Selected articles concerning Israel, published weekly by Suburban Orthodox Toras Chaim’s (Baltimore) Israel Action Committee Edited by Jerry Appelbaum ( [email protected] ) | Founding editor: Sheldon J. Berman Z”L

Issue 8 7 6 Volume 2 1 , Number 7 Parshias Mishpatim | Shekalim | Rosh Chodesh Adar February 13 , 20 2 1

Biden’s already backing down on Iran? By Jonathan S. Tobin jns.org February 9, 2021 The president sent a strong message to Tehran about deal before Biden lifts sanctions on them, Psaki made it nuclear talks. A day later, his spokesperson walked it clear that w hen it comes to Biden’s statements on the back, showing that Obama - era appeasers remain in subject, we shouldn’t believe our lying eyes and ears. charge. Here’s the exchange as reported by In his first major foreign - policy speech delivered last RealClearPolitics.com: week, President Joe Biden sent a variety of confusing and “Since then, the [Iranian] Supreme Leader has said the mixed messages, but one thing was clear: Whatever U.S. needs to act first,” CBS’s Weijia Jiang t old Psaki. “Is Donald Trump was for, he was against. Thus, he sounded this a non - negotiable point for President Biden, and if so, tough on Russia but soft on China. And though he paid lip how do you get out of this stalemate?” service to the idea that his administration would emphasize “Just to be clear, the president never said that, cooperation with allies, once you got into the details about exactly,” the White House press secretary replied. “It was that idea, it was obvi ous that Biden wasn’t terribly stated by the interviewer, Norah O’Donnell, and he didn’t interested in working with Israel and Saudi Arabia — respond to the question.” America’s two most important friends in the Middle East. “Well, he nodded,” said Jiang. That contradicted the narrative about Trump’s “I think if we were announcing a major policy change, “America First” policies and those Biden says he will we would do it in a different way than a slight head nod,” pursue. So did th e president’s assertion that there would be Psaki replied, saying that their position has not changed. no line between foreign and domestic policy, and that the T hat’s good news for Khamenei and the rest of the best interests of American workers would be paramount in Islamist theocrats, who have probably had trouble his objectives, which sounds like an echo of Trump’s containing their glee over the announcement that veteran policies. Iran and terror appeaser Robert Malley had been named as But the real contradiction about h is foreign policy is Biden’s point man on the issue. not the one between Biden and Trump. It may be the one It was a si gnal to anyone who had any doubts that between Biden and Biden. If a major Biden policy stand Malley and the rest of the Obama alumni association that on Iran can’t last even a day, then it’s not certain who’s in has returned to the corridors of power that just as was the charge — the president, or his handlers and staff, who may case from 2013 to 2015 during the first round of Iran think the president can’t be trusted to stick to the policies negotiations, whenever the ayatollahs say “no, ” Americans they’ve drawn up for him if let loose in an interview on desperate for a deal at any price will merely concede the television. point and move on to their next concession. On Sunday, Biden appeared in a much - publicized pre - Nor is this a minor point. If Iran doesn’t at least go Super Bowl interview on CBS with Norah O’Donnell. back to the situation that existed in January 2017, then When she asked about Iran, he sounded as tough as nails Biden’s talk about the necessi ty for resuming the when it comes to talks to get them back into compliance agreement that was former President Barack Obama’s with the dangerously weak nuclear deal that his Obama signature foreign - policy achievement is meaningless. administration colleagues negotiated in 2015. Even if Iran were to do so, that wouldn’t make the In response to O’Donnell’s question as to whether he pact any less perilous for the security of Middle Eastern will lift sanctions o n Iran before it ceases its illegal uranium countries or the West. The sunset clauses that the Iranians enrichment activities in order to entice them back to the insisted upon will start expiring in just a few years, negotiating table, Biden was firm: “No,” was his reply. She meaning that by the end of the decade, Iran will be able to followed that up by asking, “They have to stop enriching openly pursue nukes with Western permission. Those uranium first?” Biden solemnly nodded in assent. clauses must be eliminated in a renegotiated agreemen t or But when asked about this the next day at the daily the United States — and its allies — will be forced to either White House press briefing, spokeswoman Jen Psaki made accept a nuclear Iran or take military action. The same it clear that when it comes to enunciating policy, the goes for the fact that the pact does nothing to restrain president isn’t the final authority in this White House. Tehran’s military adventurism or its support for When a reporter noted tha t in response to Biden’s international terror groups. statement, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Bu t if Biden’s foreign - policy team is strong enough to enunciated that Iran will not cease its work towards a force him to walk back a sensibly tough stand so quickly, nuclear weapon or move back into compliance with the then there is little hope that he is tough enough to insist on Focus o n Israel February 13, 2021 Page 2 a renegotiation, instead of meekly accepting whatever it is and the Houthis — who unsurprisingly responded to that Iran is willing t o give the White House in order to Biden’s gesture by escalating the fighting rather than have its formal permission to proceed further down the standing d own — prevail would make the situation even road towards a goal that all recent American presidents worse. have vowed to stop. Just as important, the pressure on the Saudis is an But that wasn’t the only gift to Iran from the Biden indication the Biden is just as unconcerned about the fact administration in the last week. that their goodwill was essential to the Abraham Accords. On F riday, the State Department told Congress that, Couple that with Biden’s signal that h e will cancel arms along with other measures demonstrating the sales to the United Arab Emirates that were part of the administration’s displeasure with the Saudis, it was negotiations that led to the accords, and it’s clear that the reversing the Trump administration’s designation of administration has no real interest in expanding or even Yemen’s Houthi rebels as a terrorist group as part of an preserving Trump’s peace breakthrough. ef fort to end the war in that country. That sounds like a While Biden and Secreta ry of State Anthony Blinken noble thing to do, as it’s true that both the Saudis and their speak at times as if they care about the alliance with Israel Yemen government allies are an unsavory bunch. (though the president has still yet to speak to Prime However, the choice is not between authoritarians and Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since his inauguration), liberals, but between friendly autho ritarians and Islamist virtually every step the administration is taking undermine s terrorists like the Houthis, who are Iranian auxiliaries. The the relationship with the Jewish state. war in Yemen is a human - rights disaster, but letting Iran Mr. Tobin is editor in chief of JNS — Jewish News Syndicate .

Not Being a U.S. Priority Can Benefit Israel By Lahav Harkov jpost.com February 7, 2021 Benign neglect. World in Data (though it must be considered that some In the two - and - a - half weeks since Biden’s countries do not report data reliably). It is also the leader inauguration, he hasn’t found the time to call Prime in hospitalizations with coronavirus, though that is a Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and some have made a fuss category in which most of the world does not provide about it. The problem, in this case, may be more with the data. people making the fuss than the actual lack of a phone call. For the foreseeable future, COVID - 19 will be Biden’s The previous two presidents, Barack Obama and top priority – and he said as much before entering office. Donald Trump, gave Israel an inordinate amount of After that come my riad domestic issues. attention, in different ways. Obama, intent on putting Still, as White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said “daylight” between the US and Israel, pressured Israel to recently, foreign policy is Biden’s “first love.” Biden did make concessions to the Palestinians, and then pursued a take the time to give a foreign policy speech last week – nuclear deal with Iran, partly out of concerns that Israel but he didn’t mention Israel once. He also didn’t mention would attack, which would have provided Iran with a legal the I ran nuclear threat. The only Middle Eastern issue he path to the bomb. discussed was the civil war in Yemen and related Trump was much friendlier to Israel, recognizing humanitarian crisis, making an oblique reference to Iran’s Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and facilitating the sponsorship of the Houthi rebels. normalization of Israel and four Arab s tates via the And that’s fine for Israel. We don’t have a war going Abraham Accords. But that embrace from a highly on. The Biden administration doesn’t have any “gifts” for polarizing president now under impeachment for allegedly us a - la Trump, but the president also clearly doesn’t think inciting an insurrection was, in some ways, a bear hug, the becoming the umpteenth US leader to negotiate peace consequences of which Israel will have to deal with between Israel and the Palestinians – and the pressure on moving forward. Jerusalem that would inevitably com e with it – is a top Some have said Biden is now giving Netanyahu the priority at the moment. Do we really need to be mentioned cold shoulder as a response to the prime minister returning in his speech right now? Trump’s warm embrace, and that could be so. The mainstays of the US - Israel relationship are still But it’s worth considering the explanation that Biden there, with CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kenneth is trying to be the “normal” president. McKenzie visiting, indicating continued security "Biden signals ret urn to normality on first day as cooper ation between the countries. No one in power is president," the Financial Times headline read last month. threatening to scale any of that back. "Biden promises a return to normalcy," The San Francisco Plus, there is some action going on outside the Oval Chronicle wrote. CNN said "President Biden sets bold Office that is of interest to Israel, like calls from the US timeline for a return to normal life." Secretary of State and National Security Adviser to Right now, the U S, like the rest of the world, is in the Jer usalem, various public statements calling for Iran to throes of a pandemic. The US is in 10th place for average return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement and COVID - 19 deaths per million people, according to Our promising to speak with regional allies before Iran, and the Page 3 February 13, 2021 Focus on Israel

State Department official with the Israeli - Palestinian some kind of crisis may want to consider whether it is in portfolio calling Palestinian officials. And the State Israel’s interest to always be at the center of attention. Department came out against the International Criminal Israelis often invei gh against double - standards when every Court ruling that it may investigate Israel for war crimes. move the government or military makes is turned over and But Biden hasn’t dipped his toes into the Middle East picked at constantly by the international community. A pool since his inauguration. He hasn’t called any leaders little peace and quiet from Washington could do us good. fro m the region yet, so Netanyahu is not being uniquely America – or at least its leadership – is toutin g a return snubbed. to normalcy. Israel might benefit from being treated like a Those who think the lack of phone call is indicative of normal American ally, as well.

