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Revista Elcano Edición Revista Número #17 I Noviembre - Diciembre 2016 Publicaciones Has the time come to reconsider Turkey’s EU membership? Trump y el baile de alianzas en el Sudeste Asiático Causas del rechazo a la globalización: más allá de la desigualdad y la xenofobia Las elecciones legislativas de Marruecos de 2016: contexto y lecturas Los militares y la nueva Administración Trump, ¿vuelta al realismo? Trump, Rajoy II y el futuro de la relación estratégica entre España y EEUU How Europe should deal with a Trump Administration Trump on trade: from populism to policy Sonata de un año de gobernabilidad en Portugal: en busca de un adagio Climate change in COP 22: irreversibility of action and rulebook development despite the elephant in the room Eight recommendations for the II National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security Spain and Israel: are they rivals or complementary? La defensa europea entre Conectados Actividades la Estrategia Global y su Elcano en la redes sociales Mesa redonda "Europe After implementación Brexit" Patterns of Involvement among 4ª edición del Foro Elcano sobre Individuals Arrested for Islamic Entrevista con... Terrorismo Global State-related Terrorist Activities in Mara Marinaki Spain, 2013-2016 Número #17 I Noviembre - Diciembre 2016 - Diciembre I Noviembre #17 Número Coordinadora: María Dolores de Azategui © 2017 Real Instituto Elcano C/ Príncipe de Vergara, 51 28006 Madrid www.realinstitutoelcano.org ISSN: 2341-4006 Depósito Legal: M-14968-2014 En este número... Entre los temas abordados en este número, dentro del apartado de Publicaciones, destacan las implicaciones de la llegada de Trump en las relaciones hispano-estadounidenses; las causas del rechazo a la globalización; o las elecciones legislativas en Marruecos. Asimismo, se tratan cuestiones como el primer año de mandato de Rebelo de Sousa en Portugal; la COP 22 y el cambio climático; las relaciones España-Israel; la Estrategia Global europea en materia de defensa; o los patrones de participación de los individuos arrestados por actividades terroristas relacionadas con Estado Islámico. Andrés Ortega, investigador senior del Real Instituto Elcano, nos presenta en su Entrevista a Mara Marinaki, primera asesora principal de la Alta Representante para la Política Exterior y de Seguridad de la UE, en materia de género. Entre las Actividades organizadas en estos dos últimos meses del año, cabe señalar el acto de lanzamiento de las actividades de la oficina del Real Instituto Elcano en Bruselas, con la celebración de la mesa redonda “Europe After Brexit”, coorganizada con Ifri; la organización de la 4ª edición del Foro Elcano sobre Terrorismo Global; el encuentro “España-Israel: diálogos y perspectivas”; y del seminario “EU Enlargement towards the Western Balkan región: What role for civil society?”. Asimismo, el Instituto recibió la visita, entre otros, del embajador de Italia, Stefano Sannino; Edmundo Jarquín, exembajador de Nicaragua en España; Henrique Cymerman, periodista y profesor de la Universidad IDC de Herzliya; y Gilles Kepel, profesor de Sciences Po. En la sección Conectados se recoge la presencia del Real Instituto Elcano en las redes sociales, principalmente en Twitter, a través de los tuits más destacado. Contenidos Publicaciones 7 Has the time come to reconsider 103 Spain and Israel: are they rivals or Turkey’s EU membership? complementary? William Chislett Alfred Tovias 13 Trump y el baile de alianzas en el 115 La defensa europea entre Sudeste Asiático la Estrategia Global y su Mario Esteban implementación Félix Arteaga 23 Causas del rechazo a la globalización: más allá de la 133 Patterns of Involvement among desigualdad y la xenofobia Individuals Arrested for Islamic Miguel Otero Iglesias y State-related Terrorist Activities in Federico Steinberg Spain, 2013-2016 Carola García-Calvo & 34 Las elecciones legislativas de Fernando Reinares Marruecos de 2016: contexto y lecturas Bernabé López García y Miguel Hernando de Larramendi 44 Los militares y la nueva Administración Trump, ¿vuelta al Entrevista con... realismo? Enrique Fojón 151 Entrevista con Mara Marinaki 49 Trump, Rajoy II y el futuro de la relación estratégica entre España y EEUU Luis Simón Actividades 60 How Europe should deal with a Trump Administration 159 Mesa redonda "Europe After Ulrich Speck Brexit" 63 Trump on trade: from populism to 160 4ª edición del Foro Elcano sobre policy Terrorismo Global Richard Higgott 67 Sonata de un año de gobernabilidad en Portugal: en busca de un adagio Patrícia Lisa 75 Climate change in COP 22: Conectados irreversibility of action and rulebook development despite the elephant in 159 Elcano en las redes sociales the room Lara Lázaro-Touza 98 Eight recommendations for the II National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security María Solanas-Cardín Publicaciones PUBLICACIONES Has the time come to reconsider Turkey’s EU membership? William Chislett1 The European Commission’s latest (negotiations were started in October 