratégicos movilización social y cámbio político MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA CATÁLOGO GENERAL DE PUBLICACIONES OFICIALES http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ Edita: MINISTERIO SECRETARÍA DE DEFENSA GENERAL TÉCNICA www.bibliotecavirtualdefensa.es © Autor y editor, 2013 NIPO: 083-13-207-0 (edición en papel) NIPO: 083-13-206-5 (edición libro-e) ISBN: 978-84-9781-875-9 (edición en papel) ISBN: 978-84-9781-876-6 (edición libro-e) Depósito Legal: M-26330-2013 Imprime: Imprenta Ministerio de Defensa Fecha de edición: diembre 2013 Las opiniones emitidas en esta publicación son exclusiva responsabilidad del autor de la misma. Los derechos de explotación de esta obra están amparados por la Ley de Propiedad Intelectual. Ninguna de las partes de la misma puede ser reproducida, almacenada ni transmitida en ninguna forma ni por medio alguno, electrónico, mecánico o de grabación, incluido fotocopias, o por cualquier otra forma, sin permiso previo, expreso y por escrito de los titulares del © Copyright. En esta edición se ha utilizado papel 100% reciclado libre de cloro. ÍNDICE Página Introducción El Despertar Árabe y los activismos islámicos .................................................. 9 Resumen ....................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]