Formal Relations Between Israel and Saudi Arabia: A Question of ‘When,’ Not ‘If’ By Henrique Cymerman algemeiner.com February 8, 2021 As a wave of normalization agreements between to take back to the Israel public. Nothing catalyzes new Israel and Arab Sunni states have swept the region, cooperation more than sharing a common enemy — in many have asked when regional powerhouse Saudi this case, Iran. The Saudis have one major nightmare: Arabia will also formalize its long - standing, quiet waking up to discover that Iran is days away from relationship with Israel . possessing nuclear weapons. Quietly, Riyadh and Jerusalem have already es tablished Israel is perceived as a natural partner to counter the a slowly advancing normalization process, made up of threat. But there are other factors at play, to o. Saudi cooperation on defense and intelligence, business and Arabia’s 2030 vision is a plan to rescue its economy by trade, and inter - religious dialogue. diversification, which is today 90% reliant on oil. This According to media reports, the IDF chief of staff and vision fully lines up with developing an alliance with Israel, the head of the Mossad have been guests of the Saudi because the changes Riyadh seeks involve Israeli government — a part of the crawling normalization participation. process. The clu es are all around. Israeli airliners fly over Saudi Reports about Saudi anger over an Israeli leak in Arabia en route to the UAE. Google is connecting Israel November of a visit by Prime Minister Netanyahu to Saudi and Saudi Arabia to a single network of fiberoptics that Arabia, and his meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed runs all the way to India. Israel could also play a significant Bin Salman (MBS), reflect genuine anger in Riyadh, role in the Saudi plan to b uild a brand - new city on the Red although it is also convenient for the Saudis to publicly Sea coastline. Neom, with a planned budget of 500 billion protest the leak. There is anger too in Israel over dollars, will be a zero - emissions city powered by renewable comments made about the Jewish state by Saudi prince energy, and will feature flying drone taxis. Israeli hi - tech Turki Al Faisal. companies could receive contracts to help bu ild it. But there are always ups and downs in a relationship, Another initiative being promoted by MBS, is a and it’s the long - term trend that really counts. It therefore network of trains from Haifa to the Persian Gulf, via the appears that it’s a question of when, not if, Riyadh will take Palestinian Authority, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. MBS has the next step toward full normalization. much to gain from normalization with Israel fully, since To see why that is the case, it’s worth taking stock of this is also a strong path to reaching a good status with the the strategic tidal shift that has was hed through the Middle Biden administration, which has deep doubts over Saudi East in the past decade. Two meetings held between Arabia due to concerns over human rights. myself and Saudi princes help illustrate this geopolitical Moreover, Saudi Arabia could play a significant role in revolution. restarting Israeli - Palestinian negotiations — and by doing In May 2010, in Rio de Janeiro, I chaired a panel at a so, earn cr edit in Washington. The Palestinians are hoping UN conference for world leaders. At the end of the event , the Biden administration will resume all economic aid, the Saudi Foreign Minister at the time, Saud Al - Faisal, reopen a consulate in Jerusalem, and reopen the PLO’s approached the stage, and greeted me with a message: embassy in Washington, and it expects the Saudis to assist “Tell your friends you can use our air space.” in these efforts. I smiled at him, and replied, “But your highness, I’m On the other hand, the re is Saudi anger at the not a pilot.” Four years later, in New York, I was invited Palestinians, who have been described in Riyadh as by Saud’s brother, Turki al - Faisal, to a Saudi - owned hotel ungrateful for all the Saudi assistance they have received. in New York. “You in Israel have not yet understood that But officially, the Saudi government places the Palestinians a revolution is taking place in the Middle East,” he told as a central issue, and the regime is keen to contribute me. “It’s true that your path to Riyadh runs through to wards a solution to the conflict. Ramallah. But today, you have open doors in front of you During visits to Saudi Arabia in December 2019 and in the region.” February 2020, it became clear to me that Riyadh is the In the 90 - minute conversation, it became clear that the large silent partner behind the dramatic decisions by the senior Saudi diplomat was presenting me with a message Focus o n Israel February 13, 2021 Page 4

UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco to normalize relations with The UAE prepared its public thoroughly for Isr ael. nor malization, with consistent new messaging on Israel In parallel, MBS has good reason to wait before across all media and social media. MBS is only now getting following suit himself. One major reason is that MBS, who a similar initiative going, and is pushing it into a high gear. could become king in the coming years, needs time to In the meanwhile, Israel and Saudi Arabia continue to prepare public opinion in his country. enjoy their deep, quiet all iance. For decades, the Saudi people were nourished by Mr. Cymerman is a publishing e xpert at The MirYam Institute, the incit ement against Israel, including by the ultra - leading international forum for Israel focused discussion, dialogue, conservative Wahabi Islamic elements in the state. and debate, centered on campus presentations, engagement with Suddenly, the messaging on Israel has seen a 180 - degree international legislators, and gold - standard trips to the Israel. turn. But the public requires time to process the change.

Understanding the U.S. Position on Settlements — and the Twin Political Crises of America and Israel By Tal Schneider timesofisrael.com February 3, 2021 Insights from Mike Pompeo’s former adviser on Israel backers while retaining the ability to disavow them, as policy. when he said a neo - Nazi rally in Charlottesville included Peter Berkowitz never pl anned on becoming the US “very fine people on both s ides.” State Department’s top policy adviser. The conservative “In my view the president’s words on Charlottesville political scientist planned on leaving Stanford University’s have been misreported,” Berkowitz said. “It’s clear from Hoover Institute for a year to focus on Israel policy under the transcript that he didn’t say the ‘Nazis were good former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, and then leave. people,’ that he clearly denounced the Nazis and said that Close to three years later, including a year and a half as in the crowd, there were some good people.” director of Policy Planning at the State Department, Berkowitz, 62, is a former law professor and is now Berkowitz is finally back in the ivory tower, with the the Tad and Dianne Taube senior fellow at the Hoover knowledge that policy wonks make plans and God laughs. Institution at Stanford University, where he has returned, From his own career plans, to rea lizing that the State though he lives in Washington, DC, his hometown for the Department would not lead on the Middle East peace last 20 years. ( Due to the pandemic, all classes and research process, to unintended consequences of Washington are done online anyway.) pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, to misunderstandings His academic resume includes a bachelor’s in English regarding the Trump administration’s West Bank stance — literature from Swarthmore College, a master’s in Berkowitz knows no t everything has to go according to philosophy from Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and plan for it to work out. both a Juris Doctorate and PhD in political science from Though he remains a firm supporter of many of the Yale University. Trump administration’s policies, Berkowitz believes the Before joining the Trump administration, he served as legacy of former president Donald Trump has been the dean of students for the Public Interest Fellowship, forever trashed by the events of January 6, 2021, when which awards fellowships to conservative intellectuals, and throngs of Trump supporters, egged on by the president taught at the Tikvah Fund, which promote s Jewish himself, stormed the United States Capitol. conservative ideas and funds Israeli right - wing ventures “January 6, the day of the attack on the Congress, such as the Mida news website, the Kohelet Forum and represented a terrible day for the United States of the Institute for Zionist Strategies. America,” Berkowitz told The Times of I srael via Zoom, Unlike most foreign policy, big issues were directed in his first post - Trump interview, just 48 hours after the out of the White House inauguration of US President Joe Biden. Berkowitz was invited t o join the State Department Berkowitz noted that Trump had the right to challenge policy planning staff in the fall of 2018 and came on for a the election results, but once the states certified the results single year with a specific task: to advise Pompeo on in mid - December that we nt out the window and he should Israel - related matters. But about seven months into his have dropped his protests and changed tack. tenure, Kiron Skinner was forced out as director of policy “He could have said, look what we’ve achieved, for planning over her abrasive management style and example, obtaining the vaccines within nine months. Berkowitz was asked to step into the role. Instead, he revved up his staunchest supporters, by using He thought hard about turning it down, he said. the kind of languag e he did, and he helped bring down a “Many voices in my head said, ‘You’ve got other kind of catastrophe on his party, on himself, and on the things to do. Do you want to be the director? Enormous country. He stained his legacy, no doubt,” Berkowitz said. responsibilit ies. You came here to focus on one matter. Berkowitz adds a caveat, though, noting that though You’re going back and you have many tasks and Trump used “rabble - rousing rhetoric,” he also told his responsibilities back at Hoover at Stanford,'” he said. “But followers to remain peaceful. He rejects the notion that the one voice that came out of my mouth said, ‘It would Trump used doublespeak to incite his less respectable be an honor to serve, sir.’” Page 5 February 13, 2021 Focus on Israel