2005, annual report on Turkey’s progress in 18 years after formally applying) is so critical that it would be appropriate to wonder meeting the conditions to become a full whether the two sides should consider EU member shows that the rule of law, abandoning the accession process. media freedom and human rights have Analysis deteriorated to such an extent since last Background to the report July’s military coup attempt that it would The 19th report on Turkey’s accession be appropriate to wonder whether the process comes four months after the failed coup on 15 July that sought to topple two sides should consider abandoning the democratically elected government the accession process. of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with the loss of 265 lives. Erdoğan blamed Summary the coup on the exiled US-based Islamic President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is using the cleric Fethullah Gülen –a former ally turned coup, which he says was masterminded by arch enemy in a power struggle, whose the exiled US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah extradition has been requested– and Gülen, to purge Turkey massively of his his followers. Since then very extensive opponents and reshape the country to his suspensions, dismissals, arrests and liking. The EU accession process is going detentions have taken place over nowhere. Turkey-EU relations are at a low if alleged links to the Gülen movement not breaking point. and involvement in the coup. More than 100,000 people, a staggering number, The European Commission’s latest annual have been swept up in the purge, depleting report on Turkey’s progress in meeting the the ranks of the armed forces, judiciary, conditions to become a full EU member 1 Author of two books on Turkey (Euromoney), seven working papers for the Elcano Royal Institute and a study for the Open Society Foundation (Istanbul) comparing Spain’s and Turkey’s EU trajectories. He has twice been a Visiting Scholar at Bilkent University, Ankara. 7 schools, universities and ministries and The EU and Turkey struck a deal last March going well beyond anything that could to stem the flow of refugees who use Turkey be justified by the coup. Gülenists were as a staging post to get to the EU. In return infiltrating institutions and creating what the for taking back those who land in Greece, government calls a ‘parallel state’. Some Ankara was promised €6 billion to help care 300 people, for instance, lost their jobs for the estimated 2.7 million refugees from in the Foreign Ministry including several Syria and Iraq stuck in Turkey, along with ambassadors. visa-free travel. The European Commission says more work is needed and as a result it Many institutions and private companies discarded Ankara’s end of October deadline have also been shut down and their for the visa liberalisation. The deal is looking assets seized or transferred to public shaky. institutions. Powers activated under a state of emergency declared on 20 July for three Only 15 of the 33 chapters of the acquis that months and extended for another three require negotiations have been opened in 11 months on 3 October have stifled the media years (the last one in December 2015) and and other forms of opposition to an even just one provisionally closed. Turkey’s failure greater extent than before the coup. to implement the 2005 Additional Protocol to the Ankara Agreement and extend its In the predominantly Kurdish south-east of customs union with the EU by opening its the country, the renewed war between the ports and airports to Greek-Cypriot traffic state and the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ led the EU to suspend at the end of 2006 Party (PKK, which remains on the EU list of the opening of eight chapters related to the terrorist organisations) following the collapse Customs Union and announce that no more of the settlement process in July 2015 chapters would be provisionally closed until has led to heavy casualties. In the latest Turkey had fulfilled its commitment. France batch of arrests, 53 of the 59 pro-Kurdish and Cyprus have unilaterally blocked other People’s Democratic Party (HDP) members chapters. of parliament, including the two Co-Chairs, were detained this month. The EU and Turkey struck a deal last March to stem the flow of refugees who use Turkey as a staging post to get to the EU. 8 PUBLICACIONES The state of play Before the coup, parliament was beginning The rule of law is a paramount feature to implement reforms and the legislative of a full democracy, and it is this area – requirements of the visa liberalisation particularly given the scale and collective roadmap, but progress since then has nature of the measures taken since the not been sufficient. Several key pieces of coup attempt– that is woefully inadequate legislation that were adopted regarding the and causing the EU concern. This year’s rule of law and fundamental rights were not report makes no bones about Turkey’s in line with European standards.
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