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Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. 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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Talking to the Enemy Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia Dalia Dassa Kaye NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kaye, Dalia Dassa. Talking to the enemy : track two diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia / Dalia Dassa Kaye. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4191-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Conflict management—Case studies. 2. Arab-Israeli conflict—1993–—Peace. 3. Conflict management—South Asia. 4. Mediation, International. 5. Security, International. I. Title. JZ6368.K394 2007 956.05'3—dc22 2007028637 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover Design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph originated with a Smith Richardson Foundation research grant to explore the question of how unofficial regional secu- rity dialogues affect security perceptions and policy in regions defined by conflict. Do such dialogues affect adversarial relationships and, if so, how? What are the limits and dangers of such dialogues? The grow- ing importance of regional contexts and nonstate actors in addressing a multitude of conflicts has created a greater demand for unofficial track two security dialogues as a critical foreign policy tool. The appeal of unofficial dialogues is their ability to raise ideas and solutions that might not be possible in official circles, but that could over time influ- ence official thinking and, ultimately, policy. What seems unthinkable today may, through unofficial contacts, become the norm tomorrow. But such assumptions about the power of track two diplomacy have rarely been systematically assessed through empirical analysis. This work is an attempt to do so. Through an examination of regional security track two efforts in the Middle East and South Asia, this mono- graph considers the roles as well as the limits of such processes and offers ways in which project organizers and funders might assess vari- ous efforts. Such assessments can provide not only a better understand- ing of what these types of dialogues have or have not accomplished in the past, but also a framework for understanding and improving these efforts in the future. The findings and lessons of this work should apply not only to the Middle East and South Asia, but also to other regions struggling to resolve long-standing adversarial relationships. iii iv Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia This monograph expands and updates previous work the author has conducted in the area of track two diplomacy, including Rethink- ing Track Two Diplomacy: The Middle East and South Asia (Kaye, 2005) and “Track Two Diplomacy and Regional Security in the Middle East” (Kaye, 2001b). This work should be of interest to members of security policy communities in the United States and abroad as well as regional experts focusing specifically on the Middle East and South Asia. Academic researchers and teachers of courses on conflict resolution may also find the monograph useful. Finally, the work should be helpful to the many private foundations that fund regional track two efforts as they attempt to assess the returns on their investment. Comments are welcome and should be directed to the author ([email protected]). This monograph results from the RAND Corporation’s continu- ing program of self-initiated independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and develop- ment centers. RAND’s National Security Research Division (NSRD) oversaw the final stages of this research. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 703- 413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More informa- tion about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figure and Tables ................................................................ ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Rethinking Track Two Diplomacy ............................................ 1 Key Issues and Questions ......................................................... 1 The State of the Field .............................................................. 2 A Normative Framework .......................................................... 3 Defining Track Two ............................................................... 5 Applying Track Two ............................................................... 8 A Regional Focus..................................................................10 Historical Precedents .............................................................12 Comparing the Middle East and South Asia ..................................16 Roles for Track Two Dialogues..................................................21 Socialization of Participating Elites: Creating a Constituency for Regional Cooperation ................................................ 22 Filtering: Making Others’ Ideas Your Own ................................ 23 Transmission: Turning Ideas into New Policies ............................ 24 Limits of Track Two Dialogues..................................................25 CHAPTER TWO Regional Security Dialogues in the Middle East ..........................31 Introduction .......................................................................31 v vi Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia Overview of Dialogues .......................................................... 34 UCLA and the Institute
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