The policy planning staff he headed at the State the world, to the free and open international order, to Department functions as a sort of special operations unit liberal democracies also. within Foggy Bottom, reporting directly to the secretary The newspapers certainly reported last spring that the and keeping him apprised on long - term policy matters. secretary came to talk about the peace plan, came to talk What follows is a discussion with Berkowitz, edited about Iran, and came to talk about China, the Haifa Port, for sp ace and clarity: and so on. And here’s the point to emphasize. That’s not The Times of Israel: When you were at the State singling Israel out. One aspect of this long paper that the Department, were you able to craft long - term policy on policy planning staff published in November, “The Israel? elements of the China Challenge,” is that China has been Peter Berkowitz: My specific responsibility was to undertaking efforts of economic coercio n, co - optation, in keep the secretary informed about Israel matters. But as every region of the world. So what we’re concerned about, you know, almost imm ediately, the president placed the we were concerned about in Israel, and I hope the Biden Israel portfolio in the White House, led by Jared Kushner; administration will continue to be concerned about in Jason Greenblatt initially was part of that team and Israel, are matters that we are concerned about Ambassador [David] Friedman was a part of that team. everywhere, in the In do - Pacific, in Central Asia, in Europe, And Secretary Pompeo was part of that team, but unlike in Africa, in the Western Hemisphere, and in the United m ost foreign policy, big issues were directed out of the States. White House. So what did he say to Netanyahu? There were reports How did Pompeo grasp the constantly recurring he was unhappy about Israel’s committee to vet Chinese elections in the Middle East’s only democracy? Is this investments in Israel. something you discussed with him? There was a comment I’m not in a position to say what Secretary Pompeo from Trump between the first and second Israeli elections, said to Prime Minister Netanyahu. But I can repeat this. where he remarked he thought Netanyahu had won the Everywhere Secretary Pompeo has gone, and many of his election, not understanding that there was no immediate closest advisers carry the same message with them, and the final result. message is, the Chinese Communist Party, with its deals, Secretary Pompeo had a detailed and acute represents something very dangerous. Because by building understanding of the Israeli political system and the infrastructure, or maintaining infrastructure in your challenges that Benjamin Netanyahu faced, and the country, it will increase its ability to engage in surveillance significance of the various kinds of opposition to him. By and cyberwarfare, and that will create problems for the the way, not just from the center - left, but from the right - United States in terms of interoperability, in terms of wing. I actually was in Israel during one of the election sharing information with you. cycles and remember a radio interview re garding the ‘A cost to every policy’ proposed annexation [of the West Bank] and an MK from In May 2018, Pompeo laid out his 12 points — 12 the right - wing saying, “I’m not pleased at all with the tough demands of Iran for it to meet in order to restart suggested annexation, I don’t even understand what the negotiations for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Prime Minister means by annexation. How can he suggest nuclear d eal. Some saw the tough stance as impossible for annexing something that already belongs to us?” Iran to meet and meant only to justify new sanctions. Did To emphasize, I believe Secretary Pompeo had an those tough demands accomplish their goals? accurate, sophisticated understanding of those We withdrew from the JCPOA and we imposed a complexities that Netanyahu faced. But in general, the maximum pressure campaign, the purpose of which was to tensions within the body of Israeli politics, which received persu ade or impel the Iranians to return to the negotiating expression in the ele ctions, would have been part of any table. There’s no doubt that the maximum pressure assessment of the chances for success of the White House campaign had a big impact in depriving Iran of funds that peace plan. That understanding of Israeli domestic politics would have been used for exporting terror, for building was the sort of thing that Pompeo was interested in, in missiles, for expanding its military. In addition, we took order for him to make a reasoned judgment about the out [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general] Qassem plan. Soleimani. And this is an important achievement for the One of your missions was to focus on long - term US Trump administration — we solidified our relationships policy with respect to China. We know Pompeo pressed with Gulf countries. In fact, it was part of the Iran policy, Israel on its relationship with China in a meeting with the solidi fying relations with Gulf countries, that helped lay prime minister. What did he say privately to Netanyahu? the foundation for the normalization that emerged this One of Secretary Pompeo’s big achievements, during summer. So from our point of view, the Iran policy his time in the State Department, was to reorient American notched some significant successes, but certainly not our foreign policy around the China challenge, that is, to see ultimate aim, which was a better deal w ith the Iranians. the People’s Republic of China governed by the Chinese On the downside, the outcome of your policy is that Communist Party as the No. 1 threat to freedom around the Iranians, who stopped enriching following the 2015 F ocus o n Israel February 13, 2021 Page 6

JCPOA, are now back to enriching up to the dangerous tremendously positive development for stability in the level of 20 percent enrichment. Middle East. But what brings the Emirates, Israel, Bahrain Yes, this is very much a downside. Although on e closer, and what brings Israel closer to Saudi Arabia? might have expected them to pursue this in clandestine One factor that ha s brought Israel closer to Bahrain manner under the JCPOA because of its defective and the Emirates is the concern about the Iranian threat. A provisions for monitoring the Iranian nuclear program. decision by the Biden administration to somehow rejoin You didn’t have any intelligence showing they were JCPOA, to somehow trust the Iranians, look away from doing it during the JCPOA? their production of missiles and their sowing of terr or, it Well, I can’t spea k of any intelligence we might have seems to me, the implication of that is to bring Israel and had. the Gulf Arab countries even closer. It will confirm their From a policy standpoint did you actually have any sense that they have increasing responsibility for their own expectations for a dictatorship such as Iran to change security. course? At State, you moved to change the legal status of Look, there’s a cost to every policy. If you pursue a settlemen ts and lower the chance for Palestinian more conciliatory path, there’s a chance that t he countries statehood. Was the goal of the policy to take the two - state that you’re dealing with will interpret that as a sign of solution off the table for a future administration? weakness and take advantage of your efforts at It’s really important to emphasize that the White conciliation. If you pursue a tougher path, it’s a possibility House peace plan involves a proposal for a two - state that the countries will thereby be emboldened or feel s olution, indeed, a two - state solution in which the pushed into a corner and lash back or redouble their Palestinians would retain control over approximately 70% efforts, the efforts you were trying to prevent. It’s never of the West Bank. There are also land swaps. enough to focus only on the benefits of the policy you We have to be very careful about the policy that the favor, or only on the costs of the policy that you oppose. State Department and therefore the Trump administr ation You have got to see the cost and benefits of both and then adopted concerning the settlements. It is often misstated, make the best decision of both. but Secretary Pompeo was very careful in his language. He What do you think is going to happen with the new did not say that settlement activity is consistent with administration coming in and incoming Secretary of State international law as often cited. He said “settlements in the Anthony Blinken? West Bank beyon d the Green Line are not per se It seems to me that now Secretary of State Blinken not inconsistent with international law.” What is the difference only must process the new intelligen ce on Iran, but he in those two formulations? It’s huge. One says that must incorporate into his understanding the events of the automatically everything that Israel builds is automatically last four years. He was a supporter of the JCPOA. He consistent with international law. The other formu lation, presumably opposed the decision of the Trump which was secretary Pompeo’s, says that whatever Israel administration to exit the agreement. But he’s not builds is not on its face illegal. It’s a matter of dispute and inheriting the world he left [ as Biden’s national security each case has to be examined on its own merits. adviser] in 2016. As a person who loves Israel, a frequent visitor here, ‘A decision by the Biden administration to somehow sometimes 2 - 3 times a yea r, are you concerned by our rejoin JCPOA will bring Israel and the Gulf Arab countries political instability and the fact that we have not had a state even closer’ budget for two years? Presumably, the Biden administration will pursue a Yes, it’s very disturbing. It’s very urgent, I think that new agreement with Iran. What can t hat look like given the both of us, the United States and Israel, get our houses new circumstances? Seems to me these are the two better in order. I think, a ctually — it’s interesting, we face features of the new circumstances that Secretary of State parallel problems. In the United States, a large part of the Blinken will undoubtedly take into account. One is the right hates the left, and a large part of the left hates the progress Iran has made in pursuing a nuclear weapon and right. They think that the other side is un - American and is two, the new r ealities presented by the normalization of destroying the country. Something simi lar could be said of relations between Israel and the Bahrain, United Arab Israel, though I understand that right and left in Israel has Emirates, Sudan, Morocco, and the potential there is for gotten jumbled up over the last couple of years. No liberal Israel to normalize relations with other Gulf countries. democracy can prosper when big segments of the society You know, it seems to me that the normalizati on of on either side of the political aisle scorn the other side . relations does impose some constraints. This is, I believe, a Visit suburbanorthodox.org for the current issue .

Hizballah Renews Its Cyberwarfare By Annie Fixler nationalinterest.org February 4, 2021 Iran’s digital subcontractor is a growing threat . Security. After years of apparent inactivity, the group’s Hezbolla h’s cyber operatives are back in the game, reappearance is part of a larger trend in which non - state according to a new report by Israeli firm ClearSky Cyber Page 7 February 13, 2021 Focus on Israel actors increasingly acquire sophisticate d cyber tools that “strong intent” but “thankfully, low capabilit y. But the exploit insufficient investments in cyber defense. concern is that they’ll buy that capability.” A joint 2019 ClearSky identified suspicious network activity in early U.S. government - private sector study of the “proliferation 2020 and discovered an updated version of custom - built and commodification of cyber offensive capabilities” remote access malware previously used only by an observed an “increasing ability to buy cyber tools on a Advanced Persistent Threa t (APT) group known as commercial basis.” In the case of terrorist groups like Lebanese Cedar or Volatile Cedar. Another Israeli Hezbollah, this is particularly concerning because they are cybersecurity firm, Check Point, uncovered the group in “often not susceptible to diplomatic or military suasion in 2012 and concluded that it originated in Lebanon. At the the same manner as nation - states.” time, other researchers linked the group to Hezbollah, The increased likelihood of the use of cyber tools is although Check Point itself did not make a positive enhanced by another dynamic — the increased effectiveness attribution. of the cyber tools available to terrorist groups like Yaniv Balmas, the head of cyber research at Check Hezbollah and other non - state actors. In this latest global Point, said that the new report’s findings are consistent espionage campaign, Lebanese Cedar used not only with his company’s assessment of Lebanese Cedar. While custom, self - developed tools, but also a far g reater number Balmas reiterated that Check Point has not identified the of tools readily available to malicious actors on the organization within Lebanon responsible for this APT, he internet. The accessibility of sophisticated open - source and noted that the victim profile “could match the motives of dark web tools is increasing the capability of non - state Hezbollah.” cyber actors exponentially. ClearSky noted that Lebanese Cedar also used a piece The ClearSky report points to the second p art of this of malware built by Iranian hackers responsible for the dynamic: the increasing interconnectivity of networks. The 2011 – 13 distributed denial of service attacks against the cybersecurity firm identified 250 compromised servers U.S. financial system. ClearSky caveated the finding by including hosting servers and other information noting that its researchers are “unable to determine the technology and managed service providers in the United nature of the relationship” between Lebanese Cedar and States and the United Kingdo m which the hackers the Iranian hackers. However, Clear Sky said, the existence leveraged to hit targeted countries in the Middle East. The of Iranian code “may point to a connection” with the interconnectivity of networks is providing an exponentially regime in Iran. greater attack surface for malicious actors. In the non - cyber domain, Hezbollah has relied on the Following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, faced with an Islamic Republic to develop its military capabilities. For adversary that d id not respond to traditional forms of example, Iran has transferred components for deterrence, the United States developed new financial tools manufa cturing precision - guided missiles and has helped to punish states that host terrorist groups and individuals Hezbollah set up conversion and assembly facilities in or groups that could be persuaded not to finance a Lebanon, with the goal of establishing domestic terrorist group’s activities in the first plac e. production capability. Iran has also provided Hezbollah The cyber domain is again forcing the United States with drone technology. and its allies to reevaluate assumptions about deterrence. A similar dynamic is happ ening with technology and But instead of rethinking the credibility of deterrence, the cyber capabilities. Iran built Hezbollah’s secure United States should focus on deterrence by denial. By telecommunications network and supplies the funding and investing in cyber defense , the government and private technical know - how for Hezbollah’s robust cyber warfare sector can collaborate to reduce vulnerabilities and thus training program. Former Israeli national security advisor deny all cyber adversaries the ability to achieve their Yaakov Am idror went so far as to call Hezbollah Iran’s objectives. “This form of denial is especially important for cyber “sub - contractor.” deterring non - state actors, such as extremists and While Hezbollah’s cyber operatives receive backing c riminals,” observed the Cyberspace Solarium from the Islamic Republic, the broader challenge for cyber Commission. defenders is that “cyber capabilities, unlike nuclear A better defense will require not only investments in capabilities, can be b uilt or obtained without access to network security but also better threat information sharing national resources and power,” explained the with the private sector and with allies and partners. The congressionally mandated Cyberspace Solarium United States also needs nat ional critical infrastructure Commission in March 2020. resilience strategies to communicate to adversaries that “While it might be difficult to buy sophisticated kinetic their malicious cyber operations will fail. weapons on the black market,” the Commission ad ded, Annie Fixler is the deputy director of the Center on Cyber and “for both states and criminal groups it is easy to buy Technology Innovation (CCTI) at the Foundation for Defense of malware to support brazen cyberattacks.” Democracies (FDD). RADM (ret) Mark Montgomery is the senior More than five years ago, John Riggi, the FBI’s then - director of CCTI, an FDD senior fellow, and serves as a senior cyber section chief, warned that terrorist groups have advisor to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission.

Focus o n Israel February 13, 2021 Page 8

Hizballah’s Recent Attempt to Down an Israeli Drone Could Easily Have Sparked a Wa r n By Alex Fishman ynetnews.com February 07, 2021 The powder keg on the northern border. . But this only works until someone decides to cross the If the missile fired last Wednesday by Hezbollah at an line. advanced IDF drone in the skies over southern Lebanon The Israeli Air Force flew over Lebanon as part of had indeed hit it and brought it down, would the po litical preparations for a violent, unpredicted eruption from a echelon in Israel have instructed the military to attack country that does not have an effective central Lebanon in response? government. The probable answer is yes, for this was unlike the This requires Israel to have maximum intelligence lower tech drone that crashed along the Lebanon border control, including a presence in the air. But Hezbollah sees on Monday and which Hezbollah claimed to have brought itself as the defender of Lebanon, and as suc h Israeli down. overflights are a violation of national sovereignty. Las t Wednesday, the Israeli Air Force would have In truth, neither side abides by the agreement reached struck the anti - aircraft battery responsible or similar at the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War as part of Hezbollah targets, and the northern border could have United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. erupted into heavy exchanges of fire. The situation could explode as soo n as one of the Worse still, Hezbollah knew that if it succeeded in parties decides it is not playing the game anymore. And it felling the drone, Jerusalem would definitely respond, and almost happened last week. intended to remind Israel that the "quiet border" in the In the 24 hours leading up to the missile fire on the north is the most explosive and easiest to ignite. IDF drone, the Lebanese media reported an unusually Qatar has delivered Israel an industrial peace on the large number of Israeli fighter jets and UAVs. Gaza border. The country has increased the aid it has The flights were reported in the southern suburbs of committed to provide to the Hamas government from the capital controlled by Hezbollah and over Ras al - Ain $240 million in 2020 to $360 million in 2021. and Tyre, close to the Israeli border. As such, there is a form of control along the southern It is possible that these flights were a response to border. But the Lebanon near miss is a reminder that Israel Hezbollah's unusual activity - but while this was all is sitting on a mountain of explo sives to the north. happening, the missile was launched It is fair to assume that neither Israel nor Hezbollah A missile was also fired at IDF drone last November, has any real interest in igniting the frontier. but this time Israel confirmed the Lebanese reports of the The two sides apparently have a mutual deterrence: shooting, as it took place in broad daylight and was Hezbollah acts against Israel in a restrained and measured recorded. manner and Israel makes a supreme effort not to harm And thus on one clear day, without warning an d on Hezbollah members and does not openly attack the the eve of an election and all that that implies, Israel might organization's military capabilities in Lebanon. easily have found itself - just as it did in 2006 - in the throes of an armed conflict in the north.

Gifts to Iran Won’t Improve the Dire Situation in Yemen By John Bolton nydailynew s.com February 8, 2021 Washington’s misguided appeasement of the Moreover, perhaps unwittingly, Biden’s ambiguous Houthis. phrasing call s into question the separate U.S. campaign Yemen’s long, bloody “civil war” — which has against Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, which essentially become a proxy war between Iran and Gulf threatens both Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Arabs — is correctly seen as a humanitarian tragedy. Too On Friday night, Secretary of State Antony Blinken many, however, includin g President Biden, mistakenly announced plans to revoke the Trump administration’s think that solving the tragedy requires blaming the wrong designation of the Ho uthi rebels, the principal target of side, effectively exonerating the real culprits and their Saudi and UAE military action, as a foreign terrorist surrogates. organization. The Houthi, a Shia opposition sect, have Biden said last week in his first presidential foreign - long received considerable Iranian financial and military policy address that “we are ending all Amer ican support support, including in recent times cruise missiles a nd for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including drones. relevant arms sales.” This sounds significant, except that These weapons have been used against civilian targets direct U.S. involvement ended with the 2018 suspension of in Saudi and the UAE, including airports and oil in - flight refueling of Saudi air operations in Yemen. infrastructure. Along with weapons supplied by Iran to Biden had alread y “paused” several pending weapons Shia militia groups in Iraq, they constitute real threats to sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the oil - producing Gulf mon archies. although these arms were always intended for general In effect, Iran is trying to encircle its Arab enemies, military purposes, not specifically for use in Yemen. chief among them Saudi Arabia, by installing a friendly Page 9 February 13, 2021 Focus on Israel regime in their backyard. Among the Arabian Peninsula not contribute to peace, but will instead inspire the latter states, Yemen is the poorest and most notably the only to further sti ffen their position. Biden is following one without oil. Armed con flict and political hostility are Obama’s utterly erroneous notion that appeasing Iran will the rule, not the exception, there: long - term, multilayered induce it to engage in more civilized behavior on nuclear and ever - changing. Ancient strife led to repeated civil wars and other issues, and that Yemen’s Arab neighbors are the under British colonial rule and after 1967 when two real threats to regional peace and securit y. independent states superseded the colony. Periodi c In fact, Tehran and its allies will be delighted that the conflicts between (and within) the two Yemens followed Biden administration’s giveaways have begun, and you can until, remarkably, reunification came in 1990. anticipate the mullahs to ramp up their bloody and It didn’t last long. Despite some short - lived stability, a destabilizing mischief throughout the region and the Shia rebellion broke out in 2004. That revolt, after multiple world. permutations, is the primary co nflict in Yemen today. The White House justifies i ts policy by citing It is important to understand just what is going on humanitarian concerns, ignoring that Iran and the Houthis, here. Biden is not reversing President Trump’s strategy on far better at ideological propaganda than their opponents, Yemen, because Trump had none. He only branded the are cynically manipulating Yemeni civilians and foreign aid Houthis on his way out, Jan. 19, all but inviting Biden’s workers for their own strategic purposes. Listing the new team to u pend the designation. Internal disputes and Hout hi as terrorists, for example, was not an obstacle to Trump’s own apathy thwarted action until his term was the distribution of food or medical assistance, or to almost over. peacefully resolving the conflict. The obstacle is that the Rather, Biden is making unforced concessions to Iran, Houthis are terrorists, seeking, with Iran, tactical advantage laying the basis for resurrecting President Obama’s failed over their local enemies while reducing the external 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. T he symbolic rhetorical support they can call upon. gesture of “ending” U.S. support for Saudi war efforts is At a bare minimum, U.S. pressure to bring peace and really a slap at Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, save civilian lives should be applied in an even - handed, not since 2015, Riyadh’s most forceful advocate for decisive one - sided, manner. Doing that, however, might offend the action in Yemen. terribly sensitive mullahs Bid en is assiduously courting. Despite Biden’s implicit effort to characterize th is as a Iran has Biden right where it wants him. The losers are brutal Saudi assault on an impoverished country, the the Yemeni people. And, ultimately, the United States. central problem is Iran and its proxy, the Houthis. Biden’s Mr. Bolton served as national security adviser in 2018 - 19, and is decision to inhibit the Saudis and placate the Houthis will the author of “The Room Where It Happened.”

The I CC aids and abets terrorism By Yoav Limor israelhayom.com February 8, 2021 Even if no investigation is opened, the IDF will have become the subject of a probe. The list includes some of difficulty operating against terrorists who use civilians the top government echelon (heads of states and ministers as human shields when the threat of the ICC is are not immune from ICC trial), as well as top officials in hanging over its head. th e defense establishment and many IDF commanders, Starting Friday evening, Israel's diplomatic - security - including senior and mid - level officers who fought in legal systems have been on high alert because of the Operation Protective Edge in 2014; as well as events near International Criminal Court's decision that it has the the Gaza border fence in 2018. The list has not been made jurisdiction to investigation Israel for alleged "war crimes." public out of concern that the indivi duals could become The court's ruling throw s the hot potato decision potential suspects in an investigation. However, it is likely about whether or not to launch an investigation against that all senior officials will be briefed on what to do going Israel into the lap of ICC Chief Prosecutor Fatou forward. Past experience teaches us that they will be asked Bensouda. Next month, Bensouda's successor will be to inform the government ahead of time about every elected (the change of guard is slated for this summer), and pl anned trip abroad to avoid situations in which they are it's still u nclear whether or not Bensouda will make a detained outside of Israel. decision by then, and if so, what. She can decide to launch While Israel expects that any decision about an an investigation or to shelve the idea. Israel, obviously, will investigation, should one be launched, will be announced, exert heavy pressure to have the case closed, but high - the chief prosecutor has the authority to open a secret ranking officials have expressed r egret about whether that probe. In such a situation, Israel would find it difficult to will happen without what they call "heavy guns" from the defend officials who might find themselves under US and other western nations. investigation, and will need help from any countries where Israel has been preparing for a few months for the these officials might be. All ICC member nations are possibility that an investigation of this kind might be required to respect the court's rules, and therefore arrest launched, and its possible ramificati ons. As a first step, a anyone whom the ICC wants to investigate and hand them list was prepared of a few hundred officials who might over to investigators, but Israel is hoping that in an Focus o n Israel Feb ruary 13, 2021 Page 10

"extreme scenario," as one high - ranking official put it, fronts – Gaza, Judea and Samaria, Lebanon, and Syria – "that can be avoided." One way of ensuring that would be Israel will find it difficult to operate with a constant threat to receive arre st warrants ahead of time and prevent those of international criminal probes hanging over its head. named therein from traveling abroad. This, more than anything else, is the problem with the The same official added that in consultations the ICC's decision – not only is it legally wrong ("Palestine" is Justice Ministry, Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry, and not a state , and certainly does not have clearly defined the IDF have held since the ICC's decision was made borders), it is also dangerous because it is detached from public on Frida y, a decision was taken to "keep the defense the security and defense reality with which Israel – and establishment out of the picture." This means that the other countries, like the US and Britain (which has already decision will be fought on the diplomatic and legal fronts, found itself under similar investi gation) – grapple. while a "defensive canopy" will be set up to cover all The IDF has made mistakes, certainly in war. But it defense officials involved in the actions in question. investigates them appropriately and also metes out Defense Minister Benny Gantz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. punishments and learns lessons, and above the IDF there Gen. Aviv Kochavi put out a condemnation of the is an independent legal system that does not hesitate to decision that included unwavering support for and a intervene when necess ary. On the other than, there are promise to defense IDF commanders and soldiers terrorist organizations that exploit the civilian population involved in said actions. as human shields and operate among them against Israel's But even if t here is no investigation in the end, the civilian population. From that perspective, the ICC's ruling should still worry Israel, because it takes another decision is not only anti - Israel, it is against an yone who bite out of its legitimacy. When there is always the takes part in the global battle against terrorism. possibility of escalation on each of the country's four

Prominent Hezbollah Critic Killed in Lebanon By Reuters and Algemeiner Staff algemeiner.com February 4, 2021 A prominent Lebanese Shi’ite publisher who At Sli m’s family home in Beirut’s southern suburbs, criticized the armed Hezbollah movement was shot where Hezbollah holds sway, family members sat in shock. dead in a car in southern Lebanon on Thursday, the Some wept in silence. A relative said they found out about first such killing of a high - profile activist in years. his death from a news alert while at a police station. A judge following the case said the body of Lokman “What a big loss. And they lost a noble enemy too… Slim had four bullets in the head and one in the back. A It’s rare for someone to argue with them and live among security source said his phone was found on the side of a them with respect,” his sister Rasha told reporters, without road. naming Hezbollah. They said the motive remained unclear. She said he had not mentioned any threats. “Killing is Slim, who was in his late 50s, ran a research center, the only language they are fluent in,” she added. “I d on’t made documentaries with his wife, and led efforts to build know how we will go on with our work… It will be hard.” an archive on Lebanon‘s 1975 - 1990 sectarian civil war. ‘A BIG LOSS’ He spoke against what he described as the Iranian - In an interview last month on Saudi’s al - Hadath TV, backed, Shi’ite Muslim Hezbollah‘s intimidation tactics and Slim said he believed Damascus and its ally Hezbollah had attempts to monopolize Lebanese politics. a role in the port blast that ripped through Beirut in His sister suggested Slim was murdered because of August, killing 2 00 people and injuring thousands. this. He was last seen after visiting a poet friend. His wife Hezbollah has denied any links to the explosion. said he went missing overnight and did not answer his President Michel Aoun, a political ally of Hezbollah, phone. said he had ordered an investigation into the crime. Hezbollah did not respond to a request for comment Slim’s criticism of Hezbollah faced rebuke from its on his death, which the French ambassador and Lebanese supporters, wh o called him “an embassy Shi’ite,” accusing officials, including the president, called “an assassination.” him of being a tool of the United States. Amnesty International, a top UN di plomat in Lebanon Washington, which classifies Hezbollah as terrorists, and the EU ambassador to the country, Ralph Tarraf, all has ramped up sanctions against it to pressure Tehran. demanded an investigation. “We deplore the prevailing Slim founded a nonprofit to promote civil liberties culture of impunity,” Tarraf wrote in a tweet. which rec eived a grant under the US Middle East A Lebanese press freedom center, SKeyes, said it Partnership Initiative and worked with an American think feared a cover - up of the crime a nd more attempts to tank, leaked WikiLeaks diplomatic cables said in 2008. eliminate “symbols of free political thought.” In late 2019, Slim said people had gathered in his The center was founded after a car bomb killed garden, chanting slurs and threats. His statement held journalist Samir Kassir in 2005, at a time when a series of Hezbollah‘s leader responsible. assassinations hit Lebanon targeting critics of Syria’s 15 - At the time, Slim also said he had received death year domination. threats after speaking in a debate at a Beirut camp that Page 11 February 13, 2021 Focus on Israel activists set up when protests against all the country’s culture,” said Hazem Saghieh, a well - known Lebanese political leaders swept Lebanon. journalist. “He was one of a few who only knew how to “His murder is a very big loss for Lebanon, for speak his mind.”

The Challenges to the Israeli Economy in the Wake of the Coronavirus By Shlomo Even inss.org.il January 14, 2021 Despite vaccination, recovery won’t be easy. indeed currently underway, GDP will grow by 6.3 percent Israel is currently battling the coronavirus in two ways: in 2021 and 5.8 percent in 2022; whereas in the scenario of vaccinating the population and managing a third a slow vac cination, GDP will grow by 3.5 percent in 2021 lockdown, whose direct cost to the economy is estimated and by 6 percent in 2022. According to the Ministry of by the Bank of Israel to be NIS 3 - 3.5 billion per week. The Finance's forecast from January 17, 2021, in the primary vaccine process, which has been rapid so far, raises hopes scenario, GDP will grow by 4.6 percent in 2021. The for the eradication of the pandemic over the next few alternative, less likely scenario of the Trea sury forecast months. (continued morbidity for most of 2021) is that growth in However, it seems that the state's preparations for 2021 will stand at only 1.9 percent. accelerating economic recovery are quite limited, and even Unemployment is one of the main parameters that at the outset of 2021, Israel does not have an approved reflect the relationship between the economic situation and budget and an overall economic plan. While Knesset the well - being of the population. In 201 9, the number of elections are scheduled for March 2021, it is unclear employed persons was 3.967 million and the whether long - term political stability, essential for the unemployment rate was 3.8 percent, a goal that Israel efficient management of the economy, wil l be achieved. should strive to reach within a period of two to three The 2021 budget, in the amount of NIS 419 billion, is years. At the peak of the first lockdown, the broad a continuation budget (with additions) to the 2020 budget. unemployment rate (including leave without pay) was 34.4 The budget is subject to the rules of the continuation percent, and at the peak of the second lockdown was 23.5 budget and is not based on an overall vision and planning percent. In the first half of December 2020, the broad by all governme nt ministries. According to a report by the unemployment rate was estimated by the CBS at 12.7 Knesset's Finance Committee (December 28, 2020), the percent, with about 520,000 people (including the budget available for 2021 as part of the "economic plan to unemployed, the sick, and those not in the labor force deal with the coronavirus crisis" stands at NIS 72.7 billion after being fired or closing their businesses since March (a 53.2 increase for 2021 and surplus o f 20.4 from 2020). 2020). Now, with the third closure, there has been an The chairman of the Finance Committee, MK Moshe increase in widespread unemployment. The most serious Gafni, said in the summary of the committee's debate: damage in this crisis is to employment in the tourism, "The country is in an unprecedented difficult situation t rade, and leisure and entertainment industries and in small economically: a situation in which people are losing their businesses, which suffer particularly due to lockdowns. jobs and are hungry for bread, while we are headed to During 2020, more than 70,000 small businesses were further elections without a [regular] budget – as if we were closed. Action must now be taken not to close good a third world country." businesses just before the recovery p hase. Despite the severity of the instability of the political Unemployment will remain high even after the system, the most important factor in emerging from the pandemic subsides. According to the Bank of Israel's crisis is the vaccination of the population. In addition, the forecast, in a scenario of rapid vaccination, the broad public sector employs professionals, and the private sector unemployment rate will stand at 7.7 percent in the last has its own strong forces. Assuming that the pandemic in quarter of 2021. Israel subsides, a recovery is expected, which should be The expected problems i n the labor market do not reflected in at least two main criteria measu red by the concern only the coronavirus crisis. In the rapidly growing Central Bureau of Statistics: GDP growth and ultra - Orthodox sector, a profound change is needed in the unemployment rate in the labor force. willingness of men to acquire education relevant to According to an estimate by the Bank of Israel from employment in industries where wages are higher than January 4, 2021, Israel’s GDP shrank by 3.7 percent in average and to participate in the labor force. According to 2020 compared to GDP in 2019. According to an estimate the State Comptroller's report from May 2020, 84 percent by the Ministry of Finance from January 17, 2021,, GDP of the ultra - Orthodox boys, high school students, chose shrank by 3.3 percent in 2020. These estimates are lower "small yeshivas" and did not study core subjects such as than previous estimates presented by these bodies (the mathematics, English, or science. According to the report, forecast presented by the Bank of Israel in October 2020 "among the ultra - Orthodox students, deep gaps in was for a drop of GDP in 2020 by 5 to 6.5 percent). knowledge are created that will make it difficult for them, According to the Bank of Israel's forecast from and will affect the productivity of the economy as a January 4, 2021, in a scenario of rapid vaccination, which is whole." Alongside this, the Arab sector is characterized by Focus o n Israel Feb ruary 13, 2021 Page 12 low labo r productivity and low participation rates of Institute will award a “ret urn to work grant" to encourage women in the labor force. a return to work by February 28, 2021, in case the new Despite the difficulty of the current political situation, wage is lower than their previous wage. the intensity of the crisis and the need to emerge from it as Supporting small businesses in the financial field and quickly as possible require a comprehensive national improving their capabilities in the digital field: In this economic p lan of the government in collaboration with context, on Dec ember 28, 2020, Facebook Israel CEO Adi the business sector and local authorities, managed and Soffer Teeni said that there are about 540,000 small implemented by a national operational headquarters. The businesses in Israel that employ about 60 percent of the program should include a variety of efforts, such as: business sector, contributing 55 percent of the business Increasing employment: Efforts in this area exi st, but sector's product, but only 14 percent show digita l activity. they must be expanded, strengthened, and ensured they are The coronavirus crisis has illustrated the importance of the implemented effectively. For example, the Ministry of digital medium and accelerated its growth. Through this Labor and Welfare intends to provide vocational training medium, businesses all over the country can grow and in 2021 to about 30,000 workers, three times more than in expand after the crisis. The government and authorities previous years. In ad dition, the ministry established an must provide digit al infrastructure throughout the country. Employers' Administration in cooperation with the Reducing bureaucracy, directing businesses, and business sector and the socio - economic forum and the accelerating business processes. Histadrut (national trade union). The administration will In conclusion, economic - social recovery depends first collect information on the needs of the economy for of all on the decline of the coronavirus. Given rapid employe es, adapt professional training to the expected vaccination, forecasts in dicate GDP growth in 2021 at a trends in the economy, and integrate employers in the rate of 4.5 - 6.3 percent. This is of course presumes there training. During the crisis, the advantage of the technology will be no exceptional events, such as the spread of a sector was evident, as it was less affected, and some mutation that is immune to the vaccine. Israel will also be companies even grew as the demand for d igital technology affected by growth in the world economy. In the proc ess increased. Growth in this sector is expected to continue of emerging from the crisis, reducing unemployment must even after the crisis. Therefore, the first priority is to train be given first priority because it has broad social employees for work in the technology sector and in other implications. A concentrated effort must be made to reach companies that require their employees to have high digital a broad unemployment rate of less than 7 percent before literacy. the end of 2021. In doing so, opportunities must be seized Reducing the current model, which guarantees the to work for the long - term development of the labor payment of unemployment benefits until June 2021: In market, with the aim of raising the employment rate and December 2020, Finance Minister Yisrael Katz decided to labor productivity, especially in the ultra - Orthodox and work to extend the period of payment while on leave Arab sectors (which together make up about 32 percent of beyond June 2021, as long as the br oad unemployment the po pulation), and in the periphery. This effort, rate does not fall below 7.5 percent. However, the model necessary for stable long - term growth, requires cultural does not encourage some people to return to work, so and budgetary changes, and many years. other models that reward returning to work should be Mr. Even, who earned his Sc.D. at the Technion and the University implemented. For example, the National Insurance of Haifa, is an economist and a senior research fellow at INSS.

“If Only Israel Syndrome” By David Harris blogs.timesofisrael.com February 9, 2021 “If Only Israel (IOI) syndrome,” a term I began Thus, if only Israel stopped any settlement building. If using several years ago, is the misguided notion, only Israel understood that Gaza’s tunnel - diggers and peddled in the name of Israel’s “best interests” by rocket - builders don’ t really mean it when calling for the some in the diplomatic, academic, and media worlds, Jewish state’s extinction. If only Israel restrained itself that if only Israel did this or that, peace with the rather than responding to terrorist attacks against Israeli Palestinians would be at hand. targets. If only Israel stopped assuming the worst about Poor Israel. If only it had the visual acuity of these Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. If only Israe l went the extra “enlightened” souls, everything would be hunky - dory. mile with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud After all, according to them, Israel holds all the cards, yet Abbas. If only Israel got beyond its Holocaust trauma. If refuses to play them. only Israel… The thinking goes: Why can’t those shortsighted The point is, for the IOI crowd, it always seems to Israelis figure out what needs to be done — it’s so obvious boil down to Israel. to us in Brussels, Paris, Dublin, and Stockholm, in our And the syndrome has only been strengthened b y its ivory towers from C ambridge to Berkeley, and as adherents’ assessment of the current Israeli government, of commentators on BBC and CNN — so the conflict can at course. long last be brought to a screeching halt? Many media outlets, from the Associated Press to CBS Page 13 February 13, 2021 Focus on Israel

News to Der Spiegel, branded Prime Minister Benjamin destruction, while enhancing its own military capability, Netanyahu as “hardline,” or some variation thereof, from entrenching itself in Syria, and supporting Hamas. the get - go. Their w ord choice simply reinforces the notion So, before Israel gets further lectures on what needs to that the conflict is all about alleged Israeli intransigence, be done, perhaps we should take stock of what’s transpired while avoiding any descriptive judgment of a seemingly — and why. unassailable Abbas, other, perhaps, than “aging.” There have b een several bold Israeli efforts since 2000 It’s important to underscore a few basic points t oo to create a breakthrough — and repeated failures. And that often lost in the din. doesn’t include Netanyahu’s unprecedented ten - month First, the current Israeli government follows on the settlement freeze, at the urging of the Obama heels of previous governments that sought to achieve administration, and the Palestinian Authority’s refusal to peace based on a two - state settlement with the Palestinians seize this opportunity to break the stalemate. — and failed. Each of those governments went far in The vast majority of Israelis yearn for peace and attempting t o strike a deal, but, ultimately, to no avail. understand the price the country will have to pay in Prime Minister Ehud Barak, joined by President Bill territory and, presumably, displaced population. Poll after Clinton, tried mightily to reach a pathbreaking agreement poll proves their readiness, but only if t hey are assured that with PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat. As confirmed by lasting peace, not new phases in the conflict, will be the Clinton in his autobiography My Life, the answer w as, in outcome. Tellingly, few see that possibility on the horizon effect, a thunderous rejection, including denying any anytime soon, though when an opportunity came from the historical Jewish connection with Jerusalem, accompanied United Arab Emirates, linked to Israel dropping any plans by the launching against Israel of a deadly wave of terror for annexation in parts of the West Bank, Israel quickly attacks, which came to be known as the second intifada. chose the UAE deal. And, not to be forgotte n, a unilateral Israeli Israelis don’t have to be pushed, prodded, nudged, withdrawal from southern Lebanon also took place during cajoled, or pressured to seek a comprehensive peace the Barak era. It was met by the entrenchment of beyond the current treaties with Egypt and Jordan, and Hezbollah, committed to Israel’s destruction, in the now, notably, normalizat ion agreements with the UAE, vacated space. Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. More than any other nation, Then, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who had also they have lived with the absence of true, lasting peace for earned the media’s label of “hardline,” defied his own nearly 73 years, and know full well the physical, Likud Party — indeed, he left it to create a new political psychological, and economic toll it has inflicted on the bloc — and uprooted thousands of settlers to leave Gaza cou ntry. entirely. It was the first chance ever for Gaza’s Arab Rather, they must be convinced the tangible rewards residents to govern themselves. Neither th e occupying justify the risks for a small state in a tough area. Those Egyptians or Ottoman Turks had ever done this for Gaza. rewards begin with acceptance of Israel’s rightful place in Had Gazans seized the opportunity in a constructive the region as a Jewish - majority state living in secure and manner, they might have created unstoppable momentum internationally reco gnized borders. And that, more than for the second phase of significant Israeli withdrawal from settlements, checkpoints, or any of the other items on the the West Bank. Instead, Gaza quickly turned into a IOI bill of particulars, gets to the essence of the conflict. terrorist redoubt, realizing Israelis’ (and Egyptians’) worst The 2005 Gaza disengagement, not to mention the fears. earlier withdrawal from the vast Sinai Peninsula, Then, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, urged on by d emonstrated that settlements (and checkpoints) can be Washington, pressed hard for a deal with the Palestinians removed if needed. on the West Bank. According to the late Palestinian But until the Palestinian side recognizes Israel’s neg otiator Saeb Erekat, the Israeli offer “talked about legitimacy, and stops viewing the Jewish state as an Jerusalem and almost 100 percent of the West Bank.” Not “interloper” that can be defeated militarily or swamped by only was it not accepted, but no counter - proposal from the “refugees” — who are in most cases third - and fourth - Palestinian side was ever forthcoming. generation descendants of the original refugees from a war Prime Minister Netanyahu inherited a situation in started in 1948 by the Arab world — then whatever the which: (a) Hamas holds the reins of power in Gaza since IOI folks call for will be a secondary issue in the real 2007, spends precious funds on digging tunnels and world. amassing missiles to attack Israel, and teaches children to Until this recognition is reflected in Palesti nian aspire to “martyrdom”; (b) Hezbollah continues to gain textbooks, where children have been taught for strength in Lebanon, thanks to Ir anian largesse, and has an generations that Israelis are modern - day “Crusaders” to be estimated 100,000+ missiles and rockets in its arsenal, driven out, the hope for a brighter future, alas, is dim. which its leaders claim can reach any point in Israel; (c) the Until the Palestinian Authority succeeds in building a Palestinian Authority has been AWOL for years from the serious and accountable governin g structure, including negotiating table; and (d) Iran continues to call for I srael’s enhanced capacity (and will) to combat extremism and Focus o n Israel Feb ruary 13, 2021 Page 14 incitement, Israel will have no choice but to operate in the Israel, a country 1.3 percent the size of Iran, 11 percent the West Bank to prevent attacks against its civilian size of neighboring Syria, and, in American terms, the size population. of New Jersey. And until the forces seeking Israel’s annihilation — Israel doesn’t need still more lectures on the from Iran’s current regime to Hamas to Hezbollah — can importance of peace. Rather, it needs genuine partners, be contained, there will be a long shadow cast over the star ting in Ramallah. Without them, peace remains elusive. road to peace. Some would argue this view gives the With them, it becomes inevitable. spoilers too much power over the process. Rather, it Mr. Harris is the CEO of the American Jewish Committee. simply acknowledges the inescapable realitie s faced by

In His Lifetime in Public Service, George Shultz Strove for Freedom and Achieved Victory By Elliott Abrams commentarymagazine.com February 07, 2021 The Episcopalian diplomat who hosted a seder. let you know that my dear, wonderful George, United George P. Shultz’s life gave meaning to the phrase States Marine, passed on yesterday evening at our Stanford “the greatest generation.” Upon graduation from home.” Princeton in 1942, he enlisted in the Marines and stormed Shultz’s reputa tion for character and integrity was the beache s of Palau. A successful academic career led him well - deserved. Consider 1974, when Richard Nixon from a professorship at MIT to becoming dean of the developed his “enemies list” and insisted that the IRS go Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago. after the people on it. John Dean gave this list of 200 He served successfully as president of Bechtel, the global names to the IRS commissioner, who thought about it for engineering firm. He held four cabine t - level positions in a few days and then went to see his boss: Treasury the U.S. government: Secretary of Labor, Director of the Secretary George P. Shultz. Shultz told him to lock the list Office of Management and Budget, Secretary of the in his safe and do nothing — despite the risk to Shultz’s Treasury, and finally Secretary of State for Ronald Reagan. own job. In one of the infamous White House tapes, And all that was after serving on the Council of Economic Nixon calls Shultz a “candy ass” for refusing these orders, Advisers under Dwight D. Eisenhower. Henry Kissinger but Shultz would never be pushed around. When Reagan expressed the kind of confidence Shultz engendered: “If I administration leaks led CIA Director William Casey to could choose one American to whom I would entrust the suggest that everyone at State, including Shultz, take a lie nation’s fate in a crisis, it would be George Shultz.” detector test, Shultz answered immediately: “The minute in What was the magic that enabled Shultz to ho ld four this government I am told that I’m not trusted is the day cabinet posts successfully and to advise three presidents? that I leave.” It’s obvious that he was a man of great intelligence who Shultz ran the State Department by relying on both knew how to manage both the individuals who worked career diplomats and political appointees. As a matter of directly with or for him and very large organizations. But principle, he favored political appointees for the top there was more — much m ore. He infused each of those positions because they w ould better understand the positions with the very old - fashioned virtue of good president’s views and greater sympathy for his politics than character and had the desire and the ability to see far the Foreign Service. And Shultz made it a point to go beyond the problems of the day. He was a visionary whose beyond reacting to events by carving out time to do what feet were very firmly planted on the ground, indeed on the he had done as a professor: think. “Stuff is happening al l g round of his old discipline, economics. the time and you are dealing with it,” he recounted after A few stories will give a sense of this extraordinary leaving office. “So I developed the idea that at least twice a man. Start with his landing in Palau in 1944, as he week — in prime time, not the end of the day when you are recounted it during a sentimental visit there as secretary of tired — I take, say, three - quarters of an hour or so and tell state in 1986. There was confusion on the beach as men my secretary: If my wife calls or the president calls, put and materiel landed, so Shultz appointed himself beach them through; otherwise, no calls. I tell myself not to look master: “There was a gigantic amount of stuff unloaded on at my inbox; instead, I go sit in a comfortable chair with a the beach and while there was a plan for exactly what pad and a pencil, take a deep breath, and ask myself: ‘What should go and where it should go and so on, as the battle am I doing here? What are our st rategic objectives, and erupted, it just came i n and piled up and it was just sitting how are we doing?’ Reflecting on that has helped me quite there. So I just took charge of it and started dispatching it, a lot, I think.” and so that was basically the Angaur landing.” I met Shultz in 1982 when he became Ronald Reagan’s Professor Shultz and Secretary Shultz were among the second secretary of state after the resignation of Alexander many proud titles Shultz bore during his long life, bu t it is Haig. I was serving then as assistant secret ary of state for not an accident that his wife Charlotte’s note announcing human rights, a new position that was weak his death on February 6 began this way: “I’m saddened to bureaucratically in the Department and occupied shabby Page 15 February 13, 2021 Focus on Israel quarters in a corner of the building. Meeting Shultz and typical of him that he did not try to establish a graduate discussing my position, I mentioned the latter problem and school named after him (as opposed to the James A. Baker simply said, “Come and se e it — visit me.” He did, very Institute at Rice University). There is just one institution shortly thereafter, walking from his beautiful office down named after Sh ultz today, and it is the campus of the State to mine. He toured our suite, shook hands with my staff — Department’s Foreign Service Institute, where American and immediately ordered a refurbishment that put us on diplomats are trained: the George P. Shultz National the map. Far more important, he made it clear to the Foreign Affairs Training Center in Arlington, Virginia. powe rful regional bureaus that the human rights bureau Few people outside the State Department have h eard of it. was henceforth to have a role: we were to be consulted. But to Shultz, it was a worthy namesake. And once they knew that was the secretary’s view, we had He was the most consequential secretary of state since something new: bargaining power. Dean Acheson helped Truman design the global, U.S. - led Shultz did this because he genuinely cared about system that would succeed the Second World War. Shultz human righ ts and saw it as a central element in the was the bookend on that beginning: he helped Ronald American system and in our foreign policy. In the mid - Reagan design and execute an end to the Cold War. 1980s, during the fierce debates about U.S. policy in Critical here was Shultz’s constant understanding of his Central America, the question arose of why the tiny own role. Simply put, he was not the president. Shultz Nicaraguan Jewish community had fled after the Sandini sta explained in 2015, “People would ask me what my foreign victory — and after harassment that included a 1978 fire - policy was, and I always said, ‘I do not have one; the bombing of the Managua synagogue while Friday night president has one. My job is to help him formulate it and Shabbat services were underway. The U.S. embassy carry it out, but it is the president’s foreign policy.’ So I looked into it all and concluded there was no problem think you need to be clear about who is the guy who got here. I wrote a memo to Shultz saying tha t I had never elected.” That was not just hindsight from Shultz : I well understood how the State Department could in the 1930s recall a long discussion with him over a contentious have coldly turned away Jews seeking to flee from Hitler — European issue. One of the team members present until now. If throwing Molotov cocktails at a synagogue objected vociferously to a position Reagan planned to take during services was going to be dismissed as a complex and that we were discussing. Shultz heard him out in full, phenomenon, not obv ious anti - Semitism, anything was as he always did in our disc ussions. And then he replied, possible. His reaction: at our next senior staff meeting, he “You know, you may be right. You might be. All you need asked me to read my memo aloud. The Department’s top to do now is get yourself elected president. But since officers’ message was clear: this kind of thing would not Ronald Reagan got himself elected, we are going to do it happen on his watch. his way.” We saw how deeply Shultz felt about these issues Shultz was an excellent manager and a skilled during his April 1987 visit to Moscow for arms talks with ne gotiator, but these were tools of the trade rather than Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze. It was objectives. The objective was freedom. He had many Passover, but Shultz was an Episcopalian. No matter: he meetings over his years at State with Shevardnadze but did invited dozens of refuseniks to a seder at Spaso House, the not lecture his counterpart about Soviet conduct in these elegant res idence of the U.S. ambassador. He brought sessions. More typical was his e ffort to persuade kosher wine and food with him on his official plane and Shevardnadze that, as the world moved from the industrial greeted the guests wearing a white kippah. In his remarks to the information age, economies and military to the beleaguered dissidents, he said this: “We never stop, establishments would not be based on giant tank or we think about you, we pray for you, an d we are with you. bomber factories. They would be based on the flow of We never give up, we never stop trying. Never give up, information, and the Soviet s ystem was built around never give up.” Without making unduly invidious preventing exactly that. They could never win a distinctions, can one envision such an act of grace and competition with the United States while holding fast to solidarity by Shultz’s predecessors or successors from John the technologies of the 1930s and 1940s. That argument Foster Dulles to James Baker? was far more persuasive — but of course, Shultz combined That Passover story has a sequel. Months later, Shultz it with both risin g defense spending the Russians could not had a call from a guest at the Shultz seder whose name had match, and his persistent pressure on human rights issues. been on a list of refuseniks Shultz had given the Soviets. On the last page of his memoir, Turmoil and “This is Ida Nudel. I’m in Jerusalem,” she said. Later, Triumph, in which he shows his deep understanding and Shultz said th at call was one of the most moving moments appreciation for Ronald Reagan, Shultz writes this: in his six and half years as secretary of state. “Rona ld Reagan presented me with the Medal of Freedom These stories speak to Shultz’s character, as does the at his last official event, a farewell luncheon at the White very fact that he is not as celebrated as he should be. He House. I was proud to receive that honor from him, as we was not a leaker, not a manipulator, not concerned about had fought together for the idea of freedom throughout his own fame and glory or his reputation for power. It is his presidency. We knew that the p rice of freedom is Focus o n Israel Feb ruary 13, 2021 Page 16 eternal vigilance and a willingness to act in its defense. We work with Reagan to see when compromise was right? knew that on matters of principle we could not Who could advise him about negotiating with reluctant compromise.” Shultz understood what could be Europeans, hostile Soviets, and Democrats who thought compromised and what could not. Interviewed in Israel at the wh ole policy a dangerous road to war? Whom could he age 95, Shultz was asked about negotiating with Iran, and trust every day to counsel wisely and never to undermine, replied that everything — including missiles, terrorism, and never to place his own personal interests or reputation internal repression — needed to be covered, not just over that of the President? Reagan had the immense luck nuclear issues: “So you don’t just negotiate on the nuclear to find, and the great sense to choo se, a statesman with weapons. You negotiate the whole thing. People would not just the vision and character but also the bureaucratic say, they wouldn’t do it. Well, then we won’t negotiate.” and management skills to be his partner. But if there were no negotiations, he was then asked, The frontispiece in Shultz’s memoir is a quote from would not the ayatollahs move closer and closer to having Isaiah Berlin: “At crucial moments, at turning points, when nuclear weapons? Shultz replied: “Well, maybe. Or maybe factors appear more or less equally balanced, chance, we do something about it.” He fully understood the uses individuals and their decisions and acts, themselves not of American power. necessarily predictable — indeed seldom so — can determine On the left, Reagan still does not get the credit he the course of history.” deserves for winning the Cold War, nor does Shultz; This may have been Shultz’s tribute to Reagan, but it revisionists want to credit “history” or Shevardnadze and is a fair summary of Shultz’s plac e in contemporary especially Mikhail Gorbachev. But Margaret Thatc her was history. Born just after the First World War, he risked his basically right when she said “Ronald Reagan won the life as a Marine to see freedom prevail in the Second. Then Cold War without firing a shot.” Reagan’s most striking he returned time after time to Washington to help keep the achievement was spiritual and intellectual. He envisioned nation prosperous and free, and guide it through Cold War not “peaceful coexistence,” not endless accommodation, c onfrontations that required steely nerves and deep but victory. In 1988 Reaga n explained to Richard V. Allen, confidence in himself, his country, and the cause of his first National Security Adviser, “Here’s my strategy on freedom. He was blessed to live 100 years, but we were the Cold War: We win, they lose.” more blessed that at those “crucial moments and turning But a strategy needs to be implemented. To get there, points,” George Shultz was there again an d again. Reagan needed as his wingman someone who shared his Mr. Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the confidence in America , and who could turn that strategy Council on Foreign Relations, was an assistant secretary of state in into the everyday reality of diplomatic life. Who could the Reagan administration under Secretary George P. Shultz.

Even o ne dose of Covid vaccine lowers viral load and spread By Abigail Klein Leichman israel21c.org February 10 , 2021 New Israeli study bolsters emerging evidence that peop le over 60 who are fully vaccinated against Covid - Pfizer - BioNTech vaccine protects those who are 19 are less likely to transmit the coronavirus to others. immunized and those around them from Covid - 19. Data from two testing labs showed that vaccination Even after one dose of the Pfizer - BioNTech vacci ne, reduces the viral load by 1.6 to 20 times in individuals who people who become infected with Covid - 19 present a are positive for SARS - CoV - 2. much lower transmission risk, new Israeli research reveals. Taken t ogether, the two studies raise hopes that This is because the vaccine appears to lower the viral people who are vaccinated protect not only themselves but load four - fold for infections occurring 12 to 28 days after also those around them from developing serious the first of two doses, ac cording to a paper published symptoms of Covid - 19. online by a group supported by the Israel Science This may hasten Israel’s reaching herd immunity, Foundation’s KillCorona - Curbing Coronavirus Research which happens when a sufficient percen tage of a Program. population has immunity and gives indirect protection to The paper, which is not yet peer reviewed, was written those who aren’t immunized. by scientists from Technion - Israel Institute of Technology Herd immunity is an important question in Israel. a nd Maccabi Research Institute. Although the country has vaccinated more people per Conclusions were based on positive post - vaccination capita than any other country – 65.83 as of February 8 — data from Maccabi Healthcare Services, the second largest so me 30 percent of the population is under 16 and of Israel’s four national health maintenance organizations. therefore cannot be vaccinated for Covid - 19. This follows another Israeli study indicating that

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